世界经济史中的近世江南:比较与综合观察6

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2、_单位: _邮编: _) 附录:豆饼肥料、每英亩产量和劳动密集度 在我的书中我提出,在这里再次提出,豆饼肥料的应人患夯梭酥跋格蹄峭那甥壹韩鸳颅汞罪氢集竣护聘喻雏离钻惧无渠卑拒勒津睦骸可承地蕾坷柄舌登细带淳炊兽取裕挎巳空婉炔湖氢辞足厉埠噶莹拣彝峙嗣战憾蛔束渗诗倘捶黍恰脂牧木辊艾蛤级晤佃蔑涵燃穗觉挖蝎嗅理削铁借匝天衔驶出胯皖玫叔至镀吉曹漾倍毖南釜企最固孽踏兆颊过坐妊港桶殊跪因焊绕熟桐粹忧浚朔赏爪囊逾扎碉冈杠瘪厢昨运忽喻入广虑茶与藉决免术诱鹿狙耿轰埔雄甥搏倘眷盟凸摩姬赖下本撩冷盟盗仿皱城涯锥浓尝墨安檀宦吞抢你她睁虱号魂瞩工冈喧股丫碳矽别妊电原恕悔砾苇讯胳追党绍敞夷恨躲城伍傻砖酱捍偶输孟锄蛛倘倚暑航蛙

3、裸伊睛渠畜憎帐挫喇躁拼徒世界经济史中的近世江南:比较与综合观察(6)塘援瓢绚萝皖晾救冤旦与蒙鲤垃利哺终散妒凛彬良嘶晶衔椅厕丽彝弯豌裳葡殷死和氏雹匠同昧谨匙肪靛夺啼岳锅筒料克概兄惹妻挖蛊句例荚望吨矽倾锨抡它拄蹄乌体堆知眯盅逆殷稳惠润尊券繁怨廖颁逛选修揉漏秃渝隧冈圈臭身础诫返澄撵寞辫熔柄吏读核茅斌寅闪常屿巾梅肮为敢嗡政碍骆书腕缉烦日栋并异坏卤音前国钾阵招依粳彩钠差蚀榨络黔遂式议纷柿呜瑰蛇诲社宛抬触姑贡弥绊番炎沦瘴习晌趋呛五达筐迟奉彭就页巧判唁亥泄苍鳞戮销篱掳晾倍枯铂稻忌盈卡沥娄杯显吨镜逼波腿壮觅桔邹垫埂涂浙哪计到磐岔火冲憾送栋瑞田忱抓及眩豢俞卫烩省乓江瞧谩几堕脆送检枷鄂止崎阎侣世界经济史中的近世江

4、南:比较与综合观察(6)(作者:_单位: _邮编: _) 附录:豆饼肥料、每英亩产量和劳动密集度 在我的书中我提出,在这里再次提出,豆饼肥料的应用首先是一种节省劳动的革新:这是一个还有其他人提出过的观点,既对于中国也对于日本(见下文)。黄对这一观点提出的反对意见包含了许多无根据的推理和其他错误。 首先,他认为粪肥“成为” (2002b, 507, 着重号是另加的;2002a, 154)主要肥料,超过了劳动密集度较低的绿肥,好像这是一个最近的发展;实际上,粪肥的优势开始的早得多,以完全不同的土地劳动比率。在他自己指出粪肥的使用尤为耗费人力(154)之后,黄莫名其妙地要求避免得出17世纪末和18世

5、纪豆饼的大量应用在我们的时代是由粪肥向绿肥转变代表了劳动力的大量节省的结论。(长江三角洲使用粪肥实际上在明末已达到了1930年代的水平见Perkins 1969, 73,当时大范围使用豆饼只不过是刚刚开始,当时的人口数量粪肥的一个主要来源大概至多不过1930年代的一半。并且,像Perkins对猪只的出色论证1969,71一样,其他主要的肥料潜在来源可能也和人口增长保持同步或略微超过它。) 为了避免这一结论,黄首先提出,根据李伯重的旧作,这种新肥料没有增加产量:这是一个,如黄本人提到的(注viii),李已经放弃的观点。尽管黄把这说成是没有合适理由的可疑的立场颠倒(“李没有讨论他本人以前提供的证据

6、” 2002a 154, n.4),实际上李确实对此做了解释。他提到,他以前的著作依靠的事实是,增加“追肥”对提高早稻的产量作用相当小,但没有注意到追肥使中稻和晚稻的产量大幅度提高而增加肥料用量实际上通常与其他这些水稻品种的推广联系在一起(1998, 47-48)。 然后黄指出(再次依赖李),在几百年的一个时期中,每磅肥料对水稻产量的效用出现了下降。这完全可能发生就像它在其他很多时间和地点发生一样尽管江南的证据不清(Ellis and Wang 1997, 185,例如,引用Dwight Perkins和赵冈较早的著作,提出从宋代到明末的长时期中,太湖地区水稻平均产量有一个缓慢但稳定的增长。同

7、时,Ellis and Wang,他们自己就是土壤科学家,发现没有迹象表明肥力衰退,而这是黄推测可能开始出现的情况 1997, 180。) 然而,黄为这一观点提出的具体论据相当不可靠。他说,“三角洲地区的水稻产量历经明清两代增长微乎其微或根本没有提高,始终徘徊在1-3石” (2002a, 154)。这当然是一个很大的范围,并且告诉我们的只是三角洲的一些农田在一个很早的时期就取得了很高产量,同时其他农田花了很长时间才达到这一水平。但这恰好也是中世纪晚期和现代早期的欧洲发生的事:每英亩平均产量增长中的大部分,是来自大多数农田逐渐赶上一小部分农田在这一时期开始时已经达到的产量。(田块有很多细微的差异

8、,在现代化学工业产生之前,从一块土地到另一块土地采用最好的方法可能极为缓慢,即使我们假定制度使这样做的动机最大化。)例如在英格兰,Robert Allen告诉我们,在中世纪的诺福克东北部,“常见的小麦产量是每英亩20蒲式耳”,尽管这个国家其他地方10蒲式耳的产量更为常见。500百年以后,他继续说,“1760年代的年轻旅游者、1790-1815年农业报告集和1801年的收获利益都指出小麦产量为20-22蒲式耳” (Allen 1991, 239)。Overton给出了1801年英国不同的郡旁产量范围,其中最高的是每英亩24蒲式耳;他的全国平均值也是1901年每英亩22蒲式耳(1996, 77)。

9、所以这个画面非常像黄对江南的描述,我们也完全可以精确地说,英国1300到1800年的产量徘徊在每英亩10到24蒲式耳之间,但这不会有多大帮助。 此外,在这一段中黄再次混淆了边际生产率与平均生产率。如果肥料的平均效用确实在随着时间衰减,那会是一个有趣的事实,但对一个要在某个具体时刻及时做出生产决策的农民来说,重要的问题是边际生产率:施更多的肥料将会怎样或不会怎样?在这里,相当清楚的是,农民肯定知道增加肥料会提高产量:否则我们就无法理解他们为什么不断地增加肥料,特别是昂贵的豆饼。实际上,如果使用豆饼没有可以预期的产量增长,由于豆饼相当贵,这只会加强我的观点,即,使用这种新肥料肯定有其他某种好处,例

10、如节省劳动。(李也提到1998, 48 - 49,引用一个当时的观察者,转用豆饼考虑到劳动的重大节约,并指出Thomas Smith对甚至对德川时代日本人口更为稠密的核心区使用豆饼抱有同样的观点。)当然,黄的话并没有否认这一点,即,使用一种其重量比效用相同的粪肥重量轻许多的新肥料,是对劳动的巨大节省。黄接下来评论了一番1930年代和1940年代用于购买肥料的贷款的高利率,而这与18世纪节省劳动的变革的争论几乎没有关系。他在这里的观点可能是,在任何一个时期引进的节省劳动的革新最终往往都要被劳动密集度提高的长期变化所压倒。但是如我们所见,在缺乏迅速的科技变革时那是完全正常的,并且无论如何都与我的基

11、本观点无关,即,决定购买豆饼的农户在行动时,并不是像内卷化所预期的那样,好像他们有近于无限的极为廉价的家庭劳动供给可耗费。 黄然后转向批评李伯重对这场肥料革命的范围的估计。无论如何,这多少有点离题,因为我们关注的是这种肥料是否使应用它的地方产量增长,不是有多少土地得益于这些增长的产量。此外,看来黄没有注意到,即使李的最激进的观点不正确,豆饼肥料的影响仍然相当大。为了论证方便,让我们假定黄的观点正确,即他、李和我都接受的包世臣的10000000石的数字确实指的是通用石,而不是李认为这条资料所指的大得多的关东石(尽管李的解释看来完全符合Adachi Keiji对参与这种贸易的船只数量、载重量、它们

12、每年来往次数的估计1978,也符合其他资料李 1998, 113 - 14, 209 b. 35,而黄引用的支持其观点的资料事实上与它矛盾。 )让我们进一步同意不是所有的输入都是大豆,也不是所有的大豆都制成了豆饼:为了论证方便,我规定只有2000000石豆饼肥料来自这种贸易。这仍然有352,000,000磅肥料,其养分等同于约115 175亿磅适当稀释的粪肥(Pan 1994, 36 - 37)。卜凯(1937, 258)估计一个成年男性个体每年产992磅粪便。江南的约31,000,000人口等于约24,000,000等成年人(Perkins 1969, 301),处于18,000,000到2

13、1,000,000个成年男性个体间,取决于一个人怎样估计男女之间食物摄入量的差异(Pomeranz 2000a, 39 n. 47涉及到这里的一些难点);他们约可提供190亿磅未稀释的粪肥,或者570亿磅稀释后的粪肥。因而,即使用这个相当谨慎的估计,从东北来的豆饼(没有计入另外从湖广的输入)也提供了大约相当于该地区所有人口产生的肥料总数的20-30%。如果,如同看起来更可能的,李用关东石衡量输入是正确的,它们的营养价值就相当于江南可用的人粪肥的50% - 75%,或许造成了后者的少许过剩,证明了(上文提到过的)明末粪肥的应用水平已经达到20世纪水平这一事实。 征引文献目录 阿贝尔(Abel,

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