大学英语复习资料：The Real Challenge from China

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1、The Real Challenge from China: Its People, Not Its CurrencyBy Fareed Zakaria Thursday, Oct. 07, 2010 1 I love the idea of bipartisanship. Just the image of Democrats and Republicans coming together makes me smile. Finally, I say to myself, American government is working. But then I look at what they

2、 actually agree on, and I begin to pine for paralysis.1 我喜欢两党合作的想法。只要想到民主党和共和党人一起让我微笑。“最后,”我对自己说,“美国政府工作。“但是之后我看他们实际同意,我开始渴望瘫痪。2 On Sept. 29, the House of Representatives passed a bill with overwhelming support from both Democrats and Republicans. It would punish China for keeping its currency under

3、valued by slapping tariffs on Chinese goods. Everyone seems to agree that its about time. But it isnt. The bill is at best pointless posturing and at worst dangerous demagoguery （煽动群众）. It wont solve the problem it seeks to fix. More worrying, it is part of growing anti-Chinese sentiment in the U.S.

4、 that misses the real challenge of Chinas next phase of development. 2 在 9 月 29 日,众议院通过一项法案以压倒性的民主党和共和党议员的支持。它将惩罚中国低估人民币汇率对中国商品处以惩罚性关税。每个人似乎都同意是时候了。但它不是。该法案是在最好的毫无意义的装腔作势,在最坏的危险的煽动(煽动群众)。它不会解决这个问题寻求解决。更令人担心的是,它是成长的一部分反华情绪在美国,忽略了真正的挑战中国下一阶段的发展。3 Theres no doubt that China keeps the renminbi, its curr

5、ency, undervalued so it can help its manufacturers sell their toys, sweaters and electronics cheaply in foreign markets, especially the U.S. and Europe. But this is only one of a series of factors that have made China the key manufacturing base of the world. (The others include low wages, superb inf

6、rastructure, hospitality to business, compliant unions and a hard-working labor force.) A simple appreciation of the renminbi will not magically change all this. 3 毫无疑问,中国保持人民币汇率被低估,所以它可以帮助其制造商出售他们的玩具、毛衣和电子产品在国外市场便宜,尤其是美国和欧洲。但这仅仅是一系列的因素之一,已经使中国制造业基地的关键的世界。(其他人还包括低工资、一流的基础设施、酒店业务,顺从的工会和辛勤工作的劳动力)。一个简单

7、的人民币升值不会神奇地改变这一切。4 Chinese companies make many goods for less than 25% of what they would cost to manufacture in the U.S. Making those goods 20% more expensive (because its reasonable to suppose that without government intervention, Chinas currency would increase in value against the dollar by about

8、 20%) wont make American factories competitive. The most likely outcome is that it would help other low-wage economies like Vietnam, India and Bangladesh （孟加拉国）, which make many of the same goods as China. So Walmart would still stock goods at the lowest possible price, only more of them would come

9、from Vietnam and Bangladesh. Moreover, these other countries, and many more in Asia, keep their currencies undervalued as well. As Helmut Reisen, head of research for the Development Center at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, wrote recently in an essay, There are more than

10、 two currencies in the world. 4 中国公司使许多商品的不到 25%,他们将在美国制造成本使这些商品涨价20%(因为它是合理的假设,如果没有政府干预,中国的货币会升值约 20%,兑美元)不会让美国工厂竞争。最可能的结果是,它将帮助其他低工资的经济体,如越南、印度和孟加拉国(孟加拉国),这让许多相同的商品作为中国。因此,沃尔玛依旧会股票商品以最低价,只有更多的人将来自越南和孟加拉国。此外,这些其他国家,和更多的在亚洲,保持他们的货币被低估一样。作为负责人赫尔穆特莱尔森的研究开发中心在经济合作与发展组织最近在一篇文章中写到,“有两个以上的货币在世界。”5 Weve se

11、en this movie before. From July 2005 to July 2008, under pressure from the U.S. government, Beijing allowed its currency to rise against the dollar by 21%. Despite that hefty increase, Chinas exports to the U.S. continued to grow mightily. Of course, once the recession hit, Chinas exports slowed, bu

12、t not as much as those of countries that had not let their currencies rise. So even with relatively pricier goods, China did better than other 5 我们之前看过这部电影。从 2005 年 7 月到 2008 年 7 月,从美国政府的压力下,北京允许人民币兑美元升值了 21%。尽管经历了大幅升值,中国对美国的出口继续增长巨大。当然,一旦经济衰退来袭,中国出口放缓,但没有那么多的国家,并没有让他们的货币升值。所以即使相对昂贵的商品,中国的表现也比其他出口国要

13、好 exporting nations. 6 Look elsewhere in the past and you come to the same conclusion. In 1985 the U.S. browbeat （威胁，恫吓） Japan at the Plaza Accord meetings into letting the yen rise. But the subsequent 50% increase did little to make American goods more competitive. Yale Universitys Stephen Roach po

14、ints out that since 2002, the U.S. dollar has fallen in value by 23% against all our trading partners, and yet American exports are not booming. The U.S. imports more than it exports from 90 countries around the world. Is this because of currency manipulation by those countries, or is it more likely

15、 a result of fundamental choices we have made as a country to favor consumption over investment and manufacturing? 6 在别处过去和你得出了同样的结论。1985 年,美国恫吓(威胁,恫吓)日本在广场协议会议让日元上涨。但随后的 50%的增长并未使得美国商品更具竞争力。耶鲁大学的斯蒂芬罗奇指出,自 2002 年以来,美元已下跌价值降低23%反对我们所有的贸易伙伴,而美国出口并不是蓬勃发展。美国进口大于出口从 90 年世界各国。这是因为这些国家的货币操纵的,或者是更有可能导致的基本选择

16、我们作为国家所做出的有利于消费过度投资和制造?Coming: The New China7 The real challenge we face from China is not that it will keep flooding us with cheap goods. Its actually the opposite: China is moving up the value chain, and this could constitute the most significant new competition to the U.S. economy in the future.

17、8 For much of the past three decades, China focused its efforts on building up its physical infrastructure. It didnt need to invest in its people; the country was aiming to produce mainly low-wage, low-margin goods. As long as its workers were cheap and worked hard, that was good enough. But the fac

18、tories needed to be modern, the roads world-class, the ports vast and the airports efficient. All these were built with a speed and on a scale never before seen in human history. 未来:新的中国7 我们面临的真正挑战来自中国不是它会继续向我们提供廉价商品。它实际上是相反的:中国向价值链上游转移,这可能是最重要的新竞争美国经济在未来。8 在过去的三十年里,中国集中精力建立它的物理基础设施。它不需要投资于其人民;该国的目标

19、是主要生产低工资、低利润率的商品。只要它的工人被廉价和工作努力就足够了。但是工厂必须是现代的,道路是世界级的,巨大的和机场港口效率。所有这些均建有一个速度和规模在人类历史上从未见过的。9 Now China wants to get into higher-quality goods and services. That means the next phase of its economic development, clearly identified by government officials, requires it to invest in human capital with

20、the same determination it used to build highways. Since 1998, Beijing has undertaken a massive expansion of education, nearly tripling the share of GDP devoted to it. In the decade since, the number of colleges in China has doubled and the number of students quintupled, going from 1 million in 1997

21、to 5.5 million in 2007. China has identified its nine top universities and singled them out as its version of the Ivy League. At a time when universities in Europe and state universities in the U.S. are crumbling （粉碎，崩溃）from the impact of massive budget cuts, China is moving in exactly the opposite

22、direction. In a speech earlier this year, Yale president Richard Levin pointed out, This expansion in capacity is without precedent. China has built the largest higher-education sector in the world in merely a decades time. In fact, the increase in Chinas postsecondary enrollment since the turn of t

23、he millennium exceeds the total postsecondary enrollment in the United States. 9 现在中国希望进入更高品质的商品和服务。这意味着下一阶段的经济发展,显然被政府官员,要求它投资于人力资本以同样的决心它用于修建高速公路。自1998 年以来,北京已采取了大规模扩张的教育,几乎三倍于 GDP 的份额用于它。这十年以来,在中国,大学的数量增加了一倍,学生的数量增加了 4 倍,将从 100万年的 1997 增加到 550 万年的 2007。中国已将其九个顶尖大学和挑了中国版的常青藤联盟。在大学的时候在欧洲和在美国的州立大学正在

24、崩溃(粉碎,崩溃)从大规模预算削减的影响,中国移动在完全相反的方向。今年早些时候的一次演讲中,耶鲁校长理查德莱文指出,“这扩张能力是没有先例的。中国已经建成了世界上最大的高等教育部门在仅仅十年的时间。事实上,增加中国高等教育入学率自世纪之交超过总在美国高等教育入学注册。”智力的好处The Benefits of Brainpower10 What does this unprecedented investment in education mean for China and for the U.S.? Nobel Prizewinning economist Robert Fogel of

25、 the University of Chicago has estimated the economic impact of well-trained workers. In the U.S., a high school-educated worker is 1.8 times as productive, and a college graduate three times as productive, as someone with a ninth-grade education. China is massively expanding its supply of high scho

26、ol and college graduates. And though China is still lagging far behind India in the services sector, as its students learn better English and train in technology both of which are happening Chinese firms will enter this vast market as well. Fogel believes that the increase in high-skilled workers wi

27、ll substantially boost the countrys annual growth rate for a generation, taking its GDP to an eye-popping $123 trillion by 2040. (Yes, by his estimates, in 2040 China would be the largest economy in the world by far.) 10 这是什么前所未有的教育投资对中国意味着和美国吗?诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特福格尔的芝加哥大学估计的经济影响训练有素的工人。在美国,一个高学校受过教育的工人生产力

28、是其 1.8 倍,大学毕业生的三倍的人与一个九年级的教育。中国正在大规模地扩大其高中和大学毕业生的供应。尽管中国仍远落后于印度在服务业,为学生学习更好的英语和火车在技术而这两个正在发生中国企业将进入这个巨大的市场。福格尔认为,高技能工人的增加将会大大提高该国的年度增长率整整一代人,占其 GDP 到 2040 年惊人的123 万亿美元。(是的,他估计,2040 年中国将成为世界上最大的经济体迄今为止。)11 Whether or not that unimaginable number is correct and my guess is that Fogel is much too optim

29、istic about Chinas growth what is apparent is that China is beginning a move up the value chain into industries and jobs that were until recently considered the prerogative （特权） of the Western world. This is the real China challenge. It is not being produced by Beijings currency manipulation or hidd

30、en subsidies but by strategic investment and hard work. The best and most effective response to it is not threats and tariffs but deep, structural reforms and major new investments to make the U.S. economy dynamic and its workers competitive. Thats where we need bipartisan agreement. Someone? Anyone

31、? 11 是否,难以想象的数字是正确的和我的猜测是,福格尔太乐观的中国的增长但显而易见的是,中国开始向价值链上游转移到工业和工作岗位,直到最近才被认为是特权(特权)的西方世界。这是来自中国的真正挑战。这不是所生产的北京的汇率操纵或隐性补贴,但通过战略投资和努力工作。最好的和最有效的反应不是威胁和关税,但深层次结构性改革和主要的新投资,以使美国经济动态及其工人竞争。这才是我们需要的两党协议。有人吗?任何人吗?Q&A WITH WEN JIABAOThe Wish and Will of the People Are Not StoppableBy Fareed Zakaria Thursday,

32、 Oct. 07, 2010 On Oct. 3, Fareed Zakaria spoke to Premier Wen Jiabao on his CNN program Fareed Zakaria GPS. Excerpts: Do you feel that the global economy is stable and strong? Or do you worry that the U.S. could go back into a recession? I think the world economy is recovering, although the process

33、of recovery is a slow and torturous one. I hope that there will be a quick recovery of the U.S. economy, because, after all, the U.S. economy is the largest in the world. I have taken note of the recent policies and measures taken by President Obama. I think these are on the right track. 问答与温家宝“希望和人

34、民的意志不是可停止的”法里德扎卡里亚的周四,10 月 07,201010 月 3 日,Fareed Zakaria 向温家宝总理在他的 CNN 程序 Fareed Zakaria GPS。 摘录:你认为全球经济稳定和强劲的吗?或者你担心,美国可能会重新回到衰退?我认为全球经济正在复苏,但复苏的过程是一个缓慢而痛苦的人。我希望会有一个快速恢复美国经济,因为,毕竟,美国经济在世界上是最大的。我已经注意到最近的政策和采取的措施,奥巴马总统。我认为这些都是正确的。What lesson have you drawn from the financial crisis? Have you lost fa

35、ith in American macroeconomic management? The biggest lesson that I have drawn from the financial crisis is that, in managing the affairs of a country, its important to pay close attention to addressing the structural problems in the economy. China has achieved enormous progress in its development.

36、Yet I was one of the first to argue that our economic development still lacks balance, coordination and sustainability. This financial crisis has reinforced my view. As far as the U.S. economy is concerned, I have always believed that it is solidly based. The U.S. has the strength of scientific and

37、technological talent and managerial expertise. In spite of the twists and turns, the U.S., I believe, will tide over the crisis 你有什么教训来自金融危机?你在美国的宏观经济管理失去了信心?最大的教训,我有来自金融危机是,在管理事务的一个国家,重要的是要密切注意解决结构性问题在经济。中国取得了巨大的进步发展。然而我是第一次认为我们的经济发展仍然缺少平衡性、协调性和可持续性。金融危机加强了我的观点。据美国经济而言,我一直相信,它是有坚实基础。美国有实力的科学和技术人才和管

38、理经验。尽管迂回曲折,美国,我相信,将渡过这场危机。. Can China be a strong and creative nation with so many restrictions on freedom of expression and the Internet being censored? I believe freedom of speech is indispensable for any country. Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution. In China ther

39、e are about 400 million Internet users and 800 million mobile-phone subscribers. They can access the Internet to express their views, including critical views. I often say that we should not only let people have the freedom of speech; we, more important, must create conditions to let them criticize

40、the work of the government. All this must be conducted within the range allowed by the constitution and the laws so that the country will have normal order. And that is all the more necessary for such a large country as China, with 1.3 billion people. 中国能成为一个强大和富有创造力的国家有如此多的言论自由限制以及互联网管制怎么?我相信言论自由是必

41、不可少的,任何国家。言论自由被纳入中国宪法。在中国,有 4 亿左右的互联网用户和 8 亿移动电话用户。他们可以接入网络,表达他们的观点,包括批评意见。我常说,我们不仅要让人民有言论自由;我们,更重要的是,必须创造条件,让他们批评了政府的工作。所有这一切都必须进行允许范围内的宪法和法律,这个国家将会有正常秩序。和这就更有必要像中国这样一个大国,有 13 亿人口。I was particularly struck by a speech you gave in Shenzhen in which you said, Along with economic reform, we must keep

42、doing political reform. But a lot of Chinese people say there has not been much political reform over the past six or seven years. I have summed up my political ideals in the following four sentences: To let everyone lead a happy life with dignity. To let everyone feel safe and secure. To let the so

43、ciety be one with equality and justice. And to let everyone have confidence in the future. In spite of the various discussions and views in the society, and in spite of some resistance, I will act in accordance with these ideals unswervingly and advance, within the realm of my capabilities, politica

44、l restructuring. 给我印象最深的演讲你给在深圳,你说,“随着经济改革,我们必须保持做政治改革。“但很多中国人说没有太大的政治改革在过去的六、七年。我来总结我的政治理想在接下来的四句话:让每个人都过上幸福的生活与尊严。让每个人都感到安全有保障。让社会是一个以平等和公正。并让每个人都有信心在未来。尽管各种讨论和视图的社会,尽管一些阻力,我将按照这些理想坚定不移地和进步,我的能力的范围内,政治体制改革。Wouldnt it be good for China to allow a more substantial appreciation of the renminbi? There

45、 are three points. First, China does not pursue a trade surplus. Our objective in having foreign trade is to have balanced and sustainable trade with other countries, and we want to have a basic equilibrium in our balance of payments. Second, the increase of a trade surplus of a country is not neces

46、sarily linked with the exchange policy of that country. The third point is that the trade imbalance between our two countries is mainly structural in nature. Many Chinese exports to the U.S. are no longer produced in the U.S., and I dont believe that the U.S. will restart the production of those pro

47、ducts products that are at the low end of the value-added chain. Even if you dont buy them from China, you still have to buy them from India, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh. And that will not help resolve the trade imbalance between our two countries. 不是很适合中国允许更大幅升值人民币吗?有三个点。首先,中国不追求贸易顺差。我们的目标是让外国贸易平衡和可持续的

48、贸易与其他国家,我们想要有一个基本平衡国际收支。第二,增加贸易顺差的国家并不一定与那个国家的汇率政策。第三点是,中美两国的贸易失衡主要是由于结构性在自然。很多中国出口到美国不再在美国生产,我不相信美国将重新启动生产的产品产品,在低端的增值链。即使你不从中国购买,您仍然需要购买从印度、斯里兰卡和孟加拉国。和这不会帮助解决两国的贸易不平衡。Is there a book youve read in the past few months that has impressed you? The books that are always on my shelves are books about h

49、istory, because I believe history is like a mirror, and I like to read both Chinese history and history of foreign countries. There are two books that I often travel with. One is The Theory of Moral Sentiments （情操论）, by Adam Smith. The other is The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius （沉思录）. There are too

50、 many memoirs selling nowadays. I dont like reading those books. 有一本书你读过在过去的几个月里,让你印象深刻呢?书总是在我的架子是对历史的书,因为我相信历史就像镜子,我喜欢读中国历史和历史的两个国家。有两本书,我经常旅行。一个是道德情操论(情操论),由亚当史密斯。另一个是沉思录的马可奥里利乌斯(沉思录)。有太多自夸自卖的回忆录现在。我不喜欢读这些书。You have spoken of your determination to continue political reform. Do you believe that the

51、 next generation of Chinese leaders will keep trying to press your vision? First, as the Chinese saying goes, as the Yangtze River forges ahead waves upon waves, the new generation will invariably surpass the old. I have confidence that the future Chinese leadership will excel the previous one. Seco

52、nd, it is the people and the strength of the people that determine the future of the country and history. The wish and will of the people are not stoppable. Those who go along with the trend will thrive, and those who go against the trend will fail. 你说你的决心继续政治改革。你相信新一代中国领导人将试图按你的视力?首先,正如中国俗语所说,作为长江昂首向前波在波浪,新一代总是会超过旧的。我有信心,未来的中国领导层将 excel 前一个。第二,它是人民和人民的力量,决定国家的未来和历史。愿和人民的意志不是可停止的。那些赞同这个趋势会茁壮成长,和那些违背这一趋势将会失败。