国际金融chap214thedition

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1、Understanding Foreign Exchange2PaymentsAmongNations3TheForeignExchangeMarket4ForwardExchangeandInternationalFinancialInvestment5WhatDeterminesExchangeRates?6GovernmentPoliciesTowardtheForeignExchangeMarket7InternationalLendingandFinancialCrisesPart One1CHAPTER TWOPayments among Nations国际收支国际收支2Thisc

2、hapterexaminestheframeworkusedtosummarizeacountrysinternationaltransactions.3Frameworkofchapter2Accountingprinciples记账原则Acountrysbalanceofpayments一国的国际收支Themacromeaningofthecurrentaccountbalance经常账户余额的宏观意义Themacromeaningoftheoverallbalance总余额的宏观意义4BalanceofPayments国际收支Balanceofpaymentsarethesetofacc

3、ountsrecordingallflowsofvaluebetweenanationsresidentsandtheresidentsoftherestoftheworldduringaperiodoftime.p13国际收支：国际收支是指一国的居民在一定时期内（一年、一季度、一月）与他国居民之间的经济交易的系统记录。BalanceofPaymentsStatement:国际收支平衡表Figure2.15Accounting principlesA credit item(+):a country must be paid;payment by a foreigner into the co

4、untry.A debit item(-):a country must pay;payment by the country to a foreigner.Exports of goodsPurchases by foreigners in this countryForeigners investing in the countrys bondsImports of goodsPurchases from foreign countriesPurchases by investors in this country from foreigners6Acountrysbalanceofpay

5、mentsThree major parts of a countrys balance of payments:Current account（经常账户）（经常账户）Financial account（金融账户）（金融账户）Official international reserves（官方国际储备）（官方国际储备）7Currentaccount经常账户Thecurrent accountincludesalldebitandcredititemsthatareexportsandimportsofgoodsandservices,incomereceiptsandincomepayment

6、s,andgifts.8Current accountgoods and serviceincomeunilateral transfer单方面转移单方面转移Payments and receipts on foreign financial assets,like interest,dividends(股息)and other claims(债权).Gifts the country makes and receivesFigure 2.1Goods and service imports and exports9Thenetvalueofflowsofgoods,services,inco

7、me,andunilateraltransfersisthecurrentaccountbalance.Currentaccountbalance(CA)经常账户差额商品贸易差额、劳务差额加上收入净额和无偿转移收支净额之和。Positive balance:Surplus(盈余)Negative balance:Deficit(赤字)10Goodsandservicebalance,oftencalledtrade balance(贸易差额贸易差额),isthenetvalueofexportsandimportsofgoodsandservices.Itisaimportantbalance

8、withinthecurrentaccount.11贸易逆差和顺差贸易逆差和顺差 贸易顺差贸易顺差贸易的双方互相买卖各种货物，互相进口与出口，其中的差额，对甲方来说，就叫作贸易顺差，反之，对乙方来说，就叫贸易逆差。一般就贸易双方的利益来讲，其中得到贸易顺差的一方是占便宜的一方，而得到贸易逆差的一方则是吃亏的一方。贸易顺差越多并不一定好，过高的贸易顺差，意味着本国经济的增长比过去几年任何时候都更依赖于外部需求，对外依存度过高。12Contd 如中国，巨额的贸易顺差带来了外汇储备的膨胀，给人民币带来了更大的升值压力，也给国际上贸易保护主义势力以口实，认为巨额顺差反映的是人民币被低估。这增加了人民币

9、升值压力和金融风险，为人民币汇率机制改革增加了成本和难度。贸易逆差贸易逆差 反映该国当年在对外贸易中处于不利地位。一国政府当局应当设法避免长期出现贸易逆差，因为大量逆差将致使国内资源外流，对外债务增加。这种状况同样会影响国民经济正常运行。Note:we are not saying which one is good or bad13ReadingChinastradesurpluswithUSmisread视频：中国贸易顺差总量收窄对美升高 14Financial account金融账户Financialaccountreportstheprincipal amountsonlyofasse

10、tstraded(privatecapitalflows).指用于记录各机构单位（部门或经济总体）在一定时期所发生的各种金融交易的账户。Please note:Anyflowsofearnings onforeignassetsarereportedinthecurrentaccount.15ContdVarietiesofprivatecapitalflowsDirect investment 直接投资直接投资lending to,or purchases of ownership inInternational portfolio investment国际证券投资国际证券投资purchas

11、es of bonds and stocksFinancial account P15Debit item?Credit item?Capital outflowCapital inflow16Financial account balance(FA)金融账户差额金融账户差额Thenetvalueofflowsoffinancialassetsandsimilarclaims(excludingofficialinternationalreserveassetflows)istheprivatefinancial account balance（FA）.Figure 2.1 p1517Offi

12、cial international reserves(OR)官方国际储备官方国际储备Officialinternationalreservesassetsaremoney-likeassetsthatareheldbygovernmentsandthatarerecognizedbygovernmentsasfullyacceptableforpaymentsbetweenthem.Gold Foreign exchange assets,(e.g.U.S.Treasury bonds)Special drawing rights(SDRs)in IMFFigure 2.1 p1518Add

13、 the three major parts of a countrys balance of payments togetherAccording to double-entry bookkeeping,positive items+negative items=019三项之和不为零原因是统计误差和遗漏，经常是资本地下出逃。估计中国每年资金外逃6000亿RMB（如贪官外逃所携带的资金），占GDP的6%，几乎吃掉中国经济的增长率。20Statistical Discrepancy统计误差统计误差Itisaitemcreatedtomaketheaccountsbalanceandtowarnu

14、sthatsomethingwasmissed.Figure2.1note ap1521TheCAhasseveralmeanings.1.CA=If经常帐户、金融帐户和官方国际储备之间的关系。理论上三者之和为零。则（CA=FAOR）THEMACROMEANINGOFTHECURRENTACCOUNTBALANCE22Financial account+Official international reserveNetflowsofinternationalfinancialinvestment(privateandofficialfinancialinvestment)Netforeigni

15、nvestment(If)净国外投资CA=IfCurrentaccountbalanceContd23Contd2.CA=SIdAcountrycandotwothingswithitsnationalsavings:S=Id+Ifsothat,CA=SId24Contd3.CA=YEAcountryscurrentaccountbalancealsoislinkedtodomesticproduction,income,andexpenditure.Y=C+Id+G+(XM),商品和劳务的生产=消费+投资政府支出贸易差额E=C+Id+G,对商品和劳务总支出=消费+投资政府支出National

16、 incomeExpenditure25收入的四部门模型。四部门包括家庭、企业、政府和国外部门。居民户居民户企业企业商品或劳务商品或劳务货币（消费货币（消费C）提供生产要素提供生产要素货币（工资或利息）货币（工资或利息）金融机构金融机构储蓄储蓄S投资投资I 政府政府税税收收T支支出出G国外部门国外部门国国外外企企业业购购买买（出出口口）向国外企业购买（进口）向国外企业购买（进口）26ContdTherefore,Y=E+(XM),andCA=(XM)approximately,-thedifferencebetweenthevalueofthecountrysexportsandimports

17、ofgoodsandservices.sothat CA=YE27Meaningofcurrentaccountbalancep20Note:we are not saying which one is good or bad28Theseidentitieshelpusseewhatmustbechangedifthecurrentaccountbalanceistobechanged.Theidentitiesalsohelpustounderstandwhatforcesmightbecausingchangesinthecurrentaccountbalance.Figure2.229

18、If CA is in deficit,then what could we do?e.g.IncreaseY,ordecreaseE.30Theoverallbalanceshouldindicatewhetheracountrysbalanceofpaymentshasachievedanoverallpatternthatissustainableovertime.Officialsettlementsbalance(官方结算差额)Currentaccountbalance+FinancialaccountbalanceB=CA+FA p15figure2.1notebTHEMACROM

19、EANINGOFTHEOVERALLBALANCEp2331因为所有项目最终差额必须为0，所以官方结算差额(总差额）的不平衡必须用官方储备资产（OR）来弥补，因此，B+OR=0IfB0，surplus,accumulationofOR.B0，deficit,decreaseofOR.32国际收支逆差的影响Q外国投资者与本国投资者持有本币的信心将会极大地削弱，随着外国投资者与本国投资者大量抛出本币或本币表示的资产，本币汇率会面临着较大的下跌压力。Q如果该国货币当局不愿接受本币贬值的后果，就需要对外汇市场进行干预，即动用外汇储备抛出外币收回本币。Q后果：耗竭储备，引发危机33国际收支顺差的影响国际

20、收支顺差促进经济增长，增加了外汇储备，增强了综合国力，提高对外融资能力和引进外资能力本币持续坚挺，出口受到影响。不利于发展国际经济关系。一国的国际收支出现大量的顺差，意味着有关国家国际收支发生逆差，常常表现为出口和进口的失衡，因而容易引起贸易摩擦，影响国际经济关系。20世纪80年代美国和日本的贸易摩擦、21世纪初我国和美国、欧盟国家的贸易争端，都是典型的例子。34Question“Acountryisbetteroffrunningacurrentaccountsurplusratherthanacurrentaccountdeficit.”Doyouagreeordisagree?Homew

21、ork:P27Q835Disagree.Onemeaningofacurrentaccountsurplusisthatthecountryisexportingmoregoodsandservicesthanitisimporting.Onemighteasilyjudgethatthisisnotgoodthecountryisproducinggoodsandservicesthatareexported,butthecountryisnotatthesametimegettingtheimportsofgoodsandservicesthatwouldallowitdomorecons

22、umptionanddomesticinvestment.Inthiswayacurrentaccountdeficitmightbeconsideredgoodtheextraimportsallowthecountrytoconsumeandinvestdomesticallymorethanthevalueofitscurrentproduction.Anothermeaningofacurrentaccountsurplusisthatthecountryisengaginginforeignfinancialinvestmentitisbuildingupitsclaimsonfor

23、eigners,andthisaddstonationalwealth.Thissoundsgood,butasnotedaboveitcomesatthecostofforegoing（放弃）currentdomesticpurchasesofgoodsandservices.36Acurrentaccountdeficitisthecountryrunningdown（减少）itsclaimsonforeignersorincreasingitsindebtedness（债务）toforeigners.Thissoundsbad,butitcomeswiththebenefitofhigh

24、erlevelsofcurrentdomesticexpenditure.Differentcountriesatdifferenttimesmayweighthebalanceofthesecostsandbenefitsdifferently,sothatwecannotsimplysaythatacurrentaccountsurplusisbetterthanacurrentaccountdeficit.37Chinas economy：Not made in ChinaFeb 11th 2009,From EChinas exports dive but its trade surp

25、lus growsIMPORTStoChinaplungedinJanuary,signallingthatdemandisshrinkingalarmingly:theyfellby43.1%comparedwithayearearlier,worsethanforecastanddoublethedeclineinDecember.ButChinastradesurplus,at$39.1billion,isoneofthebiggestonrecordbecauseahugetumbleinexportsof17.5wasdwarfedbyfallingimports.ArecoveryinChineseexportsisunlikelyastheworldslidesdeeperintoaneconomicslumpbutimportsmaywellpickupChinahasresumedimportingironoreafterrunningdownstocksinrecentmonths.Chinaseconomycouldalsogetaboostfromabiggovernmentstimuluspackage.38AFPReaders comments39