德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学荷兰莱顿大学CeTIM董事长

德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学、荷兰莱顿大学 CeTIM董事长 Prof.Dr.Bernhard Katzy holds a PhD in industrial management from the University of Technology(RWTH)Aachen in Germany and a second PhD(habilitation)in general management from University of St.Gallen,Switzerland.He is lecturing MBA and Executive MBA courses at leading European business schools,e.g.St.Gallen University,Rotterdam School of Management,European Business School and ESADE Barcelona.He is professor at the University BW Munich and at the University of Leiden.He is the founder of CeTIM Center for Technology and Innovation Management,which is located at University Bw Munich and Leiden University School of Management.His research interest is about entrepreneurial management of fast growing high-tech firms and the emerging industrial structures for the information age.Roadmapping Mobile and Digital(Broadcasting)Convergence R&D 2015移动与数字融合成长曲线2015Prof.Dr.Bernhard R.Katzy,CeTIM Xiaofeng Ma,CeTIMCeTIM.orgPresentation OutlineROADiBROM introductionScenario of Future Media Industry Structurethe ROADiBROM workshopsROADiBROM isa joint European China strategic roadmap about“Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence”The objective is to:develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China.Intended Outcome:Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence(NEM International Cooperation)Funded by European Commission(IST-045437:ROADIBROM SSA)Background of RoadibromA balanced EU-China Project ConsortiumWhy digital convergence?Media convergence Video Voice Data Device convergence:Computer TV Mobile Phone Technology Push:Business&Societal Impact:Changes of Individual livingEmerging business modelsImpact on societyInvestigating:What will the converged world looks like?What are the critical choices we confront with?How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry?China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries,e.g.3G,Wireless Communication,and Mobile digital broadcasting etc.China does not have a national standard for Mobile digital broadcastingChina verified as a big market for the mobile phone(480 Million users 2006)The metropolian cities in China(e.g.Shanghai,Beijing)are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services.Why China?Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOWMedia Industry at the verge of disruptive change?!Will it happen or not?How will it happen?What will come out?(Moore 1991)Disruptive Innovationimplies change of institutions,firms,industriesTimeRate ofInnovationProcess InnovationProductInnovationFluidPatternTransitionalPatternSpecificPatternDominant DesignTHE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGNIndustry level change20152007Technology(Product)Innovation DECREASE,Business and institutional Change just START!How specific patterns look like?How they are developed?Governments:Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology development to social and service innovationCompanies:Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions entrants will emergeWhat does it imply for Governments and industriesSigns:Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business Nokia is becoming a media company Google is regarded as the most valuable media company though not produce any content itselfRoadmap is a strategic management tool for International InnovationScenario-Make expectations(hopes and fears)explicit-Judge on likely hood of alternative scenarios-Analyze implicationsIdentify gap between state-of-art and the specific PatternTime order Gaps(and R&D actions)=roadmap The specific PatternRelevant dimensions of transformation1.Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholders2.Strategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues(transformation process)Workshop ObjectivePresentation OutlineROADiBROM introductionScenario of Future Media Industry Structurethe ROADiBROM workshopsTechnology view:Seamless network(s)converge voice,video and data in an invisible way for users,who will be able to access services anywhere and anyhow.User view:Communities of users supported by community coaches will become most active in user centric service offerings with renowned brands,Future Media Industry ScenarioDevice view:Ambient and context sensitive(sensor)will make devices“disappear”towards wearable/mobile miniature.Value Chain View:Network/Telecom operators offer infrastructure,Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches,Content production cost will disappear with“crowd sourcing”and therefore DRM will vanish.Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications,which will fund communities and dedicated professional content productionFuture Media Industry ScenarioEarly Examples of of a digital converged worldExecution Saddam HusseinTechnology:-Filmed with mobile phone-Distributed within hours by YouTubeIndustry Change:-Production cost“Zero”-Distributions cost“Zero”-No journalist involved:freedom of interpretation/uncontrollable-No broadcasting stationsPresentation OutlineROADiBROM introductionScenario of Future Media Industry Structurethe ROADiBROM workshopsThe Brussels workshop on 11th Oct35 participants from 10 Countries,discussed the critical challenges:Technology and DeviceValue Chain and ServiceThe Shanghai workshop on 2nd and 3rd Nov70 participants,discussing the critical challenges fromTechnology and deviceService and Value ChainThe Overview of the ROADiBROM activitiesEuropean workshopsChina Workshops11th Oct 2007,Brussels:Technology and DevicesService and Value Chain2nd and 3rd Nov 2007,ShanghaiTechnology and DevicesService and Value Chain6th March 2008,AmsterdamPolicy and regulationService and Value Chain6th and 7th Dec 2007,BeijingPolicy and regulationService and Value ChainMarch 2008,MunichConsolidation of resultsEarly April 2008,ShanghaiConsolidation of resultswww.ve-forum.org/digital convergence谢谢!Thank you!