项目组合管理训练英文版

Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊伟李俊伟 November 2002Beijing项目管理者联盟项目管理者联盟,MYPM.NETTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee2Contentn Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)n Portfolio Management in Financial Marketn Overview of PPM n PPM,Process and TechniquesTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee3The Emergence of Project Portfolio Managementn 1952,Modern Portfolio Theory(MPT),Harry Markowitz,Journal of Finance,Portfolio Selectionn 1990,Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize,dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial marketsn 1981,F.Warren McFarian,Portfolio Approach to Information Systems,HBR,to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and management of IT projects.n 1990s,a broader use of ideas of portfolio management n 1998,John Thorp,The Information Paradox.Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.n Present,portfolio management as central elements of good investment managementTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee4Portfolio Management,the overall pictureFocus(Strategic Planning)Source:PM Solutions,Portfolio Management,Dianne BridgesSelect(Portfolio Management)Manage(Project Management)TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee5Contentn Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)n Portfolio Management in Financial Marketn Overview of PPM n PPM,Process and TechniquesTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee6The Old Philosophy about Portfoliou Dont put all your eggs in one basket.uRisk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings.TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee7Return and Risk in Financial Marketexpected returnstandard deviation(%)capital appreciationgrowth of income0 6 12 18 24 30 3620181614121086420incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernment bondslong-termcorporate bondslarge company stockssmallcompanystocksstabilityof principalTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee8 ixRExREiniiiportfolio security in invested proportion the where 1The Role of Combining SecuritiesuThe expected return of a portfolio is a weighted average of the component expected returns.The Role of Combining Securities10baabbabbaapxxxx 222222 baiixabiip and betweent coefficien ncorrelatio stock of deviation standard stock in invested portfolio of proportion variance portfolio where 2two-securityportfolio risk=riskA+riskB+interactiverisk niix11,uThe total risk of a portfolio comes from thevariance of the components and from the relationships among the components.n.org .TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee10The Role of Combining Securitiesexpected returnrisk betterperformanceu A portfolio dominates all others if no other equally risky portfolio has a higher expected return,or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk.u The point of diversification is to achieve a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee11The Efficient Frontier:Optimum Diversification of Risky Assetsexpected returnrisk(standard deviation of returns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficient frontiernThe optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given returnnThe optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontierTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee12The Efficient Frontier vs Naive Diversificationu As portfolio size increases,total portfolio risk,on average,declines.After a certain point,however,the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.total riskNon-diversifiablerisknumber of securitiesu Naive diversification is the random selectionof portfolio components without conducting any serious security analysis.TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee13Risk Reduction with DiversificationNumber of SecuritiesSt.DeviationMarket RiskUnique RiskTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee14n Market or systematic risk:risk related to the macro economic factor or market indexn Unsystematic or firm specific risk:risk not related to the macro factor or market indexn Total risk=Systematic+UnsystematicComponents of RiskTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee15Two-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations =113%8E(r)St.Dev12%20%=.3 =-1 =-1TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee16n Relationship depends on correlation coefficientn-1.0 +1.0n The smaller the correlation,the greater the risk reduction potentialn If=+1.0,no risk reduction is possiblePortfolio Risk/Return,Correlation EffectsTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee17Structuring a Portfolio:Asset Allocationattitudetoward riskneed forreturnrealizedreturnand riskwith thepassageof timestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividual choice asset class mix investment resultsTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee18Contentn Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)n Portfolio Management in Financial Marketn Overview of PPM n PPM,Process and TechniquesTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee19What is project portfolio managementn Portfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifying opportunities:assessing the organizational fit;analyzing the costs,benefits,and risks;and developing and selecting a portfolio.n The art of project portfolio management is:doing the right thing,selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee20Portfolio Management is:n Defining goals and objectives clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achieven Understanding,accelerating,and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something elsen Identifying,eliminating,minimizing,and diversifying risk select a mix of investments that will avoid undue risk,will not exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels,and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impactsn Monitoring portfolio performance understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goals and objectivesn Achieving a desired objective have the confidence that the desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are madeTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee21Portfolio Management is Notn Doing a series of project specific calculations and analyses,such as return on investment,benefit-cost analysis,net present value,payback period,rate of return,and then adjusting them all to account for risk.these are project specific.n Collecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a report that the organization hopes will satisfy some organizational reporting requirement.TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee22The benefits of Portfolio Managementn Having a structure in place to select the right projects and immediately remove the wrong projectsn Placing resources where it matters,reducing wasteful spendingn Linking portfolio decisions to strategic direction and business goalsn Establishing logic,reasoning,and a sense of fairness behind portfolio decisionsn Establishing ownership amongst the staff by involvement at the right levelsTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee23Contentn Emergence of Project Portfolio Management(PPM)n Portfolio Management in Financial Marketn Overview of PPM n PPM,Process and TechniquesTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee24Project Portfolio Management,Process&Technique n Four stepsn Project Evaluation Matrixn Evaluation Criteria n ExamplesTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee25Step 1:Define the Portfolion First,establish the overall portfolio mission.This mission statement will be used to initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio.n The mission statement can be simple,like:The Intranet Portfolio covers all projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.org .TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee26Step 2:Gather the Projectsn Now,gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portfolio.n This may not be the list you already have.Some projects,including duplicate efforts,may be underway in other parts of the organization.TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee27Step 3:Begin Weedingn Once the project list is established,begin weeding the list down.Remove projects that:Are duplicate efforts.Here is an opportunity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project.Do not meet the mission area.Some projects may be under your wing but do not fit in the mission area.Remove them from your portfolio and place them elsewhere.TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee28Step 4:Begin Evaluatingn Once the portfolio list is set,begin evaluating each project to determine what the overall portfolio will look like.n Using the four-quadrant matrix here,evaluate the projects against two major criteria:What are the potential risks in implementing this project?What are the potential benefits in implementing this project?TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee29QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighProject Evaluation MatrixTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee30Using the Matrixn The matrix is used as a scoring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential beneficial impact of a project.n Projects are evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores.n Projects are then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inclusion and balancing the portfolio.TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee31QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighMatrix Decision RegionsProjects to remove from the portfolioProjects to keep in the portfolioTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee32Evaluation Criterian The Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria:Risk and Benefit.n Five sample risk areas:Risk of Completion On Time(Schedule Risk)Risk of Managing Multiple Organizations(Organizational Risk)Risk of Technologies Used for the Application(Technological Risk)Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project(Risk of Not Doing It)Projects Implementation and Maintenance Costsn Five sample benefit areas:Number of potential groups or users needing application Projects Impact on Cross-Functional Activities Projects Impact on Improving Internal Culture Projects Impact on Improving External Customer Service Estimated Benefit/Cost Ratio(Potential Savings or Profits)TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee33Risk Assessment Scorecard-illustrationRisk CategoryWeighted Scale ExampleLow Risk Project ScoreHigh Risk Project ScoreSchedule Risk Assessment25%15Organizational Risk Assessment20%24Technological Risk Assessment20%17Risk of Not Doing Project25%41Project Support Costs10%14TOTAL RISK SCORES100%926TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee34Benefits Assessment Scorecard-illustrationBenefit CategoryWeighted Scale ExampleLow Benefit Project ScoreHigh Benefit Project ScorePotential User Base20%25Cross-Functional Improvements10%16Improving Corporate Culture20%26Improving Customer Service25%05Benefit/Cost Ratio25%15TOTAL RISK SCORES100%627TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee35Plot the Project on the MatrixQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighOur Low Risk/Low Benefit Project Might Be Rejected or DelayedOur High Risk/High Benefit Project Might Be ApprovedTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee36What is the differencen Portfolio Management in the financial marketn Project managementTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee37Questions and AnswersTalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee38Thank You!李俊伟李俊伟Contact at:george.leeTalentAllianz.Room 318,JinOu Plaza,#2 An Zhen Li,Chaoyang,Beijing,China 100029Tel +86-10 6443 7361.6443 7362Fax +86-10 6443 7363TalentAllianz Management&Technology Co.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京北京)有限公司有限公司,George Lee9、静夜四无邻，荒居旧业贫。2023-1-272023-1-27Friday,January 27,202310、雨中黄叶树，灯下白头人。2023-1-272023-1-272023-1-271/27/2023 10:55:27 PM11、以我独沈久，愧君相见频。2023-1-272023-1-272023-1-27Jan-2327-Jan-2312、故人江海别，几度隔山川。2023-1-272023-1-272023-1-27Friday,January 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