英文文献翻译：评估服务贸易自由化给发展中国家带来的好英文文献翻译

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1、英文文献翻译：评估服务贸易自由化给发展中国家带来的好英文文献翻译 英文文献翻译Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade1John Whalley The University of Western Ontario1INTRODUCTIONaBackgroundThis paper assesses the present state of quantitative literature which seeks to evaluate the potential impac

2、ts which would follow from global services trade liberalisation as it relates to developing countries It is important to emphasize that what are frequently referred to as developing countries are themselves also a heterogeneous group of countries They span rapidly growing economies in Asia negative

3、growth economies in GDPcapita in Africa middle income and very poor countriessmall and large landlocked and ocean access heavily regulated and recently Liberalised I prefer the term poorer countries and use this interchangeably with the term developing countries in the text Much of the literature at

4、 issue is relatively recent and is scattered in working papers and other less accessible sources Policy makers clearly need help in unraveling this at times confusing and fragmentary picture of what the research community has to offer to guide their deliberations This paper aims to do this rather th

5、an to advocate particular policy positions on global services liberalisationbNature of ServicesThe paper begins by characterizing services as a majority of activity for most OECD economies as measured by employment and by value added originating and a smaller but still large portion of activity for

6、poorer developing countries It suggests that so-called 庆oreservices can best be thought of see Melvin 1989 as relating to 1 This is a draft of a report prepared for the OECD Trade Directorate The author is grateful to KcnHcydon and his colleagues at OECD for extensive comments and help with logistic

7、al and bibliographical support1英文文献翻译intermediation through time banking insurance or space telecoms transportation retailing wholesaling with a wide range of diverse additional service items making up the balance of what most people refer to as services tourism consulting services government servic

8、es utilities This diverse range of activities is typically treated in quantitative studies as a single homogeneous entity frequently labeled as services for analytical convenience when in fact its heterogeneity suggests a different treatment for each This heterogeneity isin my view key to better und

9、erstanding how services trade liberalisation could affect poorer countriesc Impacts of Liberalisation on Poorer CountriesThere is a general presumption in the poorer countries that they will lose from global services trade liberalisation since their domestic service industries are inefficient and no

10、n-competitive This view is despite the arguments from economists as to the gains to domestic consumers from lower prices and the joint benefits which accrue to both exporting and importing countries from exploiting comparative advantage and improved market access opportunities abroad It is also desp

11、ite the commonly held view that the production of many services are labor intensive which economists believe should be the source of comparative advantage for poorer developing countries in services provision There unfortunately appear to be few if any studies of the relative inefficiency of local v

12、ersus Foreign Service providers in developing country service markets which allow the strength of these arguments to be evaluated on empirical groundsThis caution towards global services trade liberalisation in the developing world seems to reflect two concerns One is the general assumption in the d

13、eveloping world that any future negotiated global liberalisation of services trade will be largely one sided in the results it will yield Their belief is that if new WTO multilateral or even regional services liberalisation is negotiated developed country service providers will likely gain significa

14、ntly improved access to developing country service markets but the converse significantly improved access for developing country service providers to developed country service markets will likely not happen Asymmetry in negotiating power is one reason cited for this possible outcome The presumption

15、is that the present regulatory structure for most service market segments will remain英文文献翻译in place in OECD countries and few significant improvements in access to developed country markets for developing country service providers will occur This outcome for instance is reflected in recent US bilate

16、ral agreements including the US-Chile agreementIn reality through the process of ongoing regulatory reform in the OECDchanges are in fact being made in market access arrangements for developing country service providers though these are not necessarily reflected in scheduled commitments in GATS in t

17、he WTO Another important and neglected dimension to this conclusion is South-South trade and the potential that developing countries have much to gain from liberalisation of markets in other developing countries The point is that in terms of model-based or quantitative evaluations of the impacts of

18、services trade liberalisation were genuine two-sided liberalization to take place with their low wage ratesdeveloping country providers could well benefit This is especially so if there are scale economies in service provision as in banking for instance Most of the available studies of what benefits

19、 might flow from services liberalisation assume there will be full multilateral opening of service markets and results of studies must be interpreted in light of this presumption If one-sided liberalisation is the expected outcome developing countries may well remain opposed to liberalisation on the

20、 grounds it is non-reciprocal despite the results of studiesThe second caution that developing countries express is the nature and size of the adjustments in domestic economies which services liberalisation may imply One dimension of adjustment relates to potential foreign majority ownership and con

21、trol of provision in key service sectors and the related security and cultural concerns Foreign entities having access to and control over bank records and financial information of domestic residentsfor instance is seen in some countries as unacceptable Also a vibrant and vital domestic broadcast or

22、 film industry may be viewed as integral to national cultural identity Added to such concerns is the potential size of labour market adjustments if domestic banks are displaced by foreign banks domestic by foreign airlines and other large changes in the organization of labour-intensive sectors which

23、 might follow after liberalisation英文文献翻译2GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS IN EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF SERVICES TRADE LIBERALISATION ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIESPrior to reviewing existing literature relevant to the developing country interest in global services trade liberalisationit may be helpftjl to first high

24、light a number of wider conceptual issues relevant to the discussiona The Developing Country Interest in Trade Liberalisation in GeneralThe presumption behind most discussion of potential developing country interests in services trade liberalisation is that countries gain from more open services tra

25、de in ways which are similar to trade liberalisation in goods This reflects the idea that countries have differing comparative advantage in the production of both goods and services and more open trade will allow comparative advantage to be more fully exploited in all countries Put simply the thinki

26、ng is that propositions regarding the gains from freer trade apply equally to both goods and services There are however many complications with this line of argument even though it is instinctively where most academic economists finish up in their thinkingFirst accepting for now the proposition that

27、 trade in services and goods can be treated as analytically similar in this way the issue of how developing countries benefit from services trade liberalisation is subject to all of the nuances set out in the literature on trade policy While most academic economists instinctively believe that there

28、are benefits for all countries from freer trade over the years they have nevertheless devoted a considerable portion of their intellectual energy to producing arguments as to why the contrary may be true These include arguments for an optimal tariff terms of trade improvement from protection for inf

29、ant industry protection for tariffs which transfer rents rent shifting and tariffs that offset other domestic distortions These arguments presumably apply equally to trade in services and goods if they are analytically similar and hence qualify the presumption that freer global trade in service is a

30、 good thingSecond there are a series of arguments about protection of trade in goods that relate in one way or another primarily to developing countries and these presumably also come into play in discussing trade in services Examples are that increased tradecan be immiserising due to a terms of tra

31、de deterioration in a Lewis model with英文文献翻译traditional practices in agricultural sectors average rather than marginal product pricing of labour protection of traded goods sectors is called for to pull labour into import-competing modem sectors in a Harris-丁odaro model with an urban sector specific

32、downward rigid real wage and unemployment an import subsidy can be beneficialIn addition there are many broader issues identified in the literature about the form global trade liberalisation takes and hence its impacts on developing countries and these would again apply equally to services and goods

33、 If as is usually argued countries gain more from improved access to larger foreign markets given the larger size of OECD markets than from their own liberalisation what they should seek is genuinely multilateral liberalisation rather than only participate in unilateral liberalisation This should in

34、clude freer South-South trade in services as well as OECDnon-OECD trade Being smaller economically developing countries have less bargaining power than larger developed countries in trade negotiations and this applies equally to trade in goods and services and hence globally negotiated outcomes may

35、well be asymmetricDeveloping countries also often argue that both trade liberalisation and its impacts need to be evaluated in the context of its wider impacts on the developmental process including implications for growth and poverty which are not typically centrally discussed in conventional trade

36、 literature These arguments also presumably apply equally to trade in goods and servicesHence while the presumption is that global liberalisation of trade in services will yield gains for both developed and poorer developing countries and hence the central issue is to evaluate the size of any result

37、ing gains it needs to be borne in mind that the arguments even from conventional literature on trade in goods are more nuanced than thish Differences Between Trade in Services and Trade in GoodsAccepting for now that there is a general presumption that global trade liberalization in either goods and

38、 services is broadly beneficial for developing countries a contention some would challenge the next issue is whether goods and services differ in some important way Do they need to be approached differently in英文文献翻译evaluating the quantitative impacts involvedThis is a key issue in discussing the imp

39、acts of services liberalisation on poorer developing countries since much if not most of the existing quantitative literature treats services as analytically similar to goods The approach is to define a single product commonly called producer services which is an input into production and against wh

40、ich trade protection operates with a tariff-like instrument Liberalisation is then a reduction in or elimination of the tariff Not surprisingly numerical results from models are similar to those of trade liberalization in goods Small positive gains accrue to most countries if there are no factor mob

41、ility effects captured as in goods liberalisation modelsIn reality however the term services captures a heterogeneous group of activities spanning banking insurance transportation telecoms consulting s captures ervices retail and wholesale trade and several others Much of this activity facilitates t

42、ransactions providing the economic fiinction of intermediation either through time or space which as pointed out by Melvin 1989 when explicitly modeled as such can produce different implications for trade liberalisationRyan 1990 and 1992 for instance shows that when banking is explicitly modelled as

43、 intermediation services that themselves do not directly provide utility but instead facilitate intermediation between borrowers and lendersliberalization of trade in banking services can reduce GDP and even welfare Chia and Whalley 1997 have produced a numerical example of welfare worsening trade l

44、iberalisation in banking services based on this approach The results from such examples reflect the use of specific formulations and parameter values and functional forms and are hence not general results They do howeversuggest a weakening in the general presumption that gains will be automatically

45、shared between developed and poorer developing countries if global liberalisation of services trade occurs Bhatterai and Whalley 1999 provide a related analysis of the implications of liberalisation in network services effectively telecoms where the same theme emerges that recognition of the special

46、 features of individual services changes the analysis of the impacts of services liberalisationAnother difference is that to achieve meaningful trade liberalisation in services英文文献翻译may require modifications of factor mobility restrictions which may not be needed for goods liberalisation This is rec

47、ognized in Modes 3 and 4 of GATS which effectively relate to capital FDI mobility and labour service provider mobility With restricted or segmented global factor markets and especially labour markets large effects can come from services liberalisation if such liberalization becomes an indirect mecha

48、nism for liberalising global factor markets This is a central issue for the poorer developing countries who have long pushed for liberalization of immigration controls in OECD countries since global services liberalization may be a vehicle for them to achieve this endThus whether services are treate

49、d as being different from goods whether their economic characteristics are explicitly modeledand how factor flows are treated can all make a large difference to the perceived effects of trade liberalisation in servicescTypes of Services Trade Liberalisation DeregulationCompetitionBarrier ReductionA

50、further key issue in discussing tradeliberalisation in services and its impacts on poorer developing countries is that the types and forms of liberalisation need to be fully and carefully specified As a result these often have to be discussed in ways which do not arise with liberalisation in goods t

51、rade Barriers to the flow of goods typically arise as customs and other physical restraints on trade are administered at national borders Thus for goods trade most discussion of liberalization focuses on tariffs and less so on other instrumentsWithin the services trade community and in the policy li

52、terature in general there is an understanding that the outcomes of services liberalisation will depend heavily on the regulatory environment and the need for liberalisation to be underpinned by a sound regulatory framework Restraints on trade no longer apply in the same way as for goods at borders a

53、 wider variety of restraints than those typically applicable to goods apply beyond borders and hence within national markets Also since services generally have no tangible form and hence cannot be physically restrained at the border but typically foreign service providers need to have entry to the n

54、ational market for the service itself The entity that provides the service or service providers themselves may be restricted in terms of their mobilityand it is here that restraints on英文文献翻译services trade effectively operateBarriers to service provision may operate through entry barriers to local ma

55、rkets rights to establish or to provide services rules on conduct regulation on the number and size of competitors in a market competition rules and in other ways As a result many more barriers come into play with services than with goods trade They are more complex and their effects more numerous M

56、arket structure conduct and performance are all key and all need to be evaluated when discussing quantitative impacts of global liberalisation of services trade on poorer developing countries3THE REPRESENTATION AND MEASUREMENT OF BARRIERS TOSERVICES TRADE As noted earlier both characterising and mea

57、suring the size of barriers to the international flow of services is considerably more complex and nuanced than is true for barriers faced by international trade in goods and the problems encountered in this area also affect any discussion of the quantitative impacts of services trade liberalisation

58、 on developing countries Thinking on barriers facing international trade in goods in part reflects the structure of the 1967 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade incorporated into the Charter of the WTO as GATT 1994 The GATT structure tries to limit barriers to goods flows to transparent and bound

59、 tariffs which can then be negotiated down to progressively lower levelsThe principle of National Treatment no discrimination against foreign goods within national economies in the WTO Charter implies that all barriers apply only at the border as goods enter national markets This is typically throug

60、h a tariff or quota although quotas are formally banned under Article 11 of GATT 1994 in the WTO charter For services the structure under the 1994 GATT is different No national borders apply for services trade since there is no customs clearance Barriers to the free international flow of services ta

61、ke many other forms in place of tariffs regulation entry barriers restrictions on the mobility of service providers The structure of the GATS thus differs from the GATT for instance National Treatment does not stand as an automatic right and must be bargained for This all makes discussion of and cla

62、ssification of barriers to service flows more difficult than for goods since trade economists are usually drawn back to analogies with restrictions on goods flows and英文文献翻译look for tarifflike measures of barriers Many analogies can be misleading and evenultimately uninformativea Approaches to Classi

63、fying and Measuring Barriers to Services TradeThere are basically two different approaches used in the literature to classify barriers to trade in service items for the purposes of both measurement of their size and wider liberalisation discussion One is to separately examine the structure of regula

64、tion entry barriers and mobility restrictions in each service market Different restrictionsregulations apply say in banking from say road transport because of the differences in the characteristics of the service Under this approach a restriction on the value of reserves of a foreign bank to be reta

65、ined within a country is a different restriction to one which requires say that trucks at the border must enter with a full tank If they are converted into any comparable form in terms of economic impact this can be attempted by examining their cost implications However some restrictions imply a fixed cost for entering a market others change marginal costs others effectively set upper bounds on the quantity of service providedor establish minimum quality standards Comparing barriers and evaluating their impacts is thus inherently difficult and the heterogeneity among broad service types banki