操作管理-决策工具

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1、 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 2 Operations ManagementDecision-Making ToolsModule A 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 3 Outline The Decision Process in Operations Fundamentals of Decision Making Decision Tables Decision Making Under Risk Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Decision Trees A More Com

2、plex Decision Tree 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 Learning Objectives State the decision process Describe decision tables and See a way of reducing, or at least understanding, uncertainty that surrounds business plans and actions 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 6 Steps to Good Decisions Define problem &

3、influencing factors Establish decision criteria Select decision-making tool (model) Identify & evaluate alternatives using decision-making tool (model) Select best alternative Implement decision 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 7 Advantages of Using Models They are less expensive and disruptive than expe

4、rimenting with the real world system They allow operations managers to ask “What if” types of questions They are built for management problems and encourage management input They force a consistent and systematic approach to the analysis of problems They require managers to be specific about constra

5、ints and goals relating to a problem They can help reduce the time needed in decision making 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 8 Limitations of Models They may be expensive and time-consuming to develop and test They are often misused and misunderstood (and feared) because of their mathematical complexity

6、 They tend to downplay the role and value of nonquantifiable information They often have assumptions that oversimplify the variables of the real world 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 9 决策过程The Decision-Making Process问题Problem决策Decision计量分析Quantitative Analy逻辑Logic历史资料Historical Data行销研究Marketing Researc

7、h科学分析Scientific Analysis模式Modeling计质分析Qualitative Analysis感情Emotions 直观Intuition个人经验和激励Personal Experience and Motivation谣言Rumors 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 10 问题的元素Elements of a Problem 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 11 决策树Decision trees决策表Decision tables呈现决策问题解决的方法 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 12 决策论

8、Fundamentals of Decision Theory有三种决策模式:在确定环境下作决策Decision making under certainty在风险下作决策Decision making under risk在不确定环境下作决策Decision making under uncertainty条件Terms:方案Alternative: course of action or choice状况State of nature: an occurrence over which the decision maker has no control决策树的符号Symbols used

9、in decision tree: o决策点A decision node from which one of several alternatives may be selected决策状况A state of nature node out of which one state of nature will occur 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 状况States of Nature方案Alternatives State 1 State 2Alternative 1 Outcome 1 Outcome 2Alternative 2 Outcome 3 O

10、utcome 4决策表Decision Table 替代方案低中高小型设备$10 $10 $10中型设备$7 $12 $12大型设备(4) 2 16报酬表 确定环境下的决策替代方案低中高小型设备$10 $10 $10中型设备$7 $12 $12大型设备(4) 2 16 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 16 概率性决策Probabilistic decision situation不同状况的概率性决策States of nature have probabilities of occurrence选择最大的金钱期望回报Select alternative with lar

11、gest expected monetary value (EMV) Average return for alternative If decision were repeated many times在有风险下进行决策Decision Making Under Risk 不确定环境下的决策替代方案低中高小型设备$10 $10 $10中型设备$7 $12 $12大型设备(4) 2 16小中取大(10)大中取大平均值或Laplace最大遗憾中取最小 替代方案低中高小型设备$10 $10 $10中型设备$7 $12 $12大型设备(4) 2 16小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Lapla

12、ce最大遗憾中取最小 替代方案低中高小型设备$10 $10 $10中型设备$7 $12 $12大型设备(4) 2 16小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中取最小平均数平均数平均数 最大遗憾值取最小替代方案低中高小型设备$10 $10 $10中型设备$7 $12 $12大型设备(4) 2 16小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中取最小10-10, 10-7, 10+4 12-10, 12-12, 12-2 16-10 16-1216-16 替代方案低中高小型设备$10 $10 $10中型设备$7 $12 $12大

13、型设备(4) 2 16小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中取最小(4)最大遗憾值取最小0 2 63 0 414 10 0 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 22EMV A V P VV P V V P V V P Vi ii i N N( ( )( ) ( ) ( )= N=S *= * + * + + *11 1 2 2 LPayoffProbability of payoffAlternative iEMV方程式Expected Monetary Value Equation 1998 by Prentice Hall, In

14、c. 23 以图解进行决策Graphical display of decision process问题解决Used for solving problems With 1 set of alternatives & states of nature Decision tables can be used also With several sets of alternatives & states of nature (sequential decisions) Decision tables cannot be used EMV is criterion used most often 决

15、策树Decision Trees 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 24 应用决策树来解决问题Analyzing Problems with Decision Trees问题的定义Define the problem绘决策树Structure or draw the decision tree决定不同的决策概率Assign probabilities to the states of nature计算个别状况的回报Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of alternatives and states of nat

16、ure计算它的投资回报率Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values for each state-of-nature node 1998 by Prentice Hall, Inc. 25 12 State 1State 2State 1State 2Alternative 1Alternative 2Decision Tree 决策树替代方案低(.3)中(.5)高(.2)小型设备$10 $10 $10中型设备$7 $12 $12大型设备(4) 2 16 =0.3x10+10 x0.5+10 x0.2=100.3x7+0.5x

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