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1、贝恩咨询：全球钻石行业报告THE GLOBAL DIAMOND INDUSTRYPortrait of growthThis work was commissioned by AWDC and prepared by Bain. This work is based on secondary market research, analysis of financial information avail-able or provided to Bain & Company and AWDC, and a range of interviews with customers, compe

2、titors and industry experts. Bain & Company and AWDC have not independently verified this information and make no representation or warranty, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. Projected market and financial information, analyses and conclusions contained herein a

3、re based (unless sourced otherwise) on the information described above and on Bain & Companys and AWDCs judgment, and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future perfor-mance or results. Neither Bain & Company nor AWDC nor any of their subsidiaries or their respec

4、tive officers, directors, shareholders, employees or agents accept any responsibility or liability with respect to this document. This document is copyright Bain & Company, Inc. and AWDC and may not be published, copied or duplicated, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Bain a

5、nd AWDC.Copyright ? 2012 Bain & Company, Inc. and Antwerp World Diamond Centre private foundation (AWDC). All rights reserved.The Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.ContentsNote to readers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6、11. Major developments in the diamond industry in 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22011 market overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Business update . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7、. . 8Key takeaways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122. Introduction to key market reviews: Supporting demand outlook . . . . . . . . . . . 13The purpose of our country reviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13H

8、ow we conducted the surveys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133. Major diamond markets: Similarities and contrasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Local differences in diamond preferences, ownership and psychological associations . . . . . . . . . . . .

9、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Role of diamonds in engagements and gift-giving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Consumer priorities and the importance of authenticity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Key takeaways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214. The US diamond market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Fundamentals of the US diamond market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Sources of the US consumer demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Developments and trends in US retail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Key takeaways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34The Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.5. The dia

12、mond market in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Fundamentals of the Chinese diamond market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Sources of Chinese consumer demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Developments and tren

13、ds in Chinese retailing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Key takeaways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466. The diamond market in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Fundamentals of t

14、he Indian diamond market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Sources of Indian consumer demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Developments and trends in Indian retail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Key takeaways . . . . . . . .

15、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557. Supply-demand balance through 2020: An attractive outlook for rough diamond producers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Global rough diamond demand model: Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Global r

16、ough diamond demand model: Base case scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Global rough diamond demand model: Two additional scenarios . . . . . . . . . . 63Global rough diamond supply model: Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Global rough diamond supply model: Base case scenario .

17、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Global rough diamond supply model: Two additional scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . 68Global rough diamond supply-demand balance 20122020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Potential risks and disruptive factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Ke

18、y takeaways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71The Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . .

19、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74The Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.Page 1Note to readersWelcome to the second annual report on the global diamond industry, prepared by Bain & Company together with the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AW

20、DC). Last years report, Lifting the Veil of Mystery, shed light on the dynamics and development of an industry known for its complexity and opacity. We are pleased that it was well received by industry players and the investment community.Building on that solid foundation, AWDC and Bain & Compan

21、y have renewed their collaboration and prepared a new report for 2012. Here we add depth and context to our examination of the diamond market by taking a detailed look at the dynamics of consumer demand across the globe. Although the jewelry market is the main source of demand for diamonds, the over

22、all industry is much larger: from the producers of rough diamonds to dealers, cutters and polishers to retail sales. In order to understand what drives growth of rough diamonds, one needs to examine factors behind the consumption of diamond jewelry.This report analyzes the demand fundamentals that w

23、ill shape the diamond industrys near- and medium-term future and offers evidence for a positive outlook. We start with a review of 2011. We discuss how the long-term supply-demand balance affects prices and how macroeconomic developments and changing consumer preferences are influencing the industry

24、.For the first time, the report also presents a highly detailed 6view of the consumer preferences, based on surveys of more than 5,000 diamond consumers around the world. We describe the similarities and differences among consumers in the US, China, India, Russia and in large EU countries (UK, Germa

25、ny, France and Italy). We then explore the three largest diamond marketsthe US, China and Indiawhich together account for about 60% of global demand. We conclude with an update on the outlook for the diamond industry through 2020. The updated supply forecast is based on the latest developments of ke

26、y diamond miners and the largest diamond mines worldwide. The 2020 demand outlook is based on our extensive market analysis and consumer research. Readers seeking a quick overview of the reports conclusions will find a summary of key takeaways at the end of each chapter. We hope you will find the in

27、sights in the report useful and compelling. We look forward to discussing it with you.Bain & Company Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC)Yury Spektorov Ari EpsteinPartner Chief Executive OfficerOlya Linde Stephane Fischler Partner PresidentPierre-Laurent WetliPartnerThe Global Diamond Industry |

28、Bain & Company, Inc.Page 21. Major developments in the diamond industry in 2011 2011 market overview Natural diamonds are among the worlds most precious natural resources. In 2011, diamond miners, such as ALROSA, BHP Billiton, De Beers, Rio Tinto and smaller companies, produced 124 million carat

29、s of rough diamonds, valued at $15 billion. Once out of the ground, the rough stones moved through the so-called diamond pipelinea value chain that runs from dealers to diamond cutters and polishers to jewelry manufacturers to retail stores and fi nally to consumers. The value-added along the way is

30、 impressive, as $15 billion in rough diamonds becomes $24 billion in polished diamonds, which in turn goes into diamond jewelry with a resulting retail value of $71 billion (see Figure 1.1).In this and following chapters we analyze the key factors driving demand for diamond jewelry. These factors ca

31、rry important long-term implications for the overall diamond industry and rough diamond producers in particular. Diamond jewelry sales reached all-time high Despite lingering concerns about the global economy, the diamond industry was surprisingly resilient in 2011. Although it appeared the recessio

32、n would slow sales of diamond jewelry, overall demand has continued to grow. This performance is in line with the broader luxury category, which defi ed economic headwinds to hit an all-time high in sales in 2011 (see Figure 1.2). Rough diamond production valuePolished diamond value in jewelryDiamon

33、d jewerly retail sales152471Sources: IDEX; Tacy Ltd. and Chaim Even-Zohar; Diamond Value Chain 2010Value, $ billions, 2011Figure 1.1: Diamond pipeline: Diamond value growth from production to retail The Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.Page 3Diamonds were as resilient as the overall

34、 luxury category. Last year we projected that sales of diamond jewelry would return to pre-crisis levels by 2013a projection that some observers called over-optimistic. In fact, sales surpassed their pre-crisis peak in 2011, two years earlier than we anticipated. Overall, 2011 saw retail sales of di

35、amond jewelry reach a new high, growing 18% from 2010 (see Figure 1.3). China and India are at the forefront of diamond demand growthChina and India, buoyed by strong economic advances in both countries, accounted for most of the demand growth. Chinas economy expanded by 9% during 2010-2011, slower

36、than its 13% to 14% growth rate before the global fi nancial crisis, but still far faster than any of the worlds other major economies. Indias GDP, meanwhile, grew at a solid 7% during those years, continuing its upward trajectory (see Figure 1.4). As wealth increases in both countries, diamond sale

37、s are skyrocketing. China (including Hong Kong) is now the worlds second-largest diamond jewelry market after the US, with demand growing 18% from 2010 to 2011. India is the third largest, with growth of 17% during the same period (see Figure 1.5).Powered by strong demand, the diamond market in both

38、 countries is developing rapidly. The number of retail jewelry outlets is soaring, and a growing number of consumers are adopting the Western practice of giving gifts of diamond jewelry to celebrate engagements, weddings and anniversaries. Many consumers are coming to view diamonds as investments. S

39、ome more established markets grew more slowly or suffered setbacks in 2011. The US, the worlds largest diamond jewelry market, posted a 7% gain in sales as the countrys economy rebounded, with a 1.7% increase in 2011 GDP. Consumer confi dence there continues to strengthen. European sales of diamond

40、jewelry fell slightly from 2010 to 2011, while sales in Japan slid by 6%. 146Note: Nominal pricesSource: Bain “Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study“Global luxury goods sales, Index, 2005 = 100 ($184 billion)CAGR13%CAGR17%CAGR-13%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011100109127133116CRISIS REBOUNDEXPANSION

41、125Figure 1.2: 2011 saw a peak for luxury goods consumptionThe Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.Page 4 9.2% 7.2% 4.3% 7.8% 3.9% 1.6% 1.7% -0.7% 9.2% 6.6% -7.8% -0.1% -0.6% -3.5% -4.2% -5.5%Source: International Monetary FundReal GDP growthEXPANSION 20062007CRISIS 20082009REBOUND 201

42、02011ChinaIndiaRussiaPersian GulfWorldEUUSJapan 6.6% 9.2% 1.7% 1.6% 3.9% 7.8% 4.3% 7.2% 9.2% 14.2% 10.0% 8.5% 4.3% 5.4% 3.4%1.9% 2.2%Developing countries Developed countriesFigure 1.4: Emerging economies are still growing fast Sources: IDEX; Tacy Ltd. and Chaim Even-Zohar; Bain analysisGlobal diamon

43、d jewelry retail sales, $ billions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20116269736559 607118 182018161824EXPANSION CRISIS REBOUNDCAGR9%CAGR5%CAGR-9%CAGR-11%CAGR18%CAGR33%Value of diamond contentFigure 1.3: Diamond jewelry recovered in line with the economy, but value of diamond content increased even fast

44、erThe Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.Page 5Continuous decline of rough diamond supplyThe supply of rough diamonds contracted by 3% in 2011 to 124 million carats, down from 128 million carats in 2010 (see Figure 1.6). Production decreases at De Beers and Rio Tinto, which both exper

45、ienced technical diffi culties at some of their mines, accounted for the bulk of the decline. Rio Tintos Argyle mine, in Western Australia, was hit by heavy rains and fl ooding in early 2011. De Beers has reduced production in Canada and Botswana. ALROSA maintained its production levels. Double-digi

46、t growth of rough and polished diamond pricesThe strong demand growth and minor production declines contributed to price increases of 31% for rough diamonds and 24% for polished stones in 2011 (see Figure 1.7). Thanks to those strong price increases, all major diamond producers realized signifi cant

47、 average price growth, ranging from 27% for Petra Diamonds to more than 50% for ALROSA (see Figure 1.8). What to expect in 2012: Supply-demand outlook Production in 2012 is expected to at least match last years levels, with the potential for a slight increase. De Beers announced plans to decrease ou

48、tput to between 28 million and 30 million caratsa cut of 5% to 10% compared with 2011. Rio Tinto expects to post growth based on the performance of the fi rst nine months of 2012, because of a 17% increase in output from the Argyle mine and a 5% increase from the Diavik mine. ALROSA is expected to m

49、aintain current production levels.ChinaUS India Japan PersianGulfOthers+30% +55% +30%+12%+53% -6%+7% +17%+3%-7% +18%-11%+18% -6%Note: China includes Hong Kong; “Others” includes the remaining geographiesSources: IDEX; Tacy Ltd. and Chaim Even-Zohar3020100Diamond jewelry retail sales, $ billions, 201

50、1 Total = $71 billion26.99.2 8.55.7 5.7 5.09.99.03.1 2.8 1.9 1.9 1.73.3% change,20102011Value of diamond contentEUFigure 1.5: Diamond sales are growing in line with overall economiesThe Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.Page 6200150100502005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Roughdia

51、mondsPolisheddiamondsSources: Polishedprices4 (Diamond Prices Overall Index); Kimberley Process StatisticsPrice index, 2005 = 100CAGR2%CAGR-14%CAGR24%CAGR5%CAGR-12%CAGR31%CRISIS REBOUNDEXPANSIONFigure 1.7: Rough prices exhibit continuous climb since the crisis 200150100500Note: Smaller players inclu

52、de BHP Billiton, Catoca mine, Harry Winston, Petra Diamonds; Others include DRC, Angola, Zimbabwe, Australia, Botswana, Canada, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, China, Congo, Central African Republic, Ghana, Guyana, Guinea, India, Indonesia, Lesotho, Liberia, Namibia, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Vene

53、zuela Source: Kimberley Process Statistics2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011177 176168163120128 124Global rough diamond production, millions of caratsDe Beers Rio Tinto Smaller players OthersALROSAFigure 1.6: Supply of rough diamonds contracted slightly in 2011The Global Diamond Industry | Bain &

54、; Company, Inc.Page 7Only nine months into 2012, it is diffi cult to forecast full-year consumer demand. The surprisingly strong growth posted in 2011 and uncertainty around fourth-quarter holiday sales in 2012 introduced signifi cant variables into the demand outlook for the year. The Indian diamon

55、d market refl ects the countrys uncertain economic position. The Indian government devalued its currency by 20% in the early part of 2011. The devaluation effectively raised jewelry prices by the same amount for Indian consumers. The recent increase in the export tax on diamonds, which froze the mar

56、ket in its tracks for several days in 2012, has further constrained the market. So have tighter lending policies by Indian banks, which have made it diffi cult for some Indian polishers to fi nance new purchases of wholesale diamonds. As a result, despite the strong growth in domestic consumer deman

57、d for diamonds, the import of rough diamonds declined by 36% from July 2011 to July 2012. Despite these disruptions, the long-term projections in India are extremely positive. In fact, diamonds could be an accelerator that drives the overall luxury market. The country still has only a few high-end d

58、iamond retailers, and there is no Indian equivalent of Tiffany or Cartier. While tastes are still evolving among Indian consumers, the country refl ects a huge long-term opportunity. It has the potential to become one of the largest global markets for luxury goods, including diamonds.A similar pheno

59、menon is happening in Chinaa bumpy 2012, but solid long-term growth. Imports of polished diamonds fell 14% during the fi rst six months of 2012, compared with the same period last year. It is likely that Chinas uncertain economic growth prospects have lowered confi dence levels among consumers and d

60、istributors, resulting in a temporary dip in the market. *ALROSA mines and sells two categories of diamonds: gem-quality diamonds at an average price of $197/ct (65% of volume) and non-gem qualitySources: Annual reports; publication analysis53%35%29%27%ALROSA De Beers Harry Winston PetraDiamonds$130

61、* $207 $137 $218Average price2011Percent change of average price by producer, 20102011Figure 1.8: Rough diamond producers showed strong growth in realized prices in 2011 The Global Diamond Industry | Bain & Company, Inc.Page 8These small bumps in the road do nothing to dim Chinas long-term growth prospects. Retailers in China are still pressing ahead with ambitious expansion plans, and the country should remai