中国北方第三季度房地产市场概述 Property Market Overview Q3North China

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1、Property Market Overview Q3 2011 North ChinaPrepared for: Mitsui17 October 2011139 CBRE Research1China Economic Update31.1City Macroeconomic Indicators32Major Policy Change52.1State Level Policies52.2Local Policies73Market Transaction Update93.1En Bloc Property Transactions93.2Land Transactions114Be

2、ijing Property Market Overview144.1Grade A Office Market144.2Prime Retail Market274.3Secondary Retail Market374.4Serviced Apartments Market415Dalian Property Market Overview535.1Grade A Office Market535.2Prime Retail Market615.3Serviced Apartments Market696Qingdao Property Market Overview766.1Grade

3、A Office Market766.2Prime Retail Market826.3Serviced Apartments Market917Tianjin Property Market Overview977.1Grade A Office Market977.2Prime Retail Market1047.3Serviced Apartments Market1138Shenyang Property Market Overview1208.1Grade A Office Market1208.2Prime Retail Market1278.3Serviced Apartment

4、s Market1371 China Economic Update1.1 City Macroeconomic IndicatorsTable 1GDP(RMB billion)Growth Rate of Total Fixed Asset Investment(Y-o-Y, %)Growth Rate of Real Estate Development Investment(Y-o-Y, %)CPI (Y-o-Y, %)Actual Foreign Direct Investment (USD billion)Total Retail Sales(RMB billion)Beijing

5、2004606.017.222.5101.03.08262.72005688.611.83.5101.53.53290.32006768.119.312.8100.94.55327.52007935.317.716.0102.45.07380.020081048.8-3.0-4.4105.16.08458.920091186.626.222.598.56.12531.020101377.810.224.1102.46.36622.92011Q1350.920.114.0105.2n.a160.72011Q2741.815.63.7105.52.14323.12011Q3-Dalian20041

6、96.241.338.198.02.2064.52005215.055.023.3100.63.0073.22006257.032.327.1102.62.2583.92007313.131.420.9101.43.1698.32008385.830.221.6101.45.01118.32009441.830.216.8100.26.02139.72010515.815.290.7102.710.03164.02011Q1129.030.334.1104.82.3345.42011Q2304.630.744.4105.64.6790.82011Q3-Qingdao2004227.038.72

7、7.3102.13.8274.72005269.645.037.6102.33.6686.62006320.719.819.9100.93.66100.72007378.723.320.1104.53.81119.92008443.623.516.0104.72.64146.52009489.025.323.1100.51.86174.42010566.622.931.1102.22.84190.32011Q1132.224.253.0103.80.9652.92011Q2301.723.639.1104.72.20104.92011Q3-Tianjin2004311.120.324.8102

8、.32.47104.52005369.720.524.1101.53.33119.02006434.422.022.8101.54.13135.72007505.029.125.6104.25.28160.42008635.442.529.4105.47.42200.02009750.147.112.599.09.02243.12010910.930.117.9103.510.85290.32011Q1225.730.125.4103.63.5580.72011Q2509.933.330.5104.37.23163.22011Q3-Shenyang2004190.166.793.2102.22

9、.4280.92005208.440.320.7100.72.1291.52006248.331.330.2101.83.03104.92007307.431.935.7104.55.04123.22008386.127.438.4104.46.00150.62009435.922.217.699.95.41177.92010501.736.231.9102.95.05206.62011Q1126.329.119.5105.01.5258.12011Q2286.330.623.2105.53.15115.52011Q3-2 Major Policy Change2.1 State Level

10、Policies2.1.1 The PBC raised the RMB reserve requirement ratio for depository financial institutions for the third times-PBOCKey point: The PBC decided to raise the RMB reserve requirement ratio for depository financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, effective from July 7, 2011.%Before Adjus

11、tmentAfter Adjustment1. Household and corporate deposits1.1 Demand deposits0.50 0.50 1.2 Time deposits of lump-sum deposit and withdrawal3-month2.85 3.10 6-month3.05 3.30 1-year3.25 3.50 2- year4.15 4.40 3-year4.75 5.00 5- year5.25 5.50 2. Loans6-month5.85 6.10 1-year6.31 6.56 1 to 3-year6.40 6.65 3

12、 to 5-year6.65 6.90 Over 5-year6.80 7.05 3. Personal housing provident fund loansBelow 5-year (inclusive)4.20 4.45 Above 5-year4.70 4.90 Implications: Further tightened monetary policy to against inflation.2.2 Local Policies2.2.1 Beijing Local PoliciesJun 8, Beijing released Sample Text of Housing C

13、onstruction Instruction Manual- National Development and Reform CommissionKey point: On 8 June, the National Development and Reform Commission released the full text of the National Main Functional Area Planning”, which is the first national land development planning. The main functional area develo

14、pment strategy is divided into three categories including urbanised areas, agricultural areas and ecological areas, as well as four patterns including optimised development, key development, restricted development and prohibited development areas. The National Development and Reform Commission also

15、revealed that provincial main functional area planning are in draft stage and will be linked up to the National Main Functional Area Planning.2.2.2 Qingdao Local PoliciesAugust 26, The property tax for Non-residential- Qingdao Territories Resources and House Administration BureauKey point: Owner of

16、non-residential must provide the certificate of land tax, property tax and other tax when transferring properties. If not, the owner of the property must pay the above tax; According to the notice, the annual property tax = the original value of the property (1-30%)1.2%, the tax year is the holding

17、period but less than 3 year.Implications: Adding tax on the non-residential properties will strengthen the restriction on home purchases.3 Market Transaction Update3.1 En Bloc Property Transactions3.1.1 Beijing En Bloc Transactions in Q3 11Name of PropertyLocationProperty TypeBuyerSellerTransaction

18、Price (million RMB)IBMCC (Red Diamond Building)红钻大厦HaidianBIZ ParkKai Long REI凯龙瑞CapitaLand and CITIC Trust凯德&中信信托261In the third quarter of 2011, only one en bloc transaction was done in Beijing, Kai Long REI purchasing Red Diamond Building for RMB 261 million from CapitaLand and CITIC Trust. The r

19、ed diamond building is a 22,667-sm business park office building located in Beijings Zhongguancun Software Park, one of the most established business parks in the capital. The property is a single-tenant, low-rise office building currently being used as an R&D centre by IBM China.3.1.2 Qingdao En Bl

20、oc Transactions in Q3 11Name of PropertyLocationProperty TypeBuyerSellerTransaction Price (million RMB)Central Avenue Mall中央大道商场LaoshanUnderground RetailTreasure Holding财富控股Qingdao Sanyang Real Estate三阳置业477In the third quarter of 2011, the only en bloc transaction was done by Treasure Holding with

21、the consideration for RMB 477 million on the purchase of the Central Avenue from Qingdao Sanyang Real Estate. This project is an underground project for retail use in Laoshan district. The project has the planned GFA of 350,000 sm, which the developer acquired the land use right with the total amoun

22、t of RMB 202 million in 2008.3.1.3 Tianjin En Bloc Transactions in Q3 11Name of PropertyLocationProperty TypeBuyerSellerTransaction Price (million RMB)Rongsheng Building融盛大楼HepingOfficeTianjin Branch of China National Tobacco Corporation中国烟草公司天津分公司Tianjin Jinrongcheng Real Estate Development Co., Lt

23、d天津金融城开发有限公司330One en-bloc transaction was completed in this quarter in Tianjin. The Tianjin Branch of China National Tobacco Corporation acquired the Rongsheng Building with the consideration of RMB 330 million for self-use. This project is located in Heping district with a total GFA of 15,655 sm.3

24、.1.4 Shenyang En Bloc Transactions in Q3 11Name of PropertyLocationProperty TypeBuyerSellerTransaction Price (million RMB)Huayin Building华银大厦HepingOfficeChina Minsheng Banking Co. Ltd.中国民生银行股份有限公司Shenyang Jinhuayin Real Estate Development Co. Ltd.沈阳市金华银房地产开发有限公司562On Sep. 1st, China Minsheng Banking

25、 Co., Ltd announced the acquisition of Shenyang Huayin Building (1-2 floors and 7-26 floors) which is located in Nanjing North Street of Heping District. Huayin Building was developed by Shenyang Jinhuayin Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. The deal costs China Minsheng Banking Co., Ltd RMB 562 milli

26、on on acquiring a total office area of 34,506 sm, which will be used as Minshang Banks Shenyang Branchs. After the transaction, the name of Huayin Building will be changed as Minsheng Bank Building, and it is expected to start operation by the end of this year.3.2 Land Transactions3.2.1 Beijing Majo

27、r Land Transactions in Q3 11Land BulletinLocationLand UseBuyerAreaTransaction Price (RMB)115ChaoyangCommercialConsortium of Peking University Founder Group Co., Ltd/Liantong Rental Group Co., Ltd/Anbang Property & Casualty Insurance Co., Ltd/TCITIC Group北大方正集团有限公司/联通租赁集团有限公司/安邦财产保险股份有限公司/中国中信集团公司投标联

28、合体8,0463,450,000,000116ChaoyangCommercialConsortium of Taikang Life Insurance Co., Ltd/CITIC Real Estate Co., Ltd/Hexie Straits Credit Guarantee Co., Ltd/TCITIC Group泰康人寿保险股份有限公司/中信房地产股份有限公司/和协海峡信用担保有限公司/中国中信集团公司投标联合体8,4273,080,000,000113ChaoyangResidentialConsortium of China Investment Corporation

29、(CIC) and CITIC Group中国投资有限责任公司和中国中信集团公司投标联合体8,468 2,880,000,000 In the third quarter of 2011, altogether 58 land plot transactions were completed in Beijing, totaling an area of 3,132,530 sm. Land for industrial use was sought after, with 22 transactions being completed, involving an area of 880,44

30、4 sm, amounting to 28% of the total. 17 plots of land for residential use were transacted with an area of 1,173,444 sm, amounting to 37.5% of the total. The rest 19 plots of land for commercial, mixed use and hospitality were transacted with an area of 1,078,642 sm, amounting to 34.5% of the total.3

31、.2.2 Dalian Major Land Transactions in Q3 11Land BulletinLocationLand UseBuyerArea (sm)Transaction Price (RMB)DCX(2011)-36ShahekouMixed UseDalian Rongyu Investment Co., LtdDalian Dehong Real Estate Co., LtdDalian Kunpeng Real Estate Development Co., Ltd大连融裕投资有限公司大连德宏置业有限公司大连鲲鹏房地产开发有限公司35,6001,815,60

32、0,000 DL(2011)-7ZhongshanMixed UseShangri-La Dalian Hotel Co., Ltd大连香格里拉酒店有限公司5,900 206,100,000DZ(2011)-27ZhongshanCommercialDalian Yifeng Real Estate Development Co., LtdYingfeng Investment Co., Ltd大连亿峰房地产开发有限公司盈峰投资有限公司18,500624,370,000In the third quarter of 2011, altogether 39 land plot transacti

33、ons were completed in Dalian, totaling a land area of 2,486,224 sm, of which 14 plots were residential land, involving an area of 1,283,151 sm, which accounts for 51.6% of the total. Meanwhile, 13 plots of land for commercial and mixed use were transacted with an area of 535,670 sm, amounting to 21.

34、6% of the total. 12 plots of land for industrial use were transacted with an area of 667,403 sm, amounting to 26.8% of the total.3.2.3 Qingdao Major Land Transactions in Q3 11Land transaction deals are concentrated in the major areas of Qingdao, including downtown area, Huangdao and Chengyang Distri

35、ct.Land BulletinLocationLand UseBuyerGFA(sm)Transaction Price (RMB)QD036ShinanMixed useCRLAND Qingdao Co., Ltd华润置地501,2924,511,620,000QD038SifangResidentialQingdao Zhuoyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd青岛卓远置业有限公司164,531613,701,376QD045LicangResidentialQngdao Kangtaiyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd青岛康太源房地产开发有限公司110,

36、627398,256,750QD088ChengyangResidentialCCGRP Chengyang Branch中交地产青岛城阳置业有限公司144,564366,851,389In the third quarter of 2011, a total of 90 land plot transactions were completed in Qingdao, totaling an area of 3,220,781 sm. Among these plots, 25 transactions involved land zoned for industrial use, with

37、 the planned GFA of 1,004,421 sm and amounting to 31.19% of the total. Meanwhile, the planned GFA of land for residential, commercial and mixed use was 907,835 sm, 438,749 sm and 136,616 sm respectively. Other uses have total area of 733,161 sm3.2.4 Tianjin Major Land Transactions in Q3 11Land Bulle

38、tinLocationLand UseBuyerArea (sm)Transaction Price (RMB)Jinnanchang (listing) No. 2011-034NankaiCommercialFinancial Street (Tianjin) Property Co., Lt金融街(天津)置业有限公司33,500 2,360,000,000 Jinnanchang (listing) No. 2011-034NankaiResidentialFinancial Street (Tianjin) Property Co., Lt金融街(天津)置业有限公司44,099 Jin

39、xijie (listing) No. 2011-188HexiMixed useTianjin Poly Sunac Investment Co., Ltd.天津保利融创投资有限公司117,674 2,299,000,000 Jinxi Jiefang (listing) No. 2011-178HexiResidentialTianjin Chengtou Property Investment and Development Co., Ltd天津城投置地投资发展有限公司109,6771,533,700,000 Jinxi Jiefang (listing) No. 2011-177Hex

40、iResidentialTianjin Chengtou Property Investment and Development Co., Ltd天津城投置地投资发展有限公司44,872587,800,000 Jinxi Jiefang (listing) No. 2011-176HexiResidentialTianjin Chengtou Property Investment and Development Co., Ltd天津城投置地投资发展有限公司61,551892,600,000 In the third quarter of 2011, altogether 291 land t

41、ransactions covering a total land area of 18,067,308 sm were concluded in Tianjin. Land for industrial use remained the largest proportion, with 177 transactions being completed, involving an area of 11,403,637 sm, amounting to 63.1% of the total. 45 plots of land for commercial and mixed use were t

42、ransacted with an area of 2,088,096 sm, amounting to 11.6% of the total. Meanwhile, land for residential use concluded 69 transactions with a total area of 4,575,575 sm, amounting to 25.3% of the total.3.2.5 Shenyang Major Land Transactions in Q3 11Land BulletinLocationLand UseBuyerArea (sm)Transact

43、ion Price (RMB)2010-037ShenheCommercialShanghai Yuyuan Mart Real Estate Development Co. Ltd.上海豫园商城房地产发展有限公司32,265735,637,440DL-1125DonglingMixed UseDalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. Ltd.大连万达商业地产股份有限公司71,084744,360,085JK2011-412TiexiIndustrialShenyang Brilliant Elevator Co. Ltd.沈阳博林特电梯股份有限公司49,4

44、0723,863,818JK2011-414TiexiIndustrialShenyang Brilliant Elevator Co. Ltd.沈阳博林特电梯股份有限公司38,36318,529,508In the third quarter of 2011, Shenyang land market was featured by active transactions. Totally 250 land plot transactions were completed in Shenyang, with a total area of 11,420,180 sm. Among these

45、 plots, 135 transactions were for industrial use, involving a land area of 5,588,275 sm, adding up to 48.9% of the total. 66 plots of land for residential use were transacted with an area of 3,986,560 sm, amounting to 34.9% of the total. 46 land transactions for commercial and mixed use were complet

46、ed with a total area of 1,751,740 sm, amounting to 15.3% of the total.4 Beijing Property Market Overview4.1 Grade A Office Market4.1.1 Grade A Office Market OverviewGrade A Offices in Beijing are concentrated in six main commercial areas, including CBD, Financial Street, Zhonguancun, Lufthansa, East

47、 2nd Ring Road as well as Wangfujing. ABCDEFA. CBD 商务中心区B. Financial Street金融街C. Zhongguancun 中关村D. Lufthansa燕莎E&F. East 2nd Ring Road & Wangfujing 东二环及王府井A. CBD 商务中心区The CBD area is the largest prime office submarket in Beijing and has the highest concentration of quality office premises. The devel

48、opment of the CBD can be attributed to the governments long term urban planning strategy and its proximity to the embassy area and foreign offices. Over 50% of foreign-funded enterprises in Beijing have offices here and this critical mass of international services and facilities contributes to the C

49、BDs prominence.CLGKFJMIHEABDNOPGIKJMap Ref.PropertyDeveloperOffice GFA (sm)Year of CompletionAChina World Trade Centre中国国际贸易中心Beijing China World Trade Center Co., Ltd北京国际贸易中心有限公司63,0001989BKerry Centre嘉里中心Beijing Jia Ao Real Estate Development Co., Ltd.北京嘉奥房地产开发有限公司79,0651998CChina World Trade Cent

50、re (Phase 2)中国国际贸易中心二期Beijing China World Trade Center Co., Ltd北京国际贸易中心有限公司60,0001999DNCI Tower新华保险大厦Beijing Chengzhong Tower Real Estate Co. Ltd.北京成中大厦房地产有限公司70,0002005ETwin Towers双子座大厦LG (Beijing) Building Development Co., Ltd.LG大厦开发有限公司80,0852005FSK TowerSK大厦Beijing Bloomage Holyland Real Estate

51、Development Co., Ltd.北京市中环新苑房地产开发公司106,3032006GChina Central Place (Tower 1,2)华贸中心 1号楼、2号楼Beijing Guohua Real Estate Co., Ltd北京国华置业有限公司120,1292007HYintai Center银泰中心Beijing Yintai Property Co., Ltd北京银泰置业有限公司70,0002007IGemdale Plaza A金地中心 ABeijing Jindihongye Real Easte北京金地鸿业房地产开发有限公司60,0002007JChina

52、Central Place (Tower 3)华贸中心 3号楼Beijing Guohua Real Estate Co., Ltd北京国华置业有限公司72,4892007KProsper Center世纪财富Beijing Prosper Development Co., Ltd北京世源光华房地产开发有限公司88,9662008LTaikang Financial Tower泰康金融大厦Capital Group首创置业65,0962008MWorld Financial Centre环球金融中心Henderson Land Development Co., Ltd恒基兆业地产有限公司177

53、,8472008NChina Oversea Plaza中海广场China Overseas Property中海地产80,0002009OChina World Trade Centre (Phase 3)中国国际贸易中心三期Beijing China World Trade Center Co., Ltd北京国际贸易中心有限公司120,0002010PBeijing IFC北京IFCBeijing Jianji Tianrun Real Estate Development Co., Ltd北京建机天润房地产开发有限公司110,0002010B. Financial Street 金融街F

54、inancial Street accommodates many state-owned companies and agencies in the sectors such as finance, insurance, telecommunications, and power, etc. In addition to the state-owned companies and regulatory commissions, this submarket is also increasingly attracting foreign financial institutions such

55、as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup by offering rental rebate and tax incentive packages.CGFEABDMap Ref.PropertyDeveloperOffice GFA (sm)Year of CompletionABeijing Winland International Finance Center北京英蓝国际金融中心Beijing Winland Group Limited北京英蓝置业有限公司90,0002005BExcel卓著国际中心Financial Street Holding

56、s Co., Ltd.金融街控股40,0002007CChemSunny Plaza (Central Tower)凯晨广场（中楼）Beijing ChemSunny Property Co., Ltd.北京凯晨置业有限公司20,0002007DChemSunny Plaza (West Tower)凯晨广场（西楼）Beijing ChemSunny Property Co., Ltd.北京凯晨置业有限公司44,3002007EFortune Resource International Centre丰融国际中心Beijing Zhaotai Real Estate Co., Ltd.北京兆泰

57、房地产开发有限公司46,0002008FTaikang International Building泰康国际大厦Financial Street Holdings Co., Ltd.金融街控股37,0002008GFinancial Street Center金融街中心Financial Street Holdings Co., Ltd.金融街控股53,0002009C. Zhongguancun 中关村Zhongguancun in the citys northwest is considered the third major business area. Due to its less

58、 volatility because of the quality of supply, this submarket is historically more stable than the CBD and Financial Street. CABDMap Ref.PropertyDeveloperOffice GFA (sm)Year of CompletionARaycom Infotech Tower A融科资讯中心A座Raycom Real Estate Co., Ltd.融科智地房地产开发有限公司49,1862001BIdeal International plaza理想国际大厦ZhongWu Ideal Real Estate Co., Ltd.中物理想房地产开发公司70,5002004CRaycom Infotech Park Tower C融科资讯中心C座Raycom Real Estate Co., Ltd.融科智地房地产开发有限公司95,0002004DSino-Steel Plaza中钢国际大厦China Steel Group中钢集团84,0002006D. Lufthansa 燕莎Lufthansa is a well-established