chap1外汇与外汇汇率

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1、中国人民大学财政金融学院1.外汇与外汇汇率外汇与外汇汇率Foreign Exchange&Exchange Rate中国人民大学财政金融学院内容提要内容提要o 外汇和汇率基础外汇和汇率基础o 汇率决定与变动汇率决定与变动o 汇率变化的经济影响汇率变化的经济影响o 人民币汇率制度人民币汇率制度外汇和汇率基础外汇和汇率基础1.1.中国人民大学财政金融学院中国人民大学财政金融学院外汇（外汇（Foreign Exchange）o 动态概念：一国货币兑换成另一国货币的实动态概念：一国货币兑换成另一国货币的实践过程，用以清偿国际间的债权债务践过程，用以清偿国际间的债权债务o 静态概念：用于国际汇兑活动的支

2、付手段和静态概念：用于国际汇兑活动的支付手段和工具工具o 常见定义：外汇是以外币表示的，用于清偿常见定义：外汇是以外币表示的，用于清偿国际债权债务的一种支付手段国际债权债务的一种支付手段Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose5o Dynamic:the process to exchange a nations currency for another nations currencyo Static:the instrument used to finish the exchange activity外汇（外汇（Foreign Exchange）中国人民大学财政金融学

3、院外汇特征外汇特征o 外汇是以外币表示的资产，具有可偿性外汇是以外币表示的资产，具有可偿性n 外汇买卖是债权的转移外汇买卖是债权的转移n 外汇支付是完成国际间债权债务的清偿外汇支付是完成国际间债权债务的清偿o 普遍可接受性普遍可接受性n 在国际经济往来中被各国普遍地接受和使用在国际经济往来中被各国普遍地接受和使用o 可以自由兑换可以自由兑换n 能够自由地兑换成其他形式的或其他货币表示能够自由地兑换成其他形式的或其他货币表示的资产的资产Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose7o Foreign Exchange is the asset denominated in fo

4、reign currencyo Foreign Exchange must be convertible currencyo Foreign Exchange Foreign Currency外汇特征外汇特征外汇渊源外汇渊源o 跨国贸易活动要求不同国家货币之间相互交跨国贸易活动要求不同国家货币之间相互交换，以实现购买或支付行为换，以实现购买或支付行为最初的国际汇最初的国际汇兑，即外汇和外汇交易兑，即外汇和外汇交易o 在现代银行业的推动下，贸易商之间偶发的在现代银行业的推动下，贸易商之间偶发的零散的汇兑发展成为由银行中介的大批量日零散的汇兑发展成为由银行中介的大批量日常业务常业务方便迅捷的全球外

5、汇市场方便迅捷的全球外汇市场中国人民大学财政金融学院Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose9o The value of one currency relative to another currency as the number of units of one currency required to purchase one unit of the other currency.o Exchange rate is to measure the value of one currency relative to anothero The market price

6、for foreign exchange汇率（汇率（Foreign Exchange Rate）中国人民大学财政金融学院汇率（汇率（Foreign Exchange Rate）o 汇率标价方法汇率标价方法n Direct Quotation:US$100=RMB657.70n Indirect Quotation:RMB 100US$15.20n US Dollar Quotation:US$1=HK$7.7871 US$1=J83.14Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose11Market Quotes:Direct-Indirect Quoteso Direct q

7、uote is the home currency price of one unit of foreign currency(e.g.:rmb￥/$for china)o Indirect quote is the foreign currency price of one unit of home currency(e.g.:$/rmb￥for china)o Note that A Direct-Indirect Quotation is always linked to a specific country(in above example is china)主要间接标价货币主要间接标

8、价货币中国人民大学财政金融学院Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose13Market Quotes:American-European Termo American term is the other nations currency price of the American currency(e.g.:rmb￥/$)o European Term is the American currency price of the other nations currency(e.g.:$/rmb￥)o Note that A American-European Quotat

9、ion is always linked to US dollar汇率种类汇率种类o 基准汇率基准汇率(basic rate)n 对关键货币汇率对关键货币汇率n 官方制定或公布官方制定或公布o 套算汇率套算汇率(cross rate)n 根据基准汇率和外汇根据基准汇率和外汇市场行情计算得到市场行情计算得到o 买入价买入价(buying rate)和和卖出价卖出价(selling rate)n 买卖差价是银行经营买卖差价是银行经营费用和利润来源费用和利润来源n 差价大小由行情、供差价大小由行情、供求和经营策略决定求和经营策略决定o 中间价中间价(middle rate)n 买卖平均价买卖平均价n

10、 见于报刊、经济分析见于报刊、经济分析中国人民大学财政金融学院Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose15Exchange rate classificationo Buying rate(Bid rate),Selling rate(Ask rate)and middle rateo Spot rate and forward exchange rateo Basic rate and cross rateo Official rate and market rateo Fixed exchange rate and floating exchange rateo No

11、minal exchange rate and real exchange rateNEER REERSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose16Bid rate-Ask rateo The bid is the price the bank is willing to pay for the currency,e.g.,1.8176$/is the bid on the pound in terms of the dollaro The ask is what the bank is willing to sell the currency,e.g.1.8184$/,i

12、s the ask on the pound in terms of the dollarSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose17Bid-Ask Spread:Cost of Transactingo The bid-ask spread of a currency reflects,in general,the cost of transacting in that currencyo It is calculated as the difference(absolute value)between the ask and the bid o Example,1.8

13、184 1.8176=0.0008Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose18Bid-Ask Margin:Percent Cost of Transactingo The bid-ask spread can be converted into a percent to compare the cost of transacting among a number of currencies o The margin is calculated as the spread as a percent of the asko(Ask-Bid)/Ask*100o Example

14、,o (1.8184 1.8176)/1.8184*100=0.044%Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose19Cross-Rates:Unobserved Rateso A cross-rate is an unobserved rate that is calculated from two observed rateso For example,the spot rate for the U.S dollar-per currency for the British pound is 1.8180$/,and the spot rate for the U.S

15、dollar-per currency for the euro is 1.2145$/.What is the British pound price of the euro(/)?o Note that($/)/($/)=($/)*(/$)=/o In this example,1.2145/1.8180=0.6680/中国人民大学财政金融学院习题习题如果当天两个市场上的银行各自买进并如果当天两个市场上的银行各自买进并卖出了卖出了100万美元，计算两家银行的利润。万美元，计算两家银行的利润。中国人民大学财政金融学院习题习题根据外汇行情表根据外汇行情表1-1完成以下工作完成以下工作o 套算套

16、算GBP和和JPY的中间价的中间价o 套算套算JPY和和HKD的买入价和卖出价的买入价和卖出价o 套算套算GBP和和SFR的买入价和卖出价的买入价和卖出价汇率种类（续）汇率种类（续）o 即期汇率即期汇率(spot rate)n 两个工作日内办理交割两个工作日内办理交割o 远期汇率远期汇率(forward rate)n 约定未来某一时间实际交割约定未来某一时间实际交割n 以即期汇率为基础约定，二者之间通常有差价以即期汇率为基础约定，二者之间通常有差价n 外汇升贴水主要受利率差异、供求关系、预期外汇升贴水主要受利率差异、供求关系、预期等因素影响等因素影响中国人民大学财政金融学院中国人民大学财政金融

17、学院人民币外汇牌价人民币外汇牌价(ICBC 06-03-22)币种币种中间价中间价现汇买入价现汇买入价现钞买入价现钞买入价卖出价卖出价基准价基准价 美元美元(USD)803.06 801.45 795.03 804.67 803.06 港币港币(HKD)103.49 103.28 102.46 103.70 103.49 日元日元(JPY)6.8468 6.8194 6.6003 6.8742 6.8427 欧元欧元(EUR)970.98 967.10 936.02 974.86 970.93 英镑英镑(GBP)1402.62 1397.01 1352.13 1408.23-瑞士法郎瑞士法郎(

18、CHF)616.98 614.51 594.77 619.45-加拿大元加拿大元(CAD)689.20 686.44 664.39 691.96-澳大利亚元澳大利亚元(AUD)575.63 573.33 554.91 577.93-新加坡元新加坡元(SGD)496.05 494.07 478.19 498.03-丹麦克朗丹麦克朗(DKK)130.12 129.60 125.44 130.64-挪威克朗挪威克朗(NOK)122.13 121.64 117.73 122.62-瑞典克朗瑞典克朗(SEK)103.67 103.26 99.94 104.08-澳门元澳门元(MOP)100.31 100

19、.11 99.31 100.51-新西兰元新西兰元(NZD)499.10 497.10 481.13 501.10-韩元韩元(KRW)0.8272-0.7842 0.8702-中国人民大学财政金融学院人民币远期外汇牌价人民币远期外汇牌价ICBC期限期限RMB/US$1002005-03-22中间价中间价买入价买入价卖出价卖出价起息日起息日7天天827.32825.25829.3905-03-3020天天826.7824.64828.7705-04-121个月个月826.08824.02828.1505-04-253个月个月822.88820.83824.9405-06-236个月个月817.1

20、6815.12819.205-09-2312个月个月804.11800.89807.3206-03-23中国人民大学财政金融学院汇率种类（续）汇率种类（续）o 名义汇率名义汇率(Nominal Rate)n 官方公布或市场通行汇率官方公布或市场通行汇率o 实际汇率实际汇率(Real Rate)n 在名义汇率基础上剔除了通货膨胀因素在名义汇率基础上剔除了通货膨胀因素n 用于经济分析用于经济分析Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose26Real Exchange Rates:Nominal and Real variableso Nominal variables,such

21、 as an exchange rate,do not consider changes in prices over timeo Real variables,on the other hand,include price changeso A real exchange rate,therefore,accounts for relative price changesSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose27Real Exchange Rates:Nominal and Real exchange rateo Nominal exchange rate is a

22、bilateral exchange rate that is unadjusted for changes in the two nations price levelso A nominal exchange rate indicates the purchasing power of one nations currency over the currency of another nationo Real exchange rate is a bilateral exchange rate that has been adjusted for price changes that oc

23、curred in the two nationso Real exchange rate measures the purchasing power of domestic goods and services in exchange for foreign goods and services习题习题中国人民大学财政金融学院$/020.16.1075.127$/209.1BrBrEr汇率决定与变动汇率决定与变动1.2.中国人民大学财政金融学院中国人民大学财政金融学院金本位制度下金本位制度下o国际金本位制度特点国际金本位制度特点n 各国货币由黄金铸成，且铸币有重量和成色规各国货币由黄金铸成，

24、且铸币有重量和成色规定，有法定含金量定，有法定含金量n 辅币和银行券可按票面价值自由兑换为金币辅币和银行券可按票面价值自由兑换为金币n 金币可以自由熔化、自由铸造和自由输出入金币可以自由熔化、自由铸造和自由输出入n 黄金作为最终清偿手段，充当国际货币黄金作为最终清偿手段，充当国际货币铸币平价为汇率决定的基础铸币平价为汇率决定的基础o 黄金作为统一币材、统一的价值衡量标准，黄金作为统一币材、统一的价值衡量标准，对比各自含金量以确定货币比价对比各自含金量以确定货币比价o 1英镑金币的含金量是英镑金币的含金量是1美元金币含金量的美元金币含金量的4.8665倍，所以二者铸币平价为倍，所以二者铸币平价为

25、4.8665o 若只考虑货币价值而舍弃其他因素，则铸币若只考虑货币价值而舍弃其他因素，则铸币平价就是英镑与美元间的汇率平价就是英镑与美元间的汇率中国人民大学财政金融学院铸铸币币平平价价美美元元含含金金量量英英镑镑含含金金量量成成色色美美元元金金币币重重量量成成色色英英镑镑金金币币重重量量11中国人民大学财政金融学院$/美国黄金输出点美国黄金输出点4.8957英国黄金输入点英国黄金输入点 4.8665铸币平价铸币平价 t美国黄金输入点美国黄金输入点4.8373英国黄金输出点英国黄金输出点供求和黄金输送点影响汇率变动供求和黄金输送点影响汇率变动o 外汇市场供求外汇市场供求出口出口/资本流入资本流入

26、外汇供给外汇供给，对本币需求，对本币需求 进口进口/资本流出资本流出本币供给本币供给，对外汇需求，对外汇需求 o 黄金输送点黄金输送点金本位是固定汇率制度安排金本位是固定汇率制度安排o 货币的法定含金量一经确定不会轻易改动，货币的法定含金量一经确定不会轻易改动，因此作为汇率基础的铸币平价比较稳定因此作为汇率基础的铸币平价比较稳定o 外汇市场上，汇率以铸币平价为中心，因外外汇市场上，汇率以铸币平价为中心，因外汇供求关系的作用而上下波动汇供求关系的作用而上下波动o 由于黄金输送点的制约，外汇市场汇率波动由于黄金输送点的制约，外汇市场汇率波动被限制在一定范围内，从而现实的汇率水平被限制在一定范围内，

27、从而现实的汇率水平相对稳定相对稳定中国人民大学财政金融学院The Gold Standard(1)o Came into effect in the mid-1870s and lasted until 1914,when most of the major economies officially adopted a commodity-backed monetary ordero Nations unilaterally fixed the value of their currency relative to gold via a mint parity(铸币平价)o They also

28、 established convertibility,which is a ability to freely exchange a currency for a commodity or another currency at a given rate of exchangeo To maintain the mint parity,or the exchange value between gold and the national currency,a nation must condition its money stock on the level of its gold rese

29、rvesEconomic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose34The Gold Standard(2)o Free exchange of gold for paper moneyo Free trade in goldo Each nation pegs(ties)the value of its currency to gold unilaterallyo creates a par value（面值）for the currency(its price in terms of gold or mint parity)o pledges to maintain val

30、ue of currency in terms of goldo The exchange rate of two different currencies was determined by its individual mint parityEconomic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose35The Gold Standard(3)GoldAt Center of SystemUS Dollar20.6464.856$/poundUK Pound4.252Economic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose36Mint parity:pound

31、price per ounceMint parity:dollar price per ounceExchange rateThe Gold Standard(4)o Factors affect the movement of exchange rate：o demand and supply of the currencyo the cost of exporting(or importing)of gold,called the gold exporting(or importing)point（黄金输出或输入点）Economic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose3

32、7The Gold Standard(5):demand and supplyo The exchange rate will increase above the rate set by the mint parities if there are more demand for the currency than its supplyo The exchange rate will decrease below the rate set by the mint parities if there are less demand for the currency than its suppl

33、yEconomic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose38The Gold Standard(6):gold exporting(or importing)pointo Is the limit of changes of exchange rateo Is the break-even point when a debtor chooses to repay the foreign debt by use of foreign currency or goldo Is equal to:exchange rate set by the mint parity the co

34、st of（transportation+insurance+packaging+reminting）o Gold exporting point of one currency=gold importing point of another currencyEconomic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose39Positive and Negative Aspects of a Gold Standardo Positive aspects:o long-run stability of real economic output,prices and exchange

35、rateso it doesnt require a central banko Negative aspects:o Significant resource costso The amount is limitedEconomic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose40中国人民大学财政金融学院信用货币制度下信用货币制度下o 流通中的不兑换纸币逐渐与黄金脱钩流通中的不兑换纸币逐渐与黄金脱钩o 汇率是一种货币兑换另一种货币的比例，体汇率是一种货币兑换另一种货币的比例，体现货币对外兑换价值；货币对外价值由其对现货币对外兑换价值；货币对外价值由其对内价值决定，货币对内价值用购买

36、力来衡量内价值决定，货币对内价值用购买力来衡量o 无论固定汇率制还是浮动汇率制，汇率都已无论固定汇率制还是浮动汇率制，汇率都已失去了相对稳定的基础。市场汇率水平由外失去了相对稳定的基础。市场汇率水平由外汇供求决定，任何能影响外汇供求关系变化汇供求决定，任何能影响外汇供求关系变化的因素都会引起汇率变动的因素都会引起汇率变动Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose42The Demand for a Currencyo The demand for a currency is a derived demand o That is,the demand for the curr

37、ency is derived from the demand for the goods,services,and financial assets that the currency is used to purchaseo If,for example,foreign demand for German goods and services increases,the demand for the euro increasesSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose43The Demand Curve is Downward Slopingo If,for exam

38、ple,the euro depreciates,German goods,services,and financial assets become less expensive to foreign residents.Foreign residents will increase their quantity demanded of the euro to purchase more European goods,services,and financial assetso A demand curve was used to describe the relationship betwe

39、en the demand quantity for a currency and the change of FX rateo The downward slope of the demand curve shows the negative relationship between the exchange rate and the quantity demandedSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose44The Demand CurveDemand curveS($/)Quantity SaQaSbQbabSpot MarketDaniels and VanHo

40、ose45An Change in DemandAt A Certain FX Rateo Consider an increase in the demand for the euroo Suppose that investors desire euro-denominated financial assets relative to dollar-denominated financial assets because of a change in economic conditionso The demand for the euro rises as investors desire

41、 more euros to purchase greater amounts of European financial assetso That will cause the right shift of the demand curveSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose46An Increase in Demand for the EuroDemand curveS($/)Quantity S0Q0DQ1Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose47The Supply of a Currency:upward slope o The su

42、pply of a currency is also a derived demand,Consider the demand schedule of German consumers for the dollaroIf the dollar depreciates relative to the euro,US goods and assets are relatively cheaper than German goods and assets,hence,the demand increases,which results in an increase in the quantity d

43、emanded of dollarsoAs more dollars are purchased,the quantity of euros supplied in the foreign exchange market increaseso A supply curve was used to describe the relationship between the supply quantity of a currency and the change of FX rateo The upward slope of the supply curve shows the positive

44、relationship between the exchange rate and the quantity supplied in the marketSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose48The Supply of a CurrencySS($/)S2S1Q1Q2ABQuantityDollar depreciationSupply curve of euroSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose49A change in SupplyAT A Certain FX Rateo Consider:o An increase of Ger

45、man consumer for US goodso That will cause an increase of demand for US$o An increase of supply of Euroo A right shift of supply curveSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose50A change in SupplyAT A Certain FX RateSSQuantityS($/)S0Q0Q1Supply curveSpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose51The Equilibrium Exchange Rate

46、o The force of demand and supply determine the equilibrium(or market clearing)exchange rate o The equilibrium exchange rate is the rate at which the quantity of a currency demanded is equal to the quantity suppliedo This is the market clearing exchange rate because there is no extra surplus or short

47、age of the currencySpot MarketDaniels and VanHoose52EquilibriumSSeQeADQuantityS1S2Q2Q1Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose53FX Market InterventionSS($/)SeQeDQuantityDOd中国人民大学财政金融学院汇率变动因素汇率变动因素o 相对利率水平相对利率水平n 跨国资本流动跨国资本流动o 相对价格变动相对价格变动n 通货膨胀通货膨胀(PPP)n 汇率超调汇率超调(overshooting)n 经济实力经济实力n 贸易收支差额贸易收支差额o 财政货币政策

48、财政货币政策o 间接影响汇率间接影响汇率o 预期预期n 投机资本投机资本(Hot Money)o 其他因素其他因素n 政治影响政治影响n 心理影响心理影响通货膨胀与汇率通货膨胀与汇率o 各国间的通胀差异是货各国间的通胀差异是货币波动主要原因币波动主要原因o 任何影响价格总水平的任何影响价格总水平的事件都影响汇率变动事件都影响汇率变动n 生产成本生产成本n 能源价格能源价格n 政府管制政府管制n 货币扩张货币扩张n 中国人民大学财政金融学院S$D$/$购买力平价购买力平价o 长期里，相对价格走势是两国货币间汇率决长期里，相对价格走势是两国货币间汇率决定的根本定的根本o 认为汇率等于两国价格水平之

49、比。一国价格认为汇率等于两国价格水平之比。一国价格水平可以用水平可以用CPI衡衡量量o 由于汇率还要受价格水平以外的其他因素影由于汇率还要受价格水平以外的其他因素影响，且各国的代表性商品篮子彼此不同，所响，且各国的代表性商品篮子彼此不同，所以真实汇率水平可能长时间偏离购买力平价以真实汇率水平可能长时间偏离购买力平价中国人民大学财政金融学院Spot MarketDaniels and VanHoose57Purchasing Power Parityo Purchasing Power Parity:o A condition that states that if international

50、arbitrage is unhindered,the price of a good or service in one nation should be the same as the exchange-rate-adjusted price of the same good or service in another nationo Purchasing Power Parity means that:o Ignoring transportation costs,tax differentials,trade homogeneous goods and services should

51、have the same price in two countries after converting their prices into a common currencyo Purchasing Power Parity is often called the law of one price汇率超调汇率超调中国人民大学财政金融学院/$/$ttABCCBA经济实力经济实力中国人民大学财政金融学院贸易收支差额贸易收支差额o 持续的巨额贸易逆差（顺差）使外汇市场上本持续的巨额贸易逆差（顺差）使外汇市场上本币供给（对本币需求）增加，长期里本币必将币供给（对本币需求）增加，长期里本币必将贬值（

52、升值）贬值（升值）o 对一国商品服务需求的增加（减少）会引起该对一国商品服务需求的增加（减少）会引起该国货币升值（贬值）；对其他国家贸易品需求国货币升值（贬值）；对其他国家贸易品需求的变动也具有类似作用的变动也具有类似作用o 贸易品部门的劳动生产率相对于国外上升，可贸易品部门的劳动生产率相对于国外上升，可降低相对生产成本并提高竞争力，货币会升值降低相对生产成本并提高竞争力，货币会升值中国人民大学财政金融学院o 投资效率上升，吸引外国直接投资流入，进投资效率上升，吸引外国直接投资流入，进一步增大对该国货币的需求，使升值更加显一步增大对该国货币的需求，使升值更加显著著o 一国的国际贸易地位还受到许

53、多无法计算的一国的国际贸易地位还受到许多无法计算的因素影响，如偏好、产品质量和设计，以及因素影响，如偏好、产品质量和设计，以及售后服务等售后服务等中国人民大学财政金融学院小结小结o 关键是价格水平和利率相对于国外变动关键是价格水平和利率相对于国外变动n 各种经济事件和政府政策通过影响价格水平和各种经济事件和政府政策通过影响价格水平和利率，对汇率变动发挥作用利率，对汇率变动发挥作用o 多个影响汇率的因素可能同时变化，令汇率多个影响汇率的因素可能同时变化，令汇率变动问题更加复杂变动问题更加复杂o 贬值未必不利，升值未必有利贬值未必不利，升值未必有利o 自由浮动汇率可以令市场出清，调节国际收自由浮动

54、汇率可以令市场出清，调节国际收支平衡支平衡中国人民大学财政金融学院汇率变化的经济影响汇率变化的经济影响1.3.中国人民大学财政金融学院中国人民大学财政金融学院货币升值与贬值货币升值与贬值o 汇率变化表现为货币的升值与贬值，一种货汇率变化表现为货币的升值与贬值，一种货币升值的同时，必然有另一种货币在贬值币升值的同时，必然有另一种货币在贬值中国人民大学财政金融学院习题习题计算两种货币名义汇率和实际汇率的变动幅度，计算两种货币名义汇率和实际汇率的变动幅度，并解释存在差异的原因。并解释存在差异的原因。1999年年1月，巴西雷亚尔兑美元的汇率为月，巴西雷亚尔兑美元的汇率为1.209 Br/$，至，至20

55、00年年6月变为月变为1.800 Br/$。已知已知1999年年1月巴西月巴西CPI为为127.5，美国，美国CPI为为107.6；2000年年6月巴西月巴西CPI为为141.5，美国，美国CPI为为112.4。中国人民大学财政金融学院对贸易收支的影响对贸易收支的影响o 影响进出口数量影响进出口数量扩大出口扩大出口本币贬值本币贬值限制进口限制进口出口品外币价格下降出口品外币价格下降需求增加需求增加(或或)出口商利润增加出口商利润增加供给增加供给增加进口品本币价格上升进口品本币价格上升进口商利润减少进口商利润减少需求下降需求下降中国人民大学财政金融学院dx1，贸易收支改善，贸易收支改善dx=1，

56、dm0，改善，改善dm=0，不变，不变dx0且且|dx+dm|1时，改善时，改善o 改善贸易逆差的马歇尔勒纳条件：改善贸易逆差的马歇尔勒纳条件：dx+dm1中国人民大学财政金融学院o 外汇倾销外汇倾销n 占领海外市场的低价策略，意在扩大出口，增占领海外市场的低价策略，意在扩大出口，增加外汇收入，改善贸易差额加外汇收入，改善贸易差额n 特征：使本币对外贬值，且超过对内贬值程度特征：使本币对外贬值，且超过对内贬值程度n 制约因素制约因素o 69个月的收效期个月的收效期o 收效期内存在来自国内外的干扰收效期内存在来自国内外的干扰o J曲线效应曲线效应n 即使满足马即使满足马-勒条件，勒条件，现实中贬

57、值对贸易现实中贬值对贸易收支差额的正效应收支差额的正效应可能延迟可能延迟n 贸易逆差可能暂时贸易逆差可能暂时性扩大性扩大n 理论收效期限为理论收效期限为912个月个月中国人民大学财政金融学院O时间时间贸易差额贸易差额中国人民大学财政金融学院汇率影响贸易收支的约束条件汇率影响贸易收支的约束条件o 贸易对手国的相应产品进行价格调整贸易对手国的相应产品进行价格调整o 贸易竞争国货币显著贬值贸易竞争国货币显著贬值o 跨国公司内部交易往往不受汇率变动影响跨国公司内部交易往往不受汇率变动影响中国人民大学财政金融学院对资本流动的影响对资本流动的影响o 本币贬值本币贬值利于资本流入，不利于资本流出利于资本流入

58、，不利于资本流出 本币升值本币升值o 预期本币贬值预期本币贬值抛本币、抢外汇资本外逃抛本币、抢外汇资本外逃 预期本币升值预期本币升值抛外汇、抢本币资本流入抛外汇、抢本币资本流入o 影响资本流动汇率敏感性的其他因素影响资本流动汇率敏感性的其他因素n 资本管制程度资本管制程度n 投资期限投资期限n 安全性安全性中国人民大学财政金融学院对价格水平的影响对价格水平的影响o 对贸易品价格的影响对贸易品价格的影响n 本币贬值本币贬值进出口商品国内价格进出口商品国内价格物价上涨压力物价上涨压力o 对非贸易品价格的影响对非贸易品价格的影响n 潜在出口商品（价格敏感性产品）潜在出口商品（价格敏感性产品）n 潜在

59、进口替代品（价格敏感性产品）潜在进口替代品（价格敏感性产品）n 纯粹的非贸易品纯粹的非贸易品o 通货膨胀通货膨胀本币贬值本币贬值 更高的通货膨胀更高的通货膨胀进一步贬值进一步贬值人民币汇率制度人民币汇率制度 EXCHANGE RATE OF RMB1.4.中国人民大学财政金融学院人民币兑美元汇率走势人民币兑美元汇率走势中国人民大学财政金融学院1981 1994 20052011/3/6人民币汇率人民币汇率30年沿革年沿革o 汇率双轨制汇率双轨制n 公布牌价与贸易内部结算价并存公布牌价与贸易内部结算价并存(1981-1984)n 官方汇率与外汇调剂市场汇率并存官方汇率与外汇调剂市场汇率并存(19

60、85-1993)o 以市场为基础的、有管理的单一浮动汇率以市场为基础的、有管理的单一浮动汇率n 1994外汇管理体制改革外汇管理体制改革实行汇率并轨和银行实行汇率并轨和银行结售汇制，建立银行间外汇交易市场，改进汇率结售汇制，建立银行间外汇交易市场，改进汇率形成机制形成机制n 由国际收支状况形成的外汇市场供求关系是决定由国际收支状况形成的外汇市场供求关系是决定汇率的主要依据汇率的主要依据中国人民大学财政金融学院1981.1.1 1984.12.31o RMB exchange rate was used as an instrument in stimulating export and has

61、 no more relations with priceo RMB exchange rate was quoted publicly from the January 1st 1981 and was used in the settlement of no trade transactionso Another internal RMB exchange rate was used in the settlement of trade transactionsEconomic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose761985.1.1 1993.12.31o RMB in

62、ternal settlement price and public quotation was convergedo RMB exchange rate was adjusted gradually from US$1=RMB￥2.80,3.20,3.70,4.72,5.22,5.80o FX swap centers ware set up for foreign funded companieso An official setting quotation existed for domestic companieso Another market setting price exist

63、ed in swap centersEconomic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose771994.1.1 2005.7.21o Official setting price and market setting price ware convergedo An inter-bank FX market was set upo The managed floating FX rate system was introducedo FX retention and purchasing system was introducedo RMB was convertible u

64、nder current accounto The exchange rate between RMB and US$was set as the base rate,and the new exchange rate was set as US$1=RMB￥8.70o PBC was responsible in setting the daily base rates for financial institutionso Financial institutions ware delegated to set up its own rates for transactions of it

65、s client based on the official settling rate and within some margins,say 0.25%o The maximum bid-offer differential was set to 0.5%Economic SummitsDaniels and VanHoose78o 2005年起实行年起实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度n 以市场供求为基础的汇率浮动，发挥汇率的价以市场供求为基础的汇率浮动，发挥汇率的价格信号作用格信号作用n 根据

66、经常项目主要是贸易平衡状况动态调节汇根据经常项目主要是贸易平衡状况动态调节汇率浮动幅度，发挥率浮动幅度，发挥“有管理有管理”的优势的优势n 参考一篮子货币，即从一篮子货币的角度看汇参考一篮子货币，即从一篮子货币的角度看汇率，不片面地关注人民币与某个单一货币的双率，不片面地关注人民币与某个单一货币的双边汇率边汇率中国人民大学财政金融学院o 2010年年中国人民银行决定进一步推进人民币中国人民银行决定进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革，增强人民币汇率弹性汇率形成机制改革，增强人民币汇率弹性n 以市场供求为基础以市场供求为基础n 参考一篮子货币参考一篮子货币n 对主要货币日均波幅千分之五的管理浮动对主要货币日均波幅千分之五的管理浮动中国人民大学财政金融学院对人民币汇率的官方表述对人民币汇率的官方表述o 汇率制度改革要以我为主，有序推进汇率制度改革要以我为主，有序推进o 按照按照主动性、可控性、渐进性主动性、可控性、渐进性的原则，完善的原则，完善有管理的浮动汇率制度有管理的浮动汇率制度o 更大程度发挥市场供求作用，增强人民币汇更大程度发挥市场供求作用，增强人民币汇率弹性，保持其在率弹性，保持其在