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1、July,2001COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALSLogistics Services Industry Environment&Trend Analysis-COSCO Comments and A.T.Kearney RemarksThecontentsofthisdocumentwerepreparedbyA.T.Kearneyandmaynotbeused,alteredordisclosedtootherparties,withoutthewrittenpermissionofA.T.Kearney.Theinformationcontainedinthisdo

2、cumenthasbeenobtainedfromexternalsourceswhichA.T.Kearneybelievesarereliable.However,A.T.Kearneycanmakenorepresentationastotheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationorprojectionsderivedtherefrom.8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/2Table of ContentsnExecutive Summary1.Market Size&Growth

3、GlobalChina2.Service DemandGlobal TrendsChina Trends3.Competitive EnvironmentGlobalChina4.Regulatory Environment5.Information TechnologynAppendix8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/3Executive Summary8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/4A.T.Kearneys definition of the log

4、istics services industryStructuring and managing,on behalf of cargo owners,solutions involving some combination of parts of the supply chain(i.e.transportation,warehousing,(de)consolidation,etc.)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/5The logistics service industry represent a tremendous

5、 growth opportunity,both globally and in ChinaMarket CharacteristicConclusionCustomersareincreasinglydemandinghighvaluelogisticsservicesolutions,requiringglobalreachandadvancedsupplychainmanagementcapabilitiesIncreasingdemandforglobalreachandcapabilitiesfuelsconsolidationaslargefullserviceprovidersa

6、repositioningthemselvesforsuccessChinasentryintoWTOisexpectedtohavetwomainimplications-thelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidly,andcompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincreaseStrongITcapabilitiesisbecomingacorecapabilityoflogisticsservicesprovidersandiscriticaltobuildingalogisticsservicesbusinessMarket Siz

7、e&GrowthService DemandCompetitive EnvironmentRegulatory EnvironmentInformationTechnologySource:A.T.KearneyThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS$190Bnin2000.TheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS$0.61Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGR35%overthenextfiveyears8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOu

8、tlook-final/6The China logistics industry will be shaped by Chinas entry into the WTO and the subsequent opening of the market to foreign competitionIndustry Scenario 2006RapidincreaseinM&AactivitiesKeyalliancesformedwithinthenext2-3yearsRapidexpansionofglobalplayersofferingsophisticatedend-to-endso

9、lution,includinglogistics,transportationandITImplementationofe-commerceinitiativesandincreasingdependenceonITnetworkMergers,Acquisitions and AlliancesGlobal CompetitorsTechnologyThelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidlyCompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincreaseWTO EntrySource:A.T.Kearney8Point/FinalVersio

10、n/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/71.Market Size&Growth8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/8The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$190 Bn in 2000nThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS$190Bnin2000nThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresmarketreachedane

11、stimatedUS$3.8Trillionin2000,andisexpectedtogrowatanannualrateof2.3%overthenext5yearsnTheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS$31Bnin2001andisexpectedtogrowatCAGR39%overthenextfiveyearsnThegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport,warehousing,andtransportmanagementnThegrowthoft

12、hegloballogisticsservicesindustryismainlydrivenbyshipperspropensitytooutsourcelogisticsservicesandorganictransportationmarketgrowthnCustomerelectronics,automotiveandapparelrepresentthemostattractiveopportunitiesforlogisticsservicesinChina8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/9The China

13、market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35%over the next five yearsnTheChinalogisticsservicesmarketisstillsmallatUS$0.61Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyoverthenext5yearsnThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChinanThetransportationandrelatedexpenditu

14、resareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEs-indicatingamajorimprovementopportunitynInCoastalChina,demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghainInInlandChina,thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubei/YangtzeriverregionnGrowthinthelogisticsservic

15、esindustryinChinawillmainlybedrivenbycontinuedmacroeconomicgrowthandincreasedpropensitytooutsourcelogisticsFavorablemacroeconomicoutlookPublicpolicyandspendingIncreasinginterestinoutsourcingforlogisticsneedsGrowingITandE-business8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/10Market Size&Growth

16、-Global8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/11The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$190 Bn in 2000Source:Chinainfobank,CSFB,A.T.KearneyGlobal Transportation and Logistics Market Size(2000)Transportationandrelatedactivitieshandledbymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailer

17、sthemselves(e.g.privatefleet,privatewarehousing)Discretesetsoftransportationandrelatedservicesoutsourcedbymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailers(e.g.publicwarehousingetc.)Combinationof“transportationandrelatedservices”provisionedby3rdpartylogisticsserviceprovidersUS$3,800 BnOutsourcedUS$190 BnGlobal tr

18、ansportation and related expendituresGlobal outsourced transportation and related servicesGlobal logistics outsourcing market8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/12US$BnThe transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$3.8 Trillion in 2000,and is expected to gr

19、ow at an annual rate of 2.3%over the next 5 yearsNote:(1)AsiaincludesJapan,HongKong,Korea,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantone;CSFB;A.T.KearneyAnalysisTransportation and Related Expenditures by Region(2000)Transportation and Related Expenditures by Function(2000)US$BnTotal=US$3,837 BnOthers

20、:-1.4%Asia(1):2.2%Europe:2.6%North America:4.0%3,4243,8374,389CAGR=2.3%CAGR=2.8%Warehousing$304BnTransport$2,204BnOthers$55BnShipper-Related$20BnInventory$1,102BnAdmin$152BnCAGR 2000-20068Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/13The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach

21、 US$31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39%over the next five yearsNote:AsiaincludesChina,Japan,HonkKong,Korea,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantone;CSFB;A.T.KearneyAnalysisLogistics Outsourcing Market in Asia-Gross Revenue(US$Bn)CAGR(99-01)=38%CAGR(01-06)=39%8Point/FinalVersion/Lo

22、gisticsIndustryOutlook-final/14The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport,warehousing,and transport managementTransportWarehousingTransportManagementITSupplementaryLogisticServicesPurchaseOrderManagementLogisticsManagement30%47%48%85%20%40%39%76%23%2%5%16%ofrespondentsoutsourcing199

23、8%ofrespondentsplanedoutsourcing200313%8%Outsourcing by FunctionResourcerequire-mentsComplexityNote:Thepercentagemaynotaddupto100%duetoroundingSource:BasedonseveralA.T.Kearneystudies,including:-Worldwidestudycomprising280participants(automotive19%,electronics25%,retail27%,chemicals29%)-Europeanstudy

24、comprising500participants(retail26%,food&beverage26%,commodities22%,machinery12%,automotive7%,electronics&high-tech4%)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/15Outsourcing of non-core business activitiesOrganic growth of transportation marketsIncreasedcomplexityofglobalsupplychainsRecogni

25、tionbymanyshippersthatsupplychainstrategymaybeakeycompetitiveadvantageWillingnesstooutsourcewhenlogisticsnotseenascorecompetencyDevelopmentofsuperiorlogisticscapabilitybyafew3PLsGrowthindemandfortransportationservicesexpandswithinternationaltradegrowthGlobalizationofmanyindustriesmeansgoodsneedtomov

26、eoverlongerdistancesatfasterspeedswithhigherreliabilityGrowth in Logistics ServicesSource:UBSWarburg,IDCGrowth DriversDetails12 The growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth8Point/

27、FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/16Consumer electronics,automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in ChinaNote:1.Sizeofcirclerelativetosegmentsizein20002.AnalysisisindicativeonlySource:A.T.KearneyfieldinterviewsandresearchHighLowGrowth(2001-

28、2006)RemarksHighlymarket-oriented,needquickresponsetoconsumerfeedbackManufacturershavetotoimproveoperationefficiencycontinuouslyduetointensecompetitionRelativelyhighproductvalueandlesspricesensitiveHighrequirementfortimingandreliabilityoflinersHighgrossmarginindustry,productioncostandlogisticsaccoun

29、tforlesspercentageofsalesPrefertimelyfeedbackfromdestinationports,i.e.tradeconsultingservicesAutomotivesuppliesinvolveover30,000parts,whichneedconsolidatingsupplierstohandlelogisticsIntensecompetitiondrivescompaniestoreducecost,currentinefficiencyinself-handlingleadscompaniestoconsideroutsourcingser

30、vicesactivelyHighvalueproducts,notverypricesensitive,butsometimesdecisionsaremadeoverseasPackingrequirementinvolvestechnicaldifficulties,unwillingtooutsourcelogisticsservicesHighprofitindustry,notverypricesensitiveHighqualityrequirementfordry,nosmell,noleakingcontainers,hencecontainerizedinfactoryCl

31、earanceofcigarettesneedstobedonebyprofessionalI/EcompaniesormanufacturesLargeandspecialshape,thereforethewaytoputthemintocontainerscanimpactthenumberofcontainerstobeused,whichdirectlyrelatedtocost-usuallydonein-houseCostsensitive,firmsusuallychooselessbusyseasontogetcheaperpricesFrozenproductsandfre

32、shproductsneedtobehandledfastwithcareOtherproductsarelow-valueandneednospecialservicesLowvalueproducts,highlypricesensitiveLowerqualityrequirement,usuallycontainerizedatportsConsumer ElectronicsApparelAutomotiveMachineryTobacco&LiquorFurniturePrimary GoodsChemicals&MaterialsIndustryLowHighConsumer C

33、onsumer ElectronicsElectronicsA ApparelpparelAutomotiveAutomotiveOutsourcing PropensityTobacco,Tobacco,LiquorLiquorPrimaryPrimaryGGoodsoodsOpportunity Assessment by IndustryChemicals Chemicals&Materials&MaterialsFurnitureFurnitureMMachineryachineryAdd market and trends analysis by industry8Point/Fin

34、alVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/17Market Size&Growth-China8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/18The China logistics services market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 yearsLogistics Outsourcing Market -Gross Revenue(2000,US$Bn)Note:Asiain

35、cludesChina,Japan,HongKong,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantone;CSFB;A.T.KearneyEstimatesCAGR=35%190230.61China Logistics Service Market(US$,Bn)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/19The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in ChinaCharacteristic

36、sEmergingdemandforoutsourcedlogisticsservicesLowvalueaddedservicessuchastransportandwarehousingarethemajortypeofservicesoutsourcedTraditionalin-housebehaviourbeingimpactedFastgrowthoflogisticsuserbaseandhigherrequirementforbroaderservicesLargenumberofservicesproviderscompetingforcustomersandhumanres

37、ourcesMosthighvalueaddedservicesarefreeandprovidedassellingpointsLogisticsoutsourcingbecomescommonpracticeandanimportantleverforcompetitionConsolidatedservicemarketwithafewestablishedmarketleadersLogisticspenetrateinsupplychainandreplacetraditionalbusinessmodelsGloballogisticsintegratorsprovideone-s

38、topsolutionworldwideSpecializationandclosecooperationamonggloballogisticsserviceprovidersOptimizedallocationandintegrationofresourcesalongthesupplychainStageEmergenceGrowthPenetrationGlobalizationWorld Leading(US)China TodaySource:A.T.Kearney8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/20Wareh

39、ousing and DistributionTruckingRail FreightAlthoughHeavilyUsed,RailwayFreightHasLongTransitTimesandServiceReliabilityIsPoorRailwayContainersAreNotCompatibleWithShippingCompanyContainersAirlineCustoms BrokerageCourierLimitedPresenceofForeignFirmsAsJVE.G.DHLSinotransRegionalSegregationinOperationLogis

40、tics Center and Freight ForwardingShippingThedomesticwarehousingmarketiscurrentlysmallandover-suppliedwithbasicwarehousesprovidingvirtuallynovalue-addedservicesSomeconsolidationjuststartedamongthelargewarehousingcompaniesRivertransportationhasdeclinedMostvesselsarecharacterizedbylowspeedandhighenerg

41、ycostsTruckingcompaniesareonlyallowedtooperateinrestrictedregionsGovernmenthasestablished15FreeTradeZonesandsomelogisticscentersaresetupthereInlandtransportationishandledbydomesticfreightforwarderwhoisusuallysub-contractedbytheinternationalfreightforwarderSevendomesticairlinesdominateregionaloperati

42、onsDesignatedforeigncarriersaregivenamaximumentitlementof50tonnesperweekManycustomsclearingbrokeragefirmsandconsiderableconfusionaboutrolesCustomsclearingprocedurestookatleast-1daypreviouslybutexpectedtobeshortenedto1hourThe logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in Chin

43、a(continued)Source:A.T.KearneyAnalysisChina Logistics Services8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/21Transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs indicating a major improvement opportunityTotal Transportation and

44、Related Expenditures and%of GDP(2000)Note:(1)VAS:Value-added-services(2)Includingpackaging,admin,informationservices,ect.Source:BowersoxandCalantone,CSFB,IMF1997study;Chinainfobank;A.T.KearneyAnalysisUS$BnChina Transportation and Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function(2000)Total=US$248 BnUS$Bn(1

45、)(2)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/22Demand GrowthIn Coastal China,demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and ShanghaiHighLowHebei,Beijing,Tianjin4BeijingistheNo.1aircargocenterinChina.Inaddition,Beijingshi-techindustry,whichneedsalotofairtransportati

46、on,isdevelopingveryfastOver80%ofthevolumethroughTianjinportareagriculturalproducts,furniture,metalhardwareandrawmaterials,allbeinglowvalueproducts.Inaddition,mostshippersareinpoorfinancialconditionsandareverypricesensitiveShandong(Qingdao)4Qingdaohasseveralfamouslocalcompanies,suchasHaier,HiSense,Au

47、kmaandQingdaoBeer.TheyaremorequalityorientedandlesspricesensitiveFrozenproductsaccountfor15-20%ofthevolume.Qualityrequirementsforfrozenproductsareveryhighintermsoftimingandhandlingcare.Hence,frozenproductsshipperstendtobelesspricesensitiveandmorequalityconcernedFootwearandgarmentsaccountforsignifica

48、ntportion.SomelargecustomerssuchasPaylessShoes(No.1customerofCOSCOinvolume)requiresaccurateshippingtimeandfullrangeofsophisticated3PLservicesfromP/Omanagement,tradeconsultingtospacebooking,warehousingandtransportationProvinceLogistics Demand Selected Provinces in Coastal ChinaGuangdongDemand Size5Re

49、marksMajorexportsareprocessingoflowervalue-addedproductsnospecialrequirementforlogisticsquality;Roadtransportationisconvenient,oftencontainerizedinfactorytoreducecostlessneedforwarehousing/consolidationElectronicsindustryisboominginDongguan,whichhassomeleadingcompanieslikeHuaweipotentiallargeprofita

50、blecustomersStrongWeakShanghai(Jiangsu,Zhejiang)5Shanghaiisthefastgrowingeconomic/financialcenterinChina,whichhassomemajorMNCssuchasSGM,Acer,Philips,etc.Theyarematuredcustomersoflogisticsservicesandlesspricesensitive.Ontheotherhand,togetthedealsfromthemusuallyneedstoinvolvehighlevelnegociationLargec

51、ompaniesinShanghaiandnearbyareasaremainlyJVsofautomobileandconsumerelectronicsindustry,whichhavehighproductvalueandlowerpricesensitivitySource:A.T.Kearneyfieldinterviewsandanalysis8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/23Demand SizeSichuan(Chengdu)Havethe3rdlargestdistributioncenterinChi

52、na,thelargestpopulation,andimportantheavyindustrybaseThelogisticsindustrytherehasalreadyattractedinterestofforeignlargeshipperslikeIkeaandinvestorsincludingHutchisonWhampoaLocatedinmountainareas,roadtransportinfrastructureisinconvenient,sohighlyrelyingonrailtransportChongqing2Agriculturalproducts,me

53、talproductsandmotorcycles,whichtotallyaccountforover80%oftheexportvolume,arealllow-valueproducts,pricesensitiveandhaveflatgrowthUnderdevelopedinfrastructure,esp.roadandrailtransportationhavelimitedforeigninvestmentsinthisregion.Cargoesusuallytransportedbybarges,whichisthecheapestmodeProvinceIn inlan

54、d China,the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river regionLogistics Demand Selected Provinces in Inland ChinaYunnan2DemandGrowthRemarksMostimportantexportindustryistobacco,whichhashighprofitmargin,highqualityrequirementforlogisticsservices,andnotverypricesensitiveExportsfo

55、rwood,woodenmaterialsandfurniture,whichaccountedforover30%ofexportvolumebefore,arelargelyreducedduetonewlyimposedgovernmentsanctiononcuttingtreesHighLowStrongWeakSource:A.T.KearneyfieldinterviewsandanalysisHubei,Yangtze River Region3Exportsarelow-valueproductsincludingtobacco,cotton,chemicalsandstee

56、lmaterialsManyimportsarematerialforJVs(e.g.CitreonandDongfengCummins),ofwhichdecisionsareusuallymadeoverseasMarketisveryfragmentedandshippersgenerallyhavesmallscale/volumeNowarehouses/pilingcenterswithmoderncontainerhandlingcapacityandadvancedITstructureareavailable,canbeapotentialdevelopmentarea38P

57、oint/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/24Growth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logisticsGrowth DriverImplicationTheChineseeconomyisexpectedtogrowatCAGR7%overthenextfiveyears.Increase

58、dinternationalanddomestictradewilldrivedemandforlogisticsservicesPublicpolicyandspendingsupportsimprovementsinChinaslogisticsinfrastructure,providingopportunitiesforfurtherexpansionoflogisticsserviceproviders.Capableforeignserviceprovidersarelimitedinbusinessscopebyregulation,andtheirfullentryafterW

59、TOwilldrivetheindustrytowardinternationalbestpracticesThereisincreasinginterestamongChina-basedenterprisesinoutsourcingforlogisticsservices.OverseasbusinessesareextendingtheirsupplychainsdeeperintoChinaThefastgrowingmarketinonlineB2BtransactionsprovidesanadditionalmarketsegmentforlogisticsservicesFa

60、vorable Growth Outlook forthe China Logistics Services IndustryFavorable Macro Economic OutlookPublic Policy and SpendingIncreasing Interest in Outsourcing for Logistics NeedsGrowing IT and E-Business1234Source:A.T.KearneyAnalysis8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/25The Chinese econo

61、my is expected to grow at CAGR 7%over the next five yearsSource:Chinainfobank,A.T.KearneyAnalysisProjection of Chinas GDP Growth and Structure(RMB,Bn)nContinuousgrowthinGDPindicatesarobustandfastgrowingmacroeconomy,providingopportunitiesforsophisticatedlogisticsserviceprovidersnTheeconomicstructurew

62、illbecontinuouslyoptimizedandupgradedLogisticsisdirectlycorrelatedwiththemanufacturingindustry,thereforegrowthofsecondaryindustrieswillleadtothegrowthoflogisticsservicesImprovedservicesindustrieswillalsohaveapositiveimpactonthelogisticssectorImprovedsupportiveservicessuchaslegal,accounting,etc.Impro

63、vedtelecommunicationcapabilitiesRemarksSecondary:7%Tertiary:9%CAGR(01-06)Total:7%Primary:3%13,3679,560Favorable Macro Economic Outlook18Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/26Demand for logistics services comes from both international and domestic tradeSource:HongKongTradeDevelopmentCou

64、ncilResearch;ChinainfobankDemand for Logistics ServicesMore International TradeMore Domestic TradenInternational tradeInternationaltradehassustainedtheglobaleconomicfluctuationandkeptfastgrowinginthepast5yearsItisprojectedtogrowataCAGRof7.5%,withtotaltradevaluereachingUS$680Bnin2005nExports Expected

65、torisebyanadditional2.4%peryearoverthefirstfiveyearsofWTOentryShareasworldexportsisprojectedtorisefromcurrent3.5%to7.3%in2005nImportsProjectedriseofUS$21.3BnafterWTOProjectedannualgrowthratewillbemarginallyfasterthanexportnDomestic TradeCAGRofretailsalesofconsumergoodsinthe“Ninth5Year”was11%Positive

66、outlookduetocontinuouslygrowingpurchasingpowernDevelopment of chain storesSalesrevenueofchainstorecorporationshasexperiencedoubledigitrisefrom1997MultinationalchainstoreshavebeenaggressivelyimprovingtheirpresenceinChinamarketnInter-city tradeCurrentlymorethan50%oftheforeignindustrialandretailfirmsdistributedtheirproductsinmorethan50citiesInter-citytradewillbefrequentafterWTOFavorable Macro Economic Outlook18Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/27The State Economic and Trade Commissi