Ford战略分析报告－摩根斯坦利

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1、Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress Stephen J.GirskyJanuary 2004DisclosuresAnalyst CertificationAnalyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not

2、 received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report:Stephen J.Girsky.Important US Regulartory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley&Co.Incorpor

3、ated(“Morgan Stanley”).As of November 28,2003,Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1%or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report:Delphi,General Motors,Goodyear Tire&Rubber,Johnson Controls,Magna Intl Inc.,TBC and Tower Automotive.Within the last 12 m

4、onths,Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of DaimlerChrysler AG,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Standard Motor Products and Tenneco.Within the last 12 months,Morgan Stanley,Morgan Stanley or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from After

5、market Technology,American Axle and Mfg.,BorgWarner Inc.,DaimlerChrysler AG,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Standard Motor Products,Superior Industries,Tenneco,Tower Automotive and Visteon Corporation.In the next 3 months,Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment ba

6、nking services from Aftermarket Technology,American Axle and Mfg.,ArvinMeritor,AutoNation,Borg Warner Inc.,DaimlerChrysler AG,Dana Corp.,Delphi,Ford,General Motors,Genuine Parts Co.,Goodyear Tire&Rubber,Johnson Controls,Lear Corp.,Lithia Motors,Magna Intl Inc.,Standard Motor Products,Superior Indust

7、ries,Tenneco,Tower Automotive,United Auto Group and Visteon Corporation.The research analysts,strategist,or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of the research report have received compensation based upon various factors,including quality of research,investor client feedb

8、ack,stock picking,competitive factors,firm revenues and investment banking revenues.Morgan Stanley&Co.Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Aftermarket Technology,Delphi,Dura Automotive,Ford,General Motors,Magna Intl.,TBC and Tower Automotive.Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of Decemb

9、er 31,2003)(Continued)Coverage Universe Investment Banking Client(IBC)Stock Rating CategoryCount%of totalCount%of total IBC%of Rating CategoryOverweight592322413841Equal-Weight856462874634Underweight402229816Total1,850 626DisclosuresDisclosuresMorgan Stanley is involved in many businesses that may r

10、elate to companies mentioned in this report.These businesses include specialized trading,risk arbitrage and other proprietary trading,fund management,investment services and investment banking.Morgan Stanley makes every effort to use reliable,comprehensive information,but we make no representation t

11、hat it is accurate or complete.We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change apart from when we intend to discontinue research coverage of subject company.Reports prepared by Morgan Stanley research personnel are based on public information.Facts and views pres

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17、anish regulations;in the United States by Morgan Stanley&Co.Incorporated and Morgan Stanley DW Inc.,which accept responsibility for its contents;and in the United Kingdom,this publication is approved by Morgan Stanley&Co.International Limited,solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Se

18、rvices and Markets Act 2000.Private U.K.investors should obtain the advice of their Morgan Stanley&Co.International Limited representative about the investment concerned.The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners.Third-party data providers make no w

19、arranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy,completeness,or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data.The Global Industry Classification Standard(GICS)was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI

20、 and S&P.This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted,sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley.Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.OverviewAuto Outlook:Same problems;Less of themGlobal Dilemma:Most participants spending for gr

21、owth yet the industry does not grow.Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery.Competitive pressures are likely to remain difficult.Weaker dollar could level provide some offset.Higher rates create risk of weaker demand,weaker mix and lower finance company earnings.Big Three oppo

22、rtunity:Actual quality is better than perceived quality.Global Light Vehicle Sales:Slow GrowthCAGR 1.2%Source:LMCJ.D.Power&Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Sales Forecasts:2003-2004Source:Global Insight&Morgan Stanley Research*Note forecasts are derived from Global Insight(in MM units)2003E2004E%ChngNo

23、rth America16.716.80.6%Western Europe14.114.20.7%Japan5.65.71.8%Korea*1.51.52.7%South America2.82.93.6%India*0.80.913.5%China1.92.425.0%Global Light Vehicle Sales ForecastU.S.Sales16.7mm UnitsFY03E16.8mm UnitsFY04ESource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchJapanese SAAR5.6mm UnitsFY03E5.7mm UnitsFY04ESo

24、urce:Morgan Stanley ResearchWestern European SAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource:Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Excess Capacity at 25%-30%or 20mm unitsSource:Autofacts&Morgan Stanley ResearchCapEx/D&A FY2003E:OEMs Spending for GrowthSource:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research*Adjusted to fit scale0%50%1

25、00%150%200%250%KiaHyundaiNissanBMWMazdaHondaMitsubishiRenaultFordVWDCXPSAFIATToyotaGMZero Sum GameGlobal Dilemma:Most participants are spending for growth,yet the industry does not grow.Slow growth&excess capacity suggest deflation/revenue pressures are likely to continue.Not everybody can be a winn

26、er.Winners will be low cost producers who deliver a good product that consumers are willing to pay for.Modest Demand GrowthDemand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery:Auto sales did not weaken materially in the most recent recession and thus,significant pent-up demand was never cr

27、eated.The number of off-lease vehicles is falling sharply fewer consumers are being forced back to a dealer to buy or lease a new vehicle.Extended financing terms are likely to prolong vehicle turnover.Economic conditions appear mixed.Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line DemandSource:Morgan Stanley Resear

28、chVehicle Sales1986-2004Ey=163.56x+13712R2=0.405912,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,0001986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004E(in 000 units)TroughPeak20022003Trendline Growth 1.0%2004ELight Vehicle Sales Cycle:Trough to TroughSource:R.L.Polk,Global Insight&Morgan Stanley ResearchDurat

29、ionMagnitudeStandardStd.Dev.Cycle(yrs)(units)HighLowMean Deviationas%of Mean1961-1966655,097 10,8856,8729,1831,54716.8%1967-1969331,767 11,35210,14710,5896646.3%1970-1974561,563 14,20110,52912,3131,42511.6%1975-1981790,150 14,96610,71012,8791,66012.9%1982-199110139,134 15,79610,32613,9131,96014.1%19

30、92-2004E13203,398 18,08912,79415,6461,59810.2%Weighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs.Sales1 Year Lead Correlation 77.6%Source:Polk&Morgan Stanley ResearchOff Lease Vehicles Begin to DeclineSource:Manheim&Morgan Stanley ResearchFewer Consumers Being Forced Back to the Dealerships2,8903,2753,4523,3032,76

31、52,3832,0002,4002,8003,2003,600200020012002200320042005385177(149)(538)(382)Average Maturity of Vehicle Loans(months)Source:Federal Reserve Board&Morgan Stanley Research30.0040.0050.0060.0070.00Jun-71Jun-74Jun-77Jun-80Jun-83Jun-86Jun-89Jun-92Jun-95Jun-98Jun-01Taking Longer to Establish Consumer Equi

32、tySource:FRB&Morgan Stanley Research($10,000)($5,000)$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000048121620242832364044485256Payment MonthsEquity Value1.9%72 mnths-domestic0.0%60 mnths-domestic0.0%36 mnths-domesticPos.Equity in 44 mnthsPos.Equity in 33 mnthsPos.Equity in 16 mnthsEconomic Conditions Be

33、tter than they were,but still not robustSource:CPI&Morgan Stanley ResearchPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03Interest RatesConsumer ConfidenceGasoline PricesUsed Car PricesEmploymentAffordability Near 25 Year BestNumber of Weeks of Income to Purchase a VehicleSource:FRB&Morgan Stanley ResearchIntense Co

34、mpetitionCompetitive pressures are likely to remain difficult:Capacity growth to continue in 2004.Pricing is likely to remain difficult although a weak dollar may provide a modest offset.Market share pressures to continue as well.NA Capacity Additions,Despite Flat Sls OutlookSource:Company data&Morg

35、an Stanley Research20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80=100,000 unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030Net Increase Of 853,000 Units or Roughly 5.1%of NA sales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai 2356Excess Capacity&More Is On The WayEvery 1%Pt.of Market Share Translates into$1.0bn

36、 in Profits853,000 Units of Added Capacity is 5.1%of NA Capacity,or$5bn in Pretax ProfitsNA Pretax ProfitBig ThreeFY03E(in MM)$1,971Source:Morgan Stanley Research EstimatesRevenue Pressures Worst Since 1970sNew Car CPI vs.Domestic Light Vehicle SalesSource:CPI&Morgan Stanley ResearchY/Y Change in Mo

37、nthly New Car CPISource:CPI&Morgan Stanley Research-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03Price Reductions Pressure ManufacturersEvery 1%Decline in Prices is Worth-$1.0bn at GM-$850mm at Ford-$550mm at DCXSource:Morgan Stan

38、ley ResearchBig Three Market Share Continues to Slide76.0%60.2%61.7%Every 1%Point of Share is Worth Roughly$1bn in ProfitSource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchMarket Share Winners/Losers FY03Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchFY03Gainers%Pts of ShrLosers%Pts of ShrToyota0.8%Ford-0.7%Honda0.7%Mi

39、tsubishi-0.5%Nissan0.4%General Motors-0.4%Hyundai0.2%Chrysler-0.3%Volvo0.2%Volkswagen-0.2%Big Three Share of Sales by Segment:FY-03 vs.FY-02Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley Research-5.0%-4.5%-2.6%-1.9%-1.0%5.0%7.9%-8.0%-4.0%0.0%4.0%8.0%MinivanSport W agonLuxury CarMiddle SUVSmall PickupSmall SUVLuxury

40、 SUVUS Dollar per Euro:Jan 03-PresentSource:FactSet&Morgan Stanley Research$1.00$1.05$1.10$1.15$1.20$1.25$1.301/1/20032/1/20033/1/20034/1/20035/1/20036/1/20037/1/20038/1/20039/1/200310/1/200311/1/200312/1/20031/1/2004U.S.Dollar per EuroJapanese Yen vs.U.S.DollarSource:FactSet&Morgan Stanley Research

41、100110120130 Jan-99 Nov-99 Sep-00Jul-01May-02Mar-03 Strength at 102 per US$Weakness at 134 per US$Strength at 109 per US$Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity:YTD 03Source:Company Data&Morgan Stanley ResearchNote:*Includes Acura,Infiniti,Lexus YTD-03Imp%Dom%OEM*ImportDomesticOEM Totalof Totalof TotalTo

42、yota629,547 935,619 1,565,166 40%60%Honda271,004 880,637 1,151,641 24%76%Nissan235,201 428,380 663,581 35%65%YTD-03Import Domestic Weighted AvgBased on Every 1 OEM*Content Content Content20000Move EqualsToyota100%24%55%$10,914$93Honda100%3%26%$5,165$44Nissan100%20%48%$9,671$82Weaker Dollar Could Hel

43、p a LittleSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchCorrelations Yen/$vs.CPI New CarTime FrameCorrelationJan-81 through May-95-91.1%Jun-95 through Oct-032.8%Global Operating Margins FY02 Source:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research*Morgan Stanley EstimatesExcluding Pension&OPEB Expense for the Big ThreePorscheNi

44、ssanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat16.4%10.6%8.9%8.4%8.1%6.1%5.7%5.0%4.7%4.0%3.8%1.7%1.8%-6.2%Higher Rates Could be a NegativeHigher rates create risk of weaker demand,weaker mix and lower finance company earningsExtended terms suggest longer replacement rates.Every 1%increase

45、in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth$730-750 per vehicle.Auto Finance Terms:Fall 2001 vs.NowSource:FRB&Morgan Stanley ResearchMonthlyAvg AmtMonthlyLoan to Impl PriceAPRMaturity Financed PaymentValueof VehicleAug-016.41%57.68 22,591$($456)91.26%24,754$Sep-015.42%57.20 23,049$($458)92.07%25,034

46、$Aug-022.17%59.44 26,208$($465)96.28%27,221$Sep-022.29%58.40 26,396$($478)96.25%27,424$Oct-022.62%57.24 26,232$($488)95.86%27,365$Nov-023.41%57.16 26,266$($498)95.27%27,570$Apr-032.51%60.06 27,540$($488)97.00%28,392$May-032.40%60.74 27,920$($489)97.33%28,686$Jun-032.93%62.43 26,945$($466)96.82%27,83

47、0$Jul-033.28%62.68 26,129$($454)95.18%27,453$Aug-033.56%63.00 25,407$($443)93.38%27,208$Sep-033.81%63.24 25,663$($449)93.79%27,362$Oct-033.92%63.52 26,067$($455)93.57%27,858$Nov-033.93%62.86 26,306$($464)93.72%28,069$GMAC/FMCC Borrowing CostsSource:FRB&Morgan Stanley ResearchGMACFMCC5 Yr Treasury2.0

48、%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%1Q963Q961Q973Q971Q983Q981Q993Q991Q004Q001Q013Q011Q023Q021Q033Q03Big 3 Opportunity:Actual Quality is Better than Perceived Quality-80.0-60.0-40.0-20.00.020.040.0MercuryInfinitiBuickLincolnChryslerLexusPorscheOldsmobileSaabAcuraSubaruToyotaCadillacNissanJeepSuzukiHondaFordMazd

49、aChevrolet/GeoJaguarPontiacSaturnDodgeIsuzuBMWAudiHyundaiMitsubishiMercedesVolvoVolkswagenKiaRange RoverActual-Perceived Quality GapActual quality perceived quality=share opportunitySource:JD Power,CNW&Morgan Stanley ResearchThe Big Three:Positives&NegativesEach Company Faces Unique Challenges:GM ha

50、s operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fixed legacy costs.Fords share is likely to remain under pressure.While earnings and cost cutting have been strong,cash flow needs to catch up.DCX continues to struggle with its product line.Quality issues,both perceived(Chrysle

51、r)and actual(Mercedes)continue to linger.Big Three Relative Stock Performance:2003Source:FactSet&Morgan Stanley Research60.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.01/2/20032/2/20033/2/20034/2/20035/2/20036/2/20037/2/20038/2/20039/2/200310/2/200311/2/200312/2/2003GMFDCXSPXGeneral MotorsGM still appears to have

52、a variable cost advantage vs.F&DCX and a fixed cost disadvantage.GMs aggressive funding of pension and healthcare have helped to narrow the fixed cost disadvantage.Significant new product launches give GM its best chance of gaining share/reducing incentives in years.GM is going into 2004 with above

53、average inventory.Finance company earnings are likely to decline due to higher interest rates and lower mortgage refinancing activity.GM Market Share35.5%28.0%28.4%Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchU.S.Healthcare&Pension Cost/Unit FY03Source:Company data&Morgan Stanley Research$1,134$601$1,159$

54、814$889$740$1,899$902$1074$185$88GM Pension Funded Status:2003 UpdateSource:Company Data&Morgan Stanley ResearchComponents(in$billions)YE 2002(17.8)Service&Interest Cost(6.0)Labor Contract(2.1)2003 YTD Contribution14.4Dec 2003 Contribution4.150 bps Lower Discount Rate(3.8)18%Asset Returns10.8YE 2003

55、 Forecast(0.4)GM Has Built Inventory in 2003Source:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchInv BuildInv BuildDec 02-Dec 03Dec 01-Dec 02DiffGM175,89671,097104,799F(1,800)161,200(163,000)DCX3,70875,601(71,893)Big 3177,804307,898(130,094)Financial Service Earnings Unlikely to Match 2003Source:Company data&Morg

56、an Stanley ResearchPretax Profit200120022003EGM(in USD mm)2,876 2,969 4,229 F(in USD mm)1,532 2,153 3,153 DCX(in EUR mm)578 964 1,328 GM New/Replacement/Redesigned ProductsSource:Company Data,Wards Automotive&Morgan Stanley ResearchBrandProductIntro DateCadillacSRXSep-03CadillacXLRSep-03ChevroletMal

57、ibu2003ChevroletColoradoDec-03ChevroletEquinoxearly 2004ChevroletCorvette2004PontiacG62004CadillacSTS2004Hummer H-32004ChevroletCobaltJun-05Saab9-52005Ford Motor CompanyEarnings have exceeded expectations.Now cash flow needs to catch up.With the exception of the F-Series,new products are limited unt

58、il year-end,suggesting share pressure is likely to continue.International Operations/Premier Auto Group need to start pulling their weight.Stability in management ranks is important.F Market ShareSource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley Research19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%F vs.GM Cash FlowSource:Company reports&Morga

59、n Stanley ResearchGM vs Ford cash flow 9 mos 03OperatingGMFGM/b/(w)than FordNet Income0.60.10.5D&A5.24.01.2Capx-4.5-5.61.1W/C-0.3-1.41.1Operating excluding timing differences1.0-2.93.9Accured Exp Timing differences*3.41.02.4Total Operating4.4-1.96.3*Pension&OPEB net of payments,warranty/incentive ac

60、crualsF Auto Pre-Tax Profit,1999-2004ESource:Company Data&Morgan Stanley Research(4,000)(2,000)-2,0004,0006,0008,00019992000200120022003E2004EF Geographic Pre-tax Profit:3Q03 vs.3Q02Source:Company reports&Morgan Stanley Research-800-4000400800NAEurPAGOther3Q023Q03F New/Replacement/Redesigned Product

61、sSource:Company Data,Wards Automotive&Morgan Stanley ResearchBrandProductIntro DateFordF-SeriesSep-03FordFreestarOct-03VolvoS40spring 2004FordFreestyle2004FordMustangfall 2004FordFive Hundredlate 2004FordFutura2005F New Product MonitorSource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchDays SupplyChange(30 day r

62、ate)(Year ago)Dec Sales YTD SalesF-Series727211.7%3.9%Freestar/Monterey9981-6.2%-11.7%GM/Ford Outlook;What They SayGM expects markets to grow around the world and their market share to grow in every region.Ford expects profits to decline in North America.They were not specific but suggest cost issue

63、s lingering.GM expects European profits to grow by$300-400mm($500-$700mm pretax)in 2004,while Ford expects profits to grow by$900-1,000mm.It is unclear how this profit growth can occur given the difficult market conditions there.DaimlerChryslerProduct line has been playing defense for some time.Offe

64、nse needs to get on the field.Chrysler faces perceived quality problems.Mercedes has actual quality problems.Affiliate issues may loom large in 2004.Commercial truck business at DCX could be a positive source of earnings for the company in 2004.DCX Market Share12.2%12.8%13.1%Source:Autodata&Morgan S

65、tanley ResearchDCX Car&Lt.Truck Sales As A%of ParentCarsLight TrucksSource:Autodata&Morgan Stanley ResearchChrysler&DCX Operating MarginsSource:Company reports&Morgan Stanley Research-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%19992000200120022003E2004EChryslerTotal DCXDCX New/Replacement/Redesigned Products

66、Source:Company Data,Wards Automotive&Morgan Stanley ResearchBrandProductIntro DateChryslerPacificaMar-03ChryslerCrossfireJun-03DodgeDurangoNov-03Chrysler300CApr-04DodgeMagnumMay-04JeepGrand CherokeeNov-04MercedesM-Class2004MercedesGST2005ImplicationsGM will continue to pursue its“grow our way out”strategy.DCX improved cost structure is keeping it in the game.New product is critical to alleviating revenue pressure.Foreign OEMs are likely to continue to add capacity in NA.Ford likely to be playing