气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍

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1、气候变化自然风险评估工气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍作介绍内容内容ContentContent工作进展工作进展Progress国家层面工作计划国家层面工作计划National-levelworkplan地方层面工作计划地方层面工作计划Province-levelworkplan未来工作未来工作Futurework工作进展工作进展ProgressProgress国家层面工作计划国家层面工作计划National-levelworkplanNational-levelworkplan农业（中国农业科学院）农业（中国农业科学院）Agriculture(CAAS)草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国

2、农业大学）Grassland-livestock(CAU)水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院）Waterresources(NHRI)农业（中国农业科学院）：农业（中国农业科学院）：农业（中国农业科学院）：农业（中国农业科学院）：Agriculture(CAAS)Agriculture(CAAS)（1）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价Phase:Currentimpactandassessmentonclimatechange目标目标1：气候变化历史影响的检测 Objective1:Detect the historical impact of c

3、limate change.目标目标2：分析已经发生的气候变化与农业气象灾害损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系 Objective2:Analyze the relationship between climate changes which had happened and the loss of agro-meteorological disasters,water resources,cropping systems.目标目标3：评估已经采取的适应气候变化措施 Objective3:Assess adaptation measures which have been taken to ad

4、apt to climate change in the past.目标目标4：农业灾害风险处置措施评价及选择Objective4:Assessment and adoption of agricultural disaster risk disposal measures.目标目标5：评估农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性 Objective5:Evaluate the vulnerability about impact of agriculture on climate change.（2）未来影响的评估）未来影响的评估Phase:Impactandassessmentforthefutu

5、re目标目标1：评估模型的验证 Objective1:Validation of Assessment Model.目标目标2：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植结构调整战略 Objective2:Under the conditions of climate change in the future,the changes in crop planting area and main crops planting boundaries and the strategy of planting structural adjustment in China.目标目标3：

6、未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评估 Objective3:Assessment that climate change in the future impacts on major food crops in China.目标目标4：风险与脆弱性评估 Objective4:Assessment on risk and vulnerability.目标目标5：农业灾害风险管理措施评估及建议 Objective5:Assessment and proposition on disposal measures of agricultural disaster risk.（3）适应措施和政策建议

7、）适应措施和政策建议Phase:Adaptationandpolicyrecommendations目标目标1：我国农业适应气候变化空间区域划分 Objective1:Space division about agricultural adaptation to climate change in China.目标目标2：技术清单编制 Objective2:Preparation of technical-list.目标目标3：农业适应气候变化的政策建议Objective3:Policy recommendations about agricultural adaptation to clim

8、ate change.目标目标4：省级适应框架的完善 Objective4:Complete the adaptation framework of provincial level.草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）Grassland-livestock(CAU)Grassland-livestock(CAU)目标目标1：气候变化对草地畜牧业影响的检测Objective1 Detecting the impact of climate change on grassland and livestock husbandry.

9、目标目标2：全国层面的草地畜牧业气候变化影响评估模型校验Objective2:Model development for assessment of the effects of climate change on pasture livestock production nation wide.目标目标3：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评估 Objective3:Assessment of risk of future climate on pasture livestock production.目标目标4：提出草地畜牧业适应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective4:Provide

10、national strategies of adaptation to climate change in pasture livestock production.水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院）Waterresources(NHRI)Waterresources(NHRI)目标目标1：完善全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型 Objective1:Consummate China-wide assessment model for climate change impact on water reso

11、urces 目标目标2：检测气候变化对典型流域实测径流量变化的影响，综合分析过去适应极端干旱、洪涝灾害的经验 Objective2:Detect the effect of climate change on actual measurement of stream flow in typical watershed;comprehensively analyze the experience of past adapting to extreme drought and floods 目标目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective3：Assess the potentia

12、l impact of climate change on future water resources over China 目标目标4：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective4:Address national adaptation strategy of water industry to climate change.地方层面工作计划地方层面工作计划Province-levelworkplanProvince-levelworkplan宁夏宁夏Ningxia农业农业Agriculture水资源水资源WaterResources适应技术示范适应技术示范Adaptationc

13、asestudy 内蒙内蒙InnerMongolia草地畜牧业草地畜牧业Grassland-livestock水资源水资源Waterresources适应案例研究适应案例研究Adaptationcasestudy省份省份1：内蒙古：内蒙古Province1：InnerMongolia：草地畜牧：草地畜牧业（内蒙古（内蒙古农业大学）大学）：Grassland-livestock(IMAgriculturalUniversity)目目标1：气候：气候变化化对内蒙古草地畜牧内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响的影响评价价 Objective1 Climate change impacts risk assessm

14、ent for whole Inner Mongolia grassland-livestock目目标2：未来气候：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响的影响预估估Objective 2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios ：水：水资源（内蒙古水利局）源（内蒙古水利局）：WaterResources(HydrologicalBureauofInnerMongolia)目

15、目标1：气候：气候变化化对内蒙古水内蒙古水资源的影响源的影响评估估 Objective1 Detection of climatic change impacts on Inner Mongolia water resource目目标2：气候：气候变化化对未来水未来水资源的可能影响源的可能影响评估估Objective2 Future risk assessment目目标3：不同草原：不同草原类型区适型区适应案例研究案例研究Objective3 Case study of different grassland type region about water resources：适：适应案例研究

16、案例研究：TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations目目标1：典型草原草地畜牧：典型草原草地畜牧业区区锡林浩特林浩特 Objective1 Typical steppe grassland and animal husbandry area Xilinhaote目目标2：浑善达克沙地草地善达克沙地草地农业区区多多伦 Objective2 Sandy grassland agricultural area-Doron目目标3：荒漠草原：荒漠草原农牧交牧交错带四子王旗四子王旗 Objective3 Ecotone of desert and grass

17、land-Siziwangqi省份省份2：宁夏：宁夏Province2：Ningxia：农业（宁夏气象研究所）（宁夏气象研究所）：Agriculture(NingxiaMeteorologicalResearchInstitute)目目标1：历史气候史气候变化化对宁夏宁夏农业影响的影响的检测 Objective1 Analyze the impact of present climate change on agriculture in Ningxia目目标2：未来影响的：未来影响的评估。估。评估未来气候估未来气候变化条件下化条件下对宁夏宁夏农业生生产的可能影响和的可能影响和脆弱性，考脆弱性，

18、考虑极端气候事件（极端气候事件（侧重在干旱、高温等）的影响，重在干旱、高温等）的影响，进行行农业综合适合适应气气候候变化措施的示范和效果化措施的示范和效果评估，从估，从农业气象灾害的角度提出气象灾害的角度提出对农业生生产有指有指导意意义的适的适应对策建策建议。Objective2 Assess the future agricultural production risk of climate change.Assess the possible impact and vulnerability of climate change on agricultural production in N

19、ingxia,in terms of extreme climate events,especially drought and hot temperature events.;demonstrate and evaluate the comprehensive technologies to adapt to climate change;provide indicative suggestion in adapting to agro-meteorological hazards.目目标3：气候：气候变化化综合合对策分析策分析Objective3 Comprehensive agricul

20、tural adaptation recommendations to climate change：水：水资源（宁夏水利局）源（宁夏水利局）：WaterResources(HydrologicalBureauofNingxia)目目标1：构建全国：构建全国层面的分布式气候面的分布式气候变化化对水水资源影响源影响评估模型估模型Objective1 Build distributed assessment model in Ningxia目目标2：气候：气候变化化对历史水史水资源的影响源的影响检测Objective2 Risk assessments for the main rivers in

21、 NX目目标3：气候：气候变化化对未来水未来水资源的可能影响源的可能影响评估估Objective 3 Water balance assessment for case study area and policy recommendations：适：适应案例研究案例研究：TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations目目标1：主要研究气候：主要研究气候变暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、实现“一年两季一年两季”、提高冷凉、提高冷凉山区山区农业生生产效益的可行性效益的可行性 Objective1Undertheconditionof

22、climatewarming,Mainlytostudytheimplementationofrevaccinationofwinterwheatandpasture,toachieveone-yeartwoseasons,andpromotethefeasibilityofagriculturalproductionefficiencyincoldmountainareas.目目标2：主要：主要进行气候行气候变暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引进与示范栽培与示范栽培Objective2Undertheconditionofclimatewarming,mainlytoint

23、roduceandcultivatenewvarietiesoflate-maturingmaize 目目标3：主要：主要进行适行适应气候气候变暖条件下中晚熟暖条件下中晚熟马铃薯新品种引薯新品种引进与示范栽培与示范栽培 Objective3Undertheconditionofadaptationtoclimatewarming,mainlytointroduceandcultivatenewvarietiesoflate-maturingpotatoes.目目标4：主要：主要进行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、红豆草）丰豆草）丰产及养畜利用技及养畜利用技术示范研究示范研究Objec

24、tive4Mainlytostudythehighyieldofleguminousforage(alfalfa,Onobrychis)andusageoftechnologyinlivestock Whats new relative to the former projectsPolicy-orientedQuestion-basedFromrunofftohydrologyconcentrationandroutingTypicalregionshighlightedMorepracticalforcasestudyCombinationforthemethodoftop-downand

25、bottom-upLessdependenceonmodelsProvincial-level Risk AssessmentNational-level Risk Assessment Case Study AreasNational-level Policy RecommendationsProvincial-level Policy RecommendationsLocal Adaptation Policy RecommendationsShortcomings and the next-step workStillindraftLackofrequirementsfromstakeholdersDatamonopolyforwaterresourcesTheinteractionbetweenagriculture/grasslandandwaterresourcesnothighlightedDetailedtaskassignmentsDialogueswiththelocalauthorities结束语结束语谢谢大家聆听！谢谢大家聆听！24