房地产上市公司盈利预测自愿性信息披露问题研究.

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1、 房地产上市公司盈利预测自愿性信息披露问题研究.【摘 要】上市公司自愿披露盈利预测信息，可以提高信息使用者决策和评价的有效性，有利于降低公司资金成本，降低社会交易费用，提高证券市场的效率。我国盈利预测自愿披露过程中存在数量少、稳健性较低、可靠性差等问题。本文概述我国盈利预测自愿披露的现状及其有用性，针对目前我国房地产上市公司盈利预测自愿披露所存在的问题，分析愿因，并提出提高盈利预测披露质量的改进措施。 【关键词】盈利预测 自愿性信息披露 上市公司 房地产 盈利预测是指预测主体基于其生产计划和经营环境，充分考虑预测期可能出现的影响企业未来经济效益的增利和减利因素，依据一定的假设和基准，对未来的某

2、个或几个会计期间的盈利情况所做的预计和测算。房地产行业是资金密集型行业，融资是困扰众多企业的主要问题。由于金融制度的先天性缺陷，房地产市场以银行间接融资为主要方式。紧缩银行信贷的政策和措施相继出台，影响到了房地产金融的持续、健康发展。股权融资是房地产企业与资本融合的理想模式，我国房地产上市公司要通过股权融资存在很多困难。一个很重要的原因就是房地产上市公司在盈利预测信息自愿披露上存在着问题，亟需分析存在问题的原因，提出改 进措施。 一、我国盈利预测的现状及其有用性 目前，我国盈利预测信息披露采用的是自愿披露原则，主要集中在初次上市发行股票的公司招股说明书和已经上市公司的年报中。 招股说明书的内容

3、与格式准则中规定：“如果发行人或其财务顾问或其承销商认为提供盈利预测数据将有助于投资者对发行人及其所发行的股票做出正确的判断，且发行人确信有能力对最近的未来期间的盈利情况做出比较切合实际的预测，则发行人可在招股说明书中提供盈利预测的数据”。盈利预测应是“在对一般经济条件、营业环境、市场情况、发行人生产经营条件和财务状况等进行合理假设的基础上，按照发行人正常的发展速度，本着审慎的原则做出”。 年度报告的内容与格式准则中规定：“原则上不要求公司编制新年度的利润预测。但公司若在年度报告中提供下一年度利润预测的，该利润预测必须经过具有从事证券相关业务资格的注册会计师审核并发表意见。” 以上规定清楚表明

4、，目前在我国，盈利预测属于选择性披露事项，其披露与否的依据主要是，盈利预测信息是否有助于投资者决策和发行人是否有能力做出切实的预测。 在市场经济条件下，上市公司客观、善意地披露预测性信息，无论从微观还是宏观上说都具有重要的现实意义。 首先，有利于提高信息使用者决策和评价的有效性。上市公司只披露历史性信息，使得投资者和上市公司之间信息的不对称性大大加深，一些内幕人员完全可以通过获取未来信息从市场上获得不正当收益。对外部信息使用者而言，上市公司披露预测性信息可以弥补传统财务报告的缺陷，有助于减少投资者与公司管理当局之间的信息不对称问题。 其次，有利于降低公司资金成本。上市公司披露盈利预测信息，有助

5、于减少投资者与他们之间的信息不对称问题，同时还降低了与投资者、债权人预期的投资报酬相联系的不确定性，对债务资金来说，这将转化为较低的利率，而对主权资金来说，这将转化为较高的每股价格。如果预测的未来盈利较高，将使与公司经营相关的各方更有信心与公司合作，使原材料的供应和产品的销售更有保障，开展商业信用更加便利。特别是当公司在资金周转上存在临时困难，但一旦度过难关即可获得很好效益的情况下，提供盈利预测信息具有更直接的意义。 信息资源的有效配置能使社会资金的综合报酬率达到最大，证券价格更能真实地反映上市公司的未来前景和公司证券的真实价值，同时还可以在一定程度上防止少数掌握内幕信息的人员谋求不正当的利益

6、，从而促使证券市场的运作更加有效。 二、我国房地产上市公司盈利预测自愿披露所存在的问题及其原因 笔者认为，我国房地产上市公司在预测性信息披露上主要存在两方面的问题：一是进行盈利预测披露的房地产上市公司较少；二是房地产上市公司盈利预测的稳健性较低。 （一）进行盈利预测披露的房地产上市公司较少 思想认识不到位。我国房地产业上市起步较晚，对盈利预测披露的认识不足，表现在：认为对此类信息披露会增加经营成本，包括信息收集、整理、加工和审计成本；预测性信息的披露可能会泄露上市公司的商业秘密；预测性信息的披露会影响上市公司经营者的正常行为。 相关制度还不够合理实行自愿披露以后，房地产上市公司可以根据自己的情

7、况选择是否进行盈利预测信息披露，但是如果选择披露盈利信息以后，对出现较大偏差的，上市公司必须对其原因做出解释并公开致歉，偏差重大的，除要做出解释和致歉外，还要接受监政会的事后审查。对有意出具虚假盈利预测报告误导投资者的，一经查实，将依据有关法则对上市公司进行处罚。由此可见，不披露没有什么问题，而预测不准无论什么原因都需要公开道歉，这对发布盈利预测的上市公司而言，无疑承担了声誉上的风险，因此，除非该盈利预测信息的披露能为公司带来很大的好处，否则房地产上市公司是不愿意进行披露的。 （二）房地产上市公司盈利预测的稳健性较低，可靠性较差 如果可靠性得不到保证，其有用性(相关性)不但大打折扣，甚至可能引

8、起误导，给投资者带来重大损失。因此，可靠性是上市公司盈利预测信息的生命，是盈利预测信息质量的集中体现。由于各种相关因素的影响和作用，我国目前房地产上市公司公布的盈利预测信息的可靠性质量水平还不高，利益驱动是上市公司操纵预测性信息披露的主要动机。公司操纵盈利预测信息，其直接效益是可以以较低的资金成本筹集到资金；可以减少被兼并和收购的风险；可以树立公司的良好形象，在激烈的市场竞争中处于优越地位。公司操纵盈利预测信息，还可使公司获得很大的间接利益：有利于公司树立良好的企业形象，为公司生产经营创造良好的条件，从而在激烈的市场竞争中处于有利地位。因此，房地产上市公司有意披露虚假盈利预测信息。 会计制度的

9、不完善，严重影响信息披露。预测性信息包括发展计划和盈利预测，而我国现有关于预测性信息的财务制度中，仅有独立审计实务公告第4号盈利预测审核，缺少对整个预测性信息的审计指引。另外，目前我国有关法规对盈利预测信息生成的系统规范还不够，至今没有这方面的具体会计准则。 目前我国上市公司盈利预测信息的披露实行信息中介机构的强制审核制度，注册会计师的审核是保证盈利预测信息质量的一项重要举措。但目前我国注册会计师行业还很不规范，有时甚至不能按照独立、客观、公正的原则进行审计，致使上市公司操纵盈利预测的行为得以实现。 三、提高我国房地产上市公司自愿披露盈利预测信息质量的措施 结合本文前述房地产上市公司在盈利预测

10、信息自愿披露上存在的问题，下面就此提出几点建议。 （一）完善相关法规准则，建立规范的盈利预测体系 建立一个健全完善的盈利预测信息规范体系是确保证券市场公开、公正和公平的前提，也是证券市场向规范化迈进的关键一步。首先，应修订公司法1、证券法等，增加对盈利预测进行规范的法律条款。对盈利预测信息的预测前提、生成条件和方法内容、表达方式、时间跨度、披露时间、提供者的责任等问题根据所属行业的属性科学地做出具体规定，以此规范公司盈利预测的编制行为。例如对盈利预测可由确定值改为区间表示方式，为投资者提供更大的考虑空间；缩小盈利预测披露间隔，使投资者可以密切关注到公司经营状况的变化，增加上市公司透明度。 （二

11、）提高房地产上市公司披露盈利预测信息的意愿程度 首要途径是拓宽信息的传播渠道。一方面，应强化投资者的素质教育，帮助其认识并充分运用有关披露信息做出投资决策，从根本上解决盈利预测信息普遍被忽视的问题。另一方面，应从降低披露成本的角度解决问题。应借鉴美国在盈利预测披露制度方面所积累的经验，积极引进“预先警示制度”与“安全港规则”，从而减少错误披露给上市公司带来的法律诉讼的损失，激励和促使上市公司自愿披露盈利预测信息。其次，要化大力气提高投资者素质，提高会计信息使用者理性地分析和利用盈利预测信息的能力，这在客观上也会促使房地产上市公司积极披露盈利预测信息。 （三）提高信息提供者的业务水平 信息提供者

12、业务水平的高低直接影响着盈利预测信息的可靠性。因此需要通过各种方式尽快提高企业管理者的业务水平，同时，还应该努力培养一批权威性的盈利预测机构和高素质的财务分析师，发挥财务分析师在盈利预测中的作用。在国外成熟的证券市场中，盈利预测信息的提供者主要有公司管理当局和财务分析师，他们互相竞争、互相牵制，共同促进了盈利预测信息披露的完善。国外的研究表明，财务分析师作为公司外部的独立专业人士，其提供的盈利预测信息优于管理当局。这样，盈利预测信息来源的多样化，也在一定程度上可防止公司管理当局提供质量较差的预测信息。 （四）加强监管力度 世界各国证券监管机构对上市公司会计信息失真的行为都有严格的监管，而且采取

13、严厉的处罚措施。有鉴于此，我国应该建立一整套包括民事诉讼、刑事诉讼和行政处罚在内的多层次监管体制，明确界定公司管理当局、证券分析师、注册会计师等市场参与主体各自的法律责任，既要防止他们串通舞弊，又要防止不分青红皂白乱罚一气。 完善相关法规准则，建立规范的盈利预测体系；提高房地产上市公司披露盈利预测信息的意愿程度；提高信息提供者的业务水平；加强监管力度。通过有效地引导和监督，和这些正确有效的措施，我国房地产上市公司在融资上存在的困难一定能够解决。 参考文献： 1王惠芳.上市公司盈利预测信息自愿性披露实证研究来自1090家中国上市公司中期报告的证据.山西财经大学学报，2005，8：138-140.

14、 2王程鹏.对盈利预测若干问题的分析和研究.会计研究，1997. 3周扬.试论我国盈利预测的理论与实务.中央财经大学硕士学位论文，2006：13-14. 4邓辉.我国上市公司盈利预测制度的现状分析及对策研究.对外经济贸易大学硕士学位论文，2007：16. 5徐宗宇.对盈利预测实证选题研究的思考.财会月刊，1998，1：9-11. 6徐宗宇.财务预测信息披露及其可靠性的实证研究.数量经济技术经济研究，1998，1：52-55organization system and working mode, the selection of a number of municipal strengthen

15、ing group to build innovation and strengthen the organization of the basic level organizations advanced model.(seven) the manual work of the Communist Youth League Organization published and League branch of manual work, to promote the use of two manuals in the citys organizations at various levels.

16、 The county committee, directly under the group (work) is under the jurisdiction of grassroots League and group (total) using branch ratio shall not be less than 70%.Three, to further strengthen the groups leadership and team building(a) to strengthen the leagues leadership at all levels of construc

17、tion. Continue to do a good job of municipal Party Committee Organization Department on the strengthening of the Communist Youth League cadres management opinions implementation. To promote the group counties (autonomous counties, cities) Commission and city directly under the group (workers) appoin

18、ted to carry out the Five team building activities. Improve the League Association Department working mechanism. Conscientiously fulfill the duties of CO, combined with the city group directly under (the) Committee of the general election and the adjustment, actively jointly with the unit where the

19、party organization department good group leadership selection with the work. Do a good job in municipal Party committee assistant committee leadership and leading cadres of the annual assessment work, adhere to and improve the assistant secretary of the Communist Youth League talk system group To we

20、ave individual conversation and collective conversation, to strengthen the committees of all levels, the Standing Committee of the Standing Committee, the establishment of a sound system of central group learning, the system of investigation and study, the system of important issues and the reportin

21、g system.(two) to strengthen the work of education and training of cadres to conscientiously implement the Central Committee. On the implementation of grassroots cadres training project and opinions on carrying out the mission municipal CYL Cadres training project implementation opinions, full imple

22、mentation of the project of the City Youth League cadres training education. Focus on the county grassroots cadres and workers focused on training, the new school system vocational training League cadres, for the Municipal Organization Department jointly held the third session of the Communist Youth

23、 League system training cadres in party. Focusing on the construction of new socialist countryside, strengthening village cadres and rural construction team group member of the young team, the county organizations at various levels throughout the year is expected to train 100 00 rural grassroots cad

24、res, plans to train 1000 village secretary of the village Party branch.(three) actively promote grassroots cadres election work. Under the unified leadership of the party organization, to strengthen grassroots organizations direct work, standardize the election work rules and procedures, in the desi

25、gnated candidate, open competition to democratically elected branch secretary at the same time, actively and steadily the development of Township, streets and other grassroots organizations in the direct election of the pilot work, on the basis of summarizing the experience and gradually expand the

26、scope of the pilot, and gradually formed a set of measures and cadres election system.(four) to strengthen the cadres testing exercise. To study the development of XX city from 2006 to 2008 cadres testing exercise planning. To select outstanding cadres to the central mission in Beijing, Shanghai, Gu

27、angzhou and other central organs and sending work in developed areas. With the Central Committee the implementation of the western region and ethnic minorities cadres training plan . To carry out the eighth batch of municipal organs attachment cadre management, selection, training work. The outstand

28、ing cadres to start the National Development Bank XX branch testing exercise.(five) to strengthen the group construction. The main position to play the role of Youth League cadre education and training as the city, in accordance with the requirements of post training, further curriculum scientifical

29、ly and rationally, adopt arrangement menu course, basic theory includes group work, focus, hot and difficult issues, to enhance the content and practice; to strengthen the construction of teaching staff, the integration of teachers, establish a quality teacher training team, establish and implement

30、course evaluation system; take delivery of training to the countryside, on-site training, and increase the rural grassroots cadres training efforts.Four, efforts to strengthen the work of young talent(a) to tenth XX young 54 medal in recognition of the publicity, and actively explore the XX youth se

31、rvice. 54 Medal of institutionalization, standardization and socialization mechanism. Give full play to the XX award in recognition of 54 youth medal Association, Youth Award winner in the 54 chapter, investigation activities. Who won the Youth Service medal, dedication to the society to create cond

32、itions, build the stage. During the 54, named in recognition of the tenth XX young 54 medal. The association of XX editing of young talent , the exchange of information and communication platform for the XX of outstanding young talents.(two) the establishment of municipal Party committee of young ta

33、lent information database. In accordance with the feasible, effective, classification management, implement step by step principle, the establishment of municipal Party committee of youth talent database; guiding organizations at various levels generally established the young talent database, constr

34、uction of city, county (directly under the Communist Youth League), grassroots organizations three young talent information database the relevant information collection system, and gradually establish the citys young people, the Communist Youth League youth talent information network, provide inform

35、ation platform for young talent resource development.Five, take effective measures to strengthen the mission management(a) to strengthen the mission management work. Strengthen the dues collection and management, continue to adhere to the dues collection regularly reporting system, the annual compre

36、hensive award in recognition of the tour and the tour one vote veto system audit system. Do statistical work in the group. The group service award in recognition of the advanced units, standardization, promoting group management work institutionalized.(two) to strengthen the organization of research

37、 and information exchange efforts. Grassroots carry out research, efforts to form a number of theoretical results. Make full use of the network carrier, to explore the establishment of electronic group service system, promote the work of Communist Youth League information.Attachment 4:XX municipal P

38、arty Committee Propaganda Department of the Communist Youth League work pointsIn 2006, the Communist Youth League propaganda ideological work XX to Deng Xiaoping theory and the important thought of Three Represents as guidance, study and implement the partys sixteen and the spirit of the the fifth P

39、lenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee implementation of the eight plenary session of the two committee, the citys cultural work conference, the Propaganda Department of the meeting and the the fourth Plenary Session of the 15th CPC Central Committee permanent mission spirit, closely aroun

40、d 11th Five-Year XX the goal of full implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development, emancipating the mind, seeking truth from facts, keep pace with the times, close to reality, close to life, close to the young, persevere grasp orientation, grasping deepening, grasping construction innovation,

41、 further improve the groups propaganda and ideological work ability, unity To guide the majority of members of the youth to achieve the 11th Five-Year planning tasks, the overall construction of a well-off society, building a socialist harmonious society to make new contributions.One, adhere to the

42、Three Represents important thought and Scientific Outlook on Development education to guide the youth, to further strengthen the ideological and political education of youth(a) armed with youth science theory. Unremittingly with Deng Xiaoping theory and the important thought of Three Represents arme

43、d members of youth education, to promote the study and implement to expand the depth and breadth. To study and implement the important thought of Three Represents with the establishment and implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development combine with the implementation of the requirements of con

44、structing socialist harmonious society with Scientific Outlook on Development, carry out education as an important part of the theory of armed youth in the new period, strengthen the establishment and implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development education, educate and guide the youth to fully

45、 understand the great significance of establishment and implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development, in-depth understanding of the Scientific Outlook on Development era back The king, the practice foundation, basic connotation, historical status, spirit and practice requirements, a profound

46、understanding of Scientific Outlook on Development with Marxism Leninism, Mao Zedong thought, inheriting and developing relationship between Deng Xiaoping theory and the important thought of Three Represents, to help young people establish and consciously practice Scientific Outlook on Development.

47、Persist in learning, grasping the backbone, grasp the practice, grasp the opportunity. Catch club, effective way to grasp the network, with the group of cadres, young students and young backbone fronts as the focus, to promote the work of the armed youth theory to develop in depth, to help the youth

48、 continue to firm ideals and beliefs, to build a powerful spiritual pillar. To carry out the study and implementation of the partys sixteen session of the five Eight plenary session of the two plenary session of the Central Committee and the party spirit, to the citys Youth League members thinking i

49、nto the spirit of the meeting, to achieve the goal of national consciousness and XX economic and social development in 11th Five-Year period. Contribute to help and guide the youth to a profound understanding of the significance and main task of building a socialist harmonious society, actively join

50、 the construction of socialist harmonious society.(two) to strengthen the ideological and moral construction of teenagers. Thoroughly implement the central spirit of the document No. 8, No. 16 and the program for Improving Civic Morality to minors and students as focus groups, to strengthen and impr

51、ove the ideological and moral construction of minors and the ideological and political education of college students. Make full use of the spirit and the spirit of the Three Gorges migrants Hongyan XX unique the use of educational resources, school, into the team, the league, to join the party, adul

52、t occasions, extensive Hongyan spirit generation theme education activities. Use of holidays and leisure time, youth organizations three rural areas, four communities, four and moral practice, guide the youth Youth to enhance national pride, self-esteem and self-confidence, to establish the trend of

53、 the times and adapt to the trend of thinking, value orientation and behavior.(three) innovative ways and means of ideological education. Grasp the new trend of the development of the times, the new hot new features and social ideological status of young people, to further explore the methods of ide

54、ological education using modern technology and communication mode of education make lively and vivid, fully embodies the close to reality, close to life, close to the young principle through the cultivation and selection. Hongyan demonstration group, good boy, Hongyan Hongyan Youth and other forms o

55、f more scientific use of advanced typical influence and promote youth, and strive to create advocating advanced, learning advanced, striving to advance a good atmosphere.Two, in order to forge ahead with the motherland, and XX with the development as its theme, guide the youth to build a common ideo

56、logical basis for the construction of a socialist harmonious society(a) grasp the theme of the purpose of the activity. The go ahead with the motherland in the youth, and XX with the development of theme educational activities. Vigorously promote patriotism as the core of the national spirit and ref

57、orm and innovation as the core spirit of the times, the combination of youth with common ideals and beliefs, with great achievements in socialist modernization the motivation of youth, the youth to enhance self-confidence, sense of mission and responsibility to educate and guide the youth to persona

58、l pursuit into the common pursuit of all people, their personal struggle into the great practice of building socialism China characteristics, further firmly follow the party China characteristics The confidence and determination of the socialist road, and build the common ideological foundation of t

59、he young people to build a socialist harmonious society.(two) rich theme activities. By carrying out the two generation dialogue , in my eyes, the charm of XX situation and policy through activities such as lectures, report, seminars, theatrical performances, mass cultural activities, to help young

60、people understand Chinas reform and opening up the extraordinary journey and brilliant achievements achieved fruitful results, to understand the citys economic and social development since the new XX, so that young people understand, love the new XX, and then to the construction of the new XX, a fir

61、m with the party on the road to socialism with China characteristics of faith; make full use of the 54, 61, National Day and the commemoration of the 85 anniversary of the founding of the red In the 70 anniversary of the victory of the long march and other major activities, the favorable opportunity

62、 of major events and major festivals, to carry out educational activities, promote the theme education activities continue to create momentum, the rise of high tide, popular. Further study, promotion of Scientific Outlook on Development, to carry out a wide range of situation and policy education, t

63、he development prospect of the future of the motherland and XX, guiding the youth to continue enhance the sense of mission and responsibility, in the implementation of the 11th Five-Year planning and building a well-off society in the historical process of contributions. Be enthusiastic and press on

64、.Three, to lead the trend of youth service, cultural city youth culture is taking action, and promote new progress in the construction of youth 10 / 10organization system and working mode, the selection of a number of municipal strengthening group to build innovation and strengthen the organization

65、of the basic level organizations advanced model.(seven) the manual work of the Communist Youth League Organization published and League branch of manual work, to promote the use of two manuals in the citys organizations at various levels. The county committee, directly under the group (work) is under the jurisdiction of grassroots League and group (total) using branch ratio shall not be less than 70%.Three, to further st