How To Pick A Stock-

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1、How To Pick A Stock? 陈和兴By Tan Hoe Heng How do you decide whether to buy the stock of pany Aor pany B? Or be-tween investing your money in Singaporeor Malaysia? The two monly used approaches for suchdecisions are Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis.This article will introduce you to both app

2、roaches and theirprinciples.When technical analysis is mentioned， people oftenthink of analysts plotting price movements of stocks，drawing lines to find trends， support or resistance.Technical analysis is the art of deducing probablefuture trend from historical records of stock trading. Itis the stu

3、dy of the stock market itself rather than theexternal factors that influence the market. The mostfamiliar indicators used are the price and volume of astock.Advocates of technical analysis believe that informationis not immediately reflected in the market prices of stocks.For example， when a piece o

4、f good news about a pany isavailable， it is not immediately known to everyone but isslowly passed from one person to another. This processtakes time and an upward price trend develops for thatpany as more and more people hear the good news and wantto buy the stock and fewer and fewer people are will

5、ing tosell the stock. The stock price which has started to movein an uptrend will continue to do so until something happensto change the supply-demand balance. For the technicalanalyst， he does not need to know what the good news or anyother information that is affecting the stock price is; thechart

6、 will tell him whether the stock price is going to moveup or down. He does not need to know the fundamentals ofthe pany because if the price is going up， thefundamentals must be improving.On the other hand， fundamental analysis examines allrelevant factors affecting the stock price in order todeterm

7、ine an intrinsic value for that stock. If the marketprice is below the intrinsic value， then the stock isundervalued and should be bought. The factors to considerinclude balance sheet items， corporate management， businessprospects and earnings outlook. The fundamental analystcalculates financial rat

8、ios based on data available from thebalance sheet and ine statement of a pany. From theseratios， he deduces the financial strength and earnings trendof the pany. Then he will meet the panys managementto affirm his deductions， to understand the business and tolearn of any new development of the pany

9、and theindustry.A widely used tool in fundamental analysis is theprice-earnings ratio or PE ratio. It is calculated usingthe stock price divided by the earnings per share (EPS) of apany. As a general rule， a stock with a low PE ratio isconsidered cheap although there are difficulties in applyingthis

10、 principle. PE ratios of two panies can only bepared if the panies are similar. It is believed thatpanies in different industries deserve different PEratios. For example， Singapore Tele is believed todeserve a higher PE ratio than many other stocks because ofits position in the telemunication busine

11、ss. However，analysts have not yet agreed on what PE ratio each industryor pany deserves and there is no one way to determine theright PE ratio.Both approaches attempt to predict the future pricemovement of a stock. Fundamentalists study the cause ofmarket movement while technicians believe that the

12、effect isall that they need to know. Despite their differences， bothapproaches try to increase your probability of picking upthe right stock at a right price. However， these methodsonly increase your chances but do not guarantee pletesuccess. Some believe that fundamental analysis is good forpicking

13、 the right stock while technical analysis isappropriate to decide the right price or time to buy.For the professional investor， he has to take anotherstep of deciding the sequence of analysis. This will havean impact on how the investor divides his money amongdifferent countries and stocks. Basicall

14、y， the investordecides whether the market as a whole or the pany itselfis more important in determining stock prices. Both factorsdefinitely influence stock prices but the degree ofinfluence is the issue.The top-down approach or sometimes known as theEconomy-Industry-pany (EIC) model emphasises the

15、marketover the pany. It starts with the analysis of differenteconomies to determine which country could offer theinvestor better returns. In the selected economy， itsearches for industries that provide better prospects and itpicks the best panies within these industries. Thetop-down approach offers

16、a systematic and structured way toanalyse stocks. It advocates that the economy and industryeffects are significant factors in determining the totalreturn for stocks.The bottom-up or stock picking approach believes infinding stocks that are undervalued which can providesuperior returns irrespective

17、of the market and industryfactors. The pany effect is the dominant factor indetermining stock return.There is no overwhelming evidence to suggest whichapproach offers superior returns to the investors. The mostimportant thing is that an investor is fortable with aparticular method， understands its s

18、trengths andlimitations， experiments with it， finds that it works forhim and abides by the method.(The writer is Investment Manager of Tat Lee AssetManagement Limited. This column has the support ofInvestment Management Association of Singapore and the StockExchangeof Singapore.)如何选择股票?应买A公司还是B公司的股票

19、？该把钱投资于新加坡还是马来西亚？本文将介绍两个常用来解答问题的方法：技术分析和根底分析。一提起技术分析，人们就会想到股票分析员画股价走势图找支持线和阻力线。根本上，这个方式是根据过去的记录预测未来表现。换句话说，技术分析研究股市本身，不是影响它的外在因素；而股价和成交量是它最常用的数据。技术分析的支持者认为，影响股价的消息没有立即反映在股价上。举例说，一家公司的好消息并不是每个人都同时知道的，而是从一人传到另一个，整个过程需要一段时间。越来越多人知道这好消息后会买进，而越来越少人愿意卖掉，这么一来使股价逐步升高。股价会因此继续上升直到供应与需求的平衡出现变化。但对技术分析员来说，他并不需要知

20、道那好消息是什么，走势图将告诉他股价会起还是落。他也不需知道公司的根底因素，对他来说，根底会随着股价上升而改善。他们相信历史会重演，可从过去的股价走势推测它将来的表现。另一方面，根底分析那么研究所有可能影响股价的因素，以确定股票的实际价值。如果市价低过实值，就值得买进。根底分析员研究资产与负债表的工程、企业管理层、业务展望和盈利潜能，再根据资产与负债表和损益表提供的数据计算而得的比例，判断这家公司的财力和盈利趋势。分析员也会与公司的管理层会面，了解它的业务以及有关公司和行业的最新开展。本益比是根底分析中最常用的比例，计算方式是股价除每股盈利。一般上，低本益比表示股票廉价。不过，这个准那么有时不

21、太好用。两家公司从事相同的业务，才能够比较它们的本益比；不同行业的公司，本益比通常是不一样的。举例说，以新电信在电信业的地位，它的本益比会较其他公司高。对于每个行业的本益比应是多少，分析员们到目前为止还没有定论，而且也没有计算正确本益比的方式。技术分析和根底分析都尝试预测股价今后的走势。它们的做法虽然不一样，但都尽可能帮助投资者以适宜的价格买入有增值潜能的股票。不过，它们都只能提高可能性，而不能保证。有些人认为，根底分析较适合用于选择股票，而技术分析那么适用于决定买入的时机和价格。对专业投资者来说，他们还必须决定分析的步骤。这将影响投资者把资金分配于不同市场和股票的决定。根本上，他们决定市场的整体走势还是公司本身对股价的影响比较大。这两个因素都会影响股价，但程度可能不同。从上至下的方法侧重于整体市场。它首先决定哪个市场能带来较高的回报，然后再选择具投资展望的行业和属于这一行的公司。这是个系统化的股票分析方式，认为经济和行业是决定股票回报的重要因素。而从下至上的选择股票方式，无视市场和行业因素，重点是选择市值低于估值的股票，认为公司本身是决定回报的最重要因素。哪个方式能带来较高的回报，并没任何研究证明。最重要的是投资者懂得所选择方式的优缺点，并尝试使用。作者是达利资金管理公司的投资经理。本栏是新加坡股票交易所和新加坡投资管理协会联办的公众教育方案。