战略和互联网的发展趋势

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1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter StangerE-COMMERCE IS DEAD “E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce”- The Industry Standard, April 2000 “Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”- F, April 2000 “Can you build a brand online selling third-pa

2、rty goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”- Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read “The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever

3、seen.”- Warren Packard, Draper Fisher JurvetsonTOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems “If you cant generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I dont think anyone will survive. They are all gone.”THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRON

4、G020406080100120Peak Market CapCurrent Market CapTravelocityBExpediaDEPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4B020406080100120Peak Market CapCurrent Market Cap020406080100120Peak Market CapCurrent Market CapIS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860

5、- 18901895 - 1925FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cottonEngland 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-20191019151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95Lower processing costs . with increased throughput .Fiber cap

6、acityTime1050104103102 and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of connectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+ 2cF+ 3cF+ 4cF+ 5cF+ 6cF+ 7cF+ 8cF+ 9cF+ 10cF+ ncValue, costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connections low

7、er storage costs .$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize (GB)Cost ($/MB)0.000.200.400.600.801.001995199619971998199920002001200220030255075100LONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingRetailSales/

8、marketingAccount managementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailRetailNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesWholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesNetwork management/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrat

9、ionManufac-turingSales & marketingIncreased development costsRole of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales & marketingAcademic labsBiotech firmsContract research organizationsContractmfrsPBMsJVs/licen

10、singELECTRIC UTILITIESCOMPUTER INDUSTRYAT&T, MCI and Sprint fragmented radicallyMicroprocessors, integrated circuits, memory chipsComputersOperating systemsApplications softwareMarketing, sales, and distributionCommon standardsTime based competition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixCompaqDellApplePackard Bel

11、lIBMDOS and WindowsUNIXMac OSOS/2Microsoft OfficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSuperstoresOn-lineMail orderNeXtIBM , Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackward integration to reduce riskForward integration to open supply channelsScale through focusing on huge power plantsSynergy throu

12、gh bundling capabilities of general trading and energy businessNew services for the customerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNational Power (UK)Electrobel (Belgium)RWE (Germany)Norsk Kraftmegling (Norway)EnronUnited Utilities (UK)South-ernWaterEastern Elect-ricity (UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en (Ger-many)1990199519851

13、990Statkraft (Norway)Oslo Energi (Norway)EVO (Germany)IVO (Finland)MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example CameraFilmEquipmentPaper, chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/ enlargeStore/ display Sh

14、are with othersProcessingAnalog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominateMajor players (2000 U.S. market share) Canon Nikon Olympus Minolta Kodak Fuji Kodak (66%) Fuji Kodak (Qualex) (40%) Fuji Photohuts Album manufacturers Frame manufacturers Mail servicesdisposablesCameraManipulation Crop Alter pixelsPr

15、interPaper, inkReprint/ enlargeStore/displayShare with othersProcessing (at home)Digital value chain HP, Sony and others well-positionedMajor players (2000 U.S. market share) Sony (35%) HP (19%) Olympus (13%) Kodak (12%) HP (70%) Lexmark Epson HP Lexmark Epson Kodak PC IBM microdrive Sony Compact Fl

16、ash E-mail posting Personal Web site Zing Shutterfly Snapfish Ofoto Others Adobe (Photoshop) Standard with camera and available free online0102030405060701998199920002001ProjectionEXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES65.117.8Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0, Shop.org s

17、urveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group; SEC filings; Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data; industry association reports; analyst reportsNote: Excludes financial brokerage11.515.2North American Business-to-Consumer Revenues ($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Online channel 10% share in several

18、 categoriesCATALOGUERS ARE WINNING-6713-44-94-3612-15-181-200-150-100-50050100Web-BasedRetailersStore BasedRetailersCatalog BasedRetailersAll Companies EBIT Margin in % of Revenues19992000Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0, 4.0; Shop.org Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting GroupAD

19、VANTAGE INCUMBENTSOnline RetailingDsMarketplacesCLECsCataloguersGE, Big 3ILECs/IXCsB2BTelecomRENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALSIPO valueCash flowGrowth = valueProfitable growth = valueCustomer acquisitionSegmentationInternet timeCompetitive advantageTHE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES A

20、HEAD0204060801001201401950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 201005001,0001,5002,0002,500Illustrative view of transforming forces, Circa 2010Technology) GlobalizationDeregulationElectroniccommerceSource: BCG analysisDeregulationandglobalizationindex(1999=100)Technology andelectroniccommer

21、ce index(1999=100)00.511.5205101520253035A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!Asset turns(sales/ assets)Cash flow margin in % of sales(%)RetailConstruction MachineryAutomobileChemicalsUtilitiesReal EstateAirlineAuto partsAerospaceTelecomSource: BCG AnalysisA PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!Access Fibre Wireless SatelliteAsset productivity focuse-Procuremente-SalesMargin focusOpportunity SpaceSource: BCG Analysis