金融危机的国际经验及现实思考

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1、Worldwide Lessons from Financial Crises金融危机的国际经验及现实思考Vinod Thomas,Director-General&Senior Vice President Independent Evaluation Group,World Bank China Center for Economic Research Peking University February 19,2009I.The CrisisII.Policy ResponsesIII.Outlook2The sub-prime mortgage bubble in the US was

2、 the detonator of the current crisisThe extensive use of derivatives made the exposure to the mortgage crisis explosiveThe chain reaction was globalized because of:The links among the financial sectors in OECD and emerging countries The high dependence of international trade on US demand3 Deepening

3、recession since mid-2008 with multiple downwards revisions of growth Contagion from the developed to emerging and less developed economies Downward cycle through Trade and weakening demand Capital flow Remittance Commodity price Reinforcing expectation for global depression and deflation4GDP Growth5

4、Source:World Development Indicators 2008 and IMF World Economic Outlook Update,January 28,2009 6China:Growth practically ground to a halt in 2008 Q4-Annual growth rate in 2009 expected to fall to 6.7%from 9.0%in 2008 Exports plunged 17.5%year-on-year in January 2009the largest drop in almost 13 year

5、s Imports down 43%year-on-year,partly explained by adjustment in inventory.Singapores GDP fell at an annualized rate of 17%and South Koreas at 21%in Q4 2008Industrial production in the 12 months to December,2008 is down 21%in Japan,14%in Singapore,19%in South KoreaSource:IMF World Economic Outlook U

6、pdate,January 28,20097ChinaJordanMexicoIndiaSource:National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.Source:Institute for International Finance:“Capital Flows To Emerging Market Economies.”01/27/09.Exports(Volumes,Change%3 mma y/y)Private Net Capital Flows to Emerging Economies 8Source:World Development

7、Indicators 2008 and IMF World Economic Outlook Update,January 28,2009 9Source:World Development Indicators 2008Note:Crisis events are Argentina(1999-2002);Indonesia,Korea,Russia,Thailand,and Brazil(1997-1998);Mexico(1994)and Turkey(2000-2001)10Policy responseShort-termLong-termCountry levelSimilar r

8、esponses across countriesFiscal and monetary policies to stimulate aggregate demandDiverse responses depending on the initial conditionssaving rates,current account balanceSustainable growthpoverty,environment,educationGlobal responseCoordinated responsesbanking sector,financial system,liquidity,int

9、erest rates,open trade regimeInternational policy coordination mechanismssurveillance,environment,climate change A framework for assessment 11FiscalTrade PovertyEnvironmentConsumptionConsumptionInvestmentsInvestmentsLiquidity Liquidity Financial systemFinancial systemMarket confidenceMarket confiden

10、ce Sustainable Sustainable growthgrowthSocial stability Social stability harmonyharmonyTerms of tradeTerms of tradeValue chainValue chainCRISISFinancial12Often receive early attention U.S.Housing market:3 million foreclosures(2008)U.S.Banking sector:$1-$2 trillion net cost of bailout World stock mar

11、kets:Almost 50%loss in the total capitalization in 2008-$30 trillion of wealth disappearedNeeded measures:Adequate prudential regulations with the increasing sophistication and dynamism of global markets Capture the full risk implications of securitized mortgage loans and derivatives Sound developme

12、nt of the financial sector in developing countries13Stimulus packages a stark difference from the 1990s US:Tax cuts and priority investments around$800 bn Japan:Three packages-$112 bn Germany:Two packages for infrastructure,tax cuts,clean energy-$106 bn United Kingdom:VAT reduction,capital spending-

13、$27.8 bn China:Infrastructure,housing-$586 bn India:Export incentives,guarantees,refinance facility-$4.1 bnShort-term vs.long-term choices:Countries with low or negative savings need more than sustained fiscal stimulus to emerge from the crisis Countries with high savings rates can combine the short

14、-term fiscal stimulus with a longer-term expansionary policy14 The multiplier effects of the slowdown through the trade system China:Decreased export demand,20 million migrant factory workers without jobs Momentum towards protectionism gains force in crises USA:“Buy American”requirements Russia:rais

15、ed tariff on imported cars India:5%duty on select steel and iron products Argentina and Brazil:approved tariffs on wine and textiles China:increased export-tax rebates on 3,700 goods Protectionism will worsen the global contraction Strong international commitment to resist closing in critical15 Soci

16、al and poverty impact of crises should be anticipated 1%reduction in GDP traps another 20 million people in poverty,100 million more people in poverty with the global recession Millions live very close to the poverty line,so even small GDP changes produce vast swings in poverty Past responses to cri

17、ses ignored poverty impact in the early stages More attention needed to vulnerable groupspotential area for the World Bank Group to contribute Impact on immigrant labor:Foreign and domestic migration,remittances16Tensions between:Short-and long term objectiveseconomic recovery,mitigation,adaptation

18、Domestic and global objectivesglobal public goodsThese tensions increase in crisis periods 30-50%reduction in wind and solar installations in U.S.Support for climate funds under threat in the EU and elsewhereDanger of backtracking on environmental policies17 Early,rapid and sizeable responses are ke

19、y Social safety-net and pro-poor policies need support from the outset Policies need to account for behavior and the political economy Immediate responses cannot ignore implications for development Global crisis needs a global solutiontarget stimuli where the marginal impact will be the greatest*How

20、 to Solve the Global Economic CrisisJustin Yifu Lin,Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,World Bank18Emphasize not only volume,but also quality Focus on poverty from the outsetBuild in the environment and climate changeSeek selectivity and adaptability of response Stress coordination among part

21、ners Focus on monitoring and evaluationOrganize for early warning 19The WBG has a key role through:Financial support Policy advice and knowledge sharingCatalytic role in cross-country policy coordinationHelping to balance national and global goalsLong term partnership with countries,even when its sh

22、are in rescue packages is modest 2021“all consequential events in human history have come from unexpected,rare occurrences”Nassim Nicholas Taleb22Global economic downturn Outlook highly uncertain The timing of the recovery depends critically on policy actions Rising poverty worldwide The situation e

23、xacerbated by growing unemploymentClimate crisis Environmental devastation and global warming can derail all progress This could be an inflection point for our planet A new development paradigm is needed23Brazils fiscal responsibility law;Indias 1991 reforms;Koreas financial sector actions.China rev

24、italized after the Asian crisis Liberalization of the housing market Easing restrictions on privatization of medium SOEs Acceleration of the entry to WTO Investment in releasing bottlenecks-highway,port facility,telecommunication,high education China today Opportunities in human capital;private sect

25、or;openness;infrastructure*New ways of green investments *David Dollar,Sustaining growth:Chinas need for a new growth model,November 19,200824 Opportunity of fiscal stimulus to improve investments Target high growth areasImprove efficiency and raise productivityPromote green investments Opportunity

26、of political support during crisis to reform the domestic economyFinancial and regulatory reformAddress long term macro imbalancesMaintain open trade policiesDeepen social safety-net and inclusive growthBreakthrough in the environment and climate change Opportunity for global actionsInternational re

27、gulatory framework for trade,investment and financeGlobal action on climate,environment and biodiversityThe role of G20,international architecture and Bretton Wood II 2526谢谢观看/欢迎下载BY FAITH I MEAN A VISION OF GOOD ONE CHERISHES AND THE ENTHUSIASM THAT PUSHES ONE TO SEEK ITS FULFILLMENT REGARDLESS OF OBSTACLES.BY FAITH I BY FAITH