管理咨询的逻辑思维、问题解决培训材料

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1、CE v5.6Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis GenerationSept. 2009-Confidential-PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedWhat We Will Cover Lay out a systematic approach to solving business problems Understand why developing hypotheses helps us focus our interventions and how we generat

2、e hypotheses Understand the steps within Root Cause AnalysisPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedThere are two basic approaches to problem solving; but both can workThe “theres a pony in here somewhere” approachThe structured analytic approachPotentialfor richpowerfulsolutionsScurry

3、around analyzing tons of data to see if you can find something usefulGet the dataPotential forgood (and mixed) solutionsDefineproblemandhypothesesPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedWhat is Structured Problem Solving? A formal approach to organising peoples thinking1.Define the Prob

4、lemUnderstand the problem statementFacilitate understanding of the issue2. Develop a HypothesisUsed to prove (or disprove) our logicWhich if “true” we can use to solve the underlying cause3. Structure the AnalysisUse a logical framework to analyse the problemUse the Root Cause Analysis to group your

5、 ideasTo help you solve a problem, your structure must disaggregate the problem into smaller and easier to solve components.PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questions Is there a problem or opportun

6、ity? If so where does it lie? Why does it exist? What could we do about it? What should we do about it?Fine, but I wish I knew how to do this.DEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONDevelop HypothesisPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedDefining the issue is the 1st

7、step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? -aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered

8、to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysisBecause “If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there.” AnonymousPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedHow do we define a problem?MECEMutu

9、ally Exclusive andComprehensivelyExhaustiveStart your thinking by being .PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedMutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you develop No overlapping or repeated ideas(only one home for each idea) No gaps o

10、r missing information(every idea has a home)If your ideas arent MECE they will be CRAP“Completely Redundant and Absolutely Pointless”PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedHow do we interpret MECE?HumanManWomenMarried ManSingle ManMarried WomenSingle WomenClarity of the problem up fron

11、t will set your subsequent analysis up to succeed!-ExamplePROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedIn structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitions园区优惠政策园区优惠政策ExerciseLevel 1Level 2个人购房补助企业营业税优惠企业增值税优惠自主创新费用和奖励就业人口奖励办公用房购置补

12、贴出口奖励企业所得税优惠个人所得税优惠安家绿色通道土地优惠。PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedIn structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitions园区优惠政策园区优惠政策Example: 园区政策园区政策Level 1Level 2人才政策企业政策企业财税优惠政策企业非财税优惠政策人才实物政策人才非实物政策Hint: 有时候可以考虑使用有时候可以考虑使

13、用“其他其他”-PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedHypothesis generation ensures that we get to the Root Cause of our clients problemForm HypothesesDefine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat yo

14、u should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis“Hypothesis: a Tentative Assumption made in order to draw out and test its lo

15、gical or empirical consequences” Websters DictionaryPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedHypotheses are developed in 3 steps What are the real strategic issues? What is the impact on the organisation? What are the priorities? We think . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be

16、 . . . The options could be . . . We believe this to be true . . . A series of statements, not yet backed by data Based on initial data search or expert opinionsA number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be validIs there a market for white label insurance products? Direct channels ar

17、e growing Retailers have a strong channel and brand There are existing productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting In low cost acquisitions and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123PROBLE

18、M_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedA hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impactThink through these 3 stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:“X is xxx” or “X is an opportunity ”What is the issue? What is the underly

19、ing opportunity? Where is the advantage?What do you think causes the issue? What are the key drivers of the process?What is the impact of the issue? How can we tell there is an opportunity? Why do we care?“ due to ”“ resulting in ”PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedExplicitly ties

20、your analysis to your problem definitionWhy hypotheses matterThey keep your effortHelps define the level of accuracy that mattersEnsures you analyze no more than is needed to disprove hypotheses within a reasonable doubtAllows quick check before massive data collection and crunching:“If we confirm o

21、ur belief in the hypothesis, will we be able to act on it?”Keeps you efficientOn TargetAccurateMinimalActionableOn TimePROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedHow to find a good hypothesisThink outside the Box:Start by Asking Questions:Talk to lots of people about the core problemBrains

22、torming during case team meetingAsk “5 Whys” Validate your initial Hypothesis:Assume perfect rationality how should the business system behave?Look for analogies (other industries or problems)Imagine that you had perfect information what would the ideal analysis look like?Think about the problem fro

23、m a different angleTalk to people who think differentlyPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedWhat if your hypothesis is proven wrong?You Win!Hypothesis-driven thinking requires frequent reviews of the prevailing and current hypotheses:“A wise man sometimes changes his mind, but a fool

24、 never” - Arabic ProverbIf proven wrong youve already made a big step towards answering your question!Do we still think they are right?Are we making progress towards disproving them?Are they at the right level of generality/predictiveness?PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedWhat is

25、Root Cause Analysis? Tool used to identify, record and visually represent the possible causes of a problem Digs down to the real problem - the root cause Breaks down - what can appear to be an impossible issue - into smaller, more easily, handled chunks This view focuses on the Fishbone techniquePRO

26、BLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedOverview of Fishbone TechniqueStep 1Step 2Step 3Step 4Step 5Step 6Step7Problem/ EffectCause 1Cause 2Cause 3Cause 4Cause 5Cause 6Sub-cause 1Sub-cause 2Sub-cause 1Sub-cause 2Identify Major Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm Sub-Root CausesGather

27、 DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely CauseSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedWe use a real estates problem as an example施工环节施工环节招标环节招标环节设计环节设计环节-设计优化设计优化设计环节设计环节-设设计空白计空白/遗漏遗漏设计环节设计环节-设设计冲突计冲突/不当不当预期外设预期外设计变更较计变更较多多不可预见工作量施工难点招标漏项清单漏项需

28、二次/深化设计界面划分不清提升价值降低造价纯粹设计不当专业间不吻合PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedStep 1: Identify the problem Clearly define the problem, or effect that is visible, on the right hand side of the fishbone diagram and draw an arrow to itWrite Problem Down on Right Hand SideStep 1aDraw an arrow to

29、 itStep 1bIdentify Major Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm Sub-Root CausesGather DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely CauseSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedStep 2: Categorise major causes Consider major themes under which poss

30、ible causes could be grouped: Do not exceed six major themes Add the themes to the main diagram, as shown belowProblem/ EffectTheme 1Theme 2Theme 3Theme 4Theme 5Theme 6Identify Major Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm Sub-Root CausesGather DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely Cau

31、seSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedStep 3: Brainstorm In the team: Brainstorm a list of sub-causes (follow the rules of brainstorming) Add the sub-causes to the fishbone diagram, using post-it notesProblem/ EffectTheme 1Theme 1Theme 3Theme 4Theme

32、5Theme 6Sub-cause 1Sub-cause 2Sub-cause 1Sub-cause 2Identify Major Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm Sub-Root CausesGather DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely CauseSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedStep 3: Brainstorming (Cont.

33、) As individuals: Identify five additional possible causes (no duplication of previous brainstorming session Write these causes on post-it notes and add to the diagram (combine any duplicate ideas on one post-it note) As a group: Agree when to meet next and take a breakProblem/ EffectTheme 1Theme 1T

34、heme 3Theme 4Theme 5Theme 6Sub-cause 1Sub-cause 2Sub-cause 3Sub-cause 4Identify Major Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm Sub-Root CausesGather DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely CauseSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedStep 4: G

35、ather data Gather as much data as possible about identified causes: Control charts Graphs Trendlines KPIs etc. Data can be used to identify for certain the most probable causes, and/or it can be used alongside all the other data/information the team has gatheredBreak in the session can allow time fo

36、r consideration as well as to gather the dataIdentify Major Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm Sub-Root CausesGather DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely CauseSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedStep 5: Identify most likely causes

37、 In the team: Analyse the data and information gathered Through open discussion, clarify and identify most likely causes Challenge each others ideas as necessary Rank most probable root causes through voting (each person ranks each probable cause on a 1-5 basis, where 1 is lowest, and 5, highest pro

38、bability) See left-hand graphic. Circle the top vote-getters on the fishbone diagram as probable root causes See right-hand graphic.Problem/ EffectTheme 1Theme 1Theme 3Theme 4Theme 5Theme 6Sub-cause 1Sub-cause 2Sub-cause 1Sub-cause 2Probable Causes:KeywordsARanking12345TotalBCDESampleIdentify Major

39、Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm Sub-Root CausesGather DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely CauseSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedStep 6: Choose most likely cause Reduce the probable root causes to one, by choosing the one ca

40、use that the team believes, if solved, will lead to resolution of the problem Use open discussion for this step (and if necessary, voting)Problem/ EffectTheme 1Theme 1Theme 3Theme 4Theme 5Theme 6Sub-cause 1(Identified by Team)Sub-cause 2(Identified by Team)Sub-cause 3(Identified by individual)Sub-ca

41、use 4(Identified by Team & Individual)Most likely to lead to problem resolutionIdentify Major Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm Sub-Root CausesGather DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely CauseSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedS

42、tep 7: Select and test the best solution Brainstorm a list of possible solutions to address the most probable cause Identify the top 5, or 6, preferred ideas and evaluate each idea against a number of relevant criteria Allow the best solution to emerge through continued discussion (more than one mee

43、ting if necessary) Test the solution (pilot it) and review its effectSelecting the Solution:Fixes the Root CauseCreates New ProblemsManagement ReceptivityGroup Can ImplementCostPossible Solutions(Yes/No)(Yes/No)(Yes/No)(Yes/No)(High/Low)SampleIdentify Major Root CausesIdentify the ProblemBrainstorm

44、Sub-Root CausesGather DataIdentify Most Likely CausesChoose Most Likely CauseSelect and Test the Best SolutionPROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreservedTeam Exercise: 为什么贝塔斯曼书友会亏损严重，最终退出中国为什么贝塔斯曼书友会亏损严重，最终退出中国市场市场Theme 1Theme 2Theme 6Sub-cause?Sub-cause?Sub-cause?Sub-cause?Theme 4Theme 3Theme 5