CH09StocksandTheirValuation(财务管理,英文版)

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1、9-1Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.CHAPTER 9Stocks and Their ValuationnFeatures of common stocknDetermining common stock valuesnEfficient marketsnPreferred stock9-2Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nRepresents ownership.nOwnership implies control.nStockholders ele

2、ct directors.nDirectors elect management.nManagements goal:Maximize stock price.Facts about Common Stock9-3Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Social/Ethical QuestionShould management be equally concerned about employees,customers,suppliers,“the public,”or just the stockholders?In ent

3、erprise economy,work for stockholders subject to constraints(environmental,fair hiring,etc.)and competition.9-4Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nClassified stock has special provisions.nCould classify existing stock as founders shares,with voting rights but dividend restrictions.nN

4、ew shares might be called“Class A”shares,with voting restrictions but full dividend rights.Whats classified stock?How might classified stock be used?9-5Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.When is a stock sale an initial public offering(IPO)?A firm“goes public”through an IPO when the s

5、tock is first offered to the public.9-6Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Average Initial Returns on IPOs in Various CountriesMalaysia100%75%50%25%BrazilPortugalJapanSwedenUnited StatesCanada9-7Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nDividend growth modelnFree cash flow m

6、ethodnUsing the multiples of comparable firmsDifferent Approaches for Valuing Common Stock9-8Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.PDkDkDkDkssss01122331111.One whose dividends are expected togrow forever at a constant rate,g.Stock Value=PV of DividendsWhat is a constant growth stock?9-9

7、Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.For a Constant Growth StockD1=D0(1+g)1D2=D0(1+g)2Dt=Dt(1+g)tP0=.If g is constant,then:D0(1+g)ks-gD1ks-g9-10Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.t0tg1DD tttk1DPVD !P k,g If0 t0PVDP$0.25Years(t)09-11Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rig

8、hts reserved.What happens if g ks?nIf ks g and(2)g is expected to be constant forever.PDkggs01 requires ks9-12Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Assume beta=1.2,kRF=7%,and kM=12%.What is the required rate of return on the firms stock?ks=kRF+(kM kRF)bFirm =7%+(12%7%)(1.2)=13%.Use the

9、SML to calculate ks:9-13Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.D0 was$2.00 and g is a constant 6%.Find the expected dividends for the next 3 years,and their PVs.ks=13%.012.24722.3823g=6%1.87611.7599D0=2.001.650913%2.129-14Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.=Whats the stoc

10、ks market value?D0=2.00,ks=13%,g=6%.Constant growth model:P0=D1ks g 0.13 0.06$2.12$2.120.07$30.29.9-15Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nD1 will have been paid,so expected dividends are D2,D3,D4 and so on.Thus,Could also find P1 as follows:ks g 0.13 0.06 P1=What is the stocks market

11、 value one year from now,P1?D2$2.247=$32.10.P1=P0(1.06)=$32.10.9-16Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Find the expected dividend yield,capital gains yield,and total return during the first year.Dividend yld =Cap gains yld=Total return=7.0%+6.0%=13.0%.D1P0P1 P0P0$30.29$2.12 7.0%.$32.1

12、0$30.29$30.29=6.0%.9-17Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Rearrange model to rate of return form:.PDkgDPgs0110 to ksThen,ks=$2.12/$30.29+0.06=0.07+0.06=13%.9-18Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.P0=$15.38.What would P0 be if g=0?The dividend stream would be a perpetui

13、ty.2.002.002.00012313%.PMTk$2.000.139-19Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nCan no longer use constant growth model.nHowever,growth becomes constant after 3 years.If we have supernormal growth of 30%for 3 years,then a long-run constant g=6%,what is P0?k is still 13%.9-20Copyright 200

14、1 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Nonconstant growth followed by constantgrowth:02.3012.6473.04546.1161234ks=13%54.109 =P0g=30%g=30%g=30%g=6%D0=2.00 2.600 3.380 4.394 4.658.$66.54P34.658130 06 0.9-21Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.What is the expected dividend yield and capita

15、l gains yield at t=0?At t=4?Div.yield0=4.81%.Cap.gain0=13.00%4.81%=8.19%.$2.60$54.119-22Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nDuring nonconstant growth,D/P and capital gains yield are not constant,and capital gains yield is less than g.nAfter t=3,g=constant=6%=capital gains yield;k=13%

16、;so D/P=13%6%=7%.9-23Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.25.72Suppose g=0 for t=1 to 3,and then g is a constant 6%.What is P0?01.771.571.3920.991234ks=13%g=0%g=0%g=0%g=6%2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.12.P32.1200730.29.9-24Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.t=3:Now have constan

17、t growth with g=capital gains yield=6%and D/P=7%.$2.00$25.72What is D/P and capital gains yield at t=0 and at t=3?t=0:D1P0=7.78%.CGY=13%7.78%=5.22%.9-25Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.If g=-6%,would anyone buy the stock?If so,at what price?Firm still has earnings and still paysdiv

18、idends,so P0 0:PDkgD gkgss0101=$2.00(0.94)$1.880.13 (-0.06)0.19=$9.89.9-26Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.What is the annual D/P and capital gains yield?Capital gains yield=g=-6.0%,Dividend yield=13.0%(-6.0%)=19%.D/P and cap.gains yield are constant,with high dividend yield(19%)of

19、fsettingnegative capital gains yield.9-27Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Free Cash Flow MethodnThe free cash flow method suggests that the value of the entire firm equals the present value of the firms free cash flows(calculated on an after-tax basis).nRecall that the free cash fl

20、ow in any given year can be calculated as:NOPAT Net capital investment.9-28Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nOnce the value of the firm is estimated,an estimate of the stock price can be found as follows:lMV of common stock(market capitalization)=MV of firm MV of debt and preferred

21、 stock.lP=MV of common stock/#of shares.Using the Free Cash Flow Method9-29Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nFree cash flow method is often preferred to the dividend growth model-particularly for the large number of companies that dont pay a dividend,or for whom it is hard to forec

22、ast dividends.Issues Regarding the Free Cash Flow Method(More.)9-30Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.nSimilar to the dividend growth model,the free cash flow method generally assumes that at some point in time,the growth rate in free cash flow will become constant.nTerminal value re

23、presents the value of the firm at the point in which growth becomes constant.FCF Method Issues Continued9-31Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.416.942FCF estimates for the next 3 years are-$5,$10,and$20 million,after which the FCF is expected to grow at 6%.The overall firm cost of ca

24、pital is 10%.0-4.5458.26415.026398.1971234k=10%g=6%-5 10 2021.2021.200.04.*TV3 represents the terminal value of the firm,at t=3.530=*TV39-32Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.If the firm has$40 million in debt and has 10 million shares of stock,what is the price per share?Value of eq

25、uity=Total value Value of debt =$416.94$40 =$376.94 million.Price per share=Value of equity/#of shares =$376.94/10 =$37.69.9-33Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.n Analysts often use the following multiples to value stocks:lP/ElP/CFlP/SaleslP/Customern Example:Based on comparable fir

26、ms,estimate the appropriate P/E.Multiply this by expected earnings to back out an estimate of the stock price.Using the Multiples of Comparable Firms to Estimate Stock Price9-34Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.In equilibrium,stock prices are stable.There is no general tendency for

27、people to buy versus to sell.In equilibrium,expected returns mustequal required returns:What is market equilibrium?ks=D1/P0+g=ks=kRF+(kM kRF)b.9-35Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.ks=D1/P0+g=ks=kRF+(kM kRF)b.Expected returns are obtained by estimating dividends and expected capital

28、 gains(which can be found using any of the three common stock valuation approaches).Required returns are obtained from the CAPM.9-36Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.How is equilibrium established?If ks=+g ks,thenP0 is“too low”(a bargain).Buy orders sell orders;P0 bid up;D1/P0 falls

29、 untilD1/P0+g=ks=ks.D1P09-37Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Why do stock prices change?1.ki could change:ki=kRF+(kM kRF)bi.kRF=k*+IP.2.g could change due to economic or firm situation.P0=D1ki g9-38Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Whats the Efficient Market Hypoth

30、esis?EMH:Securities are normally in equilibrium and are“fairly priced.”One cannot“beat the market”except through good luck or better information.9-39Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.1.Weak-form EMH:Cant profit by looking at past trends.A recent decline is no reason to think stocks

31、will go up(or down)in the future.Evidence supports weak-form EMH,but“technical analysis”is still used.9-40Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.2.Semistrong-form EMH:All publicly available information is reflected in stock prices,so doesnt pay to pore over annual reports looking for und

32、ervalued stocks.Largely true,but superior analysts can still profit by finding and using new information.9-41Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.3.Strong-form EMH:All information,even inside information,is embedded in stock prices.Not true-insiders can gain by trading on the basis of

33、insider information,but thats illegal.9-42Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Markets are generally efficient because:1.15,000 or so trained analysts;MBAs,CFAs,Technical PhDs.2.Work for firms like Merrill,Morgan,Prudential,which have a lot of money.3.Have similar access to data.4.Thus

34、,news is reflected in P0 almost instantaneously.9-43Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Preferred StocknHybrid security.nSimilar to bonds in that preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends can be paid on common stock.nHowever,unlike interest pay

35、ments on bonds,companies can omit dividend payments on preferred stock without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy.9-44Copyright 2001 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.Whats the expected return of preferred stock with Vp=$50 and annual dividend=$5?%.0.1010.050$5$kk5$50$Vppp 9-45Copyright 2001

36、 by Harcourt,Inc.All rights reserved.n9、静夜四无邻，荒居旧业贫。、静夜四无邻，荒居旧业贫。23.3.2823.3.28Tuesday,March 28,2023n10、雨中黄叶树，灯下白头人。、雨中黄叶树，灯下白头人。9:52:409:52:409:523/28/2023 9:52:40 AMn11、以我独沈久，愧君相见频。、以我独沈久，愧君相见频。23.3.289:52:409:52Mar-2328-Mar-23n12、故人江海别，几度隔山川。、故人江海别，几度隔山川。9:52:409:52:409:52Tuesday,March 28,2023n13

37、、乍见翻疑梦，相悲各问年。、乍见翻疑梦，相悲各问年。23.3.2823.3.289:52:409:52:40March 28,2023n14、他乡生白发，旧国见青山。、他乡生白发，旧国见青山。2023年年3月月28日星期二日星期二上午上午9时时52分分40秒秒9:52:4023.3.28n15、比不了得就不比，得不到的就不要。、比不了得就不比，得不到的就不要。2023年年3月月上午上午9时时52分分23.3.289:52March 28,2023n16、行动出成果，工作出财富。、行动出成果，工作出财富。2023年年3月月28日星期二日星期二9时时52分分40秒秒9:52:4028 March

38、2023n17、做前，能够环视四周；做时，你只能或者最好沿着以脚为起点的射线向前。、做前，能够环视四周；做时，你只能或者最好沿着以脚为起点的射线向前。上午上午9时时52分分40秒秒上午上午9时时52分分9:52:4023.3.28n9、没有失败，只有暂时停止成功！。、没有失败，只有暂时停止成功！。23.3.2823.3.28Tuesday,March 28,2023n10、很多事情努力了未必有结果，但是不努力却什么改变也没有。、很多事情努力了未必有结果，但是不努力却什么改变也没有。9:52:409:52:409:523/28/2023 9:52:40 AMn11、成功就是日复一日那一点点小小努

39、力的积累。、成功就是日复一日那一点点小小努力的积累。23.3.289:52:409:52Mar-2328-Mar-23n12、世间成事，不求其绝对圆满，留一份不足，可得无限完美。、世间成事，不求其绝对圆满，留一份不足，可得无限完美。9:52:409:52:409:52Tuesday,March 28,2023n13、不知香积寺，数里入云峰。、不知香积寺，数里入云峰。23.3.2823.3.289:52:409:52:40March 28,2023n14、意志坚强的人能把世界放在手中像泥块一样任意揉捏。、意志坚强的人能把世界放在手中像泥块一样任意揉捏。2023年年3月月28日星期二日星期二上午上

40、午9时时52分分40秒秒9:52:4023.3.28n15、楚塞三湘接，荆门九派通。、楚塞三湘接，荆门九派通。2023年年3月月上午上午9时时52分分23.3.289:52March 28,2023n16、少年十五二十时，步行夺得胡马骑。、少年十五二十时，步行夺得胡马骑。2023年年3月月28日星期二日星期二9时时52分分40秒秒9:52:4028 March 2023n17、空山新雨后，天气晚来秋。、空山新雨后，天气晚来秋。上午上午9时时52分分40秒秒上午上午9时时52分分9:52:4023.3.28n9、杨柳散和风，青山澹吾虑。、杨柳散和风，青山澹吾虑。23.3.2823.3.28Tue

41、sday,March 28,2023n10、阅读一切好书如同和过去最杰出的人谈话。、阅读一切好书如同和过去最杰出的人谈话。9:52:409:52:409:523/28/2023 9:52:40 AMn11、越是没有本领的就越加自命不凡。、越是没有本领的就越加自命不凡。23.3.289:52:409:52Mar-2328-Mar-23n12、越是无能的人，越喜欢挑剔别人的错儿。、越是无能的人，越喜欢挑剔别人的错儿。9:52:409:52:409:52Tuesday,March 28,2023n13、知人者智，自知者明。胜人者有力，自胜者强。、知人者智，自知者明。胜人者有力，自胜者强。23.3.2

42、823.3.289:52:409:52:40March 28,2023n14、意志坚强的人能把世界放在手中像泥块一样任意揉捏。、意志坚强的人能把世界放在手中像泥块一样任意揉捏。2023年年3月月28日星期二日星期二上午上午9时时52分分40秒秒9:52:4023.3.28n15、最具挑战性的挑战莫过于提升自我。、最具挑战性的挑战莫过于提升自我。2023年年3月月上午上午9时时52分分23.3.289:52March 28,2023n16、业余生活要有意义，不要越轨。、业余生活要有意义，不要越轨。2023年年3月月28日星期二日星期二9时时52分分40秒秒9:52:4028 March 2023n17、一个人即使已登上顶峰，也仍要自强不息。、一个人即使已登上顶峰，也仍要自强不息。上午上午9时时52分分40秒秒上午上午9时时52分分9:52:4023.3.28MOMODA POWERPOINTLorem ipsum dolor sit amet,consectetur adipiscing elit.Fusce id urna blandit,eleifend nulla ac,fringilla purus.Nulla iaculis tempor felis ut cursus.感 谢 您 的 下 载 观 看感 谢 您 的 下 载 观 看专家告诉