2021年商品市场展望--英文

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1、A World Bank ReportAPRIL 2021CommodityMarketsOutlookCauses and Consequencesof Metal Price ShocksSCAApr瞬网U01幽司柒羯蒯那AWbrid Bank即曾於APRIL 2021CommodityMarketsOutlookWORLD BANKGROUP 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1

2、000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved.This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank,its Board of ExecutiveDirectors,or the govern

3、ments they represent.The maps were produced by the Map Design Unit of the World Bank.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on these maps do not imply,on the part of the World Bank Group,anyjudg

4、ment on the legal status of any territory,or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofthe World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsAttributionP

5、lease cite the work as follows:World Bank Group.2021.Commodity Markets Outlook:Causes andConsequences of Metal Price Shocks,April 2021.World Bank,Washington,DC.License:Creative CommonsAttribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.TranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer a

6、long with the attribution:This translation was not created by the World Bank and should not be considered an offidal World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following dis

7、claimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by the World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are thesole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by the World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necess

8、arily own each component of the content contained withinthe work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component orpart contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from suchinfringement

9、 rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility todetermine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examplesof components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on r

10、ights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division,World Bank,1818H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.The cutoff date for the data used in this report was April 16,2021.Table of ContentsAcknowledgments.vExecutive Summary.1Sp

11、ecial Focus:Causes and consequences of metal price shocks.5Commodity Market Developments and Outlook.21Energy.23Agriculture.29Fertilizers.34Metals and Minerals.35Precious Metals.37Appendix A:Historical commodity prices and price forecasts.39Appendix B:Supply-Demand balances.47Appendix C:Description

12、of price and technical notes.79Figures Figure 1 Commodity market developments.2Figure SF.l Oil and metals prices.7Figure SF.2 The importance of energy and metals.8Figure SF.3 Market concentration of metal reserves,production,and consumption.10Figure SF.4 Chinas impact on metal markets.11Figure SF.5

13、Metal price shocks.13Figure SF.6 Metal price shocks to EMDE metal exporters and importers.14Figure SF.7 Copper price shocks to EMDE copper exporters and importer.15Figure 2 Oil market developments.23Figure 3 Oil supply developments.24Figure 4 Oil market outlook.25Figure 5 Natural gas and coal.27Figu

14、re 6 Agricultural price developments.29Figure 7 Supply conditions for grains and edible oils.30Figure 8 Risks to outlook.31Figure 9 Beverage commodity market developments.32Figure 10 Agricultural raw materials market developments.33Figure 11 Fertilizer market developments.34Figure 12 Metals and mine

15、rals market developments.35Figure 13 Precious metals market developments.37iiiTables Table 1 Nominal price indexes and forecast revisions.3Annex Table SF Summary of empirical research on supercycles.17Table A.l Commodity prices.41Table A.2 Commodity prices forecasts in nominal U.S.dollars.43Table A.

16、3 Commodity prices forecasts in constant U.S.dollars(2010=100).44Table A.4 Commodity price index forecasts(2010=100).46AcknowledgmentsThis World Bank Group Report is a product of the Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth,Finance,andInstitutions(EFI)Vice Presidency.The report was managed by John Ba

17、ffes under the general guidance of AyhanKose and Franziska Ohnsorge.Many people contributed to the report.AlainKabundi,Peter Nagle,and Franziska Ohnsorgeauthored the Special Focus on Causes andConsequences of Metal Price Shocks.Sectionauthors include Peter Nagle(energy),John Baffes(agriculture),and

18、Wee Chian Koh(fertilizers,metals,and precious metals).Research assistancewas provided by Arika Kayastha and Jinxin Wu.Maria Hazel Macadangdang produced the supplydemand balance section.Design and productionwas handled by Adriana Maximiliano.GraemeLittler produced the accompanying website.Betty Dow,P

19、atrick Alexander Kirby,GraemeLittler,Shane Streifel,and Temel Taskin reviewedthe report External affairs for the report weremanaged by Alejandra Viveros and supported byMark Felsenthal and Mikael Reventar.Staff of theTranslation and Interpretation Services unitprovided translations of dissemination

20、materials.The World Banks Commodity Markets Outlook ispublished twice a year,in April and October.Thereport provides detailed market analysis for majorcommodity groups,including energy,agriculture,fertilizers,metals,and precious metals.Priceforecasts to 2035 for 46 commodities are presented,together

21、 with historical price data.The report alsocontains production,consumption,and trade statistics for major commodities.Commodity price dataupdates are published separately at the beginning ofeach month.Background analytical work presented in this reportwas generously funded by the Government ofJapan

22、through the Policy and Human ResourcesDevelopment(PHRD)Fund,administered by theWorld Bank Group.The report and data can be accessed at:www.worldbank.org/commoditiesFor inquiries and correspondence,email at:commoditiesworldbank.orgVCOMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2021EXECUTIVE SUMMARYExecutive Summar

23、yCommodity prices continued their recovery in the first quarter of2021f with four-fifths of commodities nowabove their pre-pandemic levels,in some instances considerably so.Prices have been lifted by the global recoveryfivm last years recession,improved growth prospects,and commodity-specific supply

24、 factors for crude oil,copper,and several food commodities.Looking ahead,oil prices are forecast to average$56/bbl in 202lf more thanone-third higher than in 2020,and see a further small rise to$60/hhl in 2022 as demand continues togradually rise.Metal prices are expected to average 30 percent highe

25、r in 2021 than in 2020 on the back ofstrong demand,before dropping back somewhat in 2022.Agriculture prices are forecast to average nearly 14percent higher in 2021,driven by a few food commodities,and are expected to stabilize thereafter.The mainrisks to the price farecasts are the evolution of the

26、pandemic for industrial commodities,and weather shocks foragriculture.A Special Focus section documents the higher frequency,but smaller magnitude,of metals priceshocks than oil price shocks.For some base metals,price declines are associated with significant output declinesin exporters of these comm

27、odities.In these economies,such output declines after price declines are larger andlonger-lasting than output increases following improvements in prices.Recent trendsNearly all commodity prices rose in 2021Q1,continuing the marked rebound since mid-2020(figure l.A),Almost all commodity prices nowexc

28、eed their pre-pandemic levels,and those ofsome commodities,notably metals,are well abovetheir previous levelscopper prices were nearly 50percent higher in March 2021 relative to the endof 2019.The recovery has been driven by theimproving global economic outlook,aided bysignificant monetary and fisca

29、l stimulus inadvanced economies,and steady,althoughuneven,vaccination rates.Energy prices rose by one-third in 2021Q1(q/q),with similar gains across the three main fuels.Crude oil prices have seen the fastest recovery froma price collapse on record,and reached a high ofnearly$70/bbl in mid-March bef

30、ore droppingback to$63/bbl in the first half of April(figurel.B).The recovery has occurred despite oildemand remaining around 5 percent below its2019 level,and has been driven to a large extentby higher-than-expected agreed production cutsamong OPEC and its partners.Prices have alsobeen boosted by t

31、he improving economic outlook,as well as the passing of the U.S.stimulus bill.Coal prices rose 30 percent on the quarter and havealmost doubled since August,largely as a result ofsupply disruptions.Natural gas prices also rose byone-third in 2021Q1(q/q),primarily in responseto cold weather in large

32、markets,including theUnited States,Europe,Asia,and especially Japan.Non-energy commodity prices rose 12 percent in thefirst quarter of 2021(q/q),following a 10 percentincrease during the previous two quarters.TheWorld Banks non-energy commodity price indexhas risen for 11 consecutive months since it

33、strough in April 2020.Base metals and ore pricesrose 16 percent,with strengthening demand acrossadvanced and emerging market and developingeconomies(EMDEs;figure l.C).Metal priceshave also been supported by anticipation that theenergy transition away from fossil fuels will resultin sizeable increase

34、s in demand for metals.Copperprices have also been boosted by supplydisruptions in Peru and Chile,while iron oreprices have been supported by supply disruptionsin Australia.Most agricultural commodity prices,particularly for food commodities,saw substantialincreases as well.Increases were partly dri

35、ven bystrong demand for soybeans and maize fromChina(linked to the recovery from the AfricanSwine Fever and stockpiling),as well as supplyshortfalls in South America(linked to La Nina)and the United States(figure l.D).While globalfood markets remain well-supplied,somecountries have experienced risin

36、g food prices.Outlook and risksEnergy prices are expected to average more thanone-third higher in 2021(a significant upward2EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCOMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2021FIGURE 1 Commodity market developmentsThe recovery in commodity prices continued in the first quarter of 2021,with the thre

37、e main price indices regaining their pre-pandemic levels.Therecovery in oil prices that followed the COVID-19-driven collapse was thefastest recovery from a price collapse on record.However,OPEC+continues to hold significant production off the market,posing a risk to theforecast.For metals,the recov

38、ery in demand is broadening,with strengthacross both advanced economies and EMDEs.Agricultural commodities,particularly food,have seen sharp price increases,and supply growthestimates have been revised down,although stocks remain ample.Index,2019-100A.Commodity price indexes,monthlyLC X.Iuerow.zooc

39、x&lesoCMrn。中Am工ow.lOEM67QN6aBs6L，-m6工Es6TUE-3C.Global metal demand growthD.Global grain supply growthPercent,year-on-year30 OECD China Other non-OECD20100-10-20N.uerOW.O0wo.zo0QPOoC M&as07,_noz-unrOZ工es&JCIVOR乏oedLooe,ue-Percent10-2001-20 average8Sources:USDA.World Bank.World Bureau of Metal Statist

40、ics.A.Last observation is March 2021.B.Lines indicate oil prices for 12 months before and after a price collapse,indexed to 100 at thetrough.Dates indicate the date of the trough in prices for each episode.D.Supply is the sum of beginning stocks and production.Years represent crop seasons(e.g.,2020r

41、efers to 2020-21 crop season).revision from the October report)followed by asmaller increase in 2022(table 1).Non-energyprices are forecast to increase 19 percent in 2021(also revised upward from October),but a modestdecline is expected in 2022 as metal price increasespartially unwind.The outlook is

42、 heavilydependent on the path of the pandemic,with thepotential for additional upside risks if the vaccinerollout gathers pace and strong growth in theUnited States generates significant global spillovers.However,on the downside,the globalrecovery could yet be derailed by renewedoutbreaks in large e

43、conomies.Oil prices are expected to average$56/bbl in 2021before rising to$60/bbl in 2022,a substantialupward revision from the October report.Therevision reflects the improved global economicgrowth outlook,as well as a more gradual increasein production by OPEC and its partners(OPEC+)than previousl

44、y expected.However,a furtherdeterioration in oil demand,perhaps arising froma renewed outbreak of COVID-19 could putconsiderable additional pressure on the OPEC+production agreement.An end to the agreementand a sudden increase in global production couldresult in oil prices being materially lower tha

45、ncurrently expected.A further risk is the responseof U.S.shale to higher pricesa faster thanexpected recovery in U.S.production would alsoput significant pressure on the OPEC+producers.Metal prices are forecast to rise nearly 30 percent in2021 before dropping back in 2022,as stimulusdriven growth ea

46、ses and supply constraints areresolved.Risks to the forecast depend on majorstimulus programs.A faster-than-expected withdrawal of stimulus by China would pose asignificant downside risk to demand while theproposed infrastructure spending bill in theUnited States could provide further support forsom

47、e metals,including aluminum,copper,andiron ore.Agricultural prices,which are projected to risenearly 14 percent in 2021,are expected to stabilizein 2022.Production shortfalls in some foodcommodities,such as soybeans,palm oil,andmaize,have resulted in steep price increases;however,most global food co

48、mmodity marketsremain adequately supplied by historical measures.While the stock-to-use ratio,a rough measure ofdemand relative to supply,has fallen slightlyduring the past two crop seasons to around 28percent,it is still much higher than the historicallows of 2006-07 of 17 percent.Despite well-supp

49、lied global markets and expectations ofmoderating food commodity prices,global foodinsecurity remains a concern.An additional 130million people face chronic hunger and malnutrition because of the economic impacts ofCOVID-19,effectively doubling the number toCOMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2021EXECUT

50、IVE SUMMARY3TABLE 1 Nominal price indexes and forecast revisionsI Price Indexes(2010=100)12022f2Change(%),q/qChange(%),y/yForecast revision3I2018201920202021fa2020Q42021Q12021f22022f 22021f22022f2Energy87765271758.335.336.16.126.8-5.9Non-Energy4858284100979.311.819.0-3.517.3-5.0Agriculture8783879910

51、08.79.313.51.012.1-0.5Beverages7976808183-2.51.91.41.60.30.5Food90879210810911.912.317.10.915.6-0.6Oils and meals85779011611722.412.929.00.927.2-0.9Grains89899310610710.717.213.80.912.3-0.6Other food999895100101-0.16.85.20.94.2-0.1Raw Materials81787885866.04.29.80.98.1-0.8Fertilizers83817393884.423.

52、527.1-5.023.98.2Metals and Minerals8378791039111.216.030.4-12.128.3-13.4Precious Metals97105134134125-1.6-1.90.1-6.83.8-4.9Memorandum itemsCrude oil($/bbl)s68614156603.835.935.77.128.4-6.5Gold($/toz)1,2691,3921,7701,7001,600-2.0-4.1-4.0-5.9-2.0-3.5Source:World Bank.Note:(1)Numbers may differ from ta

53、bles A.1-4 due to rounding.(2)f denotes forecasts.(3)Denotes percentage points revision to the growth forecasts from the October2020 report.(4)The non-energy price index excludes precious metals.(5)Average of Brent,Dubai,and WTI.See Appendix C for definitions of prices and indexes.over 270 million,a

54、ccording to estimates by theUN Food and Agriculture Organization.Special Focus:Causes and consequencesof metal price shocksAlthough they only account for around 7 percentof global commodity consumption,metalsespecially copper and aluminumare a majorsource of export revenue for around one-third ofEMD

55、Es.However,these economies reliance onmetal exports can make them vulnerable to sharpmovements in metal prices.Metal price shocks areprimarily driven by demand factors,such as globalrecessions and recoveries,in contrast to oil whereboth supply and demand factors play a role,andagriculture where supp

56、ly factors dominate.Assuch,metals can have a procyclical impact onmetal exportersduring a recession,metalexporters can be negatively affected by both thebroader economic downturn that caused the metalprice decline,and by the adverse effects of acollapse in metal prices on export revenue andeconomic

57、activity.For metal exporting-EMDEs,metal price shocks appear to have asymmetricimpacts,with small,temporary gains from priceincreases,but larger and longer-lasting outputlosses from price declines.These results suggestthe need for metal exporters to save windfalls frommetal price increases(which are

58、 typically shortlived),such that savings can be used to supportactivity when prices decline.SPECIAL FOCUSCauses and consequencesof metal price shocksCOMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK|APRIL 2021SPECIAL FOCUS7Causes and consequencesof metal price shocksThe 2020 global recession triggered by the COVID-19 pande

59、mic delivered a major shock to commodity markets.Althoughthey have since rebounded,oil prices fell by 60 percent between pre-pandemic levels and their trough in April and metalprices fell by 16 percent.These sharp moves in prices can have significant macroeconomic impacts for commodity exporters,wit

60、h many emerging market and developing economies highly reliant on metals,especially copper and aluminum,for exportrevenue.Metal price shocks appear to have asymmetric impacts,with price increases associated with small,temporaryexpansions in activity,but price declines associated with more pronounced

61、 growth slozudowns and fiscal and export revenuelosses.These results highlight the importance of counter-cyclical policy measures when responding to commodity price changes.IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic had divergent impactson different commodity groups(World Bank2020a),Energy prices,particularl

62、y crude oil,plunged at the start of the pandemic,with theprice of Brent crude oil declining by more than 60percent from$64/bbl in January 2020 to a low of$23/bbl in April 2020.In contrast,metal pricesdeclined by only 16 percent over the same periodand quickly regained their pre-pandemic peak.ByMarch

63、 2021,several metal prices had reachedtheir highest level in a decade.Oil and metal prices can be affected by commonshocks,such as global recessions and theirsubsequent recoveries,such that prices move intandem(figure SF.l;Bilgin and Ellwanger,2017;Chiaie,Ferrara,and Giannone,2017).Forexample,both e

64、nergy and metal prices declinedduring the 2009 global recession and rose duringthe subsequent recovery.These periods ofsynchronized price movements can occur both inthe short-run and in the long-runthe pricecycles of oil and metals coincided in the early1970s to mid-1980s,and the early 2000s to late

65、2010s,although metal prices went through anadditional cycle in the mid-1990s(Helbling 2012;World Bank 2020b).Sometimes,however,oil and metals reactdifferently to a common shock or are buffeted bycommodity-specific shocks,including shocks tosupply and technological change(Baffes andKabundi,forthcomin

66、g).The COVID-19 pandemic is one example,with oil being significantlyFIGURE SF.1 Oil and metal pricesOil and metal prices have similar drivers,notably economic growth.Assuch,they tend to follow one another closely,particularly around majoreconomic events like global recessions and recoveries.However,they canalso vary significantly as they are affected by other factors,includingsupply shocks.Notable periods of deviation include the mid-1980s,2011-2014,and most recently the CO VID-19 pandemic.Oil a