基准和额外性PPT课件

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1、2022/8/28Slide 1基准和额外性Baselines and additionality中国CDM能力建设项目培训讲义Training Material Building Capacity for the CDM in China2022/8/28Slide 2基准线情景：The baseline scenario 基准线（基准线情景）：Baseline（baseline scenario )对没有CDM项目活动的情况下，对GHG排放趋势情况的预测Scenario forecasted to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissionst

2、hat would occur in the absence of the proposed CDM project.项目情景：Project scenario对有CDM项目活动的情况下，对GHG排放趋势情景的预测Scenario forecast to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissionsthat would occur with the proposed CDM project intervention.2022/8/28Slide 3基准线：BaselineF CDM项目活动的基准线是一种假设情况合理代表在不开展拟议项目活动的情况下的

3、温室气体人为源排放量。基准线应涵盖项目内附件A 所列所有气体部门和源类别的排放量The baseline for a CDM project activity is the scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity.A baseline shall cover emissions from all gases,secto

4、rs and source categories listed in Annex A within the project boundary.F 基准线可包含一种假设情况。这种假设情况预计未来人为源排放量因项目东道国的具体情况将超过目前水平The baseline may include a scenario where future anthropogenic emissions by sources are projected to rise above current levels,due to the specific circumstances of the host Party.C

5、DM modalities&procedures,paragraph 44&462022/8/28Slide 4基准线方法：Baseline approaches(MA48)a)现有实际排放量或历史排放量（如使用时）b)在考虑到投资障碍的情况下，一种代表有经济吸引力的技术方案所产生的排放量c)在过去五年同等社会经济环境和技术状况下，类似项目活动的平均排放量在同一类别位居前20%a)Existing actual or historical emissions,as applicable;b)Emissions from a technology that represents an econo

6、mically attractive course of action,taking into account barriers to investment;c)The average emissions of similar project activities undertaken in the previous five years,in similar social,economic,environmental and technological circumstances,and whose performance is among the top 20 per cent of th

7、eir category.基准线方法的选择应从下列各项中选择最适合该项目活动的方法并就其选择说明理由Select from among the following approaches the one deemed most appropriate for the project activity and justify the appropriateness of your choice:2022/8/28Slide 5建立基准线：Establishing a baselineF 以一个具体项目为基础F 依照所使用的已批准的或新的方法学之要求F 以透明的和保守的方式选择进行方法、假设条件、方

8、法学、数据源、关键因素及额外性，并考虑不确定性F 考虑与项目业别有关的国家或产亚政策和具体情况，如产亚改革行动、当地燃料供应、动力部门扩展计划以及其他经济条件F 如果小型CDM项目活动，应依简化的程序建立活动，以符合简化的准择要求FOn a project-specific basis;FIn accordance with provisions for the use of approved and new methodologies FIn a transparent and conservative manner manner regarding the choice of approa

9、ches,assumptions,methodologies,parameters,data sources,key factors and additionality,and taking into account uncertainty;FTaking into account relevant national and/or sector policies and circumstances,such as sector reform initiatives,local fuel availability,power sector expansion plans,and the econ

10、omic situation in the project sector.FIn the case of small-scale CDM project activities which meet the criteria specified in accordance with simplified procedures developed for such activities;2022/8/28Slide 6基准线与额外性：Baseline and additionalityYearGHG emissions t CO2-eq排放基准线 Baseline emissions存在项目情况下

11、的排放With project emissions减排量Emission reductions项目改善 Abatement project说明不是常态项目下的减排Explain why the emission reduction are not business as usual2022/8/28Slide 7额外性要求：Additionality requirementsF CDM项目的温室气体减排应与减缓气候变化有关的真实的、可测量的和长期的效益GHG emission reductions of CDM projects shall be real,measurable,and ass

12、ure long-term benefits related to the mitigation of climate changeF CDM 项目温室气体的减排放应是在没有经证明的项目活动的情况下所产生的额外的所有排放量的减少GHG emission reductions of CDM projects shall be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity.Kyoto Protocol,Article 12/5(c)F 清洁发展机制项目活动应具有额外性，即温室气

13、体人为源排放量减少到低于不开展清洁发展机制项目活动情况下会出现的水平A CDM project activity is additional if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases by sources are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity.CDM modalities&procedures,paragraph 43 2022/8/28Slide 8额外性评估：Additio

14、nality assessmenta)通过流程图或一系列问题逐渐缩小基准情景选择的范围b)定性或定量的评估不同可能的基准情景，并说明该基准情景的项目不可能实施c)定性或定量地评估所提议的项目实施障碍d)展示说明该项目不是通常惯例，例如发生的情况 全部可能情况的X%a)A flow-chart or series of questions that lead to a narrowing of potential baseline options;b)A qualitative or quantitative assessment of different potential options a

15、nd an indication of why the non-project option is more likely;c)A qualitative or quantitative assessment of one or more barriers facing the proposed project activity;d)(An indication that the project type is not common practice(e.g.occurs in less than 0：由于资本所值大于其成本，因而增加企业的价值；more economic attractive

16、F当净现值为负时，NPV 0：由于资本成本大于其所值，因而减少企业价值,less economic attractiveF净现值为零时，NPV=0：意味着投资人已经赚到与投资风险相应的适当回报。Balance attractive 2022/8/28Slide 22内部收益率：IRR当效益和成本的现值相等时的投资的回报率IRR is the discount rate r which makes the NPV of the investment exactly zero.0)1(0nttttrCBn00)1()1(tttntttrCrB2022/8/28Slide 23步骤2总结：Step

17、2 summaryF 如果NPV/IRR 太低，无论CERs的收入如何，项目将不会被考虑if NPV/IRR is too low,the project will not go ahead anyway,regardless of the CERs revenue or not;F 如果NPV/IRR太高，将难以解释投资障碍的问题。if NPV/IRR is too high,the project will have difficulties in explaining the investment barrier,as it may be argued that it would be

18、implemented anyway,regardless of the CERs revenue.G项目投资分析中涉及许多假设情况，DOE在审定此一问题时非常困难it is very difficult for the DOE to check the IRR as we dont know a project developers internal costing approach,the way benefits are evaluated,etc.there are a lot of assumptions in such calculations,as were talking ab

19、out future cash flows.G指定经营实体一般采取向有关管理部门或利害相关方了解NPV/IRR是否合理DNV bases its judgement on experiences with similar projects in the respective sector and country context and will ask authorities or other stakeholders whether the NPV/IRR analysis in the PDD is reasonable.G在PDD文件中应增加对投资障碍的数量分析Add a qualita

20、tive discussion about the NPV/IRR in your PDD to make the case of an investment barrier.2022/8/28Slide 24额外性判断范例-步骤3-Additionality testing example-Step 3F 壁垒评估Barrier assessment:F 投资壁垒Investment barriersF 技术壁垒Technological barriersF 因流行实务造成的壁垒Barriers due to prevailing practiceF 支持壁垒的充分证据Support bar

21、riers with sufficient evidenceF 证明最终的情景无法避免此壁垒（那就是基线!)Show that at least one of the scenarios would not be prevented by the barriers(that will be the baseline!)2022/8/28Slide 25额外性判断范例-步骤4-Additionality testing example-Step 4F 惯用实务分析Common practice analysis:F 其他活动Other activitiesF 类似发生情况Similar opti

22、ons occurringF 讨论说明Discuss!2022/8/28Slide 26步骤5 CDM 注册的影响：Step 5.Impact of CDM registrationF 解释提出的项目被批准并注册为CDM项目后，由实施该项目的获益将减缓经济或财务的障碍（第二步所论述的）或识别的其他障碍（第三步所论述的）Explain how the approval and registration of the project activity as a CDM activity,and the attendant benefits and incentives derived from t

23、he project activity,will alleviate the economic and financialhurdles(Step 2)or other identified barriers(Step 3)and thus enable the project activity to be undertaken.F 项目的获益可有不同的形式：The benefits and incentives can be of various types,such as:G温室气体的减排：Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission reductions;G

24、出售CERs的收入：The financial benefit of the revenue obtained by selling CERs,G吸引其他的新的项目：Attracting new players who are not exposed to the same barriers,or can accept a lower IRR(for instance because they have access to cheaper capital),G吸引其他的投资方：Attracting new players who bring the capacity to implement a new technology,andG减少风险：Reducing inflation/exchange rate risk affecting expected revenues and attractiveness for investors.