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1、美国Acme Tool公司1994-2000年销售额记录年份季度时期/销售额/XS1( a =0.3)S2( a =0.3)ab-10-433.3433.3433.3p 0.02300.0300.0300.00.03200.0200.0200.0r 0.04366.7366.7366.70.019941r 1500453.3439.3467.3r 6.022350315.0304.5325.54.53:3250215.0204.5225.5r 4.544400376.7369.7383.73.019951r 5450452.3443.2461.4r 3.926350325.5310.8340.
2、26.33r 7200210.5206.3214.7r 1.848300353.7364.9342.5-4.8199619350421.6436.8406.5:-6.5210200287.9303.9271.8-6.9311150192.4202.1182.6-4.2412400367.6365.7369.50.81997113550460.1443.8476.57.0214350306.5304.7308.30.8315250209.6204.4214.92.3416550422.3382.7461.9P 17.01998117550487.1456.8517.413.0218400334.
3、5313.6355.49.0319350251.8218.6284.914.24:20600475.6410.5540.7P 27.91999121750566.0489.5642.432.82r 22500384.2334.8433.6r 21.2323400296.2241.9350.623.34r 24650527.9445.8610.1P 35.22000125850651.2538.0764.348.52r 26600448.9369.0528.8P 34.2327450342.4272.0412.730.14r 28700579.5485.9673.240.12001129预测23
4、0331432平均误差Y/ a =0.3绝对误差1误差平方-433.366.74444.4300.050.02500.0200.050.0 12500.0366.733.31111.1473.323.31544.4330.020.0400.0230.030.0900.0386.786.7 n7511.1465.3115.313301.8346.5146.521462.3216.566.54422.3337.762.33885.4400.0150.022490.0264.985.17242.0178.471.65126.6370.3179.732304.1483.566.54417.8309.190.9 n8267.4217.2132.817642.5478.9121.1 ”14661.2530.4219.648210.8364.4135.6 118386.3299.1100.910175.0568.681.4 16633.7675.2174.830565.1454.7145.3 121106.6373.976.15796.6645.354.712991.6812.8563.0、& 、八442.8均方差713.394.211392.9T=1a =0.3趋势图900T -销售额/XY/ a =0.31001591317时期2530势图21252915SQ20
二次指数平滑法运用实例
