外文翻译--机器人技术发展趋势

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1、附录1：机器人技术发展趋势作者:JimPinto, 圣地亚哥,美国中部.美国谈到机器人,就如同科幻一般。 但是,仅仅因为机器人在过去几十年里没有辜负自己的承诺,并不表示它们不会早到或者迟到。 事实上,一些先进技术导致的机器人的时代更近更小、更便宜、更实用、更具成本效益。肌肉,骨骼与大脑 任何机器人都有三方面: 肌肉：有效联系物理载荷以便机器人运动。 骨骼：机器人的物理结构与决定于其所从事的工作; 考虑到有效载荷这就决定了机器人的大小和重量。 大脑：机器人智能; 它可以独立思考和做什么; 需要多少人工互动。 由于机器人已经被描绘于科幻世界,许多人期望机器人的外表更人性化。其实机器人的外表决定于它

2、的功能和任务。不少机器,一点也不像人也明确地列为机器人。同样,有些像人的机器人也脱离不了机械结构或者玩具。 起初的机器人是又大，又只有很小的力。 老水流动力机器人被用于三D环境：阴暗、肮脏、危险。 由于第一产业的技术进步,已经完全改进了机器人的能力、业绩和战略利益。 例如,80年代机器人由水流驱动过渡成为电力驱动单位。 改进了性能和准确性。 工业机器人已在工作 在当今世界机器人数量已接近100万,有将近一半的在日本,仅有15%在美国。数十年前,90%的机器人用于汽车制造业,通常用于做大量重复的工作。 今天只有50%用于汽车厂,而另一半分布于工厂、实验室、仓库、发电厂、医院和其他许多行业。 机器

3、人用于产品装配、危险物品处理、油漆喷雾、切割、抛光、产品的检验。 那些被用于各式各样的任务的机器人数量,例如下水道清理,查找炸弹和操作日趋复杂的手术,在将来将持续上涨。 机器人智能 即使原始的智力，机器人已经被证明在生产力、效率和质量方面能够创造良好收益。除此之外,一些聪明机器人没有用于制造业; 他们被用于太空探险、 外科遥控，甚至宠物，就像索尼的Aibo机械狗。 从某种意义上说,一些其他应用表明机器人可能的用途，如果生产厂家认识到,工业机器人并不是要局限于一个方面,或者受限制昨日机械概念。 伴随着迅速增长的电力微处理器和人工智能技术,大大提高了机器人其潜在的弹性的自动化工具。新增加的智能机器

4、人的应用要求先进的智能。机器人技术融入各种辅助技术机器视觉、传感器(接触),高级技工及语音识别。 这一令人振奋的成果代表了新水平的工作应用,比以往任何时候都认为是实际的机器人。 实行综合的机器人视觉和触觉急剧地改变了新的产品和生产体系的速度和效率。机器人变得如此精确,以至于机器人可以应用于所有手工的场所不再是一个不可能的观点。半导体制造业是一个例子,高度一致的吞吐量和质量,不能靠手工或简单现机械就能实现。此外,通过使那些快速产品与传统硬质工具不相匹配部分的转换和革新，取得了显著成果。 增强竞争力 如上所述, 机器人的应用起源于汽车制造业。通用汽车已拥有四至五万的机器人，但仍然能够继续发展并运用

5、新方法。 为了能使机器人更加智能化，现在已运用了大量新的战略选择。 在过去的两三年里，汽车价格已经下降,为了不断创造利润，制造商降低生产和结构成本。这是唯一途径。汽车厂改建新模式,通常需要投入数以亿计美元以购买设备。 机器人制造技术的重点是通过减少资本投资的方式以增加适用性。新的遥控应用已被发现用在以专用设备自动作业的操作上了。它的灵活性能作业自动化发挥得更协调,并且有重大的成本优势。 机器人协助 其主要增长领域是智能机器人协助装置(IAD)。操作员熟练地操作着机器人，就好像是自己的手和脚变长,且更有力了。 这就是遥控技术，没有人或机器人可以替代，它是有助于改造人类环境产品的一个新版本，多方面

6、地帮助人类伙伴，包括动力供应、运动导向、线路跟踪以及程序自动化。 智能机器人协助装置运用遥控技术帮助人们以较少的压力，更多、大、好、快地操作零部件和有效载荷。利用人类机器界面,操作员和智能机器人协助装置携手合作以优化开放性、指导性和定位移动。传感器、计算机动力和操控运算法则将操作员的手令转译成人类提升能力装置。 遥控新格局 随着科技和由摩尔法带来的经济影响将继续变换计算机的能力和价格，我们应该期望更多创新,更多具成本效益的遥控结构，以及更多在传统服务重点之外的运用。 工业遥控设备最大的变化是,他们将形成一个更广泛的多种结构和机制。 在许多情况下,牵涉到自动装置系统的配置,不会立即被认为是机器人

7、。例如,自动操作半导体生产的遥控装置已远远不同于那些用在汽车制造业的遥控装置。我们会有那么一天：更多这类可编程加工的遥控设备种类会比现今有的传统遥控设备来得多。一个突发性转变即将来临；它的潜力是巨大的，因为不久后遥控设备不仅能够提升成本效益，也能产生前所未有的优势和操作应用。 远景展望 尽管机器人研究者希望仿效人类的智慧和外表,但是从未成功过。大多数机器人仍是无形的，也并非万能，也不能快速识别目标物体。两足直立行走的机器人微乎其微，比如本田P3就侧重于研究和示范样本。 较少结合工业机器人机器视觉系统,因此它的要求,而不是机器人机器视觉视野。 早期机器视觉领养付很高的价格,因为需要的技术知识民心

8、等制度。 例如,在八十年代中期,从辛辛那提市Milacron弹性制造系统的$900,000的机器视觉系统。 到1998年,平均价格已降至$40000,并且价格继续下降。 今天,从Cognex, Omron花$2,000就能买到简单的配有视觉套传感器的模式。减价反映了当今电脑成本的降低,和为特殊工作如侦察业等的视觉系统的重点开发。 机器人在世界各地的使用 工业机器人的销售已上升到创纪录水平,它对家务杂事如除草和地毯吸尘有着巨大的未开发的潜力。去年有3000个水下机器人、2300个爆破机器人和1600个外科手术机器人开始工作。 预计吸尘和除草的家用机器人将大幅度增加，从2000年的12500到20

9、04年末的500，000。iBOT Roomba吸尘器价格现在不到$200.00。近日炭疽恐慌,人们越来越多地使用机器人排架邮局的资料。事实上,美国邮政自动化有其巨大的潜力。去年，1000个机器人被安装来分类包裹。美国邮政总署估计,它有可能使用80,000机器人进行分类包裹。 环顾今日在我们身边的机器人:瓦斯自动泵、银行自动柜员机、自助式测试线，机器已经取代许多服务工作。 在今后的数十年，不难想象图像处理的发展进步、微处理器速度和人为模拟可能导致自动化成为世界上最无聊、低智力、低工资的工作。 Marshall Brain，HowStuffW的创办人，写了两篇有趣的关于未来机器人的论文，很值得一

10、读。 他觉得在今后40年内机器人将代替许多人类工作，那是很有可能的。根据Marshall Brain的预测,在他的论文机器人种族,人性化机器人将在2030年得到普及。他们将取代目前由人类从事的工作，如快餐服务清洁房间和零售服务。 除非找到办法来弥补这些失去的就业机会, Marshall Brain估计在2055年超过50%的美国人将由机器人代替而失业。 智能机器人将运用到每个角落全球的HAL和数据与传感机器正在快速地接近。 事实上,在某些方面智能机器人已开始承担起人类的工作。 由于处理能力倍增,以及记忆装置技术带来更小更精确的传感器和传动,机器人将以新颖、各式各样地精彩的应用，成为今后滋生代新

11、产品。 工业机器人 绝大多数机器人被应用在制造业等重复性任务比如给汽车喷漆以及简单装配。2000年全世界大约有10万名新的机器人,其中将近一半在日本，所以日本是最大的用户。 在2002年年底有近80万工业机器人,这个数字有可能在2004年末增加到近100万人。 在过去十年中机器人的运用增加了,而同时价格则一直下滑。今天,机器人制造有1-2年的偿还期限。在北美,机器人的价格相对于劳动力成本已降至26，如果考虑质量的提高则将低至12。 工业机器人的销售已达到纪录水平,在家务中，像清除草坪和清洁地毯方面，它有巨大的开发潜力 。许多新的应用机器人 随着机器人智能提高,以及传感器、传动和运行机制的日甄完

12、善,它的应用以大大增加了。现在有成千上万的水下机器人、破坏机器人、甚至还有用远程机器人来拆除手术。 数十个实验搜救机器人踏遍倒塌的世界贸易中心双塔楼搜索残骸。机器人专家小组在第一现场操作实验机器人，用来探寻瓦砾。在阿富汗战争中所使用的机器人是美军作战的工具。他们被送入洞穴、建筑物或其他地区的, 作为部队的前锋，以防止人员伤亡。 巨人步行机器人被用来伐木。它用六个关节移动，前进和后退、横走、斜走，还可以转身和跨越障碍物。 在柏克莱分校,一个名叫micromechanical的微型昆虫飞行机器人,它有非常自然地精确度的节奏拍打翅膀。他们的目标是建立一个又小、又灵活的装置可以探测火星表面和安全监察危

13、险化学品泄漏,例如,秘密侦查敌军,。 预计吸尘和除草的家庭机器人将大幅度上升。现今用机器人做家务是很实际的。一个低廉的房屋清洗机器人近日出台了。一个极其畅销的小型电动车吸尘器（Roomba）标价$199，它绕完整个地板,期间它所到之处都被打扫和除尘了。 Rodney Brooks? iRobot Roomba由马萨诸塞州的iRobot生产。iRobot是多家公司中的一员，他们联合计划在今后几年内推出一系列新的机器人。不久将推出新产品机器人，包括自动地板清洁器和实业工具，从而去从事无聊、肮脏、危险的工作,如检查油井。 当然,自治油井督察人员并不像一些有识之士所预言的那样会和机器仆人一样颤动。虽然

14、还是不太引人注目，但是人工智能和机器人正进入日常生活。 Rodney Brooks,人工智能实验室主任、美国iRobot公司的董事长,参与了这场十年变革。他的新书 Flesh & Machines 主要研究与生命有关的许多主题的机器人。Brooks创造他所谓的situated creatures的热情是本书的中心, situated creatures是我们后来当作我们的老师和同伴。Rodney Brooks麻省理工实验室挤满了机器人，从机械腿到具有人类特性的机器人，用人类一样的表情和动作，依靠人力机器人接口。Brooks认为要人们接受机器人的生活是有争议的。普通版机器的第一代已经被实验室遗弃

15、了。 Rodney Brooks对post-PC的未来有他的想法：传感器和微处理器应该装在汽车里面、办公室和家里，并通过各种言论和动作接口在上衣口袋进行资料检索,还有用于沟通、做各种各样的事情。 他坚持认为,智能时代,移动机械已经开始出现。你只需要知道哪里可以找到它们，或者在油井、医疗实验室、财政服务或者是建筑公司。 军事 & 国防应用 现在iRobot已经依美国防部的合同建造了一个机器人,其大小像手提箱那样，可攀爬楼梯,沟渠、可在水下三层生存。不同于携带炸弹的机器人,它有眼睛和耳朵,通过无线电连接传递所见所闻。这就是PackBot。它可被用来撇进一辆交通工具，用力把它扔进可能蛰伏着敌人的屋子

16、的窗户。 一般来讲，机器人系统吸引了国防部的兴趣,因为他们有远距离军事行为的能力，使危险任务对人的伤害最小。 国防先进研究计划机构(DARPA)是国防部的中心研究和发展组织。DARPA的分布式机器人程序,旨在与合格的公司合作来发展微型的，有生物灵感的机器人设计和为军事应用的机器人控制新方法。DARPA对微小型机器人特别感兴趣,因为它们的优势是可以制作单位成本较低，并且提供独特的使命。它们既可以单独又可以以团体的形式被用来实施和展开，来增强人类能力，执行危险的任务，以及完成从未想象过的任务。潜在的应用包括监视、侦察、调查途径、欺骗、武器运送和小规模启动。为了侦查布雷区、小型传感器则被安装在机器人

17、的跳脚上。小型机器人可送入市管道搜集情报。大规模使用机器人可以作为伪装。极小的微型机器人可注入锁孔用来开锁。 由于微型机器人类似小动物和昆虫、生理上赋予了灵感设计(跳、攀登、爬、草等),加上记忆装置的应和智能材料提供了新颖和独特的移动装置的可能性。记忆存储技术使在单独硅片上的机械综合和电子功能成为可能。先进的微电子包装采用多芯片模块和混合信号，它带来了发展的新思路,并把遥控形式和功能联合起来。 用于军事用途的机器人或者完全由人类控制、半自主控制，或者是自主运行。 为了能让微型机器人在不同的环境从事长时间工作,我们需要新方法以减少电力需求、控制能源利用与提供快速充电。 机器人的发展令人振奋的新领

18、域 典型的自动化技术在文本、PLCs、计算机、显示器、控制、传感器、阀门、传动、数据传输、无线通讯、网络等上要讲究知识和经验,这正是这些机器人和机器人系统发展的重点要求。 在经济不景气的时候,机器人技术一定会成为一个令人兴奋的有益事业发展的新舞台。附录2Robotics technology trendsBy : Jim Pinto,San Diego, CA.USAWhen it comes to robots, reality still lags science fiction. But, just because robots have not lived up to their pr

19、omise in past decades does not mean that they will not arrive sooner or later. Indeed, the confluence of several advanced technologies is bringing the age of robotics ever nearer-smaller, cheaper, more practical and cost-effective. Brawn, Bone & BrainThere are 3 aspects of any robot: Brawn：strength

20、relating to physical payload that a robot can move. Bone：the physical structure of a robot relative to the work it does; this determines the size and weight of the robot in relation to its physical payload. Brain：robotic intelligence; what it can think and do independently; how much manual interacti

21、on is required. Because of the way robots have been pictured in science fiction, many people expect robots to be human-like in appearance. But in fact what a robot looks like is more related to the tasks or functions it performs. A lot of machines that look nothing like humans can clearly be classif

22、ied as robots. And similarly, some human-looking robots are not much beyond mechanical mechanisms, or toys. Many early robots were big machines, with significant brawn and little else. Old hydraulically powered robots were relegated to tasks in the 3-D category：dull, dirty and dangerous. The technol

23、ogical advances since the first industry implementation have completely revised the capability, performance and strategic benefits of robots. For example, by the 1980s robots transitioned from being hydraulically powered to become electrically driven units. Accuracy and performance improved. Industr

24、ial robots already at workThe number of robots in the world today is approaching 1,000,000, with almost half that number in Japan and just 15% in the US. A couple of decades ago, 90% of robots were used in car manufacturing, typically on assembly lines doing a variety of repetitive tasks. Today only

25、 50% are in automobile plants, with the other half spread out among other factories, laboratories, warehouses, energy plants, hospitals, and many other industries. Robots are used for assembling products, handling dangerous materials, spray-painting, cutting and polishing, inspection of products. Th

26、e number of robots used in tasks as diverse as cleaning sewers, detecting bombs and performing intricate surgery is increasing steadily, and will continue to grow in coming years. Robot intelligenceEven with primitive intelligence, robots have demonstrated ability to generate good gains in factory p

27、roductivity, efficiency and quality. Beyond that, some of the smartest robots are not in manufacturing; they are used as space explorers, remotely operated surgeons and even pets ，like Sonys AIBO mechanical dog. In some ways, some of these other applications show what might be possible on production

28、 floors if manufacturers realize that industrial robots dont have to be bolted to the floor, or constrained by the limitations of yesterdays machinery concepts. With the rapidly increasing power of the microprocessor and artificial intelligence techniques, robots have dramatically increased their po

29、tential as flexible automation tools. The new surge of robotics is in applications demanding advanced intelligence. Robotic technology is converging with a wide variety of complementary technologies-machine vision, force sensing (touch), speech recognition and advanced mechanics. This results in exc

30、iting new levels of functionality for jobs that were never before considered practical for robots. The introduction of robots with integrated vision and touch dramatically changes the speed and efficiency of new production and delivery systems. Robots have become so accurate that they can be applied

31、 where manual operations are no longer a viable option. Semiconductor manufacturing is one example, where a consistent high level of throughput and quality cannot be achieved with humans and simple mechanization. In addition, significant gains are achieved through enabling rapid product changeover a

32、nd evolution that cant be matched with conventional hard tooling. Boosting Competitiveness As mentioned, robotic applications originated in the automotive industry. General Motors, with some 40-50,000 robots, continues to utilize and develop new approaches. The ability to bring more intelligence to

33、robots is now providing significant new strategic options. Automobile prices have actually declined over the last two to three years, so the only way that manufacturers can continue to generate profits is to cut structural and production costs. When plants are converted to new automobile models, hun

34、dreds of millions of dollars are typically put into the facility. The focus of robotic manufacturing technology is to minimize the capital investment by increasing flexibility. New robot applications are being found for operations that are already automated with dedicated equipment. Robot flexibilit

35、y allows those same automated operations to be performed more consistently, with inexpensive equipment and with significant cost advantages. Robotic AssistanceA key robotics growth arena is Intelligent Assist Devices (IAD).operators manipulate a robot as though it were a bionic extension of their ow

36、n limbs with increased reach and strength. This is robotics technology not replacements for humans or robots, but rather a new class of ergonomic assist products that helps human partners in a wide variety of ways, including power assist, motion guidance, line tracking and process automation. IAD us

37、e robotics technology to help production people to handle parts and payloads, more, heavier, better, faster, with less strain. Using a human-machine interface, the operator and IAD work in tandem to optimize lifting, guiding and positioning movements. Sensors, computer power and control algorithms t

38、ranslate the operators hand movements into super human lifting power. New robot configurationsAs the technology and economic implications of Moores law continue to shift computing power and price, we should expect more innovations, more cost-effective robot configurations, more applications beyond t

39、he traditional service emphasis. The biggest change in industrial robots is that they will evolve into a broader variety of structures and mechanisms. In many cases, configurations that evolve into new automation systems wont be immediately recognizable as robots. For example, robots that automate s

40、emiconductor manufacturing already look quite different from those used in automotive plants. We will see the day when there are more of these programmable tooling kinds of robots than all of the traditional robots that exist in the world today. There is an enormous sea change coming; the potential

41、is significant because soon robots will offer not only improved cost-effectiveness, but also advantages and operations that have never been possible before. Envisioning Vision Despite the wishes of robot researchers to emulate human appearance and intelligence, that simply hasnt happened. Most robot

42、s still cant see，versatile and rapid object recognition is still not quite attainable. And there are very few examples of bipedal, upright walking robots such as Honda P3, mostly used for research or sample demonstrations. A relatively small number of industrial robots are integrated with machine vi

43、sion systems，which is why its called machine vision rather than robot vision. The early machine vision adopters paid very high prices, because of the technical expertise needed to such systems. For example, in the mid-1980s, a flexible manufacturing system from Cincinnati Milacron included a $900,00

44、0 vision guidance system. By 1998 average prices had fallen to $40,000, and prices continued to decline. Today, simple pattern matching vision sensors can be purchased for under $2,000 from Cognex, Omron and others. The price reductions reflect todays reduced computing costs, and the focused develop

45、ment of vision systems for specific jobs such as inspection. Robots already in use everywhereSales of industrial robots have risen to record levels and they have huge, untapped potential for domestic chores like mowing the lawn and vacuuming the carpet. Last year 3,000 underwater robots, 2,300 demol

46、ition robots and 1,600 surgical robots were in operation. A big increase is predicted for domestic robots for vacuum cleaning and lawn mowing, increasing from 12,500 in 2000 to almost 500,000 by the end of 2004. IBot Roomba floor cleaning robot is now available at under $200.00. In the wake of recen

47、t anthrax scares, robots are increasingly used in postal sorting applications. Indeed, there is huge potential to mechanize the US postal service. Some 1,000 robots were installed last year to sort parcels and the US postal service has estimated that it has the potential to use up to 80,000 robots f

48、or sorting. Look around at the robots around us today: automated gas pumps, bank ATMs, self-service checkout lanes，machines that are already replacing many service jobs. Fast-forward another few decades. It doesnt require a great leap of faith to envision how advances in image processing, microproce

49、ssor speed and human-simulation could lead to the automation of most boring, low-intelligence, low-paying jobs. Marshall Brain (yes, thats his name) founder of HowStuffW has written a couple of interesting essays about robotics in the future, well worth reading. He feels that it is quite plausible t

50、hat over the next 40 years robots will displace most human jobs. According to Brains projections, in his essay Robotic Nation, humanoid robots will be widely available by 2030. They will replace jobs currently filled by people for work such as fast-food service, housecleaning and retail sales. Unles

51、s ways are found to compensate for these lost jobs, Brain estimates that more than 50% of Americans could be unemployed by 2055 replaced by robots.Intelligent robots will be everywhereThe world of HAL and Data, of sentient machines, is fast approaching. Indeed, in some ways it has already arrived as

52、 humanlike machines increasingly take on the work of humans. As processing power increases exponentially, and as MEMS technology brings smaller and smarter sensors and actuators, robots are the breeding ground for future-generation products with new, varied and exciting applications. Industrial robo

53、ts The vast majority of robots are used by the manufacturing industry, for repetitive tasks such as painting auto-bodies and simple assembly. Some 100,000 new robots were installed worldwide in 2000, nearly half of them in Japan, the biggest user. There were nearly 800,000 industrial robots in exist

54、ence at the end of 2002 and this is likely to rise to almost 1 million by the end of 2004. In the last decade the performance of robots has increased radically while at the same time prices have been plummeting. Today, manufacturing robots have a payback period as short as 1-2 years. In N. America,

55、the price of robots relative to labor costs have fallen to 26, and as low as 12 if quality improvements are taken into consideration. Sales of industrial robots have risen to record levels and there is huge, untapped potential for domestic chores like mowing lawns and vacuuming carpets. New robot ap

56、plications aboundAs robot intelligence increases, and as sensors, actuators and operating mechanisms become more sophisticated, other applications are now multiplying. There are now thousands of underwater robots, demolition robots and even robots used in long-distance surgery. Dozens of experimenta

57、l search-and-rescue robots scoured the wreckage of the World Trade Centers collapsed twin towers. Teams of robotics experts were at Ground Zero operating experimental robots to probe the rubble and locate bodies. During the war in Afghanistan, robots were being used by the US military as tools for c

58、ombat. They were sent into caves, buildings or other dark areas ahead of troops to help prevent casualties. After the recent anthrax scares, work has been ongoing to replace postal workers with robots. Indeed, there is huge potential to mechanize the U.S. postal service and some 1,000 robots were in

59、stalled last year to sort parcels. The U.S. postal service has estimated that it has the potential to use up to 80,000 robots for sorting work, although existing models are not suitable for sorting letters. A giant walking robot is used to harvests forests, moving on six articulated legs, advancing

60、forward and backward, sideways and diagonally. It can also turn in place and step over obstacles. At UC Berkeley, a tiny robot called Micromechanical Flying Insect has wings that flap with a rhythm and precision matched only by natural equivalents. The goal is to develop tiny, nimble devices that ca

61、n, for example, surreptitiously spy on enemy troops, explore the surface of Mars or safely monitor dangerous chemical spills. A big increase is predicted for domestic robots for vacuum cleaning and lawn mowing. Robots to do these chores are practical today. An inexpensive house-cleaning robot was re

62、cently introduced a little battery-powered vacuum cleaner that scurries around the floor, sweeping up dust and dirt as it travels. Called Roomba, it costs just $199 and, by all accounts, is selling very well. Rodney Brooks ?iRobotRoomba is made by Massachusetts-based iRobot, one of many companies pl

63、anning to launch a host of new robots over the next few years. New robotics products that will soon be introduced include autonomous floor cleaners and industrial tools built to do boring, dirty and dangerous work like inspecting oil wells. Of course, autonomous oil well inspectors arent as thrillin

64、g as the robotic servants that some visionaries have predicted. But robotics and artificial intelligence are working their way into everyday life, albeit in less dramatic ways. Rodney Brooks, Director of the MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and Chairman of iRobot Corporation, has been involved

65、 in this transformation for decades. His latest book Flesh & Machines explores many themes related to life with robots. The book centers on Brooks own passion for creating what he calls situated creatures which we can eventually regard as our teachers and companions. Brooks MIT A.I. Lab is filled with robotic machines, from mechanical legs to humanoids that use human-like expressions and gestures as intuitive human-robot interfaces ?something Brooks believes will be critical to people acc