国际金融英文课件2【】

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1、Topics coveredMicroeconomics and MacroeconomicsIntroduction to balance of paymentsThe macro meaning of the current account balanceMicroeconomics and MacroeconomicsMicroeconomicsIt studies the effective use of scarce resources from the perspective of individual firms and consumers.微微观观经经济济学学研研究究的的是是经

2、经济济社社会会中中经经济济个个体体的的经经济济行行为为,这这里里的的经经济济个个体体包包括括消消费费者者、生生产产者者(企企业业)和和要要素素所所有有者者等等。这这些些经经济济个个体体或或经经济济单单位位又又通通过过市市场场产产生生相相互互联联系系、相相互互影影响响和和相相互互作作用用.。微微观观经经济济学学阐阐述述经经济济社社会会中中的的经经济济个个体体根根据据什什么么和和怎怎样样做做出出经经济济决决策策,例例如如:消消费费者者怎怎样样作作出出购购买买产产品品和和劳劳务务的的决决策策;企企业业针针对对消消费费者者需需求求与与收收益益和和成成本本的比较关系怎样作出生产的决策;工人怎样决定劳动流

3、向与劳动流量等等。的比较关系怎样作出生产的决策;工人怎样决定劳动流向与劳动流量等等。MacroeconomicsIt studies how economies overall levels of employment,production,and growth are determined.宏宏观观经经济济学学以以整整个个国国民民经经济济作作为为研研究究对对象象,研研究究经经济济总总量量的的决决定定及及其其变变化化规规律律。具具体体来来说说,就就是是研研究究国国民民收收入入决决定定和和变变动动;长长期期的的经经济济增增长长和和短短期期的的经经济济波波动动;以以及及相相关关的的通通货货膨膨胀胀

4、、失失业业和和国国际际收收支支等等问问题题。宏宏观观经经济济学学通通过过经经济济总总量量的的分分析析以期为政府制定宏观经济政策提供理论依据。以期为政府制定宏观经济政策提供理论依据。It emphasizes four aspects of economic life:UnemploymentSavingTrade imbalancesMoney and the price levelMicroeconomics and MacroeconomicsThe national income accounts and the balance of payments accounts are esse

5、ntial tools for studying the macroeconomics of open,interdependent economies.National income accountingRecords all the expenditures that contribute to a countrys income and outputBalance of payments accountingHelps us keep track of both changes in a countrys indebtedness to foreigners and the fortun

6、es of its export-and import-competing industrieswhy do we need to study“International finance”With few remaining barriers to international trade and financial flows,and with important financial events impacting immediately around the globe,all finance is“international”.Domestic financial markets are

7、 closely linked and internationally integrated.国际金融学是研究国际间货币运动和资本流动的方国际金融学是研究国际间货币运动和资本流动的方式、规律及其影响的学科式、规律及其影响的学科.随着全球经济一体化趋随着全球经济一体化趋势的不断发展,我国经济将在更广和更深的领域势的不断发展,我国经济将在更广和更深的领域和范围内融入到世界经济当中,国际金融学必将和范围内融入到世界经济当中,国际金融学必将在我国经济的未来发展中发挥越来越大的作用。在我国经济的未来发展中发挥越来越大的作用。A knowledge of international finance hel

8、ps in two very important ways.First,it helps the financial manager decide how international events will affect a firm and which steps can be taken to exploit positive developments and insulate the firm from harmful ones.Second,it helps the manager to anticipate events and to make profitable decision

9、s before the events occur.Among the events that affect the firm and that the manager must anticipate are changes in exchange rates,as well as in interest rates,inflation rates,and asset values.Balance of paymentsThe balance of payments(BOP)is the method countries use to monitor all international mon

10、etary transactions at a specific period of time.Usually,the BOP is calculated every quarter and every calendar year.All trades conducted by both the private and public sectors are accounted for in the BOP in order to determine how much money is going in and out of a country.指指一一个个国国家家或或地地区区与与世世界界上上其

11、其他他国国家家或或地地区区之之间间发发生的跨国资金转移而引起的国际间资金收支行为生的跨国资金转移而引起的国际间资金收支行为A countrys balance of payments is a systematic account of all the exchanges of value between residents of that country and the rest of the world.Balance of Payments Accounting国际收支平衡表国际收支平衡表 A complete tabulation of the total market value o

12、f goods,services,and financial assets that domestic residents,firms,and governments exchange with residents of other nations during a given period.国际收支平衡表示在给定时期内,国内居民、企业和国际收支平衡表示在给定时期内,国内居民、企业和政府与外国居民(企业、政府部门)进行货物、服务政府与外国居民(企业、政府部门)进行货物、服务和金融资产交易的市场总值的完整汇总表。和金融资产交易的市场总值的完整汇总表。Definition国际收支平衡表国际收支平衡

13、表按照一定的编制原则和格式,排列组合特按照一定的编制原则和格式,排列组合特定时期内一国经济主体与他国经济主体之定时期内一国经济主体与他国经济主体之间的各项经济交易间的各项经济交易是全面系统地记录和总结一国国际收支状是全面系统地记录和总结一国国际收支状况的统计报表况的统计报表是反映一国对外经济发展、偿债能力等的是反映一国对外经济发展、偿债能力等的重要文件,也是各国制定开放经济宏观经重要文件,也是各国制定开放经济宏观经济政策的重要依据济政策的重要依据Balance of paymentsTwo flows occur in any exchange:credit(+)and debit(-).If

14、 a country has received money,this is known as a credit(+),and,if a country has paid or given money,the transaction is counted as a debit(-).Theoretically,the BOP should be zero,meaning that assets(credits)and liabilities(debits)should balance.But in practice this is rarely the case and,thus,the BOP

15、 can tell the observer if a country has a deficit or a surplus and from which part of the economy the discrepancies are stemming.The BOP is divided into two main categories:the current account and capital(financial)account.Within these two categories are sub-divisions,each of which accounts for a di

16、fferent type of international monetary transaction.一、经常项目(一、经常项目(Current AccountCurrent Account)1 1商品商品(Goods)(Goods)2 2服务服务(Service)(Service)3 3收入和支付收入和支付 (Income Receipts and Payments)(Income Receipts and Payments)4 4单方面转移单方面转移(Unilateral Transfers)(Unilateral Transfers)二、资本和金融项目二、资本和金融项目(Capital

17、and Financial Account)(Capital and Financial Account)1.1.资本项目资本项目(Capital Account)(Capital Account)2 2金融项目金融项目(Financial Account)(Financial Account)直接投资(直接投资(Direct Investment)Direct Investment)证券投资证券投资(Portfolio Investment)(Portfolio Investment)其它投资其它投资(Other Investment)(Other Investment)储备资产储备资产(R

18、eserve Assets)(Reserve Assets)三三.错误与遗漏错误与遗漏(Errors and Omissions Account)(Errors and Omissions Account)Balance of Payments Accounting 国际收支平衡表国际收支平衡表正确理解正确理解BOP和和BOPs强调居民与非居民的交易而不是资金收付强调居民与非居民的交易而不是资金收付国际收支国际收支 外汇收支外汇收支考察流量而不是存量,记录发生额而不是考察流量而不是存量,记录发生额而不是持有额持有额国际收支平衡表国际收支平衡表 国家资产负债表国家资产负债表正确理解正确理解BOP

19、和和BOPs(续)(续)理论上全球国际收支差额可以彼此抵消,理论上全球国际收支差额可以彼此抵消,但事实并不如此但事实并不如此存在巨大的全球贸易逆差存在巨大的全球贸易逆差国际收支经常不平衡,但国际收支平衡表国际收支经常不平衡,但国际收支平衡表永远账面平衡永远账面平衡设置设置“储备资产变动储备资产变动”和和“错误与遗漏错误与遗漏”项目项目Balance of payments-current accountThe Current Account is used to mark the inflow and outflow of goods and services into a country.E

20、arnings on investments,both public and private,are also put into the current account.Within the current account are credits and debits on the trade of merchandise,which includes goods such as raw materials and manufactured goods that are bought,sold or given away(possibly in the form of aid).货物货物/商品

21、:有形贸易,记录商品的进出口。包含商品:有形贸易,记录商品的进出口。包含五种:一般商品、用于加工的货物、货物修理、五种:一般商品、用于加工的货物、货物修理、各种运输工具在港口购买的货物、非货币黄金。各种运输工具在港口购买的货物、非货币黄金。Services refer to receipts from tourism,transportation(like the levy that must be paid in Egypt when a ship passes through the Suez Canal),engineering,business service fees(from la

22、wyers or management consulting,for example),and royalties from patents and copyrights.服务:无形贸易,记录服务的输出入。包括运输、服务:无形贸易,记录服务的输出入。包括运输、旅游、通讯服务、建筑服务、保险服务、金融服务、旅游、通讯服务、建筑服务、保险服务、金融服务、计算机和信息服务、专有权利使用费和特许费、咨计算机和信息服务、专有权利使用费和特许费、咨询、广告宣传、电影、音像,其他商业服务、别处询、广告宣传、电影、音像,其他商业服务、别处未提及的政府服务。未提及的政府服务。Income Receipts an

23、d Payments 收入和支付(1)Income ReceiptsThe income category tabulates interest and dividend payments to foreign residents and governments who hold domestic financial assets.It also includes payments received by domestic residents and governments who hold financial assets abroad.收入:指居民与非居民之间有关金融资产与负债的收收入:指

24、居民与非居民之间有关金融资产与负债的收入与支出,包括有关直接投资、证券投资和其它投资入与支出,包括有关直接投资、证券投资和其它投资所得收入与支出所得收入与支出。职工报酬:包括个人在非居民经济体为该经济体职工报酬:包括个人在非居民经济体为该经济体居民工作而得到的现金或实物形式的工资、薪居民工作而得到的现金或实物形式的工资、薪水和福利水和福利。(2)PaymentsRewards,salary,etc,paid between residents and non-residents.Unilateral Transfers:measures international transfers,or g

25、ifts,among individuals or governments.单方面转移:记录了个人和政府间的国际转移或赠送。Includes items such as:Government grants abroad(政府国际赠送)Private remittances(私人汇款)Private grants abroad例如:中国对某个刚刚遭遇自然灾害的国家提供价值500,000美元的大米作为人道主义援助。经常项目经常项目(current account)货物货物记录有形货物的进出口数量。包含五种:一般商品、记录有形货物的进出口数量。包含五种:一般商品、用于加工的货物、货物修理、各种运输工

26、具在港口购用于加工的货物、货物修理、各种运输工具在港口购买的货物、非货币黄金。买的货物、非货币黄金。服务服务记录服务、观光旅游和军需交易的进出口数量记录服务、观光旅游和军需交易的进出口数量收入收入记录涉外的职工报酬和投资收入记录涉外的职工报酬和投资收入单方面转移单方面转移记录个人或政府间的国际转移或赠与记录个人或政府间的国际转移或赠与CASE 1 以某同学出国为例以某同学出国为例某同学出国旅游某同学出国旅游乘坐国外航班乘坐国外航班(运输服务)(运输服务)在国外购买人身意在国外购买人身意外险(保险服务)外险(保险服务)在国外给家人打在国外给家人打 (通讯服务)(通讯服务)在国外银行使用旅在国外银

27、行使用旅游支票(金融服务)游支票(金融服务)在国外上网查找旅在国外上网查找旅游景点(计算机和游景点(计算机和信息服务)信息服务)到某咨询公司咨询到某咨询公司咨询出国留学事宜(咨出国留学事宜(咨询服务)询服务)CASE 2 讨论以下涉及什么服务讨论以下涉及什么服务赤壁在日本上映赤壁在日本上映在日本全国性的报纸朝日、读卖、每日新闻等彩页进行连载。在电在日本全国性的报纸朝日、读卖、每日新闻等彩页进行连载。在电视上加大宣传力度。该剧组在东京电影节的风光亮相更扩大了影片视上加大宣传力度。该剧组在东京电影节的风光亮相更扩大了影片在大众中的影响。在大众中的影响。2009年年2月月5日,在东京六本木新城日,在

28、东京六本木新城TOHO影城召影城召开的电影试映会上,参演开的电影试映会上,参演赤壁赤壁2的演员林志玲、金城武,以及导的演员林志玲、金城武,以及导演吴宇森站上了舞台。演吴宇森站上了舞台。赤壁赤壁如此压倒性宣传的费用有传言约在如此压倒性宣传的费用有传言约在12亿日元左右。亿日元左右。直至直至11月月30日为止,入场欣赏的观众已累积达日为止,入场欣赏的观众已累积达305万万4千多人次,票千多人次,票房高达房高达37亿亿4千万日元(逾千万日元(逾3亿港元)。日本媒体估计,该片在日本亿港元)。日本媒体估计,该片在日本的最终票房将超过的最终票房将超过英雄英雄,突破,突破50亿日元。亿日元。赤壁赤壁The

29、balance of payments-capital accountThe capital account is where all international capital transfers are recorded.It is a record of all international transactions for assets including bonds,treasury bills,bank deposits,stocks,currency,real estate,etc.Also included are government-owned assets such as

30、foreign reserves,gold,special drawing rights(SDRs)held with the International Monetary Fund,private assets held abroad,and direct foreign investment.Assets owned by foreigners,private and official,are also recorded in the financial account.资本和金融项目资本和金融项目(capital&financil account)资本项目资本项目资本转移资本转移非生产、

31、非金融资产的收买非生产、非金融资产的收买/放弃放弃金融项目金融项目直接投资直接投资证券投资证券投资其他投资其他投资储备资产变动储备资产变动储备资产变动储备资产变动记录中央银行或财政部门等官方政府机构记录中央银行或财政部门等官方政府机构的国际交易活动的国际交易活动官方储备资产包括货币性黄金、特别提款官方储备资产包括货币性黄金、特别提款权、在国际货币基金的储备头寸、外汇储权、在国际货币基金的储备头寸、外汇储备等备等往往是出于对冲私人部门国际交易影响的往往是出于对冲私人部门国际交易影响的目的而发生,也被称作平衡项目,制表时目的而发生,也被称作平衡项目,制表时单独列示单独列示错误与遗漏项目错误与遗漏项

32、目(errors&omissions)国际收支平衡表专门设置的平衡项目国际收支平衡表专门设置的平衡项目设置原因设置原因隐瞒交易导致原始资料失真隐瞒交易导致原始资料失真技术困难造成交易记录不完全技术困难造成交易记录不完全各子项目分别统计,口径难以一致各子项目分别统计,口径难以一致功能功能使国际收支平衡表的借贷双方实现平衡使国际收支平衡表的借贷双方实现平衡根据前三个项目的汇总结果,以相同数字记入根据前三个项目的汇总结果,以相同数字记入会计账户的相反方向会计账户的相反方向Summary(I)Current Account Exports Merchandise(tangible goods)Serv

33、ices(invisible trade,e.g.legal,consulting,royalties,patents etc.)Factor Income(interest,dividend or any other foreign investment income)Imports Merchandise Services Factor income Unilateral Transfers(one way unrequited payments,e.g.:foreign aid,grants,gifts etc.)(II)Capital Account Foreign Direct In

34、vestment(FDI)Portfolio Investment Equity Securities Debt Securities Other Investment(transactions in currency,bank deposits,trade credits etc.)Statistical discrepancies(III)Foreign Reserves Official Reserve account,includes gold,foreign exchanges,SDRs,reserves in IMF The formula:current account=capi

35、tal account+foreign reservesSummary Money coming in(Credit+),or leaving(Debit):+Exports Imports Increase of owned assets abroad+Increase of foreign-owned assets in the country An account may show a surplus or a deficit.For example,a trade surplus implies that a countrys exports are higher than its i

36、mports and hence there is a net flow of money into the country.A trade deficit,on the other hand,implies that the countrys imports exceed its exports and hence there is a net flow of money out of the country.For a country to have a zero balance of payments,a current account deficit must be balanced

37、by a capital account surplus.The US have been running a negative current account for a long while,which is financed through a positive financial account.The only way to buy more than you sell is to borrow money.A country will have a negative balance of payments(i.e.,there is to be a net flow of mone

38、y out of the country)if the net of the current account and the capital account is a deficit.Similarly,there will be a positive balance of payments(i.e.,a net flow of money into a country)if the net of the current and the capital account results in a surplus.U.S.Balance of payments account,2001credit

39、 debit1.Exports of goods and services and income received$1,2822.Merchandise exports 7193.Service exports(travel,business service,etc.)2794.Income receipts from foreigners 2845.Imports of goods and services and income paid-1,6266.Merchandise imports-1,1467.Services imports(travel,business service,et

40、c.)-2108.Income payments to foreigners -2699.Unilateral transfers,net -4910.U.S.government transfers to foreigners -1711.Private remittances and other transfers -3212.Changes in U.s.holdings of foreign assets -36613.U.S.direct investment abroad -12814.Other U.S.investments abroad -23815.Changes in f

41、oreign holdings of U.S.assets (excluding official international reserves),net 748Foreign direct investments in the U.S.1312.U.S.holdings of official reserve assets 6173.18.Changes in holdings of official international reserves,net 04.Foreign official holdings of U.S.assets 5U.S.holdings of official

42、reserve assets -56.21.Statistical discrepancy 117.22.Net balance of credits minus debits 08.Six Key BalancesMerchandise trade balance(lines 2 and 6)-42710.Goods and services balance(lines 2,3,6,and 7)-35811.Goods,services and income balance(lines 1 and 5)-344Current account balance(lines 1,5 and 9)-

43、39313.Net private capital flows and statistical discrepancy 39314.Overall balance(lines 26 and 27,or the negative of line 18)0Questions and ProblemsWhich of the following transactions would contribute to a U.S.current account surplus?1.Boeing barters a$100 million plane to Mexico in exchange for$100

44、 million worth of hotel services on the Mexican coast.2.The United States borrows$100 million long term from Saudi Arabia to buy$100 million of Saudi oil this year.3.The US sells a$100 million jet to Turkey for$100 million in bank deposits.4.The US government makes a gift of$100 million to the gover

45、nment of Greece,in the form of New York bank deposits,to pay for injuries caused by Turkish jet attacks.5.The British central bank buys$100 million in US-dollar bank deposits from a New York bank,paying by providing pound bank deposits to the New York bank.Reference answersOnly transaction 3 contrib

46、utes to a surplus in the current account because it is an export of merchandise that is paid for through an item in the capital account.Transaction 1 leaves the current account unchanged because it is both an export and an import.Transaction 2 contributes to a deficit in the current account because

47、it is an import.Transaction 4 also contributes to a current account deficit because of the outflow as a unilateral transfer.Transaction 5 affects no items in the current account.Questions and ProblemsWhat are the effects of each of the following on the US international investment position?a.Foreign

48、central banks increase their official holdings of US government securities.b.US residents increase their holdings of stocks issued by Japanese companies.c.A British pension fund sells some of its holdings of the stocks of US companies in order to buy US corporate bonds.Reference answersa.The US inte

49、rnational investment position declines an increase in foreign investments in the US(an increase in what the US owes to foreigners)b.The US international investment position rises an increase in private US investment abroad(an increase in US claims on foreigners)c.The US international investment posi

50、tion is unchanged.The composition of foreign investments in the US changes,but the total amount does not change.The macro meaning of the current account balanceA countrys current account balance equals the countrys net foreign investment(CA=If).When all the flows for current uses as goods,services,i

51、ncome and gifts have been netted out,what is left is the increase in all of the foreign financial assets minus all of the countrys foreign liabilities.The only things being exchanged between nations are goods,services,income,gifts,and financial assets.If all credits must equal all debits,then the ba

52、lance on goods,services,income and giftsthat is the current account surplus must equal net foreign investment(If),the net accumulation of foreign assets minus foreign liabilities.The macro meaning of the current account balanceA countrys current account balance equals national saving that is not inv

53、ested at home(CA=SId).The CA balance is linked to its national saving and domestic investment.A country can do two things with its national saving(S):1.Invest at home in domestic capital formation,which is domestic investment(Id).2.Invest abroad in net foreign investment(If).That is national saving

54、S=Id+If.Looked at another way,the countrys net foreign investment equals the difference between national saving and domestic investment(If=S-Id)The macro meaning of the current account balanceA countrys current account balance(which is approximately equal to a countrys net export)is the difference b

55、etween its domestic production of goods and services and its total expenditure on goods and services(CA=XM=Y E).The current account balance is linked to domestic production,income,and expenditure.Recall from basic macroeconomics that domestic production of goods and services(Y)equals the demand for

56、the countrys production.The macro meaning of the current account balanceY=C+Id+G+X-M Where:a.C=domestic household consumption of goods and servicesb.Id=domestic real investment in buildings,equipment,and inventoriesc.G=Government spending on goods and servicesd.X=foreign purchases of the countrys ex

57、ports of goods and servicese.M=the countrys purchases of imports from other countries.The macro meaning of the current account balanceC,Id and G all include purchases of both domestically produced and imported goods and services.Imports must be subtracted separately because imports are not demand fo

58、r this countrys products.The countrys total expenditure on goods and services(E,sometimes called absorption)simply equals consumption,domestic investment,and government spending:E=C+Id+G.Therefore,domestic product equals the countrys total expenditures plus net exports,or Y=E+(X-M).Again,look at ano

59、ther way,the countrys current account balance which is approximately equal to the countrys net exports is also equal to difference between domestic product and national spending on goods and services:Y E=X-M.The macro meaning of the current account balanceTo summarize:current account balance equals:

60、1.Net foreign investment2.The difference between national saving and domestic investment3.The difference between domestic product and national expenditureIf a country has a current account surplus:1.The country has positive net foreign investment(that is,the country is acting as a net lender to or i

61、nvestor in the rest of the world)2.The country is saving more than it is investing domestically3.The country is producing more(and has more income from this production)than it is spending on goods and services.The macro meaning of the current account balanceIf a country has a current account deficit

62、,the country is a net foreign borrower,its domestic saving less than domestic investment and spending more than production(or income).These identities help us to see what must be changed if the current account balance is to be changed.For instance,consider a country that seeks to reduce its CA defic

63、it.An improvement in the countrys current account balance must be accompanied by an increase in the value of domestic product(Y)relative to the value of national expenditure(E).If domestic production cannot expand much,then national spending must fall in order to decrease imports or to permit more l

64、ocal production to be exported.The macro meaning of the current account balanceFor instance,the US has evolved from a net exporter and lender after World War II to a net importer and borrower.Up through the 1960s,the US had a positive current account balance and a positive trade balance.The US was a

65、 net exporter and lender largely because Europe and Japan,still recovering from World War II,badly needed American goods and loans(and foreign aid under the Marshall Plan).During the 1970s and up through 1981,a new pattern began to emerge.The US became a net importer of goods and services,but still

66、kept its current account approximately in balance,thanks largely to interest and profit earnings on previous foreign investments.After 1982,the US shifted into dramatic trade and current account deficits,becoming the worlds largest borrower.The underlying reason:Led by new federal government deficits,the US cut its rate of national saving much faster than its domestic investment and therefore borrowed heavily from Japan and other countries.The deficits declined in the late 1980s,but then began t

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