耶鲁大学公开课博弈论原版资料(共53页)

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1、Syllabus by (course_default) last modified 10-14-2008 04:00 PM Document ActionsoooooThis course is an introduction to game theory and strategic thinking. Ideas such as dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse se

2、lection, and signaling are discussed and applied to games played in class and to examples drawn from economics, politics, the movies, and elsewhere. ECON 159: Game Theory (Fall, 2007)SyllabusProfessor:Ben Polak, Professor of Economics and Management, Yale UniversityDescription:This course is an intr

3、oduction to game theory and strategic thinking. Ideas such as dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection, and signaling are discussed and applied to games played in class and to examples drawn from econo

4、mics, politics, the movies, and elsewhere.Texts:A. Dixit and B. Nalebuff. Thinking Strategically, Norton 1991J. Watson. Strategy: An Introduction to Game Theory, Norton 2002 P.K. Dutta. Strategies and Games: Theory And Practice, MIT 1999 Requirements:Who should take this course?This course is an int

5、roduction to game theory. Introductory microeconomics (115 or equivalent) is required. Intermediate micro (150/2) is not required, but it is recommended. We will use calculus (mostly one variable) in this course. We will also refer to ideas like probability and expectation. Some may prefer to take t

6、he course next academic year once they have more background. Students who have already taken Econ 156b should not enroll in this class. Course Aims and Methods.Game theory is a way of thinking about strategic situations. One aim of the course is to teach you some strategic considerations to take int

7、o account making your choices. A second aim is to predict how other people or organizations behave when they are in strategic settings. We will see that these aims are closely related. We will learn new concepts, methods and terminology. A third aim is to apply these tools to settings from economics

8、 and from elsewhere. The course will emphasize examples. We will also play several games in class. Outline and Reading.Most of the reading for this course comes from the first ten chapters of Dutta or from the first two parts of Watson. There will be a reading packet for weeks 6-7. The readings are

9、not compulsory, but they will help back up the class material.Grading:Problem sets: 30%Midterm examination: 30%Final examination: 40%Transcript 1 - Introduction: five first lessons by mvd4 last modified 09-15-2011 09:34 AM Document ActionsoooooWe introduce Game Theory by playing a game. We organize

10、the game into players, their strategies, and their goals or payoffs; and we learn that we should decide what our goals are before we make choices. With some plausible payoffs, our game is a prisoners dilemma. We learn that we should never choose a dominated strategy; but that rational play by ration

11、al players can lead to bad outcomes. We discuss some prisoners dilemmas in the real world and some possible real-world remedies. With other plausible payoffs, our game is a coordination problem and has very different outcomes: so different payoffs matter. We often need to think, not only about our o

12、wn payoffs, but also others payoffs. We should put ourselves in others shoes and try to predict what they will do. This is the essence of strategic thinking. Game Theory: Lecture 1 Transcript September 5, 2007Chapter 1. What Is Strategy? 00:00:00Professor Ben Polak: So this is Game Theory Economics

13、159. If youre here for art history, youre either in the wrong room or stay anyway, maybe this is the right room; but this is Game Theory, okay. You should have four handouts; everyone should have four handouts. There is a legal release form-well talk about it in a minute-about the videoing. There is

14、 a syllabus, which is a preliminary syllabus: its also online. And there are two games labeled Game 1 and Game 2. Can I get you all to look at Game 1 and start thinking about it. And while youre thinking about it, I am hoping you can multitask a bit. Ill describe a bit about the class and well get a

15、 bit of admin under our belts. But please try and look at-somebodys not looking at it, because theyre using it as a fan here-so look at Game 1 and fill out that form for me, okay? So while youre filling that out, let me tell you a little bit about what were going to be doing here. So what is Game Th

16、eory? Game Theory is a method of studying strategic situations. So whats a strategic situation? Well lets start off with whats not a strategic situation. In your Economics - in your Intro Economics class in 115 or 110, you saw some pretty good examples of situations that were not strategic. You saw

17、firms working in perfect competition. Firms in perfect competition are price takers: they dont particularly have to worry about the actions of their competitors. You also saw firms that were monopolists and monopolists dont have any competitors to worry about, so thats not a particularly strategic s

18、ituation. Theyre not price takers but they take the demand curve. Is this looking familiar for some of you who can remember doing 115 last year or maybe two years ago for some of you? Everything in between is strategic. So everything that constitutes imperfect competition is a strategic setting. Thi

19、nk about the motor industry, the motor car industry. Ford has to worry about what GM is doing and what Toyota is doing, and for the moment at least what Chrysler is doing but perhaps not for long. So theres a small number of firms and their actions affect each other. So for a literal definition of w

20、hat strategic means: its a setting where the outcomes that affect you depend on actions, not just on your own actions, but on actions of others. All right, thats as much as Im going to say for preview right now, were going to come back and see plenty of this over the course of the next semester. Cha

21、pter 2. Strategy: Where Does It Apply? 00:02:16So what I want to do is get on to where this applies. It obviously applies in Economics, but it also applies in politics, and in fact, this class will count as a Political Science class if youre a Political Science major. You should go check with the DU

22、S in Political Science. It count - Game Theory is very important in law these days. So for those of you-for the half of you-that are going to end up in law school, this is pretty good training. Game Theory is also used in biology and towards the middle of the semester were actually going to see some

23、 examples of Game Theory as applied to evolution. And not surprisingly, Game Theory applies to sport. Chapter 3. (Administrative Issues) 00:02:54So lets talk about a bit of admin. How are you doing on filling out those games? Everyone managing to multitask: filling in Game 1? Keep writing. I want to

24、 get some admin out of the way and I want to start by getting out of the way what is obviously the elephant in the room. Some of you will have noticed that theres a camera crew here, okay. So as some of you probably know, Yale is undergoing an open education project and theyre videoing several class

25、es, and the idea of this, is to make educational materials available beyond the walls of Yale. In fact, on the web, internationally, so people in places, maybe places in the U.S. or places miles away, maybe in Timbuktu or whatever, who find it difficult to get educational materials from the local un

26、iversity or whatever, can watch certain lectures from Yale on the web. Some of you would have been in classes that do that before. Whats going to different about this class is that youre going to be participating in it. The way we teach this class is were going to play games, were going to have disc

27、ussions, were going to talk among the class, and youre going to be learning from each other, and I want you to help people watching at home to be able to learn too. And that means youre going to be on film, at the very least on mike. So hows that going to work? Around the room are three T.A.s holdin

28、g mikes. Let me show you where they are: one here, one here, and one here. When I ask for classroom discussions, Im going to have one of the T.A.s go to you with a microphone much like in Donahue or something, okay. At certain times, youre going to be seen on film, so the camera is actually going to

29、 come around and point in your direction. Now I really want this to happen. I had to argue for this to happen, cause I really feel that this class isnt about me. Im part of the class obviously, but its about you teaching each other and participating. But theres a catch, the catch is, that that means

30、 you have to sign that legal release form. So youll see that you have in front of you a legal release form, you have to be able to sign it, and what that says is that we can use you being shown in class. Think of this as a bad hair day release form. All right, you cant sue Yale later if you had a ba

31、d hair day. For those of you who are on the run from the FBI, your Visa has run out, or youre sitting next to your ex-girlfriend, now would be a good time to put a paper bag over your head. All right, now just to get you used to the idea, in every class were going to have I think the same two people

32、, so Jude is the cameraman; why dont you all wave to Jude: this is Jude okay. And Wes is our audio guy: this is Wes. And I will try and remember not to include Jude and Wes in the classroom discussions, but you should be aware that theyre there. Now, if this is making you nervous, if its any consola

33、tion, its making me very nervous. So, all right, well try and make this class work as smoothly as we can, allowing for this extra thing. Let me just say, no ones making any money off this-at least Im hoping these guys are being paid-but me and the T.A.s are not being paid. The aim of this, that I th

34、ink is a good aim, its an educational project, and Im hoping youll help us with it. The one difference it is going to mean, is that at times I might hold some of the discussions for the class, coming down into this part of the room, here, to make it a little easier for Jude. All right, how are we do

35、ing now on filling out those forms? Has everyone filled in their strategy for the first game? Not yet. Okay, lets go on doing a bit more admin. The thing you mostly care about Im guessing, is the grades. All right, so how is the grade going to work for this class? 30% of the class will be on problem

36、 sets, 30% of the grade; 30% on the mid-term, and 40% on the final; so 30/30/40. The mid-term will be held in class on October 17th; that is also in your syllabus. Please dont anybody tell me late - any time after today you didnt know when the mid-term was and therefore it clashes with 17 different

37、things. The mid-term is on October17th, which is a Wednesday, in class. All right, the problem sets: there will be roughly ten problem sets and Ill talk about them more later on when I hand them out. The first one will go out on Monday but it will be due ten days later. Roughly speaking theyll be ev

38、ery week. The grade distribution: all right, so this is the rough grade distribution. Roughly speaking, a sixth of the class are going to end up with As, a sixth are going to end up with A-, a sixth are going to end up with B+, a sixth are going to end up with B, a sixth are going to end up with B-,

39、 and the remaining sixth, if I added that up right, are going to end up with what I guess were now calling the presidential grade, is that right? Thats not literally true. Im going to squeeze it a bit, Im going to curve it a bit, so actually slightly fewer than a sixth will get straight As, and fewe

40、r than a sixth will get Cs and below. Well squeeze the middle to make them be more Bs. One thing I can guarantee from past experience in this class, is that the median grade will be a B+. The median will fall somewhere in the B+s. Just as forewarning for people who have forgotten what a median is, t

41、hat means half of you-not approximately half, it means exactly half of you-will be getting something like B+ and below and half will get something like B+ and above. Now, how are you doing in filling in the forms? Everyone filled them in yet? Surely must be pretty close to getting everyone filled in

42、. All right, so last things to talk about before I actually collect them in - textbooks. There are textbooks for this class. The main textbook is this one, Duttas book Strategy and Games. If you want a slightly tougher book, more rigorous book, try Joel Watsons book, Strategies. Both of those books

43、are available at the bookstore. But I want to warn everybody ahead of time, I will not be following the textbook. I regard these books as safety nets. If you dont understand something that happened in class, you want to reinforce an idea that came up in class, then you should read the relevant chapt

44、ers in the book and the syllabus will tell you which chapters to read for each class, or for each week of class, all right. But I will not be following these books religiously at all. In fact, theyre just there as back up. In addition, I strongly recommend people read, Thinking Strategically. This i

45、s good bedtime reading. Do any of you suffer from insomnia? Its very good bedtime reading if you suffer from insomnia. Its a good book and whats more theres going to be a new edition of this book this year and Norton have allowed us to get advance copies of it. So if you dont buy this book this week

46、, I may be able to make the advance copy of the new edition available for some of you next week. Im not taking a cut on that either, all right, theres no money changing hands. All right, sections are on the syllabus sign up - sorry on the website, sign up as usual. Put yourself down on the wait list

47、 if you dont get into the section you want. You probably will get into the section you want once were done. Chapter 4. Elements of a Game: Strategies, Actions, Outcomes and Payoffs 00:09:40All right, now we must be done with the forms. Are we done with the forms? All right, so why dont we send the T

48、.A.s, with or without mikes, up and down the aisles and collect in your Game #1; not Game #2, just Game #1. Just while were doing that, I think the reputation of this class-I think-if you look at the course evaluations online or whatever, is that this class is reasonably hard but reasonably fun. So

49、Im hoping thats what the reputation of the class is. If you think this class is going to be easy, I think it isnt actually an easy class. Its actually quite a hard class, but I think I can guarantee its going to be a fun class. Now one reason its a fun class, is the nice thing about teaching Game Th

50、eory - quieten down folks-one thing about teaching Game Theory is, you get to play games, and thats exactly what weve just been doing now. This is our first game and were going to play games throughout the course, sometimes several times a week, sometimes just once a week. We got all these things in

51、? Everyone handed them in? So I need to get those counted. Has anyone taken the Yale Accounting class? No one wants to - has aspirations to be - one person has. Ill have a T.A. do it, its all right, well have a T.A. do it. So Kaj, can you count those for me? Is that right? Let me read out the game y

52、ouve just played. Game 1, a simple grade scheme for the class. Read the following carefully. Without showing your neighbor what you are doing, put it in the box below either the letter Alpha or the letter Beta. Think of this as a grade bid. I will randomly pair your form with another form and neithe

53、r you nor your pair will ever know with whom you were paired. Heres how the grades may be assigned for the class. Well they wont be, but we can pretend. If you put Alpha and youre paired with Beta, then you will get an A and your pair a C. If you and your pair both put Alpha, youll both get B-. If y

54、ou put Beta and youre paired with Alpha, youll get a C and your pair an A. If you and your pair both put Beta, then youll both get B+. So thats the thing you just filled in. Now before we talk about this, lets just collect this information in a more useful way. So Im going to remove this for now. We

55、ll discuss this in a second, but why dont we actually record what the game is, that were playing, first. So this is our grade game, and what Im going to do, since its kind of hard to absorb all the information just by reading a paragraph of text, Im going to make a table to record the information. S

56、o what Im going to do is Im going to put me here, and my pair, the person Im randomly paired with here, and Alpha and Beta, which are the choices Im going to make here and on the columns Alpha and Beta, the choices my pair is making. In this table, Im going to put my grades. So my grade if we both p

57、ut Alpha is B-, if we both put Beta, was B+. If I put Alpha and she put a Beta, I got an A, and if I put Beta and she put an Alpha, I got a C. Is that correct? Thats more or less right? Yeah, okay while were here, why dont we do the same for my pair? So this is my grades on the left hand table, but

58、now lets look at what my pair will do, what my pair will get. So I should warn the people sitting at the back that my handwriting is pretty bad, thats one reason for moving forward. The other thing I should apologize at this stage of the class is my accent. I will try and improve the handwriting, th

59、eres not much I can do about the accent at this stage. So once again if you both put Alpha then my pair gets a B-. If we both put Beta, then we both get a B+; in particular, my pair gets a B+. If I put Alpha and my pair puts Beta, then she gets a C. And if I put Beta and she puts Alpha, then she get

60、s an A. So I now have all the information that was on the sheet of paper that you just handed in. Now theres another way of organizing this thats standard in Game Theory, so we may as well get used to it now on the first day. Rather then drawing two different tables like this, what Im going to do is

61、 Im going to take the second table and super-impose it on top of the first table. Okay, so let me do that and youll see what I mean. What Im going to do is draw a larger table, the same basic structure: Im choosing Alpha and Beta on the rows, my pair is choosing Alpha and Beta on the columns, but no

62、w Im going to put both grades in. So the easy ones are on the diagonal: you both get B- if we both choose Alpha; we both get B+ if we both choose Beta. But if I choose Alpha and my pair chooses Beta, I get an A and she gets a C. And if I choose Beta and she chooses Alpha, then its me who gets the C

63、and its her who gets the A. So notice what I did here. The first grade corresponds to the row player, me in this case, and the second grade in each box corresponds to the column player, my pair in this case. So this is a nice succinct way of recording what was in the previous two tables. This is an

64、outcome matrix; this tells us everything that was in the game. Okay, so now seems a good time to start talking about what people did. So lets just have a show of hands. How many of you chose Alpha? Leave your hands up so that Jude can catch that, so people can see at home, okay. All right and how ma

65、ny of you chose Beta? Theres far more Alphas - wave your hands the Betas okay. All right, theres a Beta here, okay. So it looks like a lot of - well were going to find out, were going to count-but a lot more Alphas than Betas. Let me try and find out some reasons why people chose. So let me have the Alphas up again. So, the woman whos in red here, can we get a mike to the - yeah, is it okay if we ask you? Youre not on the ru