第三次工业革命与中国梦

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1、第三次工业革命与中国梦前两百年中发生的两次工业革命，为人类发展工业文明奠定了基础，但也产生了严重的后遗症，从而诱发了各种生态危机。生态文明是超越工业文明的新的文明形态。它以尊重自然、顺应自然、保护自然为核心理念。近年来，以计算机和互联网为代表的信息技术的飞速发展，进一步提高了近代工业的效率，也为节约资源和改善生态创造了一定条件，但如果发展的理念没有改变，仍然沿用“先污染、后治理”的老办法，就不可能治愈前两次工业革命的后遗症。总之，社会的进一步发展，将强烈要求改变工业文明的发展模式，推动第三次工业革命，实现向新的生态文明过渡。美国著名未来学家杰里米里夫金在他的第三次工业革命一书中提出，经济和社会

2、变革总是来自新能源与新通信方式的交汇。在接下来的半个世纪里，第一次和第二次工业革命形成的传统的集中的经营活动，将被第三次工业革命的分散经营方式取代。英国经济学家保罗麦基里认为，一场新工业革命即将到来，它以“制造业数字化”为核心，并将使全球技术要素和市场要素配置方式发生革命性变化。尽管目前对工业革命发生过几次、新工业革命的主导技术是什么等存在不同的看法，但对于人类正在迎来一场新工业革命的判断，已成共识。同时，互联网、新能源、新材料、数字制造技术等，已成为这场变革的基本技术特征，而引领这场工业革命的，正是人类社会对建设生态文明的强烈需求。在生态文明的视野中，技术可分为资源开发技术、生态保护技术和共

3、性技术等。资源开发技术要优先发展新能源技术和节能减排技术。生态保护技术包括清洁生产技术、废弃物利用技术、污染防治和治理技术、环境监测技术等。共性技术如信息技术、新材料技术和先进制造技术等，将渗透到上述所有技术之中。由于技术对生态的影响难于在事前正确预测，因此，必须根据建设生态文明的要求，对技术进行动态选择和最终的检验。建设生态文明将是一个涉及技术、社会和生态三大系统相互作用的长期而复杂的过程。第三次工业革命只是向生态文明过渡的开始。只有解决了人与人之间的和谐问题，才能彻底解决人与自然的和谐问题。前两次工业革命的历史表明，哪个国家位于新工业革命的发展前列，哪个国家就取得先发优势。近代大国如英国和

4、美国的崛起，和他们能够主导当时的工业革命密切相关。第一次工业革命时，中国正处于康乾盛世后期，GDP稳居世界第一，但闭关锁国，让我们没有跟上这次工业革命，到了1840年就使中国饱尝苦果。第二次工业革命时，我们正在军阀混战，又被这场工业革命甩下。即将来临的第三次工业革命，正值中国再次崛起。可以预料，对于第三次工业革命，大国之间的竞争，将比前两次更加激烈。谁能主导这场工业革命，谁就可能主导未来的一个世纪。中国自改革开放以来，经济高速增长，用30多年时间，走完了西方发达国家200多年的工业化进程，巨大的成绩有目共睹。但是，中国人口众多，资源有限，完全效仿西方发达国家的工业化道路，一定会遇到资源超前消费

5、、生态环境恶化的发展瓶颈。危机与机遇共生，目前的困境，对中国推动第三次工业革命，出现了一种“倒逼”机制。随着经济不断增长，能源消费的持续增长是一个客观规律。1960年代到现在，能源消费增长速度更快，能源消费的格局也发生了巨大变化。1960年代美国占全球能源消费的35%，中国仅占5%；现在中国增长到22%，美国却下降到17%。全球煤炭消费中国占了50%还多。中国的石油消费现在一半以上靠进口。由石化燃料产生的温室气体排放量，中国现在也已超过美国。我国中东部持续出现的雾霾天气和PM2.5严重超标，正在警示我们，保护生态环境已经迫在眉睫。为此，我们必须改变经济发展的理念。过去这种以大量能源消耗和牺牲环

6、境为代价的经济增长，必然与生态处于不可调和的矛盾状态。我们必须在GDP的增长速度和改善生态环境之间找到平衡点。推进以建设生态文明建设为核心的第三次工业革命，必将助推美丽中国梦。它不但不会影响中国未来的经济增长，反而会有利于改变经济增长模式。中国有自己的优势。首先，中国拥有发展新能源优良的资源和环境禀赋；其次，中国的高新技术特别是信息技术，已有了较好的发展基础；第三，中国正在进行积极的改革，为技术创新提供良好环境。实际上，技术的首创或模仿，对经济发展的影响，是大不相同的。中国必须主导开发一批有自主知识产权的创新技术，抢占第三次工业革命的制高点。QcWA3PtGZ7R4I30kA1DkaGhn3X

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