中国二手车市场的发展外文文献原稿和译文

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1、外文文献原稿和译文原 稿Development of Used Car Market in China ABSTRACT Although still in its early development phase, rapid growth of auto ownership has also injected new vitality for used car market in China. Under the support of series policy, the used car market reveals leaping development character with q

2、ualified changes. It is essential to understand the new changes in the used car market. This paper conducted research on the new features of used car market in China to promote its development. Environment analysis showed that used car market will be strongly enhanced by the blooming of auto market,

3、 rapid GDP growth and policy support, which ex- perienced steady trade scale increase and structure optimization. The used car trade experienced steady trade scale in- crease and structure optimization. Along with the purchasing pattern changing, significant expansion of the second- hand car market

4、is imminent, even with hinder issues such as lack of integrity, evaluation criteria and after-service sys-tem, and incomplete policy and regulation. Several new features were identified, strong policy support, enlarging mar-ket scale and irradiation loop, remarkable concentration increase, increased

5、 status of brand used car, and enhanced trading service platform establishment. It is indicated that Chinas used car market is making the shift from subordinate position to one of the dominant positions in auto industry, which is expected into a high speed, up-going development passage in the future

6、. Keywords: Used Car Market; Development; New Features; China 1. Introduction With the rapid social and economical development, China has become one of the most important markets in the world for the automotive industry. In recent years, the scale of Chinas automotive after-sales service market cont

7、inues to increase 1. Analyzing from the policy, market, development potential and other aspects, the Annual Report on Automotive Industry in China (2010) found that, in the “Twelfth Five-Year” period, Chinas automotive after-sales service market will maintain an annual growth rate of about 8 percent

8、 by a conservative estimate, and reach up to about RMB252.3 billion Yuan in 2015 2. Contemporarily, the rapid growth of auto ownership has also injected new vitality for second-hand car market. The trading volume of the used car market rose from 370 thousand to 4.33 million from 2001 to 2011, with a

9、n an- nual increase beyond 30%. The average trading ration between used car and new car is 0.24, which indicates the growing proportion of used car in auto industry 3. In recent years, such operating models as used car brokers, used car auction and used car replacement have emerged in the market suc

10、cessively. The alteration of trading models provides new engines for the develop- ment of the used car market in China. It is estimated that the trade volume ratio between used and new car would reach 1:1 in the next ten years. However, Chinas used car trade market is still in low proportion in the

11、auto industry, even with its rapid growth. According to the experience of western ad- vanced countries, taking USA as an example, the bene- fits from used car sector accounts for 45% of the whole auto industry, and the average profit from one used car is around 20% 4. Under the support of series pol

12、icy, the used car market reveals leaping development character with qualified changes. From 2000, Chinas used car market experience high growth, and gradually became the major part of the auto industry. The used car market already made the shift from the subordinate position to one of the dominant p

13、o- sitions in the auto industry. It is vital to understand the new changes in the used car market. Thus this paper conducted research on the new environment of the used car market, probed into its new features, thus to further promote the development of the used car market in China. 2. Environment A

14、nalysis 2.1. Auto Market Status Analysis Due to the rapid development in auto industry, Chinas auto market is becoming the most important area for auto trade and manufacture. Fast expands was observed in Chinas auto industry. From 2002 to 2011, auto trade volume rose from 3.25 million to 18.51 billi

15、on, increase- ing almost 6 times, with 23.5% annual increment, shown in Figure 1. Note(s): Red section represents passenger car, yellow section represents commercial car, blue line represents increment for total car trade volume. Along with the growth in auto trade volume, car is popularized in ordi

16、nary family. According to the data from China Automotive Industry Association, civil car population increased from 18.02 million to 93.5 million, with averagely 17.4% increment per year, shown in Fig- ure 2. Consequently, the car volume per thousand people grew steadily in China, from 3.7 to 46.8 in

17、 2001 to 2011, increased 12.7 times, shown in Figure 3. According to the auto market development, Chinas auto market is in the massive popularization stage. In the stage, car vol- ume will keep fast increase until the car volume per thousand people exceeds 250. Usually, it will last 10 years. Due to

18、 the regional difference in income, popula- tion, economy, this stage may last longer in China. Ex- perts from State Information Center estimated that this stage may last until 2013, with 12% - 14% increment an- nually. Therefore, the ever growing car volume due to the popularization stage of auto m

19、arket, will provide more room and solid foundation for used car market develop- ment in China. Therefore, the ever growing car volume due to the popularization stage of auto market, will provide more room and solid foundation for used car market develop- ment in China. 2.2. Economy Environment Analy

20、sis Development of Auto market is positively related to economy development and peoples income 5. As the biggest population in the world, the market potential is enormous. Recently, China economy keeps steady and fast increase. Real GDP Per Capital increased from 1041$ in 2001 to 5432$ in 2011, with

21、 17.4% annual increment, shown in Figure 4. As residents income level is the key factor for auto population, the fast growth in income will transfer into higher demand increase in China auto market, which willFigure 1. Auto trade volume from 2002 to 2011.Figure 2. Civil car population in China in 20

22、01-2011. Figure 3. Car volume per thousand people in 2001-2011.Figure 4. Real GDP per capital in 2001-2011.enhance the development of used car market in China. In a relatively long period, the auto and used car demand will keep a vigorous stage. The State Development Center and Auto Engineering Asso

23、ciation estimated that the total vehicle demand in 2030 will be 32.43 million, with 8.8% annual increment 6, and the car volume per thousand people will exceed 100. This increase will stand for a relative long period (Table 1). 2.3. Policy Analysis Apart from consumer demand, several government poli

24、- cies and regulations have boosted the used-car market. The Administrative Measures on Used Cars, released in 2005, are the primary regulation governing the used-car market. The measures introduced a compe- tition mechanism that allows OEM-authorized auto dealerships to run used-car businesses. The

25、 measures also regulate different partiesincluding trading mar- kets, agents and operatorsand strengthen the ad- ministration of organizations that appraise the value of used cars. The Notice on Upgrading the Used-Car Trade Market was announced by the ministries of Commerce and Finance in July 2009.

26、 The circular aimed to improve the used-car industry. Initially, the PRC government selected 10 provinces and municipalitiesBeijing, Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Shandong, Shang- hai, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Zhejiangto receive fis- cal funding to conduct pilot programs that focused on the manage

27、ment and information on used-car transac-tions to improve transparency. The Auto Industry Revitalization Plan, released in 2009 by the State Council, calls for the establishment of a national appraisal and evaluation standards sys- tem and a temporary ownership registration system. The plan also cal

28、ls for adjusting the value-added tax rate on used car transactions and encourages dealer- ships to participate in vehicle replacement programs. The Twelfth Five-Year Plan encouraged consumer to purchase energy saving and environment vehicle. Se- ries vehicle subsidy and tax reduction on low emis- si

29、on and new energy vehicle were implemented, which have direct influence on the future used car market. There would be increase in low emission and new energy used car in the future 7. 3. Current Status of Used Car Market 3.1. Trade Scale Kept Steady Growth Used car market increased dramatically in C

30、hina from 2001. The trade volume rose from 0.37 million to 4.79 million in 2012, increased by 13 times. The average in- crement from 2001 to 2012 was 29.9% (Figure 5). The ratio for used car and new car increased from 0.16 to 0.23, averagely 0.24 from 2001 to 2011, nationwide (Figure 6). In some adv

31、anced area, like Beijing, the ratio already reached 1:1 in 2011. Along with the expansion of new car market, used car market was enhanced, cones- quently. It is estimated that the trade of used car and new car will come to 1:1 in 10 to 15 years in China. Consequently, the transaction money for used

32、car trade increased steadily, which rose from 13.2 Billion Yuan in 2001 to 263.6 Billion Yuan in 2012. The annual incre- ment was 33.7% (Figure 7). The proportion of used carFigure 5. Used car trade volume from 2001 to 2012.Figure 6. Ratio of used car and new car.market in auto industry increased st

33、eadily, with the av- erage proportion of 5.5% from 2004 to 2010 (Figure 8) 7. The growing used car market is becoming the most important part of auto industry, which provide the foun- dation for leaping development. 3.2. Used Car Trade Kept Optimized After years of rapid development, the trade struc

34、ture is optimizing. Along with the trade volume increase, saloon car gradually took major proportion in used car trade. After 2008, saloon car account for more than 50% of used car market share (Table 2). In the used car market, domestic brand car had the ab- solute dominant position, which accounts

35、 more than 95%. On the car age, even with decrease, used car in 3 - 10 years still took the leading position, which still had 75% share in 2011. Trade of used car below 3-year increased over the last few year, with 18.74% share in 2011 (Fig- ure 9). Obvious regional difference was observed in Chinas

36、 used car market. According to the statistics from China Automobile Dealers Association, used car trade concen- trated in the developed area, is shown in Table 3. The first fifth regions account for 55.14% for used car trade in China, while the first tenth regions account for 77.02%. However, slight

37、 decrease was observed in those developed regions. This was probably due to the high level of used car trade in previous years already reduced the market demand. For the less developed area, rapid development was observed. Even with low market share, auto market was driven by the fast economy growth

38、. The huge market potential was released, thus the used car trade increased very fast. Besides that, used car trade was mainly in local area. In 2010, local registered used car account for 88.27% of the total volume. This was due to the complex ownership transfer and registration procedure for cross

39、 regional transaction, and high cost. This had significant effect on rational circulation of used car.Figure 7. Used car transaction money from 2001 to 2012. Figure 8. Used car transaction money from 2001 to 2012.Figure 9. Brand and year feature for used car market. 3.3. Purchasing Pattern Changed m

40、illion. Indeed, as this trend intensifies, the used car segment will outstrip the new car segment in absolute terms as well. More specifically, given the current trend, almost 19 million used cars are expected to change hands in 2017. That translates into an impressive compounded annual growth rate

41、of over 30%. One important reason for this change is the purchasing pattern of Chinese consumers. On average, 60% of Chi- nese car owners replace their cars every three years much more frequent than other national car markets. This disposition is more apparent in the high-end segment. Here, automobi

42、le turnover is particularly strong due to fast-changing demands from wealthy individuals and a purchase pattern that closely correlates with their busi- nesses profitability. Cars that have barely been used enter the second-hand auto market, attracting new buyers in the process. Moreover, consumer a

43、ttitudes are changing. From be- ing viewed as mere status symbols, cars are now in- creasingly being bought for reasons of functionality and transportation. Additionally, as most people currently buy cars for their first time, they will not be as willing to spend a fortune on a new car. Especially a

44、s government policies are now helping car penetration deepen and spread to rural areas and lower-tier cities in China, where an estimated 700 million people live and purchasing power is much weaker. So, second-hand cars are becom- ing viable and desirable options for an increasing number of Chinese.

45、 With the increased supply of used cars to the auto market and the Chinese becoming more comfortable with the idea of second-hand car purchases, this segment is set to grow substantially in the coming years. Although there are some concerns, such as absence of trust between buyer and seller, as the

46、market becomes more established and formalized through authorized dealerships, this problem will likely diminish in the future. And despite governmental policies that largely block second-hand cars from first-tier city markets, they are more attractive options for Chinese living in other areas, espe

47、cially in poorer, rural areas and lower-tier cities. So, significant expansion of the second-hand car market is imminent and this creates many opportunities for used car trade and related companies 8. 4. New Features of Used Car Market 4.1. Issues of Used Car Market As one of the important parts of

48、auto market, used car market kept 20% - 30% increase annually. However, the used car market is still in the preliminary stage, com- pared to the advanced market in western countries. Sev- eral dominant issues were as follows. First, lack of integrity in used car market. The lack of trust between buy

49、er and seller currently remains a huge problem impeding the used car market in China. Chinese consumers, have few resources to help them understand the value of older vehicles. Used car broker often makes traps for consumer for high profit. There are quality, price and legal risk for consumers. And

50、few mechanics are experienced enough to value cars independently. Due to the lack of trust, many potential used car demands cannot transfer into real market demand. Some foreign automakers are hoping to address this problem by setting up programs to sell certified pre-owned cars with war- rantee pro

51、tection. As the used car market continues to evolve, this issue would be solved. Second, lack of used car evaluation criteria. Currently, there was no systematic used car value assessment crite- ria and residual value releasing system. On the national side, no rule proclaimed for used car evaluation

52、 and value assessment. In practical used car trade, car evalua- tion is mostly subjective evaluation, only few companies have specialized equipment. Thus the evaluation result depends on the experience and responsibility of estimator, which weaken the fairness and rationality. When residual value as

53、sessment, simple average life span depreciation were used, without rational basis and reference, which reduce the fairness of value measurement. Third, lack of after-sell service systems. The used car market only had the function for industry and commer- cial bureau verification, and registration, d

54、id not have essential service function, facility and service method. One package service has been provided in new car mar- ket, but not in used car market. This is far more behind advanced countries. Due to the lack of proper service system, the confidence of consumer was affected, and the expansion

55、 of used car market was restricted. Fourth, incomplete policies and regulations for used car market. Access restriction is quite low in China, which result in low technical ability, poor management and irregular transaction, and weaken consumers confi- dence. The tax difference for different trade b

56、odies for broker (0%), company (2%), auction (4%), and trade market (0%), result in chaos and unfairness in used car market 8,9. There is no systematic used car evaluation and assessment criteria. The irrational and subject evalu- ation and assessment result from different personnel re- duced the re

57、al indication on car real value, which restrict the market development. A rational evaluation system should be established nation-wide. 4.2. New Feature of Used Car Market in China 1) Strong policy support for upper development In recent years, policy support is the most important booster for used c

58、ar market. Series direct or indirect pol- icy has been released, and facilitate an favorable envi- ronment for used car market. Encouraging used car mar- ket development has been placed in government work report and plan, which confirmed the basic macro-policy direction. The policy support has been

59、directly put into practice on the used car trade market, which already makes the shift from outside environment support to direct fostering on used car trade market. The most important one is the Demonstration Project of Used Car Trade Market Up- grading and Reconstruction. The project was executed

60、by the Ministry of Commerce and Finance. 40 used car trade markets were included in ten provinces. The emphasis was on the market environment and service facility, and management system. Series technical and operational supports were provide by the government. Information technology was widely used

61、to promote national infor- mation interconnection and interaction, thus to build the foundation on national market and circulation. The application of these policies, were not only the support from government, but also the concept education for the whole used car trade and circulation industry. The

62、aim was to reform and upgrade the mode of used car trade, enforce scale operation, and promote cross-re- gional used car transaction 8,10. 2) Expansion of market scale and irradiation loop After several years of development, the used car mar- ket in the key cities as the core is becoming the basictr

63、end direction for the nationwide integrated market. Due to the regional discrepancy in China used car market throughout the provinces, the gradient difference in used car consumer can be achieved for the market develop- ment. This was confirmed by the experience in devel- oped countries. The first p

64、riority is to taking advantage of radiation and leading role of core cities, to form regional used car market. With the market development, the seamless connection between regional market can be achieved. Then, the used car transfer gradient can be established from developed area to less developed a

65、rea, thus to form the unified national market. The used car in the developed area is transferring to the less developed area, along with the demand changing from newly-increased to renew. This will be one of the most important features for Chinas used car market. 3) Remarkable concentration increase in used car trade According to the experience in used car market in de- veloped countries, large-scale used car trade is always accompany with the arising and developing of wholesale. For Chinas market, the used car wholesale mainly to auction is gradually arising, which will be one of