战略分析报告摩根斯坦利英文

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1、Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress Stephen J.GirskyJanuary 2004DisclosuresAnalyst CertificationAnalyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not

2、 received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report:Stephen J.Girsky.Important US Regulartory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley&Co.Incorpor

3、ated(“Morgan Stanley”).As of November 28,2003,Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1%or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report:Delphi,General Motors,Goodyear Tire&Rubber,Johnson Controls,Magna Intl Inc.,TBC and Tower Automotive.Within the last 12 m

4、onths,Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of DaimlerChrysler AG,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Standard Motor Products and Tenneco.Within the last 12 months,Morgan Stanley,Morgan Stanley or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from After

5、market Technology,American Axle and Mfg.,BorgWarner Inc.,DaimlerChrysler AG,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Standard Motor Products,Superior Industries,Tenneco,Tower Automotive and Visteon Corporation.In the next 3 months,Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment ba

6、nking services from Aftermarket Technology,American Axle and Mfg.,ArvinMeritor,AutoNation,Borg Warner Inc.,DaimlerChrysler AG,Dana Corp.,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Genuine Parts Co.,Goodyear Tire&Rubber,Johnson Controls,Lear Corp.,Lithia Motors,Magna Intl Inc.,Standard Motor Products,Superior Indust

7、ries,Tenneco,Tower Automotive,United Auto Group and Visteon Corporation.The research analysts,strategist,or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of the research report have received compensation based upon various factors,including quality of research,investor client feedb

8、ack,stock picking,competitive factors,firm revenues and investment banking revenues.Morgan Stanley&Co.Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Aftermarket Technology,Delphi,Dura Automotive,Ford,General Motors,Magna Intl.,TBC and Tower Automotive.Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of Decemb

9、er 31,2003)(Continued)Coverage Universe Investment Banking Client(IBC)Stock Rating CategoryCount%of totalCount%of total IBC%of Rating CategoryOverweight592322413841Equal-Weight856462874634Underweight402229816Total1,850 626DisclosuresData include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings.For d

10、isclosure purposes(in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements),we note that Overweight,our most positive stock rating,most closely corresponds to a buy recommendation;Equal-weight and Underweight most closely correspond to neutral and sell recommendations,respectively.However,Overweight,Equal-wei

11、ght,and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy,neutral,and sell but represent recommended relative weightings(see definitions below).An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Investment B

12、anking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.Analyst Stock RatingsOverweight(O or Over)-The stocks total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analysts industry(or industry teams)coverage u

13、niverse,on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12-18 months.Equal-weight(E or Equal)-The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analysts industry(or industry teams)coverage universe,on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12-18 months.Underweight(U or Under

14、)-The stocks total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analysts industry(or industry teams)coverage universe,on a risk-adjusted basis,over the next 12-18 months.More volatile(V)-We estimate that this stock has more than a 25%chance of a price move(up or down)of more than 2

15、5%in a month,based on a quantitative assessment of historical data,or in the analysts view,it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years.Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile(unless ot

16、herwise noted).We note that securities that we do not currently consider more volatile can still perform in that manner.Unless otherwise specified,the time frame for price targets included in this report is 12 to 18 months.Ratings prior to March 18,2002:SB=Strong Buy;OP=Outperform;N=Neutral;UP=Under

17、perform.For definitions,please go to Industry ViewsAttractive(A).The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be attractive vs.the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.In-Line(I).The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry cover

18、age universe to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.Cautious(C).The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe with caution vs.the relevent broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.Other Important DisclosuresFor a discus

19、sion,if applicable,of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achieving these targets,please refer to the latest relevant published research on these stocks.Research is available throught your sales representative or on Client Link

20、at and other electronic systems.This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice.It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of person who receive it.The securities discussed in this report may be suitable for all investors.Morgan

21、Stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies,and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser.The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investors individual circumstances and objectives.This report

22、 is not an offer to buy or sell any security or to participate in any trading strategy.Morgan Stanley,Morgan Stanley DW Inc.,affiliate companies and.or their employees may have investments in securities or derivatives of securities of companies mentioned in this report,and may trade them in ways dif

23、ferent from this discussed in this report.Derivatives may be issued by Morgan Stanley or associated persons.(Continued)DisclosuresMorgan Stanley is involved in many businesses that may relate to companies mentioned in this report.These businesses include specialized trading,risk arbitrage and other

24、proprietary trading,fund management,investment services and investment banking.Morgan Stanley makes every effort to use reliable,comprehensive information,but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete.We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report chang

25、e apart from when we intend to discontinue research coverage of subject company.Reports prepared by Morgan Stanley research personnel are based on public information.Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by,and may not reflect information known to,professionals in other Mor

26、gan Stanley business areas,including investment banking personnel.The value of and income from your investments may vary because of changes in interest rates or foreign exchange rates,securities prices or market indexes,operational or financial conditions of companies or other factors.There may be t

27、ime limitations on the exercise of options or other rights in your securities transactions.Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized.This publication is disseminated in Japan by Morgan Stanley J

28、apan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley Nippon Securities Limited;in Singapore by organ Stanley Dean Witter Asia(Singapore)Pte.,regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore;in Australia by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Australia Limited A.B.N.67 003 734 576,a licensed dealer,which accepts responsibility

29、 for its contents;in certain provinces of Canada by Morgan Stanley Canada Limited,which has approved of,and has agreed to take responsibility for,the contents of this publication in Canada;in Spain by Morgan Stanley,S.V.,S.A.,a Morgan Stanley group company,which is supervised by the Spanish Securiti

30、es Markets Commission(CNMV)and states that this document has been written and distributed in accordance with the rules of conduct applicable to financial research as established under Spanish regulations;in the United States by Morgan Stanley&Co.Incorporated and Morgan Stanley DW Inc.,which accept r

31、esponsibility for its contents;and in the United Kingdom,this publication is approved by Morgan Stanley&Co.International Limited,solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.Private U.K.investors should obtain the advice of their Morgan Stanley&Co.Internationa

32、l Limited representative about the investment concerned.The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners.Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy,completeness,or timeliness of the data they prov

33、ide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data.The Global Industry Classification Standard(GICS)was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P.This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted,sold or redistributed without the written consent

34、of Morgan Stanley.Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.OverviewAuto Outlook:Same problems;Less of themGlobal Dilemma:Most participants spending for growth yet the industry does not grow.Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery.Competitive pre

35、ssures are likely to remain difficult.Weaker dollar could level provide some offset.Higher rates create risk of weaker demand,weaker mix and lower finance company earnings.Big Three opportunity:Actual quality is better than perceived quality.Global Light Vehicle Sales:Slow GrowthCAGR 1.2%Source:LMCJ

36、.D.Power&Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Sales Forecasts:2003-2004Source:Global Insight&Morgan Stanley Research*Note forecasts are derived from Global Insight(in MM units)2003E2004E%ChngNorth America16.716.80.6%Western Europe14.114.20.7%Japan5.65.71.8%Korea*1.51.52.7%South America2.82.93.6%India*0.80.

37、913.5%China1.92.425.0%Global Light Vehicle Sales ForecastU.S.Sales16.7mm UnitsFY03E16.8mm UnitsFY04ESource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchJapanese SAAR5.6mm UnitsFY03E5.7mm UnitsFY04ESource:Morgan Stanley ResearchWestern European SAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource:Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Excess

38、 Capacity at 25%-30%or 20mm unitsSource:Autofacts&Morgan Stanley ResearchCapEx/D&A FY2003E:OEMs Spending for GrowthSource:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research*Adjusted to fit scale0%50%100%150%200%250%KiaHyundaiNissanBMWMazdaHondaMitsubishiRenaultFordVWDCXPSAFIATToyotaGMZero Sum GameGlobal Dilemma:M

39、ost participants are spending for growth,yet the industry does not grow.Slow growth&excess capacity suggest deflation/revenue pressures are likely to continue.Not everybody can be a winner.Winners will be low cost producers who deliver a good product that consumers are willing to pay for.Modest Dema

40、nd GrowthDemand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery:Auto sales did not weaken materially in the most recent recession and thus,significant pent-up demand was never created.The number of off-lease vehicles is falling sharply fewer consumers are being forced back to a dealer to buy

41、 or lease a new vehicle.Extended financing terms are likely to prolong vehicle turnover.Economic conditions appear mixed.Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line DemandSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchVehicle Sales1986-2004Ey=163.56x+13712R2=0.405912,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,0001986 1988 1990 1992 199

42、4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004E(in 000 units)TroughPeak20022003Trendline Growth 1.0%2004ELight Vehicle Sales Cycle:Trough to TroughSource:R.L.Polk,Global Insight&Morgan Stanley ResearchDurationMagnitudeStandardStd.Dev.Cycle(yrs)(units)HighLowMean Deviationas%of Mean1961-1966655,097 10,8856,8729,1831,547

43、16.8%1967-1969331,767 11,35210,14710,5896646.3%1970-1974561,563 14,20110,52912,3131,42511.6%1975-1981790,150 14,96610,71012,8791,66012.9%1982-199110139,134 15,79610,32613,9131,96014.1%1992-2004E13203,398 18,08912,79415,6461,59810.2%Weighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs.Sales1 Year Lead Correlation 77.

44、6%Source:Polk&Morgan Stanley ResearchOff Lease Vehicles Begin to DeclineSource:Manheim&Morgan Stanley ResearchFewer Consumers Being Forced Back to the Dealerships2,8903,2753,4523,3032,7652,3832,0002,4002,8003,2003,600200020012002200320042005385177(149)(538)(382)Average Maturity of Vehicle Loans(mont

45、hs)Source:Federal Reserve Board&Morgan Stanley Research30.0040.0050.0060.0070.00Jun-71Jun-74Jun-77Jun-80Jun-83Jun-86Jun-89Jun-92Jun-95Jun-98Jun-01Taking Longer to Establish Consumer EquitySource:FRB&Morgan Stanley Research($10,000)($5,000)$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000048121620242832364

46、044485256Payment MonthsEquity Value1.9%72 mnths-domestic0.0%60 mnths-domestic0.0%36 mnths-domesticPos.Equity in 44 mnthsPos.Equity in 33 mnthsPos.Equity in 16 mnthsEconomic Conditions Better than they were,but still not robustSource:CPI&Morgan Stanley ResearchPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03Interest

47、RatesConsumer ConfidenceGasoline PricesUsed Car PricesEmploymentAffordability Near 25 Year BestNumber of Weeks of Income to Purchase a VehicleSource:FRB&Morgan Stanley ResearchIntense CompetitionCompetitive pressures are likely to remain difficult:Capacity growth to continue in 2004.Pricing is likel

48、y to remain difficult although a weak dollar may provide a modest offset.Market share pressures to continue as well.NA Capacity Additions,Despite Flat Sls OutlookSource:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80=100,000 unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)

49、18020030Net Increase Of 853,000 Units or Roughly 5.1%of NA sales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai 2356Excess Capacity&More Is On The WayEvery 1%Pt.of Market Share Translates into$1.0bn in Profits853,000 Units of Added Capacity is 5.1%of NA Capacity,or$5bn in Pretax ProfitsNA Pretax ProfitBig Three

50、FY03E(in MM)$1,971Source:Morgan Stanley Research EstimatesRevenue Pressures Worst Since 1970sNew Car CPI vs.Domestic Light Vehicle SalesSource:CPI&Morgan Stanley ResearchY/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPISource:CPI&Morgan Stanley Research-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Ja

51、n-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03Price Reductions Pressure ManufacturersEvery 1%Decline in Prices is Worth-$1.0bn at GM-$850mm at Ford-$550mm at DCXSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchBig Three Market Share Continues to Slide76.0%60.2%61.7%Every 1%Point of Share is Worth Roughly$1bn in

52、 ProfitSource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchMarket Share Winners/Losers FY03Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchFY03Gainers%Pts of ShrLosers%Pts of ShrToyota0.8%Ford-0.7%Honda0.7%Mitsubishi-0.5%Nissan0.4%General Motors-0.4%Hyundai0.2%Chrysler-0.3%Volvo0.2%Volkswagen-0.2%Big Three Share of Sales

53、 by Segment:FY-03 vs.FY-02Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley Research-5.0%-4.5%-2.6%-1.9%-1.0%5.0%7.9%-8.0%-4.0%0.0%4.0%8.0%MinivanSport W agonLuxury CarMiddle SUVSmall PickupSmall SUVLuxury SUVUS Dollar per Euro:Jan 03-PresentSource:FactSet&Morgan Stanley Research$1.00$1.05$1.10$1.15$1.20$1.25$1.301/1/

54、20032/1/20033/1/20034/1/20035/1/20036/1/20037/1/20038/1/20039/1/200310/1/200311/1/200312/1/20031/1/2004U.S.Dollar per EuroJapanese Yen vs.U.S.DollarSource:FactSet&Morgan Stanley Research100110120130 Jan-99 Nov-99 Sep-00Jul-01May-02Mar-03 Strength at 102 per US$Weakness at 134 per US$Strength at 109

55、per US$Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity:YTD 03Source:Company Data&Morgan Stanley ResearchNote:*Includes Acura,Infiniti,Lexus YTD-03Imp%Dom%OEM*ImportDomesticOEM Totalof Totalof TotalToyota629,547 935,619 1,565,166 40%60%Honda271,004 880,637 1,151,641 24%76%Nissan235,201 428,380 663,581 35%65%YTD-0

56、3Import Domestic Weighted AvgBased on Every 1 OEM*Content Content Content20000Move EqualsToyota100%24%55%$10,914$93Honda100%3%26%$5,165$44Nissan100%20%48%$9,671$82Weaker Dollar Could Help a LittleSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchCorrelations Yen/$vs.CPI New CarTime FrameCorrelationJan-81 through May-95

57、-91.1%Jun-95 through Oct-032.8%Global Operating Margins FY02 Source:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research*Morgan Stanley EstimatesExcluding Pension&OPEB Expense for the Big ThreePorscheNissanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat16.4%10.6%8.9%8.4%8.1%6.1%5.7%5.0%4.7%4.0%3.8%1.7%1.8%-6.

58、2%Higher Rates Could be a NegativeHigher rates create risk of weaker demand,weaker mix and lower finance company earningsExtended terms suggest longer replacement rates.Every 1%increase in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth$730-750 per vehicle.Auto Finance Terms:Fall 2001 vs.NowSource:FRB&Morg

59、an Stanley ResearchMonthlyAvg AmtMonthlyLoan to Impl PriceAPRMaturity Financed PaymentValueof VehicleAug-016.41%57.68 22,591$($456)91.26%24,754$Sep-015.42%57.20 23,049$($458)92.07%25,034$Aug-022.17%59.44 26,208$($465)96.28%27,221$Sep-022.29%58.40 26,396$($478)96.25%27,424$Oct-022.62%57.24 26,232$($4

60、88)95.86%27,365$Nov-023.41%57.16 26,266$($498)95.27%27,570$Apr-032.51%60.06 27,540$($488)97.00%28,392$May-032.40%60.74 27,920$($489)97.33%28,686$Jun-032.93%62.43 26,945$($466)96.82%27,830$Jul-033.28%62.68 26,129$($454)95.18%27,453$Aug-033.56%63.00 25,407$($443)93.38%27,208$Sep-033.81%63.24 25,663$($

61、449)93.79%27,362$Oct-033.92%63.52 26,067$($455)93.57%27,858$Nov-033.93%62.86 26,306$($464)93.72%28,069$GMAC/FMCC Borrowing CostsSource:FRB&Morgan Stanley ResearchGMACFMCC5 Yr Treasury2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%1Q963Q961Q973Q971Q983Q981Q993Q991Q004Q001Q013Q011Q023Q021Q033Q03Big 3 Opportunity:Actual

62、Quality is Better than Perceived Quality-80.0-60.0-40.0-20.00.020.040.0MercuryInfinitiBuickLincolnChryslerLexusPorscheOldsmobileSaabAcuraSubaruToyotaCadillacNissanJeepSuzukiHondaFordMazdaChevrolet/GeoJaguarPontiacSaturnDodgeIsuzuBMWAudiHyundaiMitsubishiMercedesVolvoVolkswagenKiaRange RoverActual-Per

63、ceived Quality GapActual quality perceived quality=share opportunitySource:JD Power,CNW&Morgan Stanley ResearchThe Big Three:Positives&NegativesEach Company Faces Unique Challenges:GM has operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fixed legacy costs.Fords share is likely t

64、o remain under pressure.While earnings and cost cutting have been strong,cash flow needs to catch up.DCX continues to struggle with its product line.Quality issues,both perceived(Chrysler)and actual(Mercedes)continue to linger.Big Three Relative Stock Performance:2003Source:FactSet&Morgan Stanley Re

65、search60.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.01/2/20032/2/20033/2/20034/2/20035/2/20036/2/20037/2/20038/2/20039/2/200310/2/200311/2/200312/2/2003GMFDCXSPXGeneral MotorsGM still appears to have a variable cost advantage vs.F&DCX and a fixed cost disadvantage.GMs aggressive funding of pension and healthcare

66、have helped to narrow the fixed cost disadvantage.Significant new product launches give GM its best chance of gaining share/reducing incentives in years.GM is going into 2004 with above average inventory.Finance company earnings are likely to decline due to higher interest rates and lower mortgage refinancing activity.GM Market Share35.5%28.0%28.4%Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchU.S.Healthcare&Pension Cost/Unit FY03Source:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research$1,134$601$1,159$814$889$740$1,