用户友好型气候影响与风险评估情景

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1、Roger Street,技术指导中国适应气候变化项目风险评估研讨会中国适应气候变化项目风险评估研讨会Production of user-friendly climate scenarios for impact and risk assessments用户友好型气候影响与风险评估情景用户友好型气候影响与风险评估情景 Wednesday,03rd March 20102010年3月3日星期三Beijing,China中国北京Towards“User-friendly”Scenarios走近走近用户友好情景用户友好情景Understanding what is and will be avai

2、lable earlier presentations了解现在及将来可用信息了解现在及将来可用信息之前介绍之前介绍Understanding what is needed and can be delivered this presentation了解所需与可供了解所需与可供本次介绍本次介绍 Requirement for informed engagement involving the providers and the users of the climate scenarios要求供应商与气候情景用户保持知情参与要求供应商与气候情景用户保持知情参与Recognition that wh

3、at is needed is information to inform the assessments认识到需要为评估提供信息认识到需要为评估提供信息oTemporal(30-year,baseline)and spatial(what resolution?)scales o时间（时间（30-年，基点）与空间（分辨率）范围年，基点）与空间（分辨率）范围oAveraging periods(monthly,seasonal,other)?平均周期（月、季、其他）？平均周期（月、季、其他）？oVariables?变量？变量？Recognition that it is also about

4、accessibility(presentation)and utility(guidance)Predict,Optimise and Relax预测、优化与放松预测、优化与放松Focus is on the climate and projected change 聚焦气候与预期变化聚焦气候与预期变化Often assumes that we are adapted to“today”时常假定我们是在适应时常假定我们是在适应“今天今天”Follows a linear model:遵循线性模式气候预测遵循线性模式气候预测Focus is on getting the climate“rig

5、ht”uncertainty remains a barrier to decision making“彻底彻底明白明白”气候气候不确定因素会对决策构成障不确定因素会对决策构成障碍碍Tendency for decision and policy makers to hold off awaiting better climate information and there is a need to start over each time there is new projections 决策者与政策制定者有这样一种倾向，他们会延时决决策者与政策制定者有这样一种倾向，他们会延时决策以等待更佳

6、的气候信息，因此，每当有新的预期出现，就要从头开始。策以等待更佳的气候信息，因此，每当有新的预期出现，就要从头开始。Climate Projections气候预期Impacts影响Adaptation适应Assess,Adjust and Review评估、调整与回顾评估、调整与回顾Focus is on understanding the climate(and other)risks焦点在于认识气候（及其他）风险焦点在于认识气候（及其他）风险Assumes that“today”may need some further adaptation(benefits the day job)假定

7、假定“今天今天”就可能需要更进一步的适应就可能需要更进一步的适应（有益于当前工作）（有益于当前工作）Follows a recursive model 遵循递归模式遵循递归模式1.确定问题和目标确定问题和目标 2.确立决策标准确立决策标准 3.评估风险评估风险 4.识别可选方案识别可选方案 5.评估可选方案评估可选方案 6.决策决策 7.实施决策实施决策8.监控监控 Uncertainty and risk are made explicit and addressed and can be communicated明确不确定因素与风险，确保其得到相应关注并相互传达明确不确定因素与风险，确保其

8、得到相应关注并相互传达 Allows for“adjustments”as benefits and changes in risk are realised随着风险收益的实现与变化的发生，要允许出现随着风险收益的实现与变化的发生，要允许出现“调整调整”Different information needed需要获取多种信息需要获取多种信息Prior to using climate information need a clear understanding of the system of interest(programmes,policies,systems,infrastructur

9、e,etc.):在使用气候信息之前需对相关利益体系有一个清楚的了解（项目组、政策在使用气候信息之前需对相关利益体系有一个清楚的了解（项目组、政策、体制、基础设施等）、体制、基础设施等）oSensitivities,thresholds,nature of vulnerability and capacity to adapt 敏感性、准入门槛、脆弱性本质及适应能力敏感性、准入门槛、脆弱性本质及适应能力oOther risks and drivers of change need for socio-economic information 其他风险与变化驱动其他风险与变化驱动需要获取社会经济信

10、息需要获取社会经济信息oThe existing adaptation deficit historical observations and trends 现有适应的不足之处现有适应的不足之处历来评价与历史趋势历来评价与历史趋势This understanding will also help define the climate information needed to support the assessment这一了解同样有助于界定可用于支持评估的气候信息这一了解同样有助于界定可用于支持评估的气候信息Different information needed需要获取多种信息需要获取多种

11、信息There is not a single best practice approach to using climate scenarios使用气候情景的最优方法并不唯一使用气候情景的最优方法并不唯一o Need to understand how the scenarios can and cannot be used and consider how to exploit the scenarios for the intended purpose examples of good practice and inappropriate uses 有必要理解气候情景在何种情况下（不）可

12、用，有必要理解气候情景在何种情况下（不）可用，并考虑如何达到预期使用目的并考虑如何达到预期使用目的举例说明正反两种情形举例说明正反两种情形The level of detail needed depends on the intended use key findings,maps and graphs,data and analytical tools 预计使用目的决定细节层次需求预计使用目的决定细节层次需求关键性结论、地图与图表、数据与分析工具关键性结论、地图与图表、数据与分析工具Having different levels of detail can inform the use of

13、 the climate scenarios focus on periods/areas of particular interest从不同的细节层次可以看出气候情景的应用从不同的细节层次可以看出气候情景的应用关注特定的利益相关注特定的利益相关周期关周期/地域地域Key Findings 主要产出主要产出Provide clear statements of the projected changes based on the climate scenarios 基于气候情景，清楚表述预期变化Focus on climate variables or interests that are o

14、f particular interest(area,sector,or time)关注特定利益相关的气候变量或利益体（地域、领域或时间）Can introduce the uncertainty associated with different scenarios可介入与不同情景相连的不确定性因素Can be used for communication and further engagement可用于沟通交流与进一步接触Examples:例如：例如：Warmer and wetter winters,with hotter and drier summers冬季冬季变暖变湿；夏季变热变

15、干变暖变湿；夏季变热变干The summer mean daily maximum temperature is projected to increase from 4.8C to 8.4C,with a wider range of uncertainty of 1.2C to 10.6C.据预测，夏季日常最高温据预测，夏季日常最高温度将从上升到，如果考虑更多不度将从上升到，如果考虑更多不确定因素的话，这一数字可以到确定因素的话，这一数字可以到 There is a projected two-fold increase in the frequency of summer drought

16、 by the 2050s.据预测，据预测，2050年夏季干旱的发生年夏季干旱的发生频率会增长一倍。频率会增长一倍。Maps,Images and Tables 地图、图像与表格地图、图像与表格Provide a spatial image of the projected changes at a single time period understanding geographic areas of interest 提供预期变化在某单一时间段的空间提供预期变化在某单一时间段的空间图图了解利益相关的地理区域了解利益相关的地理区域Provide an image of the changes

17、 over time 提供历时变化图提供历时变化图Can be for climate variables or derived variables(growing degree days,drought indices,etc.)用于描述气候变量或衍生变量（度日用于描述气候变量或衍生变量（度日变长、干旱指数等）变长、干旱指数等）Can be used to identify areas or times of interest,as well as effective communications tools 用于识别相关地域或时间段，确定有用于识别相关地域或时间段，确定有效交流工具效交流工

18、具Need for Guidance and Case Studies需要提供指导与个案研究需要提供指导与个案研究A reference guide on the use of the climate scenarios 指导如何使用气候情景的参考册指导如何使用气候情景的参考册An exploration of their use,including sharing lessons learned如何探索气候情景的应用，包括共享学到的经验如何探索气候情景的应用，包括共享学到的经验An evolving resource based on experience gained and guidan

19、ce added to meet evolving needs and address new climate information 不断扩充的资源不断扩充的资源获取经验、加强指导以满足不断演进的需求、应对新的气候信息获取经验、加强指导以满足不断演进的需求、应对新的气候信息Focus on using the climate scenarios to support the assessment process one resource used along with others as part of the assessment process 致力于用气候情景支致力于用气候情景支持评估

20、进程持评估进程与其他资源一起成为评估进程的一部分与其他资源一起成为评估进程的一部分Case studies depicting how the climate scenarios have been used 个案研究个案研究描述气候情景如何应用描述气候情景如何应用Need for particular guidance that also identifies inappropriate uses 同时需要有能够指出不当使用方法的特殊指导同时需要有能够指出不当使用方法的特殊指导Accessibility 可及性可及性To meet a diverse user community满足不同客户

21、群体Need for online resource and hard copy 需要在线资源与硬拷贝User-Provider Engagement Throughout用户用户供应商全程参与供应商全程参与Informed engagement is critical to ensuring that climate scenarios are useable,fit-for-purpose,and that their use is based on sound science 知情参与对于保证气候情景的功效与合用来说十分重要，这些功知情参与对于保证气候情景的功效与合用来说十分重要，这些功

22、能的实现都基于对科学有一个良好把握能的实现都基于对科学有一个良好把握Needed as part of scenario development,presentation and use(guidance)气候情景的发展、演示与使用（指导）都需要这种参与气候情景的发展、演示与使用（指导）都需要这种参与Mechanisms that have shown to be useful:表明有效的机制：表明有效的机制：oUser-Provider Advisory Panel用户用户供应商顾问团供应商顾问团oCommunities of users specific needs and sharing

23、 experience 用户社区用户社区特殊需要、经验共享特殊需要、经验共享oWorkshops sharing knowledge and experience/training 研讨会研讨会知识、经验共享知识、经验共享/培训培训oOnline helpdesk and frequently asked questions在线帮助台与常见问题在线帮助台与常见问题oOnline users forum 在线用户论坛在线用户论坛1m0m4m3m2mMax water level rise:水位上涨最大值New barrier,retain Thames Barrier,raise defence

24、s新建堤坝、保持泰晤士水闸、加高防御工事Raise Defences加筑堤坝New barrier,raise defences新建堤坝、加高防御工事New barrage新堰坝Existing system现有系统Improve Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences改进泰晤士水闸，加高d/s防御工事Over-rotate Thames Barrier and restore interim defences过旋泰晤闸，重建临时工士水事Flood storage,improve Thames Barrier,raise u/s&d/s defences蓄洪

25、，改进泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s防御工事Flood storage,over rotate Thames Barrier,raise u/s&d/s defences蓄洪，过旋泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s防御工事Flood storage,restore interim defences蓄洪，重建临时防御工事Fit-for-Purpose now and in the future眼前合用与未来合用眼前合用与未来合用Move from time-defined to risk-defined assessments由实时评估到风险评估Opportunity to Input输入机会输

26、入机会Expressing your needs for Climate Scenarios说出您对气候情景的要求说出您对气候情景的要求The Exercises 练习练习First Exercise:练习一练习一Indicate your level of experience with using climate scenarios on the bar graph with a post-it note,including,if applicable,an example of for what purpose you have used them(communications,impa

27、cts or risk assessment,climate modelling,adaptation assessment,etc.)在带有在带有便笺的便笺的条线图上标明您使用气候情景的经验水平，如果可以，请举条线图上标明您使用气候情景的经验水平，如果可以，请举例说明您为实现何种目标而使用气候情景（交流、影响或风险评估、气候例说明您为实现何种目标而使用气候情景（交流、影响或风险评估、气候模型、适应评估等）模型、适应评估等）Second Exercise 练习二练习二Identify three characteristics of the climate scenarios that you

28、 believe are important to making them user friendly请说出三个您认为用户友好型气候情景应该具有的特点请说出三个您认为用户友好型气候情景应该具有的特点What type of support do you need to allow you to use the climate scenarios?identify 2-3 options or concerns that you would like addressed.使用气候情景，您需要何种类型的帮助使用气候情景，您需要何种类型的帮助列出列出2-3个可选项，个可选项，或您所关注的问题。或您所关注的问题。