iPhone的新运营模式(双语)

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1、译文登载于： 原文：The iPhones new businessmodel“Twice as fast. Half the price.”Thats the story about the new iPhone 3G that Apple is selling, and its a line that was echoed by Apple VPs and industry analysts in the Moscone West spin room after Steve Jobs keynote Monday.“The new price point is a very big dea

2、l,” said Tim Bajarin of Creative Strategies. “With that, and the 70 countries, Apple is now a world player on the mobile smartphone stage.”But its not that simple. There were a lot of financial details Jobs left out of his keynote that only emerged later in the day, in a 8-K form Apple (AAPL) filed

3、with the SEC and a long press release issued by AT&T (T).Apple alerted the SEC that although it had signed deals with 70 countries“Under the vast majority of these agreements, Apple will not receive follow-on revenue generating payments from carriers”AT&T, for its part, warned investors of“potential

4、 dilution to earnings per share (EPS) from this initiative in the $0.10 to $0.12 range this year and next.”What does it mean?It means the iPhone has a new business model.When the device was first introduced, Jobs was able to dictate some rather unusual terms. Customers had to pay full retail price f

5、or it (a practice almost unheard of in the mobile phone industry) and carriers had to share a sizable cut of their monthly revenue with the manufacturer (also virtually unprecedented).Now, the carriers are subsidizing the cost of the phone, making up for it in monthly charges, and they are no longer

6、 funneling a share of that monthly revenue to Apple. As Piper Jaffrays Gene Munster puts it: “Apple is basically playing by the rules that all other cell phone hardware manufacturers play by.”Pressed for specifics, Munster speculates that AT&T is paying Apple about $400 for the 8GB iPhone and keepin

7、g $199 of that. It probably pays Apple about $450 for the 16GB model, he says, and keeps $299. Update: in a note to clients Tuesday Munster came up with a slightly higher number. He now estimates that Apple is charging carriers, on average, $466 per iPhone. Toni Sacconaghi at Bernstein Research come

8、s in with a range that goes even higher; he believes Apple will sell the new iPhones to carriers for anywhere from $350 to $700 each.This is a big change. Gone is that nice revenue sharing deal where Apple socked it away as deferred income over the life of a 24-month contract a comfortable cushion a

9、gainst lean quarters in the companys future, should they ever arise.Gone too is the nice iPhone bonanza AT&T got upfront last summer by selling all those 8GB iPhones for $599 each (minus a small commission, perhaps $80, to Apple).But dont cry for AT&T. As its press release made clear, its going to m

10、ake up for that by raising the $20 monthly fee customers pay for unlimited data services to $30. That works out to $240 extra over the life of a two-year contract.“Half the price,” it turns out, actually costs customers $40 more.But most people look only at the purchase price when they buy cell phon

11、es, and at $199 for the 8GB model, the iPhone is going look a whole lot more affordable to a lot more people. Munster, for one, believes that Apple will more than make up in volume what its losing in revenue sharing.Munster had predicted that Apple would sell 12 million iPhones in 2008, beating its

12、own 10 million target by 20%. With the new price point, he says, 12 million “should be a lay-up.”And what about his famous prediction that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones in 2009 a number that he acknowledges is “way ahead of the Street”? Munster is not raising that target, but admits hes “increa

13、singly comfortable” with it.译文：iPhone的新运营模式作者：Philip Elmer-DeWitt“速度快一倍，价格低一半。”这就是苹果公司（Apple）新推出的3G版iPhone的广告语。史蒂夫乔布斯（Steve Jobs）周一发表主题演讲后，这句话也成了苹果公司众多副总裁以及业内分析人士在莫斯康尼会展中心的口头禅。创意策略公司（Creative Strategies）的蒂姆巴贾林（Tim Bajarin）说：“新手机的定价意义重大。按这样的价位，以及新手机发货的70个国家，苹果公司已经在全球智能手机市场中据有一席之地。”但事情没有那么简单。乔布斯的主题演讲漏

14、了很多财务细节。当天晚些时候，苹果公司向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的8-K报表以及AT&T举行的漫长的新闻发布会才披露了这些信息。苹果提醒SEC说，尽管公司已经与70个国家签了协议，但“从绝大多数协议来看，苹果不会从运营商取得后续的提成收入。”AT&T也警告投资者说，“苹果的新产品可能在今明两年令本公司每股收益下滑0.1到0.12美元。”这是什么意思？这说明iPhone已经采用了新的运营模式。当苹果公司刚推出iPhone时，乔布斯成功的让人们接受了一些不同寻常的条款：消费者买iPhone必须一次付清全款（这在手机市场上几乎是闻所未闻）；运营商还必须从月费收入中分出很可观的一部分给苹果公司

15、（这几乎也算史无前例）。现在，运营商自掏腰包补贴手机价格，然后从用户交纳的月费中将这笔钱补回来。它们不再与苹果公司分成。正如Piper Jaffray公司的吉尼曼斯特（Gene Munster）所说，“苹果公司只是接受了其它手机硬件制造商一直遵守的游戏规则。”在问到细节的时候，曼斯特估计AT&T现在为8G容量的iPhone手机向苹果公司支付的单价约为400美元，自己提留199美元，为16G容量的iPhone支付的单价约为450美元，自己提留299美元。（根据最新消息：曼斯特周二提交客户的报告中所做的估计要略高一些。现在他估计苹果公司把iPhone卖给运营商的平均价格为466美元。伯恩斯坦研究公

16、司的托尼萨克纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）的估计更高。他认为苹果公司向运营商供应新款iPhone的单价将为350至700美元。）这是个很大的转变。苹果公司不再与运营商签订为期两年的收入分享协议，失去了一个重要的收入来源。如果遭遇销售淡季，苹果公司本来可以用这笔收入弥补损失。AT&T的金矿也没了。去年夏天，该公司还以599美元的价格销售8G容量的iPhone（只需向苹果公司支付约80美元的佣金），赚了个盆满钵满。但别为AT&T伤心。该公司在新闻发布会上已经说明，为弥补损失，将把不限量数据服务的月费由20美元提高到30美元。这意味着在两年的合同服务期内，AT&T可以多收240美元。算起来，所谓的“价格低一半”其实要让用户多掏40美元。但大部分人只看买手机时的价格。199美元的售价让更多人买得起8G容量的iPhone。例如，曼斯特就认为苹果公司从销售量增长中得到的收益足以补偿收入分成的损失。他曾预计苹果将在2008年售出1,200万部iPhone手机，比公司预定的1,000万部的目标还要高20%。他说，按新的价格水平看，完成1,200万部的销售任务“应该是易如反掌”。他还曾预测2009年苹果将售出4,500万部iPhone。这个著名的预言又能否实现呢？曼斯特承认做到这一点“有点难度”。他现在还没有提高这个目标，但承认自己对实现这个目标“越来越有信心”。