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1、机器人技术发展趋势作者：Jim Pinto，加利福利亚州圣迭亚哥美国谈到机器人，现实仍落后于科幻小说。但是，仅仅因为机器人在过去的几十 年没有实现它们的承诺，并不意味着机器人的时代不会到来，或早或晚。事实上， 多种先进技术的影响已经使得机器人的时代变得更近更小、更便宜、更实用 和更具成本效益。肌肉、骨骼和大脑任何一个机器人都有三方面：肌肉有效联系有关物理荷载以便于机器人运动。骨骼一个机器人的物理结构取决于它所做的工作；它的尺寸大小和重 量则取决于它的物理荷载。大脑机器人智能；它能独立思考和做什么；需要多少人工互动。 由于机器人在科幻世界中所被描绘过的方式，很多人希望机器人在外型上与 人类相似。

2、但事实上，机器人的外形更多地取决于它所做的工作或具备的功能。 很多一点儿也不像人的机器也被清楚地归为机器人。同样，很多看起来像人的机 器却还是仅仅属于机械结构和玩具。很多早期的机器人是除了有很大力气而毫无其他功能的大型机器。老式的液 压动力机器人已经被用来执行 3-D 任务即平淡、肮脏和危险的任务。由于第一产 业技术的进步，完全彻底地改进了机器人的性能、业绩和战略利益。比如， 20 世纪80 年代，机器人开始从液压动力转换成为电动单位。精度和性能也提高了。 工业机器人已经在工作时至今日，全世界机器人的数量已经接近100 万，其中超过半数的机器人在 日本，而仅仅只有 15%在美国。几十年前， 9

3、0%的机器人是服务于汽车生产行业， 通常用于做大量重复的工作。现在，只有 50%的机器人用于汽车制造业，而另一 半分布于工厂、实验室、仓库、发电站、医院和其他的行业。机器人用于产品装配、危险物品处理、油漆喷雾、抛光、产品的检验。用于 清洗下水道，探测炸弹和执行复杂手术的各种任务的机器人数量正在稳步增加， 在未来几年内将继续增长。机器人智能即使是原始的智力，机器人已经被证明了在生产力、效率和质量方面都能够 创造良好的效益。除此之外，一些“最聪明的”机器人没有用于制造业；它们被 用于太空探险、外科手术遥控，甚至于宠物，比如索尼的AIBO电子狗。从某种 意义上来说，一些其他应用表明机器人可能的用途，

4、如果生产厂家认识到这点， 工业机器人并不是要局限于某一个方面，或者受限于昨日的机械概念。伴随着电力微处理器和人工智能技术的迅速增长，大大提高机器人其潜在的 弹性的自动化工具。新增加的智能机器人的应用要求先进的智能。机器人技术正 在融合各种互补技术 - 机器视觉，力传感（触摸），语音识别和高级技工。这一 令人振奋的成果代表了新水平的工作应用，比以往任何时候都认为是实际的机器 人。具有综合的视觉和触觉的机器人的引进，极大地改变了新的生产和输送系统 的速度和效率。机器人变得如此准确，以至于机器人可以应用于所有手工场所已 不再是一个不可能的观点。半导体制造业就是一个例子，高度一致的吞吐量和质 量，不能

5、靠手工或简单机械就能实现。此外，那些快速产品与传统硬质工具不相 匹配的部分的转换和革新已经取得了显著的成果。增强竞争力如上所述，机器人的应用起源于汽车制造业。美国通用汽车已经拥有四至五 万的机器人，仍然坚持继续发展并运用新方法。为了使机器人更加智能化，现在 已运用了大量新的战略选择。在过去的两三年里，汽车价格已经下降，为了不断 创造利润，制造商唯一的途径就是降低结构和生产成本。汽车厂想要改建新模式，通常需要投入数以亿计美元来购买设备。机器人制 造的技术重点是通过减少资本投入的方式以增加适用性。新的遥控技术已被发现 用在以专用设备自动作业的操作上了。它的灵活性能作业自动化发挥得更协调， 并且有很

6、大的成本优势。机器人协助其主要的增长领域是智能机器人协助装置（IAD）操作人员熟练地操作 着机器人，就好像是自己的手和脚变长了，并且更有力了。这就是遥控技术，没 有人和机器人可以代替，它是有助于改造人类环境产品的一个新版本，多方面的 帮助人类伙伴，包括动力供应、运动导向、线路跟踪以及程序自动化。智能机器人协助装置运用遥控技术帮助人们以较少的压力，更多、更大、更 好、更快地才做零部件和有效荷载。利用人类机器界面，操作员和智能机器人协 助装置携手合作以优化开放性、指导性和定位移动。传感器、计算机动力和操控 运算法则将操作员的手令转译成人类提升能力装置。遥控新格局随着科技和有摩尔定律带来的经济影响将

7、继续改变计算机的能力和价格，我 们应该期望更多创新，更多更具成本效益的遥控结构，以及更多在传统服务重点 之外的运用。工业遥控设备最大的变化是，它们将形成更广泛的多种结构和机制。在许多 情况下，牵涉到自动装置系统的配置，不会立即被认为是机器人。例如，自动操 作半导体生产的遥控装置已远远不同于那些用在汽车制造业的遥控装置。我们会有等到那么一天，更多这类可编程加工的遥控设备会比现今有的传统 遥控设备多得多。一个突发性转变即将来临，它的潜力是巨大的，因为不久后遥 控设备不仅能够提高成本效益，也能产生前所未有的优势和操作应用。 远景展望尽管机器人研究人员希望仿效人类的智慧和外表，但是从未成功过。大多数

8、机器人仍是无形的，也并非万能，也不能快速识别目标物体。两足直立行走的机 器人微乎其微，比如本田P3,主要是用于研究和样品展示。机器视觉系统集成的工业机器人的数量相对较少 - 这就是为什么它被称为 机器视觉，而不是机器人视觉。早期采用机器视觉价格很高，因为这样的技术需 要调整系统。例如，在 80 年代中期，从辛辛那提米拉克龙公司的柔性制造系统， 包括 90 万美元的视觉导引系统。到 1998 年的平均价格已经下降至 40,000 元， 且价格持续下降。今天，从Cognex，Omron花2000美元就能购买到简单匹配的视觉传感器系 统。降价反映了当今电脑成本的降低，和为特殊工作如侦察业等视觉系统的

9、重点 开发。机器人在世界各地的使用工业机器人的销售已经上升到创纪录的水平，他们拥有巨大的尚未开发的潜 力，家务，如修剪草坪，并用真空吸尘器清理地毯。去年有3000个水下机器人， 2300个拆卸机器人和1600个手术机器人开始工作。预计吸尘和除草机器人的数 量将大幅度增加，从 2000 年得 12500 到 2004 年末的 500000 个。现在 iBOT、 Roomba的价格也不到2000美元了。在最近的炭疽恐慌之后，机器人越来越多地用于邮政分拣应用。事实上，美 国的邮政自动化有其巨大的潜力。去年，有1000个机器人被安装用来分类包裹。 美国邮政总署估计，将来有可能使用 80000个机器人来

10、分类包裹。换股今天在我们身边的“机器人”：瓦斯自动泵、银行自动柜员机、自助式 测试线，机器已经取代了很多服务工作。、在今后的数十年，不难想象，图像处理的发展进步、微处理器加速和人为模 拟可能导致自动化成为世界上最无聊、低智力、低工资的工作。Marshall Brian， HowStuffWorks。 com 的创办人，写了两篇有趣的关于机器 人的论文，很值得一读。他觉得在今后四十年内机器人将代替许多人类工作，那 是很有可能的。根据他的预测，在他的论文“机器人种族”中，人性化机器人将 在 2030 年得到普及。他们将取代目前由人类从事的工作，如快餐服务、清洁房 间和零售服务。除非找到办法来弥补这

11、些失去的就业机会，否则他估计到 2055 年超过 50%的美国人将由机器人代替而失业。大量机器人的新应用随着机器人智能的提高，以及传感器、传动和运行机制的日趋完善，它的应 用也大大增加了。现在有成千上万的水下机器人、破坏机器人，甚至用于远程手 术。数十个实验搜救机器人搜寻了世贸中心双塔楼的残骸。机器人专家小组在第 一现场操作实验机器人，用来探测瓦砾以定位遇难者尸体。在阿富汗使用的机器 人是美军的作战工具。它们被送入洞穴、建筑物或其他地区，作为部队的先锋， 以防止人员伤亡。巨人步行机器人被用来伐木。它用六个关节来移动，前进和后退，横走和斜 走，还可以转身和跨越障碍物。在伯克莱分校，一个叫 mic

12、romechanical 的微型昆虫飞行机器人，它能非常 自然地精确地拍打翅膀。他们的目标是做一个又小又灵活的装置，例如，秘密侦 查敌军，可以探测火星表面和安全检查危险化学品泄漏。 机器人技术一个振奋人心的新领域自动化技术人员通常需要具备文本、PLCs、计算机、显示器、控制、传感器、 阀门、传动、数据传输、无线通讯、网络等方面的知识和经验。这些也正是机器 人及机器人技术发展的关键。在经济不景气的这个时候，机器人技术一定会成为 一定成为一个振奋人心且潜力巨大的新领域。Robotics technology trendsBy : Jim Pinto, San Diego, CA. USAWhen

13、it comes to robots, reality still lags science fiction. But, just because robots have not lived up to their promise in past decades does not mean that they will not arrive sooner or later. Indeed, the confluence of several advanced technologies is bringing the age of robotics ever nearer - smaller,

14、cheaper, more practical and cost-effectiveBrawn, Bone & BrainThere are 3 aspects of any robot: Brawn - strength relating to physical payload that a robot can move. Bone - the physical structure of a robot relative to the work it does; this determines the size and weight of the robot in relation to i

15、ts physical payload. Brain - robotic intelligence; what it can think and do independently; how much manual interaction is required.Because of the way robots have been pictured in science fiction, many people expect robots to be human-like in appearance. But in fact what a robot looks like is more re

16、lated to the tasks or functions it performs. A lot of machines that look nothing like humans can clearly be classified as robots. And similarly, some human-looking robots are not much beyond mechanical mechanisms, or toys.Many early robots were big machines, with significant brawn and little else. O

17、ld hydraulically powered robots were relegated to tasks in the 3-D category - dull, dirty and dangerous. The technological advances since the first industry implementation have completely revised the capability, performance and strategic benefits of robots. For example, by the 1980s robots transitio

18、ned from being hydraulically powered to become electrically driven units. Accuracy and performance improved.Industrial robots already at workThe number of robots in the world today is approaching 1,000,000, with almost half that number in Japan and just 15% in the US. A couple of decades ago, 90% of

19、 robots were used in car manufacturing, typically on assembly lines doing a variety of repetitive tasks. Today only 50% are in automobile plants, with the other half spread out among other factories, laboratories, warehouses, energy plants, hospitals, and many other industries.Robots are used for as

20、sembling products, handling dangerous materials, spray-painting, cutting and polishing, inspection of products. The number of robots used in tasks as diverse as cleaning sewers, detecting bombs and performing intricate surgery is increasing steadily, and will continue to grow in coming years.Robot i

21、ntelligenceEven with primitive intelligence, robots have demonstrated ability to generate good gains in factory productivity, efficiency and quality. Beyond that, some of the smartest robots are not in manufacturing; they are used as space explorers, remotely operated surgeons and even pets - like S

22、onys AIBO mechanical dog. In some ways, some of these other applications show what might be possible on production floors if manufacturers realize that industrial robots dont have to be bolted to the floor, or constrained by the limitations of yesterdays machinery concepts.With the rapidly increasin

23、g power of the microprocessor and artificial intelligence techniques, robots have dramatically increased their potential as flexible automation tools. The new surge of robotics is in applications demanding advanced intelligence. Robotic technology is converging with a wide variety of complementary t

24、echnologies- machine vision, force sensing (touch), speech recognition and advanced mechanics. This results in exciting new levels of functionality for jobs that were never before considered practical for robots.The introduction of robots with integrated vision and touch dramatically changes the spe

25、ed and efficiency of new production and delivery systems. Robots have become so accurate that they can be applied where manual operations are no longer a viable option. Semiconductor manufacturing is one example, where a consistent high level of throughput and quality cannot be achieved with humans

26、and simple mechanization.In addition, significant gains are achieved through enabling rapid product changeover and evolution that cant be matched with conventional hard tooling.Boosting CompetitivenessAs mentioned, robotic applications originated in the automotive industry. General Motors, with some

27、 40-50,000 robots, continues to utilize and develop new approaches. The ability to bring more intelligence to robots is now providing significant new strategic options. Automobile prices have actually declined over the last two to three years, so the only way that manufacturers can continue to gener

28、ate profits is to cut structural and production costs.When plants are converted to new automobile models, hundreds of millions of dollars are typically put into the facility. The focus of robotic manufacturing technology is to minimize the capital investment by increasing flexibility. New robot appl

29、ications are being found for operations that are already automated with dedicated equipment. Robot flexibility allows those same automated operations to be performed more consistently, with inexpensive equipment and with significant cost advantages.Robotic AssistanceA key robotics growth arena is In

30、telligent Assist Devices (IAD) - operators manipulate a robot as though it were a bionic extension of their own limbs with increased reach and strength. This is robotics technology - not replacements for humans or robots, but rather a new class of ergonomic assist products that helps human partners

31、in a wide variety of ways, including power assist, motion guidance, line tracking and process automation.IADs use robotics technology to help production people to handle parts and payloads- more, heavier, better, faster, with less strain. Using a human-machine interface, the operator and IAD work in

32、 tandem to optimize lifting, guiding and positioning movements. Sensors, computer power and control algorithms translate the operators hand movements into super human lifting power.New robot configurationsAs the technology and economic implications of Moores law continue to shift computing power and

33、 price, we should expect more innovations, more cost-effective robot configurations, more applications beyond the traditional “dumb-waiter” service emphasis.The biggest change in industrial robots is that they will evolve into a broader variety of structures and mechanisms. In many cases, configurat

34、ions that evolve into new automation systems wont be immediately recognizable as robots. For example, robots that automate semiconductor manufacturing already look quite different from those used in automotive plants.We will see the day when there are more of these programmable tooling kinds of robo

35、ts than all of the traditional robots that exist in the world today. There is an enormous sea change coming; the potential is significant because soon robots will offer not only improved cost-effectiveness, but also advantages and operations that have never been possible before.Envisioning VisionDes

36、pite the wishes of robot researchers to emulate human appearance and intelligence, that simply hasnt happened. Most robots still cant see - versatile and rapid object recognition is still not quite attainable. And there are very few examples of bipedal, upright walking robots such as Hondas P3, most

37、ly used for research or sample demonstrations.A relatively small number of industrial robots are integrated with machine vision systems - which is why its called machine vision rather than robot vision. The early machine vision adopters paid very high prices, because of the technical expertise neede

38、d to “tweak” such systems. For example, in the mid-1980s, a flexible manufacturing system from Cincinnati Milacron included a $900,000 vision guidance system. By 1998 average prices had fallen to $40,000, and prices continued to decline.Today, simple pattern matching vision sensors can be purchased

39、for under $2,000 from Cognex, Omron and others. The price reductions reflect todays reduced computing costs, and the focused development of vision systems for specific jobs such as inspection.Robots already in use everywhereSales of industrial robots have risen to record levels and they have huge, u

40、ntapped potential for domestic chores like mowing the lawn and vacuuming the carpet. Last year 3,000 underwater robots, 2,300 demolition robots and 1,600 surgical robots were in operation. A big increase is predicted for domestic robots for vacuum cleaning and lawn mowing, increasing from 12,500 in

41、2000 to almost 500,000 by the end of 2004. IBots Roomba floor cleaning robot is now available at under $200.00.In the wake of recent anthrax scares, robots are increasingly used in postal sorting applications. Indeed, there is huge potential to mechanize the US postal service. Some 1,000 robots were

42、 installed last year to sort parcels and the US postal service has estimated that it has the potential to use up to 80,000 robots for sorting.Look around at the “robots” around us today: automated gas pumps, bank ATMs, self-service checkout lanes - machines that are already replacing many service jo

43、bs.Fast-forward another few decades. It doesnt require a great leap of faith to envision how advances in image processing, microprocessor speed and human-simulation could lead to the automation of most boring, low-intelligence, low-paying jobs.Marshall Brain (yes, thats his name) founder of HowStuff

44、W has written a couple of interesting essays about robotics in the future, well worth reading. He feels that it is quite plausible that over the next 40 years robots will displace most human jobs. According to Brains projections, in his essay Robotic Nation, humanoid robots will be widely available

45、by 2030. They will replace jobs currently filled by people for work such as fast-food service, housecleaning and retail sales. Unless ways are found to compensate for these lost jobs, Brain estimates that more than 50% of Americans could be unemployed by 2055 - replaced by robots.New robot applicati

46、ons aboundAs robot intelligence increases, and as sensors, actuators and operating mechanisms become more sophisticated, other applications are now multiplying. There are now thousands of underwater robots, demolition robots and even robots used in long-distance surgery.Dozens of experimental search

47、-and-rescue robots scoured the wreckage of the World Trade Centers collapsed twin towers. Teams of robotics experts were at Ground Zero operating experimental robots to probe the rubble and locate bodies. During the war in Afghanistan, robots were being used by the US military as tools for combat. T

48、hey were sent into caves, buildings or other dark areas ahead of troops to help prevent casualties.A giant walking robot is used to harvests forests, moving on six articulated legs, advancing forward and backward, sideways and diagonally. It can also turn in place and step over obstacles.At UC Berke

49、ley, a tiny robot called Micromechanical Flying Insect has wings that flap with a rhythm and precision matched only by natural equivalents. The goal is to develop tiny, nimble devices that can, for example, surreptitiously spy on enemy troops, explore the surface of Mars or safely monitor dangerous

50、chemical spills.Robotics -an exciting new development arenaThe typical Automation techie has knowledge and experience in instruments, PLCs, computers, displays, controls, sensors, valves, actuators, data-transmission, wireless, networking, etc. These are exactly the key requirements for development of robots and robotic systems. During this time of economic recession, Robotics can surely be a new arena of exciting and rewarding business development.