技术经济英文版演示文稿C31

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1、CHAPTER 3 METHODS FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 3.1 Methods Without Time Value of Money 3.2 Present Value Analysis 3.3 Annual Value Analysis 3.4 Rate of Return Analysis 3.5 Growth Rate of Return Analysis 3.6 Profit to Investment Ratio 3.7 Minimum Rate of Return经济评价原理：利润最大化原理利润最大化原理 =B C BBenefit,CEconomic C

2、osts C：投入各种要素的机会成本，包括企业家：投入各种要素的机会成本，包括企业家的正常利润。的正常利润。超额利润。超额利润。计算计算 的公式如下：的公式如下：000111000项目不仅能达到正常利润水平，且有超额利润。项目不仅能达到正常利润水平，且有超额利润。项目仅能达到正常利润水平。项目仅能达到正常利润水平。项目不能达到正常利润水平（但并不意味着亏损）项目不能达到正常利润水平（但并不意味着亏损）项目不仅能达到正常利润水平，且有超额利润。项目不仅能达到正常利润水平，且有超额利润。项目仅能达到正常利润水平。项目仅能达到正常利润水平。项目不能达到正常利润水平（但并不意味着亏损）项目不能达到正常

3、利润水平（但并不意味着亏损）项目不仅能达到正常利润水平，且有超额利润。项目不仅能达到正常利润水平，且有超额利润。项目仅能达到正常利润水平。项目仅能达到正常利润水平。项目不能达到正常利润水平（但并不意味着亏损）项目不能达到正常利润水平（但并不意味着亏损）=B/C=B-C=(B C)/C公式类型单方案经济可行性方案比选结论一致可以结论一致不可以结论一致不可以=B-C=B/C=(B C)/C3.METHODS FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSISIn this Chapter,we will discuss various methods used for evaluating economi

4、c feasibility of projects.The foundation for these methods was laid in the previous Chapter when we discussed the importance of time value of money and its impact on the cash flow.In this Chapter,we will formalize those concepts through various methods and illustrate the applications of these method

5、s by numerous examples.In evaluating projects we will restrict our attention to projects involving mutually exclusive alternatives only.In simple terms,mutually exclusive alternatives are exclusive of each other.By selecting one alternative,we will automatically eliminate the other alternatives.A si

6、mple example would be buying a computer for personal use.If one is interested in buying only one computer for personal use,selection of any one computer from an array of alternatives will automatically eliminate all the other alternatives.For example,if one decides to use an IBM-compatible PC,then a

7、nother alternative,Apple computer,would be automatically eliminated.In the petroleum industry,in several instances one will deal with projects where only one alternative will have to be selected after evaluating several alternatives.Some examples are:*Selection of a contractor to conduct 3-D seismic

8、 survey for an exploration venture.*Selection of a drilling contractor to drill a well.*Selection of a service company to conduct log surveys.*Selection of a pumping unit to improve the production.*Evaluation of an in-fill drilling option to increase the production.*Selection of a compressor to incr

9、ease the gas production.In all the above projects,we can select only one of the several alternatives being considered.Once a particular alternative is selected,all the other alternatives are automatically eliminated from further consideration.Throughout this Chapter,we will use a minimum rate of ret

10、urn(MROR)to evaluate the attractiveness of various alternatives.The choice of MROR is very critical in evaluating the alternatives.In simple terms,the MROR is the minimum rate required by a corporation or an individual to make the project attractive.For example,if one borrows the money from a bank a

11、t an interest rate of 10%per year to invest in a drilling venture,the MROR is 10%.This is because,if the project does not yield at least 10%of return on the investment,the person will be a net loser.If the project earns 15%return,then after paying 10%interest to the bank,the person can make some mon

12、ey for himself or herself.If the project only earns 5%return,the person will have to pay from his or her own pocket to cover the interest payment to the bank.If the project earns 10%then there is no net gain or loss.Therefore,10%becomes the minimum acceptable rate.MROR is sometimes also called as th

13、e cost of capital.The computation of the cost of capital for the corporation is much more complex than the above example because of the varied sources of capital.We will delay the discussion on this subject until a later section of this Chapter.It is suffice to state that any alternative which does

14、not satisfy the minimum rate of return(MROR)criteria will be automatically rejected.Ideally,when evaluating mutually exclusive alternatives,we would like to have the economic criterion to possess the following characteristics:*It should be suitable for ranking various alternatives.*It should reflect

15、 the cost of the capital.*It should incorporate uncertainties in our assumptions.*It should reflect goals and objectives of the corporation.In practice,no single criterion would be able to satisfy these characteristics.Especially,although techniques are available to quantify the uncertainties in eco

16、nomic evaluation,for simplicity,we will assume that all the information regarding any given alternative is known with certainty.Regarding the last ideal characteristic of a criterion,we will assume that our goal will always be either to minimize cost or to maximize profit or benefit.We will not cons

17、ider other objectives in our analysis.Several economic criteria are available to evaluate mutually exclusive alternatives;each criterion having certain advantages and disadvantages.we will discuss techniques which do not account for time value of money.present the present value(PV)analysis.the annua

18、l value(AV)analysis.rate of return method(ROR),growth rate of return method(GROR),the profit to investment ratio method(PIR).(MROR)In the last section,(MROR).3.1 Methods Without Time Value of MoneyThe methods used without accounting for time value of money are simple to use.These methods do not requ

19、ire significant number of calculations.Although used extensively in the absence of calculators and computers,even by big corporations,at present,these methods,at best,provide a rule of thumb solution to a problem.In the alternative,these methods may be considered as primary screening tools to evalua

20、te the alternatives.In the following,we discuss some of these methods and explain the relative advantages and disadvantages of these methods.3.1.1 Return on Investment (ROI)This is one of the most commonly used methods in the oil industry.It is a ratio of total income during the life of the project

21、divided by the total investment during the same period.In mathematical form,we can write,As a rule of thumb,a value of ROI greater than 2 is considered a good investment.Since the method ignores the time value of money,it should only be used in conjunction with other methods which account for the ti

22、me value of money.investmenttotalincomecumulativetotalROI Example 3.1 The following cash flow profile is given for an exploration project.Calculate the return on investment(ROI)for the project.Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Cash Flow -20 -30 30 50 60 40 40 30 20(1000s of dollars)Solution total cumulative in

23、come=30+50+60+40+40+30+20 =270 total investment=-50Using Eq.3.l,Using rule of thumb,since 5.42.0,it is a good investment.4.550270ROIAnother method,which is also used,is called profit to investment ratio and is defined as,In other words,by simply subtracting one from the ROI,we can calculate the PIR.

24、As a rule of thumb,it is preferred that PIR be greater than 1.0.Eq.3.2 is slightly different than the PIR method we discuss in Section 3.6.In Section 3.6,we expand this definition to include the effect of time value of money.0.1ROIinvestmenttotalinvestmenttotal-incomecumulative(PIR)ratioinvestmentto

25、profitExample 3.2 The following two alternative projects are considered for a potential investment.Using ROI or PIR as a criterion,which alternative will be selected?Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Alternative I -100 -50 -20 100 90 80 70 60 60Alternative II -170 120 100 80 60 50 0 0 0SolutionAlternative I cum

26、ulative investment=100+50+20=170 cumulative income=100+90+80+70+60+60=460Using Eq.3.l.Using Eq.3.2,PIR=ROI-1=1.7 7.2170460ROIAlternative II cumulative investment=170.cumulative income=120+100+80+60+50=410Using Eq.3.l,Using Eq.3.2,PIR=ROI-l=l.4.Using the rule of thumb criteria,both the alternatives a

27、re feasible.Comparing the two alternatives,Alternative I is superior to Alternative II based on both criteria.4.2170410ROI3.1.2 Payback PeriodPayback period is one of the simplest techniques used in evaluating the feasibility of a project.It is defined as the time required to receive the initial inv

28、estment back.In the alternative,it is the time required for the cumulative net cash flow to become positive.It is a quantitative measure of turn around time after which the capital can be reinvested in other projects.It is a useful technique when the project requires relatively small investment with

29、 a quick payback;e.g.,well stimulation using acidizing.It is also useful when the investment is at risk due to political instability,or due to contractual agreement(合同合同)requiring a pull-out after a certain period.Payback period,however,has certain drawbacks.As explained before,it does not account f

30、or the time value of money.It also does not account for the profit generated after the payback period.As a result,the payback period may not be a valid criterion for projects which require significant lead time and may last over several years.It is not a criterion indicating economic efficiency;i.e.

31、,how efficiently the money is invested.Instead,it is a criterion of economic expediency;i.e.,how quickly the capital can be recovered.For a company interested in liquidity of capital,payback period provides a useful tool for knowing how quickly the invested capital is recovered.However,it does not t

32、ell us how good the investment is in terms of maximizing the benefit.The following examples illustrate the usefulness and drawbacks of a payback period technique.Example 3.3 Based on evaluation of an oil well,it was determined that after acidizing the well,the production of the well will increase fr

33、om 10 bbl/day to 15 bbl/day.If the price of oil is$20/bbl,and the cost of acidizing is$5,000,what is the payback period?SolutionIncremental oil production=15-10=5bbl/dayTherefore,$5,000 would be recovered in less than two months,$5,000/$3,000=1.67The payback period would be 1.67 months.000,3$bbl20$m

34、od30dbbl5month per revenue lIncrementaExample 3.5 An initiation of a waterflood project will require an initial investment of$2 million.It is expected that the project will generate additional revenues of$700,000 in the first year followed by a decline of 10%per year.Calculate the payback period(i)w

35、ithout discounting for the time value of money,and(ii)by discounting for the time value of money.Assume the discount rate to be 8%.SolutionThe following table shows the yearly cash flows and discounted cash flows for this problem.The sample calculations follow.Cash Cumulative Discounted Cumulative Y

36、ear Flow Cash Flow Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow 0 -2,000,000 -2,000,000 -2,000,000 -2,000,000 1 700,000 -1,300,000 648,148 -1,351,852 2 630,000 -670,000 540,123 -811,728 3 567,000 -103,000 450,103 -361,626 4 510,300 407,300 375,086 13,460 5 459,270 866,570 312,571 326,032Sample CalculationsTo calc

37、ulate cash flow in year 2,=700,000 x 0.9=$630,000The cash flow in other years are similarly calculated.For part(i),the cumulative cash flow becomes positive after 3.2 years.Therefore,the payback period is 3.2 years.For discounted payback period,cash flow in each year is discounted by using an intere

38、st rate of 8%.For example,in year 1,For year 2.Using the discounted cash flow values,the cumulative cash flow becomes positive after four years.Therefore,the discounted payback period is four years.Obviously,the discounted payback period is a strong function of the interest rate at which the cash fl

39、ow is discounted.For the same example,if we use a discount rate of 15%,the discounted payback period is 5.2 years instead of four years.148,648$.08)(1700,000flowcash discounted123,540$.08)(1630,000flowcash discounted2For situations where the cash flow investments and benefits are over a long term,th

40、e discounted payback period is a much more realistic measure of investment expediency than a simple payback period method.To summarize,the methods which do not account for time value of money are simple to use and may provide a primary screening tool to evaluate alternatives.However,these methods sh

41、ould only be used in conjunction with other methods to properly evaluate the projects feasibility.3.2 Present Value AnalysisPresent value(or worth)(PV)analysis evaluates projects based on the financial position of various alternatives at the present time.This technique accounts for the time value of

42、 money and provides a way of comparing various alternatives at the same frame of reference.If the project has a fixed output,the objective should be to minimize the present worth of costs.As discussed in Chapter 1,if the project has a fixed input,the objective should be to maximize the present worth

43、 of benefits,and if the project has neither fixed input or output,the objective should be to maximize the difference between the present worth of benefits and present worth of costs.Let us illustrate these three alternatives through various examples.In these illustrations,we will assume that the liv

44、es of the various alternatives are equal.公式推导公式推导0 1 2 3 4 5 n-1 nExample 3.6 A company is considering two alternatives to satisfy its photo copying requirements.The cost of each machine is shown below:(a)(b)Initial Cost$10,000$8,000Annual Cost$1,000$1,400The annual cost includes the replacement and

45、 maintenance costs.If both machines have a life of five years and the minimum rate of return(MROR)is 10%,which project should be selected?SolutionBoth alternatives will perform the same functions,i.e.,they offer the same output.Therefore,our objective should be to minimize the cost.For alternative(a

46、),For alternative(b),Comparing the present worth costs of the two alternatives,alternative(b)should be selected.791,13$1.011.011.01000,1$000,10$PV55costs307,13$1.011.011.01400,1$000,8$PV55costsExample 3.7 A proposal calls for an investment of$100,000 in drilling a new well.It is expected that the pr

47、oduction will generate a revenue of$30,000 per year for six years.At the end of six years,the production equipment can be sold for$10,000.Another proposal requires a$100,000 investment.It will generate$50,000 in the first year followed by 8%decline in each year.The life of the project will be six ye

48、ars.There is no salvage value associated with the proposal.If the minimum rate of return is 12%,which project should be selected?SolutionWe have a fixed amount of investment.Our objective should be to maximize our output or to maximize the present value of benefits received after the fixed investmen

49、t.For the first proposal,For the second proposal,Comparing the PVbenefits,for both the proposals,the second proposal should be selected.408,128$12.01000,1012.0112.0112.01000,30PV666benefits200,173$12.0108.01108.012.0000,50PV66benefitsExample 3.8 A company is considering two alternative computer mode

50、ls to satisfy its computer needs.Due to their differing powers,the benefits received by both the computers are different.Based on the work projections,the company thinks that either of the computers can be used to their fullest potential.If the minimum rate of return is 10%,which computer should the

51、 company select?Alternative Initial Cost Annual benefit Life,Years Salvage Value (a)$4,500$1,500 5$600 (b)$3,200$1,000 5$300SolutionThe salvage value indicates the price received if the computer is sold after five years.Since neither the costs,nor the benefits are fixed,we need to select an alternat

52、ive,which maximizes the difference between the benefits and costs.We can define the difference as,(3.3)where NPV is the net present value of the alternativeFor alternative(a),For alternative(b),Based on the comparison of the two alternatives,(a)should be selected.costsbenefitsPVPVNPV559,1$500,41.016

53、001.011.011.01500,1$NPV555777$10001.013001.012.011.01000,1$NPV555NPV的意义的意义 NPV0，项目不仅能达到基准收益率的水平，项目不仅能达到基准收益率的水平,而且有超额利润；而且有超额利润；NPV0，项目仅能达到基准收益率的水平；，项目仅能达到基准收益率的水平；NPV0，项目不仅能达到基准收益率的水平，项目不仅能达到基准收益率的水平加权平均值加权平均值其中：其中：1/(1+ic)t 权重，越靠近现在的年份，其权重，越靠近现在的年份，其NCF对对NPV的贡献越大，否则越的贡献越大，否则越小。小。NPV大小与基准点有关。大小与基准点

54、有关。0年和第一年相差年和第一年相差(1+ic)1 优缺点优缺点ncncciNCFiNCFiNCFNPV11111003.2.2 Bond EvaluationAnother interesting application of present value analysis is to determine the worth of bonds issued by corporations or governments.A bond is a type of loan where the debtor(债务人债务人)promises to pay a stated(一定的一定的)interest

55、 at specified intervals(时间间隔时间间隔)for a definite period and then to repay the principal at the maturity date（到期日）（到期日）of the bonds.Bonds are issued by corporations and governments to raise money.Individual bonds are issued in even denominations such as$1,000 or multiples of$1,000.The face value of th

56、e bond at the time of issuance is called the par value(票面价值票面价值).The bonds are issued for a fixed period of time,i.e.,5 years,10 years,etc.After that period,the principal will have to be paid back.During that period,the debtor will periodically pay an interest on the bond.The annual rate at which th

57、e interest is paid is called a coupon rate.Although semiannual(每半年的每半年的)payment of interest is the most common,other types of payments are also allowed.The bonds,although issued for a fixed period,can be traded in a financial market at a face value other than the par value.This affects the present v

58、alue of the bond.For example,a bond purchased at a coupon rate of 10%can be sold at a higher price than the par value in the future if in the future,the interest paid by new bonds is less than 10%.This is because,if someone wants a bond which pays 10%interest rate,they will have to pay a premium pri

59、ce(溢价溢价)to reflect that higher interest rate.The reverse is turn if in the future the new bonds are paying higher interest rates than 10%.Under these conditions,the bond may have to be sold at a discount price compared to the par value.The following examples illustrate the evaluation of bonds more c

60、learly.Example 3.9 A major oil company issued nominal 9%coupon rate bonds in$10,000 denominations payable in 10 years.Interest is paid on a semiannual basis.a.What is the interest earned every 6 months?b.If,after 5 years,the average bond is providing only 6%interest rate,what price can you sell that

61、 bond at so that the buyer will receive,effectively a 6%interest rate?c.What will be your effective present value of the bond if you sell it at that price?Solutiona.The interest is paid on a semiannual basis.Therefore,the nominal interest rate per six months,Therefore,the interest paid per six month

62、s,045.209.450$000,10045.b.$450 is the semiannual payment you will be receiving on this bond.This is a periodic payment.In addition,at the end of its life,you will receive the principal back.We could treat it as a salvage value.Schematically,the cash flow profile after 5 years is shown in Fig.3.2.1 2

63、 10P=?$10,000$450Figure 3.2:Cash Flow Profile for Example 3.9We need to calculate the present value of this cash flow profile such that the semiannual interest rate of(6/2)3%is received.This is the price at which you can sell the bond to the buyer.280,11$03.1000,1003.103.103.1450101010PVc.If the bon

64、d is sold to the buyer at$11,280,the seller buys the bond at$10,000,and the salvage value of the bond to the seller after 5 years is$ll,280.The effective interest the seller has earned has to be calculated by trial and error.We can show the cash profiles as(Fig.3.3),We can write the present value as

65、,if the interest is i,By trial and error,for i=5.5%,both sides are equal.Since this is semiannual interest rate,the nominal rate received by the seller is 11%per year.1010101280.11111450000,10iiii 1 2 10$10,000$11,280$450Figure 3.3:Cash Flow Profile of a seller$450$450Example 3.10 A bond issued by a

66、 company with a par value of$l,000 is currently sold in the market at$939.The coupon on the bond is 8.5%,interest to be paid semiannually.If you buy the bond on January l,1993 and the maturity date is October 1,1997,what is the interest rate you will earn on this bond？SolutionInterest paid semiannually,This is the periodic payment.The cash flow profile can be shown as in Fig.3.4.5.42$000,12085.$42.50$42.50 1 2 Apr-93 Oct-93 Oct-97Jan-93$939$1,000$42.50Figure 3.4:Cash Flow Profile for Example 3.1