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华北科技学院毕业设计(论文)外文科技资料翻译Chinas Pathway to Low-carbon Development Abstract Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore Chinas current policy and policy options regarding the shift to a low-carbon (LC) development. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses both a literature review and empirical systems analysis of the trends of socio-economic conditions, carbon emissions and development of innovation capacities in China. Findings The analysis shows that a holistic solution and co-benet approach are needed for Chinas transition to a green and LC economy, and that, especially for developing countries, it is not enough to have only goals regarding mitigation and adaptation. Instead, a concrete roadmap towards a LC future is needed that addresses key issues of technology transfer, institutional arrangements and sharing the costs in the context of a global climate regime. In this light, it is argued that China should adopt an approach for low-carbon development centred on carbon intensity reduction over the next ten years. Originality/value The paper thus provides a unique summary, in English, of the arguments supporting Chinas current low-carbon innovation policies from one of the authors of this policy. Keywords:Carbon, Sustainable development, Environmental management, Government policy, China Paper type Research paper Climate change has become the most signicant environment and development challenge to human society in the twenty-rst century. Responding to climate change is the core task to achieving global sustainable development, both for today and for a rather long period of time from today. International negotiations on prevention of global warming and related actions not only concern the human living environment, but also directly impact the modernization process of developing countries. Although the process of global climate protection depends on the consensus of our scientic awareness, political wills, economic interests, societys level ofacceptance, as well as measures adopted, a low-carbon (LC) development path is, undoubtedly, the critical choice of future human development. The science basis of climate change and its extended political and economic implications Global warming of the climate system has become an unequivocal fact. According to a large amount of monitoring data, global average land surface temperature has risen 0.748C over the last century (IPCC, 2007a, b, c, d). And the rate of rising has been sped up. In the meantime, global average sea level has been constantly rising too. Global warming has posed a serious challenge to Chinas climate, environment and development. In the global context of climate change, Chinas climate and environment are changing too. For instance, in the last century, the land surface average temperature has witnessed an obvious increase; though the precipitation has not changed too much, its interdecadal variations and regional disparity have been big. In the last 50 years, there have also been major changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events (Editorial Board of Chinas National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2007). The IPCC (2007a, b, c, d) integrated assessment shows that since 1750, human activities have been a major cause of global warming, while in the last 50 years, most of the global warming is the consequence of human activities, with a probability of more than 90 per cent, in particular from the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions due to the human use of fossil fuels. It is forecast that before the end of the twenty-rst century, global warming will continue, and how much the temperature will rise depends on what actions humans will take. According the Third Working Group Report of the IPCC fourth Assessment (IPCC, 2007a, b, c, d), human actions to mitigate climate change are feasible, both economically and technologically. Actions to deploy key mitigation technologies in various sectors, adopting policy and administrative interference and shifting the development pathway could all contribute greatly to mitigation of climate change. With China becoming the worlds largest CO2emitter, China faces increasing pressure to reduce its emissions. Being a responsible country, China will take actions to tackle climate change. When developing its mitigation target, China will consider such factors as level ofevelopment, technology know-how, social impact, international image and a new international climate regime underpinned by fairness and effectiveness. China will move into a win-win development path to achieve climate protection, quality economic development and other related policy targets. To develop LC economy background, opportunities and challenges As illustrated above, systematic solutions are required to tackle climate change, due to the complexity of the global climate system as well as its coverage of broad social and economic issues. After nearly two decades exploration, human society has realized that in order to effectively mitigate and adapt to climate change, we have to fundamentally reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, which means that we have to achieve the shift to a LC future from the way we produce and consume to how global assets are allocated (including industries, technology, capitals and resources) and how they are transferred. From the perspective of the limited storage capacity of GHGs in the climate system as a global public good, both a high level of human wisdom and a new international climate regime to deal with market failure are required, which also demands the participation of all stakeholders and together they shall charter a new development pathway. Human society has to pay the economic prices to solve climate warming. Thus, the three exible “mechanisms” in the Kyoto Protocol ( joint implementation, emissions trading and clean development mechanism) demonstrate a meaningful experiment for the Annex I countries to decrease their emissions reduction costs. What is needed is to move forward from where we are now to explore a more universally applicable mechanism that would effectively allocate the resources among the key responsible stakeholders. The LC development path embodies an integrated solution strategy. It aims to build up a LC society through LC economic development, tries to achieve the restructuring of all the key elements discussed above and offers new opportunities for human society in response to climate change through collaborations. As a fundamental venue to coordinate social and economic development, guarantee energy security and respond to climate change, development of LC economy is gradually gaining the needed consensus from more and more countries. Though without a xed academic denition, the core of developing a LC economy is to establish a development pathway that has high-energy efciency, low-energy consumption and low emissions. Under a fair and effective international climate regime, the efciency of energy exploration, generation, transmission, transformation and use is expected to be increased greatly and energy consumption greatly reduced, so that the carbon intensity in energy supply for economic growth is dramatically reduced, along with the carbon emissions from energy consumption. Through increasing carbon sink and using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, the GHG emissions from fossil fuels that are hard to reduce can be offset. In the meanwhile, through the establishment of reasonable and fair technology transfer and nancial support mechanisms, developing countries can undertake the costs of shifting towards LC patterns while being at the lowest end of the value chain in the international trade structure. The perspectives of development value need to be changed in order to promote the transition of consumption towards a sustainable and LC future. What needs to be claried is that, due to the differences of various countries social and economic contexts, the starting points towards a LC future might vary, as might the pursued goals. For developed countries that are taking the lead to commit to reduction targets, their rst objective to develop a LC economy is to reduce emissions. For developing countries whose economies are still at a fast growing stage, their rst priority is development and their per capita energy consumption is expected to continue to grow. The objectives shall be multiple. At the current stage, it is hard to mainstream the climate change policies domestically. What is possible is to reduce energy intensity and increase carbon productivity in order to gradually decouple economic growth and carbon emissions. What is equally important is that there exist many uncertainties in development of LC economy, particularly for developing countries. Tremendous difficulties and barriers need to be overcome in the process. At the international level, the uncertainties of developing LC economy include: Costs and markets at this moment we could hardly be able to estimate the whole costs that are required to develop a LC economy. It is far from being as simple as calculating the direct costs of adopting LC technologies. It also takes time to establish LC technology and product markets, especially now, when the global nancial crisis has hit everyone hard and when no one can give a good estimate about when the world economy could turn around and recover; though many experts and scholars hold that the response to the long-term climate change could bring new opportunities to economic recovery (Stiglitz, 2009; Wang, 2008b). What makes the situation more complicated now is how the USA, China, India and other key countries would participate in the establishment of a LC market. Establishment of a fair international climate regime and mid- to long-term targets to tackle climate change the development of a LC economy also depends on the international climate negotiation process and its result, of which the most critical element is whether it will result in legally binding global emissions reduction targets and the corresponding mechanisms of technology transfer and nancial support, even if this was not established at Copenhagen. To date, even though some EU countries have achieved the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions, LC economy has not generated universally applicable, successful experiences; and what those experiences mean to developing countries still needs to be gured out and tested overtime. For developing countries, the difculties and barriers to developing a LC economy are obvious, including current stage of development, international trade structure, economic costs, inadequate market, technology diffusion system, institutional arrangement, incentive policy and management system. From the historic evolution of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in industrialized countries, most countries experienced successively the inverted U-shape curves of carbon intensity, per capita carbon emissions, and then total carbon emissions. But different countries or regions vary greatly in economic development level or per capita gross domestic product (GDP) relative to the carbon emissions peak. This shows that there does not exist a single, exact turning point between economic growth and carbon emissions. If you examine those countries or regions that have passed the carbon emissions pe ak, roughly 24-91 years, on average 55 years, are required between the peak of carbon emissions intensity and that of per capita carbon emissions. Some driving forces to reach different peaks have been shown in Figure 1 in terms of experience in the past and scenario analysis in the future. The point is, without strong mandatory emissions reduction measures and external support, developing countries will need relatively longer time to reach the peak of carbon emissions growth and then stabilize and decrease Strategic measures On the basis of the above-mentioned analysis, the LC path with Chinese characteristics shall also focus on gradually setting up “resource-efcient, environment-friendly and LC-oriented” society. Guided by LC development strategy and its targets, efforts shall be made to develop relevant institutional arrangements, improve management systems, stipulate development plans, accumulate experience from demonstrations and pilots, and push forward LC economic development in an orderly manner, so that a sustainable and LC future can be shaped for China. Four major aspects are the key starting points to structure a LC social and economy system: (1) Establish a legal and regulatory framework addressing climate change and improving the macro-management system. The legislative feasibility and legal model of “Law to Address Climate Change” shall be debated and articulated. Also, in the legislation process of other laws and regulations, articles related to response to climate change shall be included. For instance, a technical guideline of strategic environmental assessment shall include articles related to climate change impact assessment. A legal and regulatory framework of responding to climate change will gradually emerge. Owing to the fact that Chinas administrative authority in charge of climate change remains weak and lacks capability, rst, the Leading Group of the States Response to Climate Change and Energy Saving and Pollution Reduction Work shall play its full roles when a more exible and diverse departmental coordination mechanism is established; and the group shall put forward strategic measure recommendations in response to climate change. Second, capacity building shall be strengthened and more administrative resources shall be allocated, so that better preparation is made for the next round of government restructuring to further improve the administrative level of the government department in charge of climate change. (2) Establish long-acting mechanism framework of LC development and stipulate related LC development policies in an orderly manner. Institutional innovation is the key to embarking on a LC development path. China shall become more pragmatic in developing a long-term incentive mechanism and policy measures that are in favour of energy saving, environmental protection and climate protection, guided by the balanced development framework and achieve the LC transition at government and business levels. At this moment, many regions and cities have expressed their interest and enthusiasm toward LC development. As well as the complexity of LC economy and the diversity of models, related guidelines shall be rolled out to guide the macro policy and regulate the content, model, direction of development and assessment indicator system of a LC economy. Experiences and lessons from other countries can be examined and learned in order to move forward LC development in an orderly and healthy manner. Special planning and programs shall be developed at national level, and then some representative regions and cities, as well as some key sectors, can be selected for LC piloting purpose. When the market matures, LC markets shall be set up through regulating the pricing mechanism and stipulating scal and incentive policies. (3) Strengthen collaboration and establish a healthy LC technology system. Technological innovation is the core element in LC development. Government shall adopt integrated measures to offer a relaxed and favourable policy environment for business development and create and provide better institutional guarantees for technological innovation. As a result, the R&D and diffusion of high-energy efciency and LC emissions technologies can be strengthened in both production and consumption. A diverse LC technology system will be gradually built for energy saving and energy efciency, clean coal and clean energy, renewable energy and new energy, as well as carbon sinks. The level of commercialization will be improved. Thus, a strong technological foundation will be provided for LC transition and shift in the ways of economic growth. China shall also further strengthen international collaboration, not only through the climate-related international cooperation mechanism to import, absorb and adopt advanced technologies from other countries, but more importantly, through participating in the stipulation of related international sectoral energy efciency standards and standard of carbon intensity, as well as benchmarking. China could consider voluntary or mandatory benchmarking management to elevate some key LC technologies, equipment and products to international leadership level. (4) Establish collaboration mechanism with all stakeholders participation. Low-carbon development is not just for government or business; instead, it requires all related stakeholders as well as the whole societys participation. Owing to the fact that there exist some inadequacies in the general publics awareness of climate change, publicity, education and training are required in combination with policy incentives to transform the publics perception and thinking, increase the publics awareness on response to climate change and gradually reach consensus on focusing on LC consumption behaviours and models. Joint actions with all the stakeholders are needed to resist the potential risks from climate change. References: EIA (2008), International Energy Outlook, EIA, USDOE, Washington, DC. He, J. (2008), “Addressing climate change through developing low carbon economy”, Keynote Speech in Sino-Danish Forum on Climate Change, Beijing October 23. IEA (2008), World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA, Paris. IPCC (2007a), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, available at: www.ipcc.ch IPCC (2007b), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, available at: www.ipcc.ch IPCC (2007c), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, available at: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf IPCC (2007d), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basic, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Jiang, K. (2007), “A scenario research on Chinas greenhouse gas emissions”,International Climate Change Regime: A Study on Key Issues in China, China Environmental Sciences Press, Beijing, pp. 8-24. Stiglitz, J.E. (2009), “Three ways to global economic recovery”, available at: http:/news.sina.com.cn/pl/2009-01-13/082317033320.shtml Wang, Y. (2008a), “A low carbon path with Chinese characteristics”, Greenleaf, No. 8, pp. 46-52. Wang, Y. (2008b), Summary of Sino-Danish Forum on Climate Change: Not to Delay Climate Change Progress by Financial Crisis, available at: www.p5w.net/news/gjcj/200810/ t1981142.htm译文: 中国低碳发展的途径摘要:目的:这篇论文的是探索中国现存的政策和针对低碳发展政策的其他可选方向。 计划、方法论、方式:本论文用到了文献综述和实验系统分析了社会经济条件趋势的,碳的释放和中国创新能力发展。 调查结果:分析结果显示,中国绿色和低碳经济的过渡需要一个全面的解决方案和共同利益的方式,特别是对发展中国家,仅仅以缓解和适应去对待作为唯一目标是不足的,相反,技术转变的关键问题是需要一个对低碳未来具体的规划图,体制安排和分担在全球气候制度方面的费用。有鉴于此,有人认为中国应采取低碳发展的方针,未来十年围绕在降低碳强度上。 创意、价值:因此,本文作者之一用英文提供了论据支持中国目前的低碳技术创新的政策独特论点。 关键词:碳、可持续发展、环境管理、政府政策、中国 论文类型:研究型论文 气候变化已成为二十一世纪的人类社会最重要的环境和发展的挑战。应对气候变化是实现全球可持续发展的核心任务,既是为了当下也要考虑未来。防止全球变暖和相关的行动的谈判,不只是关注人类的生存环境,而且还直接影响到发展中国家的现代化进程。尽管全球气候保护的进程取决于我们的科学意识的共识,政治意愿,经济利益,社会的接受程度,以及采取的措施,低碳(LC)的发展道路,无疑是人类未来发展的关键选择。 气候变化及其延伸的政治和经济影响的科学依据 全球气候系统的变暖已经成为一个明确的事实。根据大量的监测数据,在过去一个世纪全球平均地表温度上升0.740C(IPCC,2007年A,B,C,D)。上升的速度已经加快。在此期间,全球平均海平面不断上升。全球变暖已经构成了对中国的气候,环境和发展的严峻挑战。在全球气候变化的背景下,中国的气候和环境正在发展变化。例如,在上个世纪,已经目睹了地表平均温度明显的增加,但降水并未改变太多,其年代变化和区域差距已经很大。在过去50年中,在极端天气和气候事件的频率和强度上也出现了重大变化(中国国家评估报告气候变化的编辑委员会,2007) 政府间气候变化专门委员会(2007年A,B,C,D)的综合评估显示,自1750年以来,人类活动是全球变暖的主要原因,而在过去50年中,全球气候变暖的大部分是与人类活动的后果,超过90,在特定的温室气体(GHG)因人类使用化石燃料排放的概率。据预测,二十一世纪结束之前,全球变暖将继续,气温将上升多少取决于什么将采取行动的人。根据IPCC第四次评估(“监理会”,2007年A,B,C,D),人类的行动,以减轻气候变化是可行的,既有经济上和技术上的第三个工作组的报告。行动部署在各个领域的关键减缓技术,采取的政策和行政干预,转移的发展途径,都可以大大有助于减缓气候变化。 随着中国成为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国,中国正面临着越来越大的压力,以减少其排放量。作为一个负责任的大国,中国将采取行动应对气候变化。当发展中国家的减排目标,中
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