SmallBusinessScoring小企业评分

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1、Small Business Scoring小企业评分小企业评分 September,20042004年年9月月Cheryl St John2Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.2Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Agenda议程议程uProject scopeu项目范围uSmall business pooled modelsu小企业集合模型uPreliminary results in Latin Americau在拉丁美洲的初步

2、成效uNext Stepsu后续步骤3Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.3Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Agenda议程议程uProject scopeu项目范围uSmall business pooled modelsu小企业集合模型uPreliminary results in Latin Americau在拉丁美洲的初步成效uNext Stepsu后续步骤4Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corpora

3、tion.All rights reserved.Small business in Latin America拉丁美洲的小企业拉丁美洲的小企业uEconomic growth and social development by being the leading source of employmentu作为最重要的就业渠道促进经济增长和社会发展uIn Colombia the small business sector employs 63%of work forceu在哥伦比亚小企业雇佣了63的劳动力uIn Mexico 78%of work forceu在墨西哥小企业雇佣了78的劳动力

4、uMajority of production is for internal consumptionu大部分产品供国内消费uColombia 25%internal production u哥伦比亚25国内产品uMexico 68%internal productionu墨西哥68国内产品uCredit availability plays a fundamental role for survival of the small businessu信用的可得性对小企业的生存起着基础性的作用uSmall businesses have limited access to funding and

5、 consequently to the newest technologyu小企业融资渠道受到限制从而导致最新技术的使用受到限制5Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Small business in Latin America拉丁美洲的小企业拉丁美洲的小企业uInvestigate deficiencies in small business creditu小企业信用的调查研究不足uNo business plan 没有商业计划uLegal constitution 法律章程uAccess to credit

6、得到信用的途径uSources of creditu信用的来源uOwn resources 自己的财力u reinvestment of revenues and capital from partnersu收入再投资及从股东处取得的资本uCredit from providers 从供应商处得到的信用u short term credit,high interest rates and guaranteeu短期信用，高利率和保证uFamily and friends 亲属和朋友uBank&Financial Institution Credit 银行和金融机构信用u small percen

7、tage of the small business have access to this type of credit;medium to long credit term.u一小部分的小企业能取得这种中期到长期的信用形式6Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Deficiencies in the small business lending 小企业借款缺乏小企业借款缺乏uIdentify improvements in the banking and lending industry to allow sma

8、ll businesses growth and developmentu认识银行业和贷款企业在允许小企业成长和发展中的进步uManage overall portfolio risk u控制总业务量风险uStreamline operations for increased cost efficienciesu优化操作以增进成本效率 uIncrease number of profitable relationshipsu增加可获利的关系 uIdentify predictive data elements to analyze the credit risku识别有预测性的数据要素来分析信

9、用风险7Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.How scoring technology can help the lenders?评分技术是怎样帮助贷款人的呢？评分技术是怎样帮助贷款人的呢？uReduces cost by increasing efficiency and speedu通过增加效率和速度来减少成本uMake consistent ranking of risk and objective decisions u建立一致的风险评分等级和客观决策uAccurate risk predictionu精

10、确的风险预测uMajority of risk identified at origination!u大多数的风险在产生时就会被识别出来！uCompetitive edgeu竞争优势 uFaster response timesu更快的反应时期uBetter risk assessmentu更好的风险估计8Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.8Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Agenda议程议程uProject scopeu项目范围

11、uSmall business pooled modelsu小企业集合模型uPreliminary results in Latin Americau在拉丁美洲的初步成效uNext Stepsu后续步骤9Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Fair Isaac expertise with financial institutionsFair Isaac 为金融机构提供专门技术为金融机构提供专门技术 10Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserve

12、d.Small business definition-United States小企业的定义美国小企业的定义美国uAnnual Sales of up to$5 million u年销售额最高达到5百万美元uCredit of up to$250,000u信用最高达到25万美元uTypes of Small Businesses:u小企业的类型：uSole Proprietorsu个体所有者uPartnershipsu合伙企业uCorporationsu公司11Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.The begi

13、nning of Small Business Scoring Service(SBSS)in the United States小企业评分机构在美国的起步小企业评分机构在美国的起步uFair Isaac partners with Robert Morris Associates(RMA)uFair Isaac 与Robert Morris Associates(RMA)成为合伙企业u17 banks each contribute 100 goods,100 bads,100 declinesu17家银行每一家都提供100家好的，100家坏的，100家信用下降的小企业的资料uPrecodi

14、ng sheets filled out by handu手工填写预先编好的表格uPaper credit bureau reportsu纸质的信用局报告uFair Isaac data entry staff creates electronic databaseuFair Isaac 的数据输入人员创建了电子数据库u1995-Fair Isaac SBSS releases the first empirically derived commercial scorecardsu1995年，Fair Issac 小企业评分机构发布了首批完全来自于实际数据的商业记分卡12Copyright 2

15、003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Small Business Pooled Models improvements小企业集合模型的进步小企业集合模型的进步uOver 250,000 small businesses contributed by 25 banksu25家银行提供的25万多家小企业信息uData extracted electronically from application processing and master billing file systems 100%availability of consumer

16、 bureau informationu从申请处理和主帐单文件系统中电子化提取的数据，消费信用局信息100可得uBusiness data provides increase in predictive poweru商业数据提高了预测力uApplication 申请uBusiness reports 商业报告uFinancial statements 财务报表u2001-Fair Isaac releases second generation of commercial scorecardsu2001年，Fair Isaac 发布了第二代商业记分卡uCurrently building th

17、e New Small Business Pooled Modelsu现在正在建立新的小企业集合模型13Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Small business scoring pooled models in Asia亚洲的小企业评分集合模型亚洲的小企业评分集合模型uPooled Models in Japanu日本的集合模型uOver 3,500 small businesses contributed by 13 banksu13家银行提供的3500多家小企业信息uData transferred f

18、rom application processing and master billing file systems and availability of consumer bureau informationu从申请处理和主帐单文件系统中传出的数据及消费信用局信息的可得性uBusiness data provides increase in predictive poweru商业数据提高了预测力uApplication 申请uBusiness reports 商业报告uFinancial statements 财务报表uCurrently building pooled models in

19、 Chinau现在正在中国建立集合模型 14Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.14Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Agenda议程议程uProject scopeu方案范围uFair Isaac experienceuFair Isaac的经验 uSmall business pooled modelsu小企业集合模型uPreliminary results in Latin Americau拉丁美洲的初步成效uNext Step

20、su后续步骤15Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Small business definition-Latin America小企业的定义拉丁美洲小企业的定义拉丁美洲COLOMBIA 哥伦比亚哥伦比亚uNumber of Employees up to 200u雇员人数最高达到200uAnnual Sales of up to$1 million u年销售额最高达到1百万美元uCredit of up to$200,000u信用最高达到20万美元uTypes of Small Businesses:u小企业的类

21、型：uSole Proprietors 个体经营者uPartnerships 合伙企业uCorporations 公司MEXICO 墨西哥墨西哥uNumber of Employees up to 100u雇员人数最高达到100uAnnual Sales of up to$500,000u年销售额最高达到50万美元uCredit of up to$200,000u信用最高达到20万美元uTypes of Small Businesses:u小企业的类型：uSole Proprietors 个体经营者uPartnerships 合伙企业uCorporations 公司There is no co

22、nsistent definition within lenders in Latin America.在拉丁美洲贷款人对小企业没有一致的定义在拉丁美洲贷款人对小企业没有一致的定义16Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Distribution by business activity经济活动分布经济活动分布COLOMBIA 哥伦比亚哥伦比亚MEXICO 墨西哥墨西哥Wholesale,批发业批发业 48%Construction,建筑业建筑业 9%Other,其它其它4%Transportation,运输业运输业

23、 15%Fin&Ins,金融保险业金融保险业 1%Services,服务业服务业 12%Restaurants,餐饮业餐饮业 3%Manufactures,制造业制造业 8%Wholesale,批发业批发业 30%Construction,建筑业建筑业16%Other,其它其它 7%Transportation,运输业运输业 8%Fin&Ins,金融保险业金融保险业 11%Services,服务业服务业 8%Restaurants,餐饮业餐饮业 2%Manufactures,制造业制造业 18%17Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights

24、 reserved.Acceptance and booked rates接受率和登记率接受率和登记率 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Colombia 哥伦比亚哥伦比亚Mexico 墨西哥墨西哥Acceptance Rate 接受率接受率 Booked Rate 登记率登记率18Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Distribution of delinquencies违约的分布违约的分布 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%Colombia 哥伦比亚哥伦比亚Mex

25、ico 墨西哥墨西哥One Cycle 一个周期一个周期Two Cycles 两个周期两个周期Written Off 冲销冲销19Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Application processing time处理申请的时间处理申请的时间D AYS天天数数024681012Colombia 哥伦比亚哥伦比亚Mexico 墨西哥墨西哥20Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.20Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac

26、Corporation.All rights reserved.Agenda议程议程uProject scopeu项目范围uFair Isaac experience uFair Isaac 的实践经验uSmall business pooled modelsu小企业集合模型uPreliminary results in Latin Americau在拉丁美洲的初步成效uNext Stepsu后续步骤21Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Pooled data development sampling集合数据发展

27、抽样集合数据发展抽样uA random representative portion of accounts with known payment behavior plus declined accountsu一部分随机的有代表性的已知支付行为的帐户加上信用下降的帐户uData provided by all institutions participating in the poolu所有参与这个集合的机构所提供的数据uPredictive information and performance informationu预测性的信息和表现信息22Copyright 2003 Fair Is

28、aac Corporation.All rights reserved.Data sources-Personal information about principals数据来源主要负责人的个人信息数据来源主要负责人的个人信息uApplicationu申请uFinancial informationu财务信息uConsumer credit reportsu消费者信用报告 23Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Value of data数据的价值数据的价值Small小小Large大大24Copyright 20

29、03 Fair Isaac Corporation.All rights reserved.Report for participants给参与者的报告给参与者的报告uLending practicesu贷款操作uList of valuable variable that could be use for future model development or strategiesu可能对未来模型的发展或战略有价值的变量的列表uSummary of individual portfolio performanceu个别资产组合表现的总结uValidation of questionnaire responsesu调查问卷回答的确认Small Business Scoring小企业评分小企业评分 Questions&Answers问题与回答问题与回答