消防系统运行可靠性的估计外文及翻译

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1、本科毕业设计外文文献及译文文献、资料题目：Estimates of the Operational Reliability of Fire Protection Systems文献、资料来源： 文献、资料发表（出版）日期： 院 （部）： 市政与环境工程学院专 业： 给水排水工程班 级： 姓 名： 学 号： 指导教师： 翻译日期： 外文文献：Estimates of the Operational Reliability of Fire Protection SystemsFor the past three years，the National Institute of Standards a

2、nd Technology (NIST) has been working to develop a new encryption standard to keep government information secureThe organization is in the final stages of an open process of selecting one or more algorithms，or data-scrambling formulas，for the new Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) and plans to make

3、adecision by late summer or early fallThe standard is slated to go into effect next year Richard W. Bukowski, P.E. Senior Engineer MST Building and Fire Research Laboratory Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8642 USA Edward K. Budnick, P.E., and Christopher F. Scheme1 Vice President Chemical Engineer Hughes Ass

4、ociates, Inc Hughes Associates, Inc. Baltimore, MD 21227-1652USA Baltimore, MD 2 1227-1652USA INTRODUCTION Background Fire protection strategies are designed and installed to perform specific functions. For example, a fire sprinkler system is expected to control or extinguish fires: To accomplish th

5、is, the system sprinklers must open, and the required amount of water to achieve control or extinguishment must be delivered to the fire location. A fire detection system is intended to provide sufficient early warning of a fireto permit occupant notification and escape, fire servicenotification, an

6、d in some cases activation of other fire protection features (e.g., special extinguishing systems, smoke management systems). Both system activation (detection) and notification (alarm) must occur to achieve early warning. Construction compartmentation is generally designed to limit the extent of fi

7、re spread as well as to maintain the buildings structural integrity as well as tenability along escape routes for some specified period of time. In order to accomplish this, the construction features must be fire “rated” (based on standard tests) and the integrity of the features maintained. The rel

8、iability of individual fire protection strategies such as detection, automatic suppression, and construction compartmentation is important input to detailed engineering analyses associated with performance based design. In the context of safety systems, there are several elements of reliability, inc

9、luding both operational andperfornzance reliability. Operational reliability provides a measure of the probability that a fire protection system will operate as intended when needed. Performance reliability is a measure of the adequacy of the feature to successfully perform its intended hnction unde

10、r specific fire exposure conditions. The former is a measure of component or system operability while the latter is a measure of the adequacy of the system design. The scope of this study was limited to evaluation of operational reliability due primarily to the form of the reported data in the liter

11、ature. In addition to this distinction between operational and performance reliability, the scope focused on unconditional estimates of reliability and failure estimates in terms offail-dangerous outcomes. A discussion of these terms is provided later in the paper. Scop This paper provides a review

12、of reported operational reliability and performance estimates for (1) fire detection, (2) automatic suppression, and to a limited extent (3) construction compartmentation. In general, the reported estimates for fire detection are largely for smoke detectiodfire alarm systems; automatic sprinklers co

13、mprise most of the data for automatic suppression, and compartmentation includes compartment fire resistance and enclosure integrity. It should be noted that in some cases the literature did not delineate beyond the general categories of “fire detection” or “automatic suppression,” requiring assumpt

14、ions regarding the specific type of fire protection system. Several studies reported estimates of reliability for both fire detection and automatic sprinkler system strategies. However, very little information was found detailing reliability estimates for passive fire protection strategies such as c

15、ompartmentation. A limited statistical based analysis was performed to provide generalized information on the ranges of such estimates and related uncertainties. This latter effort was limited to evaluation of reported data on detection and suppression. Insufficient data were identified on compartme

16、ntation reliability to be included. This paper addresses elements of reliability as they relate to fire safety systems. The literature search that was performed for this analysis is reviewed and important findings and data summarized. The data found in the literature that were applicable to sprinkle

17、r and smoke detection systems reliability were analyzed, with descriptive estimates of the mean values and 95 percent confidence intervals for the operational reliability of these in situ systems reported. ELEMENTS OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS There is considerabIe variation in reliability data and assoc

18、iated anaIysesreported in the literature. Basically, reliability is an estimate of the probability that a system or component will operate as designed over some time period. During the useful or expected life of a component, this time period is “reset” each time a component is tested and found to be

19、 in working order. Therefore, the more often systems and components are tested and maintained, the more reliable they are. This form of reliability is referred to as unconditional. Unconditional reliability is an estimate of the probability that a system will operate “on demand.” A conditional relia

20、bility is an estimate that two events of concern, i.e., a fire and successful operation of a fire safety system occur at the same time. Reliability estimates that do not consider a fire event probability are unconditional estimates. Two other important concepts applied to operational reliability are

21、fuiled-safe andfailed- dangerous. when a fire safety system fails safe, it operates when no fire event has occurred. A common example is the false alarming of a smoke detector. A fire safety system fails dangerous when it does not function during a fire event. In this study, thefailed-dangerous even

22、t defines the Operational probability of failure (1-reliability estimate). A sprinkler system not operating during a fire event or an operating system that does not control or extinguish a fire are examples of this type of failure. The overall reliability of a system depends on the reliability of in

23、dividual components and their corresponding failure rates, the interdependencies of the individual components that compose the system, and the maintenance and testing of components and systems once installed to veri operability. All of these factors are of concern in estimating operationaz reliabili

24、ty. Fire safety system performance is also of concern when dealing with the overall concept of reliability. System performance is defined as the ability of a particular system to accomplish the task for which it was designed and installed. For example, the performance of a fire rated separation is b

25、ased on the construction components ability to remain intact and provide fire separation during a fire. The degree to which these components prevent fire spread across their intended boundaries defines system performance. Performance reliability estimates require data on how well systems accomplish

26、their design task under actual fire events or full scale tests. Information on performance reliability could not be discerned directly from many of the data sources reviewed as part of this effort due to the form of the presented data, and therefore, it is not addressed as a separate effect. The cau

27、se of failure for any type of system is typically classified into several general categories: installation errors, design mistakes, manufacturing/equipment defects, lack of maintenance, exceeding design limits, and environmental factors. There are several approaches that can be utilized to minimize

28、the probability of failure. Such methods include (1) design redundancy, (2) active monitoring for faults, (3) providing the simplest system (i.e., the least number of components) to address the hazard, and (4)a well designed inspection, testing, and maintenance program. These reliability engineering

29、 concepts are important when evaluating reliability estimates reported in the literature. Depending on the data used in a given analysis, the reliability estimate may relate to one or more of the concepts presented above. The literature review conducted under the scope of this effort addresses these

30、 concepts where appropriate. Most of the information that was obtained from the literature in support of this paper were reported in terms of unconditional operationaZ reliability, i.e., in terms of the probability that a fire protection strategy will not faiZ dangerous. LITERATURE REVIEW A literatu

31、re search was conducted to gather reliability data of all types for fire safety systems relevant to the protection strategies considered: automatic suppression, automatic detection, and compartmentation. The objective of the literature search was to obtain system-specific reliability estimates for t

32、he performance of each type of fire safety system as a function of generic occupancy type (e.g., residential, commercial, and institutional). Sources of information included national fire incident database reports, US Department of Defense safety records, industry and occupancy specific studies, ins

33、urance industry historical records and inspection reports documented in the open literature, and experimental data. Reports on experimental work and fire testing results were utilized only when fire detection, automatic suppression, or compartmentation strategies were explicitly evaluated. Tests of

34、systems used for qualification, approval, or listing were also reviewed for information on failure modes. Published data from the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand were included. General Studies Several broad based studies were identified that reported reliability estimates for fire

35、detection and fire suppression systems as well as construction compartmentation. These included (1) the Warrington Fire Research study 1996 in the United Kingdom, (2) the Australian Fire Engineering Guidelines Fire Code Reform Center, 19961,(3) a compilation of fire statistics for Tokyo, Japan Tokyo

36、Fire Department, 19971,and (4)results from a study of in situ performance of fire protection systems in Japan Watanabe, 19791. The Warrington Fire Research study addressed the reliability of fire safety systems and the interaction of their components. A Delphi methodology was used to develop discret

37、e estimates of the reliability of detection and alarm systems, fire suppression systems, automatic smoke control systems, and passive fire protection (e.g., compartmentation). The Australian Fire Engineering Guidelines were developed as the engineering code of practice supporting the new performance

38、-based Building Code of Australia. Following the methods in this guide, building fire safety performance is evaluated for smouldering, flaming non-flashover, and flaming flashover fires. The performance (ie., probability of detecting, extinguishing or controlling a fire event) of fire safety systems

39、 is predicted, accounting explicitly for the operational reliability of the particular system. Reliability estimates from an expert panel rather than from actual data are provided in the Guideline for this purpose. Finally, operational reliability data were reported in two separate studies in Japan.

40、 One study involved evaluation of fire incident reports from the city of Tokyo during the period from 1990 to 1997 TokyoFire Department 19971. The other study involved review of fire incident reports throughout Japan during an earlier time period ending in 1978 Watanabe 19791. Table 1provides a summ

41、ary of the reliability estimatesprovided in these studies. Significant differences exist in the individual reliability estimates depending on the parameters used to develop these estimates. Depending on the required accuracy in predicting future operational performance of fire protection systems, de

42、pendence on the range of estimates from these studies could significantly alter the results. In addition, the uncertainty associated with a single estimate of reliability or the existence of potentially important biases in the methods used to derive these estimates may limit their direct usefulness

43、in addressing either operational or performance reliability of fire protection systems. Table 1. Published Estimates for Fire Protection Systems Operational Reliability (Probability of Success (YO) NA= Not Addressed Review of Available Reliability Data Due to the limited applicability of the reliabi

44、lity estimates published in the general literature, the literature review was extended in an effort to (1) develop an improved understanding of the elements of each of the three strategies under consideration that influence reliability, and (2) identify and evaluate quantitative data regarding indiv

45、idual system operability and failure rates. Automatic Suppression Systems (i.e., sprinkler systems) Table 2 provides a summary of reported operational reliability estimates from several studies that evaluated actual fire incidents in which automatic sprinklers were present. As a group, these studies

46、 vary significantly in terms of the reporting time periods, the types of occupancies, and the level of detail regarding the types of fires and the sprinkler system design. The estimates presented in Table 2 generally indicate relatively high operational reliability for automatic sprinkler systems. W

47、hile some of the references include fire “control” or “extinguishment” as part of the reliability assessment, the reported data were not consistent. Therefore, operational reliability was assumed to be limited to sprinkler operation. The estimates also indicate a range of values, suggesting that it

48、would be inappropriate to assign a single value for sprinkler system reliability without attention to biases in the data sources and general uncertainty associated with combining data from different databases. ” 中文译文：消防系统运行可靠性的估计在过去三年中，（美国）国家标准与技术局（NIST）已在研究开发一种新的加密标准，以确保政府的信息安全。该组织目前正处于为新的先进加密标准（AE

49、S）选择一个或几个算法或数据打乱公式的开放过程的最后阶段，并计划在夏末或秋初作出决定。此标准内定明年实施。 Richard W. Bukowski：体育，高级工程师，瑟斯堡建筑及消防研究实验室的MST，美国医学博士20899-8642；Edward K. Budnick：体育、巴尔的摩休斯联合公司副总裁 ,美国美国医学博士21227-1652；Christopher F. Scheme1，克里斯托弗计划1，巴尔的摩休斯联合公司化学工程师、美国医学博士21227-1652；前言背景资料：为执行特定功能而设计和安装的美国消防计划. 例如,自动喷水灭火系统目的在于控制或扑灭火灾:为此: 自动灭火系统

50、必须长开, 及能满足火灾地所需水量达到控制或消灭火灾, 火灾探测系统是为了尽早提供火灾预警通报来通知楼内人员安全逃生，并提供 消防通知,使其他的消防组成部分开启(例如,特殊灭火系统、排烟系统). 两种消防系统启动(检测)和(警报)必须达到尽早报警. 建筑防火墙的一般设计目的为：限制火灾蔓延的程度,和保持建筑物的结构 的完整以及在火灾发生时保护逃生路线的安全性. 为了做到这一点, 特殊的消防系统必须按标准测试及保持特殊消防系统完整性的特点. 消防系统的组成部分如探测系统,自动灭火系统、防火墙的可靠性，在于提高基于设计基础上的联合演习的细节分析的投入。在安全系统方面,有几个可靠性要素包括有效和能使

51、用的可靠性， 运行可靠性提供一定程度的概率,即消防系统在需要时运行. 运行可靠性能在特定的火灾情况下利用起特点成功完成起任务的一种检测手段。前者是系统组成和可靠性的评估,而后者是系统设计适宜性的评估.这项研究的范围仅限于运行可靠性的评估，其主要原因是在于来自文献资料内容的可靠性. 除了这项业务区分可靠性和性能, 无条件评估的可靠性和故障估计的研究范围在失控的火灾中列出.在该文件的后面将会提供这些条款的讨论. 研究范围：这份文件中提供了关于(1)火灾探测(2)有限范围内的自动灭火(3)放火墙的运行可靠性和执行可靠性的一些观点. 一般而言,火灾检测的可靠性大都在于烟气检测或火灾报警系统。自动喷头构

52、成了大部分的自动灭火的数据，放火墙包括分区放火和围墙的完整性。应当指出,在某些情况下,该文献不会超出一般火灾探测 或自动灭火的范畴和要求假设具体类型消防系统. 几项研究报告估计了火灾探测的可靠性和自动灭火系统计划. 然而,对被动放火系统如防火分区的详细评估很少被发现. 根据有限的统计资料经分析后，被用来归纳包括评估和不确定的关联性等信息. 后者的作用仅限于文献资料在检测和灭火时的评估.放火分区的可靠性也包括与之关联的不可靠数据.这份报告列出了与放火系统相关的可靠性原理. 为了回顾分析和重要发展以及数据概括.在文献检索时被完成。该文献中适用于喷头、烟雾侦测系统可靠性的数据已经被分析筛选。这些数据

53、是描述防火系统运行可靠性在均值和95%的置信区间时的可靠性。可靠性分析的原理在文献中的数据可靠性和相关分析上有很大的变化。基本上， 可靠性是一种概率的估计,即一个系统或组成部分在一定时间内按照设计正常运行. 其组成部分在正常运行或预期寿命的时间中、 这一时期是改写的一个组成部分,是每次测试都发现是运行正常的一个时.因此,系统及其组成部件越经常测试和维修保养,他们就越为可靠. 这种形式的可靠性就叫做无条件. 系统正常运行的可靠性是无条件的概率的估计。有条件的可靠性是对所提及的两件事情的估计，即发生火灾和消防系统成功运行在同一个时间内发生。可靠性估计并不认为火灾发生的几率是无条件的估计。涉及到运行

54、可靠性的其他两个重要概念是安全故障和危险故障. 无火灾发生时,消防系统却运行叫做安全故障。一个常见的例子就是一个烟雾探测器的假报警现象. 发生火灾时而消防系统却不起作用，这叫做危险故障。在这项研究中不能有效使用的概率(1-可靠性估计)称为危险故障.火灾期间自喷系统不能运行或者运行系统不能控制或扑灭火灾都是这种类型的失误。整个系统的可靠性取决于各个组成部分的可靠性及其相应的失败率, 系统组成部分的相互依存性，安装后系统及其组成部分在维修和测试时所出拒的评估。考虑到关键的可靠性时也涉及到消防系统的性能。系统性能被定义为某一特定系统的能力，为完成其设计安装的任务。例如：被评估为性能分离的系统,是基于

55、在火灾期间各个组成部分在保持建筑物的构造和防止火灾蔓延时的作用。系统性能根据其各个组件控制火灾蔓延的程度来界定。性能可靠性评估所需要的数据在于，消防系统在一般和大规模火灾情况下完成设计目的的程度，性能可靠性的数据通过复检这些数据的来源。因为这些作用取决于显示数据的内容，因此，这不是某单方面的作用。各种类型系统失败的原因通常分为几大类：安装错误，设计错误，制造/设备缺陷，缺乏保养，超过设计限额和环境因素，有几种方法可以利用以减少失败的概率，这些方法包括：(1)冗余设计,(2)积极监测故障,(3)提供最简单的系统(即最少的部件)为解决危险,以及(4)一个设计检验、测试、维修计划.这些运行可靠性的概

56、念都是重要的，当运行可靠性评估在温宪忠报道时，因为在某一分析中用到的资料，可靠性评估可能用到一个或多个上述概念，在这一范围内阅读这一文献时可酌情处理，大部分数据是从支持这份论文的文献中获取得，这些文献却符合在无条件运行可靠性！文献检索文献检索是搜集各种类型消防系统可能性的数据，这些数据被认为与安全计划有关：自动灭火，自动检测，和消防隔离。文献检索的目的是获得特殊系统的运行可靠性评估，这些特殊系统中每一种类型的消防系统都为一般的居住物（如住宅，商业建筑和公用建筑）。信息来源包括全国火灾事故的数据资料，美国国防部安全记录工业和住房的特殊研究，工业保险历史记录和检查报告的公开文献和 试验数据。试点工

57、作和火灾测试结果的报告只有在火灾探测、自动灭火或者防火隔离计划时被明确评价是被利用，测试系统用于资格核准或列表，并且用于审查失效方式的资料，英国公布的数据也包括日本、澳大利亚和新西兰在内。常识多个基础广泛的研究报告指出,这份调查是关于火灾探测和灭火系统还有防火分区的可靠性。这些包括(1)火灾研究1996托比在英国 (2)澳大利亚消防工程索引消防法改革中心、1996,(3)日本东京火灾统计汇编 东京消防处、1997、 (四)日本研究消防系统根源的成果渡边1979. 托比消防研究所致力于解决消防系统的可靠性和各组成部分的相互作用. 德尔菲方法是一种用来揭示各个组成部分单独使用时的可靠性估计。组成部

58、分包括：火灾探测、报警系统、灭火系统、自动排烟系统和被动防火（如防火隔离）。澳大利亚消防工程指导守则提出了工程法规依据了新的工作标准，即澳大利亚消防工程法规。在这个方法的指导下,为燃烟、燃烧但无火花的火焰、和燃烧又有火焰建立防火安全性能评估。消防系统的工作情况（即探测概率、灭火或控制火灾）完全根据各个特殊系统运行可靠性来预测。在这份指导手册中可靠性评估来自一个专家小组而不是来自实际数据。最后，运行可靠性的数据分别在日本被两个不同的研究小组公布，一个研究小组涉及东京从1990-1997年间的火灾事故评估东京消防处1997. 另一个研究小组涉及日本全国从早期到 1978年为止的火灾事故报告评估研究

59、渡边 1979.表1概述了这些研究提供了可靠的估计. 单独的可靠性估计存在个别差异取决于这些估计所用的参数. 因为消防系统需要准确预测未来的运行性能，从这些研究上导致的可靠性变化，将引起结果的显著改变。此外，不确定性伴随着一种单一的可靠性评估或者在这些推导可靠性的方法中存在某种潜在的偏见，可能限制它们在消防系统中研究运行可靠性或可靠性性能的指导作用。表1：消防系统运行可靠性评估的公告（成功率）由于在一般的文献中可靠性估计的使用性有限,审查文献是扩展了它的作用在(1)建立一个完善的原理，该原理是关于被认为能影响可靠性的三种策略，并且(二)确定并评价关系到单独系统可操作性和故障率的一定数据。自动灭

60、火系统(即 洒水系统)表2概述了一些研究报告估计,评价实际火灾事故中自动洒水系统灭火的运行可靠性。作为一个群体,这些研究报告差异很大,在时间周期、房屋类型、 和详细程度关系到火灾的类型和洒水系统设计.表2所显示的自喷系统的运行可靠性估计一般相对较高，而一些研究提出把火灾控制或火灾失效,作为可靠性评估的一部分,但该报告的数据却并不一致. 因此,运行可靠性假定为限喷洒操作. 评估也应显示价值范围，暗示不宜使用一个自喷系统可靠性而不注意数据的偏差和一般的从不同数据库不确定性数据源相结合。原预算表2由可靠性估计范围由81.13%到99.5%泰勒maybee,marryat.81%的偏低价值与泰勒的研究

61、中和一些被kook估计过高的（即87.6%）的报告，这些出现重大偏差的数据在这些研究中使用。在这两种研究中，发生火灾的次数十分少，并且在数据库中不区分自动灭火系统和其他的灭火系统。最终maybee和marryat报告中的99.5%高估计反映了自喷系统在检查、检测和维修是严谨的和有案可稽的。在自喷系统可取得的数据中，另一个重要的限制是大部分的自喷系统包括记载喷水的事故。在这些研究中，很有限的事故数据也参考了快速反应或适宜的喷水技术。在评估适宜喷水系统的可靠性时应特别关注几个因素，包括(1)允许复盖范围内,(2)供水能力较低, (3)在火灾中无遥控或警报系统的潜力很大。基于此，还有与这些技术（如维

62、修水平）相关的其他因素可以直接影响这些类型的自喷系统的运行可靠性. 另外，还需要解决这些问题时的系统数据，但基于后来的观察和一般住宅一般不太可能保持正常，一些旨在保证住宅自喷系统运行可靠性的东西可能被降低。火灾探测或警报系统表3提供了一份关于用于住宅系统运行可靠性分析的概述，评估包括平均可能性和95%的置信区间都是基于HALL1955提供的数据所预估的。平均可靠性估计的范围从68%至88%不等.这些标准同托比德尔菲研究所所提供的可靠性数字相一致。然而，95%的置信区间的一般范围为66%至90%。表3：烟雾探测器的可靠性分析HALL，1955防火分区依靠各种类型器材的功能例如：门（包括固定器材）、墙壁、地板/天花板、渗透孔、玻璃窗、防火卷帘、防烟材料和建筑物。当防火分区被认为是防火计划中的重点时，在文献中有很少的数据认为单个组成部分的运行作用于防火分区。单个为建筑的评估和运行可靠性在WARRIGTON的研究中和澳大利亚消防工程索引中被提到。但这些评估是完全基于专家的判断。因此不会提供更加深入的分析。统计数据和不可靠估计文献资料概括了先前部分提供的描述自动喷水系统和火灾探测可靠性评估的信息和数据。自动喷水系统可靠性的数据有几个出处，火灾探测的可靠性评估仅来自一个会议，HALL1944。这个会议包括十年（1983-1992）