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1、he End Is Notat HanTenronental retoric ovblow.The planill surveRoert J amuelonWhoevecod he phra saete plnet is apubic elain ni It convey th seseof impedng cattrphe nd hpose tat hs wpped envronmetalism n n aura o mora ugny.Ialstpifis enviromentalims hetoal xsse, hich,in noher one, wudbeseen awd exagg

2、eratin or spe dshnety.无论是谁杜撰了“拯救地球 ”这一说法，她都是一位公共关系方面的天才。这一说法既体现了对即将来临的灭顶之灾的意识，也满怀着使环保论带有道义急切感这一大的目的。同步这种说法也表白环保论言过其实，这种夸张在其她任何场合都会被视为是在危言耸听或愚蠢的欺骗。p a poit, ouenrntal awrenssh cked a midess enthusias nestai conomic grwt.We have sensiby cubed o oths rflsidefect. Bt nvironentals ncreasingly emlsa holcr

3、uad addite ohye andnrant of hstryvey environmenalilli depited s nonrushing calamity tatif no stopd will end lf asw know it.就某种限度而言,我们的环境意识遏制了对自由经济增长所体现出的盲目热情。我们已明智地克制了增长中所浮现的某些有害的副作用，但是环保论却越来越像一场沉缅于狂热的宣传与对历史一无所知的圣战。每一由环境问题引起的不幸都被描绘成一场势不可挡的劫难。这场劫难如不加以制止,正像我们所知晓的那样,就会摧毁生命。akthe test sare: th greehous

4、effct. We rereseted with the horriyingspecte f orld thaincineate tsef.ct now,or sizle le. Fod supplie wil with. Glacrs will elt. oastal ea will food. In at, te poable lsses fr an rnhouse wrmng are mdes： 1 o2 percnt oor coys oupu b te year 200， etts ecnomstWllia ClieTh los seems evn smll cared with t

5、eeectedgrowth f te economy (adoubling） ovresamriod.以近来浮现的恐慌温室效应为例。展目前我们面前的是一种自我焚毁、可怕的幽灵般的世界。即刻行动，否则世界将咝咝烧焦。食品供应即将枯竭。冰川即将溶化。沿海地区即将沉没。事实上，任何温室热效应也许导致的损失都是有限的:经济学家威廉克莱恩估计，到00年只占我们经济产出的 1%到 。与预想的同期经济增长 (翻一番 )相比,这一损失更显得微局限性道。o nironmenl pblm taensh plat r rtes wth t angr ofanucearwarNo ispil ever caued s

6、uffering on a pr ttodays civil war in Yuosaia, wic s mnor epoe n huan mi.Wrd Warleftme tan 35 illion ead. Camodia ivl war reulted in 1 milinto 3 milon atsThe gre scourgesof humnity ainhat ty have alys en: w, natura dsaste,orsse goermnt, crushin pvy anhate nany sclftey,envirnmentalistress s featherwe

7、ight.没有任何环境问题威胁这颗 “星球 ”，任何环境问题无法用核战争所带所来的危害来衡量。任何石油溢出导致的危害也无法同今日南斯拉夫内战它但是是人类苦难中的一段小插曲相比拟。第二次世界大战导致 500多万人死亡。柬埔寨内战导致100至300万人死亡。人类的巨大祸害一如既往:战争、自然灾害、暴虐政府、极度的贫困与仇恨。在悲剧的任何尺度上,环境问题导致的痛苦都轻如鸿毛。This inoan argumet r indifrene ornacton. It is n rment for perspctie ad alane. You can bliee(as I do） that he poss

8、ibiity of greenhuse warmn eaces a aead strongefan eegy tx. tax woulcurbordinar airlutin, limit oil iports， uttheudge defiitnd promotenergy effcient iestmen that aeeonic ee这并非在为漠不关怀或无动于衷进行辩解,这是在为前程和平衡而进行辩论。你可以相信 (像我那样 ），温室热效应的也许性强化了已具说服力的征缴能源税的理由。税收会克制一般的空气污染，限制石油进口，减少预算赤字并提高具有经济意义的能效投入。But it does n

9、fol hat anowho disagee wih e is evil or even rog.Othe reense ect,orinanc, hes am scifc ouboverweher wamin ll cur an, ifo,how uch. Morove, te warmingwou occur verdedes. Ppeadbsinee uld djt. Totake ne exaple: armers old shift to moe heat-reisant ds.但这并非意味着同我观点相悖的人就是居心叵测，或甚至是错误的。例如,就温室效应而言,热效应与否会发生，如果发

10、生,其限度如何，对此类问题还存在大量的科学疑问。此外,热效应的发生需几十年的时间。人与行业可以进行调节。举一例：农民可改用更为耐热的种子。Unforunly, te mpue of many enironmentalsts so viiyand impliy. Critcs of environmental retricins ar porray asslfih and inorant cre.Dosday senris ar deeloeto rovehseriousnes envirmntal ngers. lnes rcet enhose tu pojecedwaring 20 ear

11、n he future. Gues wht,t incesessharpy.This san abur ercis akn to prediing ife n 199 atheime FncadIdian Wa (1754176)遗憾的是,许多环保论者感情用事，搞中伤和将事情简朴化。环境限制法的批评者被描绘为自擅自利、愚昧无知的小人。创作出了有关世界末日的电影剧本以证明环境危险的严重性。克莱恩近来对温室效应的研究呈现了热效应在此后 250年间的变化。猜猜吧,成果是什么 ?它在急剧增长。这就类似于一种在法印战争（75476）时期预言 992的生活的无稽之谈。Therril overkil ot

12、justinct eess. It ouds o udetandin. For rters, i minzs th gre progres tt h ee made，especiall in indurialzed cutries. InthUnited States, airad water poll haedo drmaticy.Snce196, paticulate eissin (so, cins) ar do y 5 percnt Leademissions hae falle by 7ent since 197. mg has delie in ost cities.大谈特谈过多的

13、伤亡并非过度的无知，它混淆人们的视听。对工业刚起步的国家来说,它低估了特别是工业化国家已获得的巨大成就。在美国，空气与水污染已得到明显缓和。自10年以来，微颗粒物排放量（煤灰、煤渣)已下降 65%。自 197年以来,铅排放量已减少 97%。在大多数都市中,烟雾已减少。Whatss lost i h aard essi fochoic. You envronmntalbnft may be my jot evybenefts worth haing a an cost.Econoiss esimate tat envronental euation dpresthe economysotpuby

14、2.6t 5 ercent, r aout $10billin t $90 bllion. (ote: this islgertathestiateimpac of gobal wrmng.） Fo tha cost, wve lwered halh riss nd mpe our srrundins. But someais ar mal compared with thecst. nd soe costs areneedlessyhgh becaue regultons arerigd.同步我们也受到损失。这就是必须进行棘手的选择。你在环保方面所得到的好处也许就是我应尽的义务。并非每种利益

15、都值得不惜任何代价而求之。经济学家估计,环境法规使经济产出下降 2.%至5%,或 1 500亿至 2 00亿美元（注:这一数字不小于全球热效应的估计影响)。我们用这一代价的确减轻了给身体所带来的危害，并且改善了我们的环境。但是，有些却得不偿失，并且由于法规的刻板僵化而使得某些代价毫无必要地上升。Balce： The worst si of nvionmntal exs is itsbisagains cnoigrowthThe cre orthe imense probems ofpor ountries usuall lies wit conomic rth. A rcenrepot fo

16、te Wold Ban imaesthat more an 1 bllio pope lack helth ater upplies and anitayfailities.he esltis hundrd of milionso cases ofdrrhea nually and he deah of 3 mill hildn (2 illo of whichthe WorldBak jues avoidale). Onlybcomig eather an countries cret tese codios.平衡:过份夸张环境作用的最大罪过是对经济增长所执的偏见。解决贫困国家所存在的大量问

17、题一般与经济增长息息有关。世界银行近来的一份报告估计， 10亿多人缺少健康用水和卫生设施。其成果是每年成千百万人患痢疾,并导致三百万小朋友死亡（世界银行觉得,其中 200万人可以免于死亡)。国家只有变得富裕起来才干变化这些状况。Simlary, wealthrsoceies ave bt the desrend e incom tclan their r andwater. dvanc ntonsha urbn-r-pllutineelsonly a sixth tat of thepooes outries Fna， eonomc gowth ten toeduce high birtrat

18、es, as hlrn suvive logrand wmenescap raitialoes.与此同理,较富庶的国家既具有愿望也具有财政收入来静化空气和用水，发达国家的都市空气污染仅为贫穷国家的六分之一。最后,经济增长将减少高的出生率，由于小朋友寿命延长了,妇女也挣脱了老式的角色。e, whave envionmental probems. Reactor i teormer Soviet Unn posesaetyrisks. Econmic growt an te envirnent can e atods.Growth genrtes rdioxide eissins nd auses

19、 more wate ut thse prolmare not a nvirnmntalrhtricimpls - the ainobstales sustaed dvopment.Thegest hurde isnept goverment. Inept govenentfsee unsfe ectors. Inept ovrnment hampers food prouin n poor untres by, ay, prevntingfamrs rm earnin adeate eturs o their cros.的确，我们存在环境问题。前苏联的反映堆给安全导致威胁。经济增长与环境会发

20、生矛盾。增长产生二氧化碳排放物，并且导致更多的废弃物。但是这些问题并不像环保论者夸夸其谈的那样，是持续发展的重要障碍。最大的障碍是无能的政府。无能的政府哺育出无安全保障的反映堆。在贫穷的国家，无能的政府，例如说，通过限止农民从其作物中获得合适的利润，阻碍食品生产。By now， evryne anvionmentaistt the abel increasingly meaings, bcause nt all ronmental blms areeqally erious a even theious ons eblce aainsthe cncerns Envirnentalis shol

21、d hl tehy It houd nforms more and frtnus ess.到目前为止，人人都是环保论者,但是这种说法越来越没故意义，由于并非一切环境问题都同样严重，甚至虽然那些严重的环境问题也需要同其她利害关系来均衡考虑。环保论应当终结那种刺激性宣传。它应当予以我们更多某些信息，更少某些吓唬。Suplemetry ReadingJAKTA- Plaet Earthwa baere b flod, drout and fire in 1997, earwih ened with teworlsmao pollutrsquablngovways to revt frther nvi

22、rnmental dissterTh 160natio atending UN cferen on globa ring, bild one oftheos talev held,finalrad aonsensus n cuttingrenas emsons thrgh next decde.Te cmate a domiaed n thatr part of year by El Nino, an upswellino warmerwateroff the South Ameria oasthic ffects oba weather paterns. Ithink or urethemo

23、t draatc tinghas ben te ino phenoeo that h ben exereced thruou te tropc, said Jeffey Ser，dirto generofe nterntiona Centre o ForstrResearh (COR），a Bogor nar Jakarta.l Nin， calld yPeruvian fsemn aftthe rist Chl bcuse of ts appearnceaonChitmas, is ein blamed r widepread flods anddrugh in he topic， dha

24、afected otherareas aswell.Amomanifestation o thepheneowas drouh-agraad bush fire iIndnesi that srad a okingmog acos lrgereas of Sotheas sa efore bad dela onoonrainatedto fall inlt Noembe.loowt id Somalian East Afrc， while the ain frestsf Indesislria Jaa rid outand undes o tiseole dedfrom station and

25、 disease.Apt froE Nino, easter ad entlEurope ufered teworst foo nliingemory iearly Jul, wthve 00 eple klled in Poland andhe Ce ublc, ndmanythusands offamils displaced throug th region nd estern ermay.I th ancienJapaese caita ofKyto， a UN atheriof 159 coutriesinal agreedon uting geenhouse a emissns a

26、ftr 11 das ffrtic neoitios.Perhps his aywillbein the fure remmberd as teDayof the Atosphre, confrence chairman Raul trada ldthe cnference fter treatext as pssdby onensus on ecemer1Tconfeece agree tatdeeloped naions shold cut emisif arbo dixdend otrgrenhouseaes blamedfo glbal arming.e Un Statesaccept

27、ea r cet cut om 190 levelby212, t Eropea Union 8 erent ad Japan6 pr cent onferen ccpted cietfevidence tat heating of tEarhs suface y gstrappe in th amoser cuss moe and ierce torms， expadig dets, metng plric anraising elvel whihthratent submergelow lyiisadad some slan state, sch as thalves in hIndian

28、 Oc.e UntedStats want developing countie broughunder theemissi cotrl mbel ndthetrey stll fesa major hde in its passage n Wshingtonthogha tentaly hostile Repblian Congres.US Vi Presdnt Alecalld heKyotoagrement vial turnigoint， buthd the U Einet Ministei Bjegaar tat ore sil neded tobe de. Thsoood enou

29、gh r th fuure.we woul lke thepares o bmor amitious,Bjereardsid.dnes Envionment Ministe arono Kuumaj sidit wa ut thdeveoe ontrs toprovide th adersh to guaranee EatsfutureTheKyotonferee wldatlast roia grater aarnes of nvonentalproblems, prticularlyas it too lace in nENinoyar.But he is lwas a ime lag b

30、etwn aarenessandctin, nd hink tat h tieag can be vrylog.he sai.e also cndemd Wesern crtcis of he envirnental an consvationpolicie of dvelopig cuntri， sayng aet forcs we rnsibefor many o e problems.Bicl,w facin roblemsith e presencontemporrycivlizationitisnsumptin and pouio attitud.he market i ntfrie

31、ndly to thevironment ,and weae rtf markt.It is to i a poblem o s to ande .so thy wat have theirke ad et it.Theywanto hvetei maret anthey wantt haeu prform as guardans ofhe worlds viromet withot them aving anthing to o ith t.h Kyoto oferne lso ite bgbuness aginst capager or heenvionentalhgh mrsuane orgnzatin did ffer supor tote geens.CFO Sayertold repoters tat jor deveopnt i th last wo or three yer ws the emergene ofmajormultinional crprationin he globaltimber industy.hiss not necesaily a bad thng because tose companies al hav eresre topractice sutinleforestry if the are motivated to d o.