ScenarioPlanningPPT38

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1、SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Institutewww.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain timesScenario PlanningSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukAgenda Principles Generating scenarios A scenario project Organising a sc

2、enario workshopSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukPredicting the future Niels Bohrsaid“Predictingisverydifficult,especiallyifitsaboutthefuture.”A mayor in early twentieth century Pennsylvania “Icanforeseethedaywhentherewillbeoneof

3、these(atelephone)ineverytown”Conservative political thinker Edmund Burke “Youcanneverplanthefuturebythepast”SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukForecasting the futureToday Trends RangeOfUncertaintiesTiming?Single point forecastSAMI

4、 ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.uk The“consumersole”,an information console that could be in use inthe home by the end of the centurySource:Institute for Scientific Information,1980 Predicting technology futuresSAMI ConsultingSt Andr

5、ews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukPredicting oil pricesSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.uk Japan Foresight Review Foresight started in Japan early 50s Review of accuracy after 25 ye

6、ars Found that accuracy better if for instance:Future of chemistry Consulted chemists plus chemical engineers,physicists,biologists,economist,mathematicians Problems of shared assumptions not made explicit Thinking influenced by todays agenda Now received wisdom to look wide for a range of weak sign

7、als as well as extrapolate current trendsLessons on ForecastingSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWhy forecasts missGovernments less effectivePeople more sensibleTechnologypush doesntProgress?SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management I

8、nstituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukScenarios Scenarios are “an internally consistent view of what the future might be”,“not a forecast but one possible future outcome”ProfessorMichaelPorter,HarvardBusinessSchoolForecasts ScenariosForecasts and ScenariosSAMI Consulting

9、St Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukMemories of the Future Ingvar,a neurobiologist found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are asleep These“memories of the future”act as a filter to extr

10、aneous signals.one role for models is to provide a context for these explorations Scenarios provide several alternative model futures for the brain to explore increases the ability of the brain to perceive,speeds the response.Scenarios can increase the range of “what we have experienced”and“what is

11、relevant to our future”.SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.uk“843”trendsAlternateIdeas&PortfolioEarly indicatorsinterconnected futuressystems management TimescalesPlanning Decisions Resources Scenarios and decisionsHorizon Scenarios

12、 Strategy Decision ImplementationScanningmakerSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukAgenda Principles Generating scenarios A scenario project Organising a scenario workshopSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decision

13、s in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukGenerating scenarios Why?Should we use scenario planning Public sector,private sector When?Are they useful&when not Single dominant factor Connection to decisions/implementation Who?Should take part Insiders,outsiders What?Results might we expect decisions

14、 How?Do we generate scenarios 5 stepsSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWhy use scenarios?Public sector ECs High Level Expert Group on Converging Technologies Create common language Health&Safety Executive Get ahead of public atti

15、tudes Private sector Shell,Erste Allgemeine Versicherung Anticipate geopolitical futures Arup,BP Test strategic plan against possible futures Roche,BAE Systems Develop Corporate Social Responsibility policies for different African countries/exposure to the US SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Ins

16、tituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWhen are scenarios useful?To create common language Do not start a scenarios project if There is no decision process in place to take actions When the industry is being affected by a single overwhelming factor When the organisation is

17、in panic mode Do use scenarios To create models which can then be recognised To anticipate change So that plans are in place when they happen To test strategic plans for branching/decision pointsSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.uk

18、Who should take part?Core team Need a team member who has completed a scenario project Links to decision makers e.g Board sponsor Three to six members Balance insiders e.g long time employees outsiders e.g new hires,consultants Get data&insights from web,insiders,competition,regulators etc Core team

19、 often work part-time over several months Very mentally tiring!SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukHow many scenarios?Four scenarios creativity or vision EC,HLEG Three scenarios danger is“middle one is the forecast”Erste Allgemeine

20、 Versicherung,Roche,BAE Systems Two scenarios qualitative differences Shell,Arup More than four difficult for people to see the differences An important aspect of scenarios is communicationSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWhat r

21、esults to expect A set of scenarios Use of STEEP(societal,technological,political,environmental,economic)data to set context Use of qualitatively different worlds within this context Scenarios described depending on audience Comparison tables for Strategic Planners Narrative,story as told by a chara

22、cter in the future for wider use Video,actors for public engagement Organisation alerted to early indicators of scenarios Better decision makingSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWorkshops&projects Workshops to generate scenarios

23、Marketing,based on extensive research before hand Management development,to benefit participants and create shared language results not used After Merger or Acquisition,workshop to explore shared assumptions Workshops using pre-built scenarios,to test or develop strategy Projects to generate and use

24、 scenarios Strategic decision making with time to interview sources of data and insight,develop ideas over a period engage with Board,write up in detail for Strategic Planners,create storylines and video for wider use.SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timesw

25、ww.samiconsulting.co.ukAgenda Principles Generating scenarios A scenario project Organising a scenario workshopSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.uk Project to generate scenariosStartup:QuestionScopeTeamBudgetTimescaleReportingInfor

26、mationExchange LaunchStep 1Month 1Step 2Months 2-4Step 3Month 5Step 4Month 6Step 5Month 7Diagnosis:InterviewsAnalysisSynthesisResearchFeedbackIssues(expert)Workshops:ExternalMarketInternalScenarioWorkshop:TrendsUncertaintiesClustersNamesStorylinesTimelinesOptions:Triage“just do it”More workNoAction

27、planFeedbackTeam celebrateSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukHealth and Safety ExecutiveHealth&Safety Executive(HSE)employees about 20,000 people Responsible for setting standards for health and safety at work Manages high risk in

28、dustries directly(eg oil rigs)Regulates local government enforcement of other industriesHealth&Safety Laboratories had a team of 6 people doing horizon scanningHorizon scanning team did not find it easy to communicate with the BoardWorked with experienced consultants SAMI and Infinite Futures to dev

29、elop scenarios Presented scenarios at HSE conferenceUse scenarios to drive new thinking about the role of the Health and Safety ExecutiveSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 1:StartupQuestion:What is the shape of society and go

30、vernment by 2020 and what effect will this have on health and safety at work?Scope:UK,2020Team:HSL horizon scanning team(6),Wendy Schultz(Infinite Futures),Gill Ringland,Adrian Davies,Martin DuckworthBudget:50,000(for consultants)Timescale:May 2006 to December 2006Reporting:HSE sponsor,through to Bo

31、ardInformation Exchange:Used a software tool called basecamp to share informationLaunch:May 2006SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 2:diagnosisInterviews 25 interviews,staffed by 1 HSL+1 consultantAnalysis Captured in a workbo

32、ok,Takes each thought from each interview and categorizes it as external,competition,internal e.g globalisation external factorSynthesis Decide on most important factors:eg,work/life balance,attitude to risk(26 issues)Also events(eg Olympics 2012)which will change attitudesResearch HSL team establis

33、hed data to support(or otherwise)all 26 major issuesFeedback Short paper to the Board on progressSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 3:Consult experts HSL team researched all 26 major issues Some could be foreacst and could be

34、 built into the scenarios eg increase in disruptive technologies eg increase in average age in the UK(even allowing for immigration)Others were open questions eg attitudes to privacy and risk eg culture dependency or self reliance eg effect of globalisation on UK Pack for scenarios workshop included

35、 a paragraph on each of the issues,plus a short analysis of possible eventsSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4:Scenario Workshop Invitees HSE wanted to invite influencers from across HSE Also some outsiders Total of 28 peopl

36、e so did most of working in 4 syndicates of 7 to give participants air time Event duration 2 days,all had dinner together over-night Kick-off and introduction to process Board sponsor,also took part throughout Held at HSEs new conference facilities in Bootle,Lancashire Emphasised need for good room

37、dynamics,heat&light,flip charts,water in the rooms,etc SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukScenario Workshop,Day One Syndicates Full Group Scenario matrixScenarios built from Uncertainties in this box plus trends(forecastable)Forec

38、astableYou set up a Forecasting unit totrack these itemsImportantLess importantUncertainReview process Present major issues list(26)Refine list to 15LunchAgree list of 15Discuss issues,Sort on matrix Discuss sorted issues;Agree scenario cross e.g.Good economyBad economySocial tensionSocial cohesionS

39、AMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4:scenario matrixScenarios are built from Uncertainties in this box plus trends(forecastable)ForecastableYou set up a Forecasting unit totrack these trendsImportantLess importantUncertainSAMI

40、 ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4:Scenario crossPersonal responsibility,pro-active adoption of technology,management of riskBlame culture,resistance to new technology,rejection of riskDecreased UK competitivenessIncreased UK c

41、ompetitivenessSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukScenario Workshop,Day Two Syndicates Full GroupReview processScenario cross:Name the scenarios Review HSE Hot Topics-scan data LunchFleshing out the scenarios:(scan data,early indic

42、ators,timelines)Tell the storiesEndBig issues for health&safety in each scenarioWrap-up:whats nexte.g.,Good economyBad economySocial tensionSocial cohesionName?Name?Name?Name?SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4:naming the sc

43、enariosWorked in pairs to brainstorm names each pair chose a scenario to name voting on names Virtue of Necessity Digital Rose Garden Tough Choices Boom and Blame Syndicates to develop storylines for their scenario Early indicators Trigger events Heroes&villains Typical front page in 2020SAMI Consul

44、tingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4:winding up the workshop Syndicates presented scenario storylines Using Google images Sound track Syndicates very competitive!In plenary,brainstormed the big issues for the organisation in each scenar

45、io All scenarios implied changes Brief from Board sponsor on next steps Conference for 120 key influencers Wind-tunnelling workshop Board paper Used electronic feedback form for the event.SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 5:

46、Options Conference participants asked to brainstorm of options what should the HSE do?Common options across all scenarios e g Educating next generation of stakeholders re:emerging risks,risk management-and communication Contingent options depending on the scenario eg Distinguish more clearly between

47、 the roles of enforcer and advisor two brands,if not two organisations(Digital Rose Garden)With SMEs,fiscal incentives rather than sanctions-changing behaviour(Virtue of Necessity)One day wind-tunnelling workshop Test the options developed at the conference against the scenarios Triage into Just do

48、it,Research,BinSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWind Tunnelling ExamplePolicy Option10 year DestinationVirtue ofNecessityDigital RoseGardenBoomBlameToughChoicesFocus efforts on enforcement Become an EnforcementOrganisationEqual

49、or more weight to roles of advisor/educator than to guardian/enforcerSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukTriageShort-termAction10 y DestinationPreparatoryActivityScanningActivity10 y DestinationContingencyPlanning?Low-costPlanning1

50、0 y DestinationResearchProgramme?10 y DestinationReviseScenariosFocusedScanningJust Do ItMixedContingentUnclassifiableSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukNext steps at HSE Actions from the Wind-tunnelling workshop in the Board pape

51、r for February Just Do It actions eg Education in risk Research on eg With SMEs,fiscal incentives rather than sanctions-changing behaviour what is experience elsewhere?Business plan for developing role as adviser by consultancy outside the UK Wider programme inside HSE&its local government partners

52、rolling out the scenarios to promote culture changeSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukSummary Principles of scenario thinking Forecasts Decision making Generating scenarios Why?When?Who?What?How many?How?A scenario project step by

53、 step Gathering the source information Organising a scenario workshop Using the scenarios to set strategySAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Institutewww.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain timesAfter the break and case study lecture we will do a group exercise based on organisations chosen by the class,using the 26 issues from the Health&Safety Executive and creating scenarios for 2020.