中远集团物流行业及发展趋势研究报告

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1、July,2001COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALSLogistics Services Industry Environment&Trend Analysis-COSCO Comments and A.T.Kearney RemarksThe contents of this document were prepared by A.T.Kearney and may not be used,altered or disclosed to other parties,without the written permission of A.T.Kearney.The info

2、rmation contained in this document has been obtained from external sources which A.T.Kearney believes are reliable.However,A.T.Kearney can make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or projections derived therefrom.8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-fi

3、nal/2Table of Contentsn Executive Summary1.Market Size&GrowthGlobalChina2.Service DemandGlobal TrendsChina Trends3.Competitive EnvironmentGlobalChina4.Regulatory Environment5.Information Technologyn Appendix8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/3Executive Summary8 Point/Final Versio

4、n/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/4A.T.Kearneys definition of the logistics services industryStructuring and managing,on behalf of cargo owners,solutions involving some combination of parts of the supply chain(i.e.transportation,warehousing,(de)consolidation,etc.)8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Ind

5、ustry Outlook-final/5The logistics service industry represent a tremendous growth opportunity,both globally and in ChinaMarket CharacteristicConclusionCustomers are increasingly demanding high value logistics service solutions,requiring global reach and advanced supply chain management capabilitiesI

6、ncreasing demand for global reach and capabilities fuels consolidation as large full service providers are positioning themselves for successChinas entry into WTO is expected to have two main implications-the logistics market will grow rapidly,and competitive intensity will dramatically increaseStro

7、ng IT capabilities is becoming a core capability of logistics services providers and is critical to building a logistics services businessMarket Size&GrowthService DemandCompetitive EnvironmentRegulatory EnvironmentInformationTechnologySource:A.T.KearneyThe global logistics services market reached a

8、n estimated US$190 Bn in 2000.The China market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35%over the next five years8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/6The China logistics industry will be shaped by Chinas entry into the WTO and the subsequent opening of th

9、e market to foreign competitionIndustry Scenario 2006 Rapid increase in M&A activities Key alliances formed within the next 2-3 years Rapid expansion of global players offering sophisticated end-to-end solution,including logistics,transportation and IT Implementation of e-commerce initiatives and in

10、creasing dependence on IT networkMergers,Acquisitions and AlliancesGlobal CompetitorsTechnology The logistics market will grow rapidly Competitive intensity will dramatically increaseWTO EntrySource:A.T.Kearney 8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/71.Market Size&Growth8 Point/Final

11、 Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/8The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$190 Bn in 2000nThe global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$190 Bn in 2000nThe transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$3.8 Trillion in 2000,and is expe

12、cted to grow at an annual rate of 2.3%over the next 5 yearsnThe Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39%over the next five yearsnThe greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport,warehousing,and transport managementnThe g

13、rowth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growthnCustomer electronics,automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in China8 Point/Final Versio

14、n/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/9The China market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35%over the next five yearsnThe China logistics services market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years nThe logistics services industry is sti

15、ll at an early stage of evolution in ChinanThe transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs-indicating a major improvement opportunitynIn Coastal China,demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Sha

16、nghainIn Inland China,the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river regionnGrowth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logistics Favorable macro economic outlook Public poli

17、cy and spending Increasing interest in outsourcing for logistics needs Growing IT and E-business8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/10Market Size&Growth-Global8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/11The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$190 Bn

18、 in 2000Source:Chinainfobank,CSFB,A.T.KearneyGlobal Transportation and Logistics Market Size(2000)Transportation and related activities handled by manufacturers,wholesalers,retailers themselves(e.g.private fleet,private warehousing)Discrete sets of transportation and related services outsourced by m

19、anufacturers,wholesalers,retailers(e.g.public warehousing etc.)Combination of“transportation and related services”provisioned by 3rd party logistics service providersUS$3,800 BnOutsourcedUS$190 BnGlobal transportation and related expendituresGlobal outsourced transportation and related servicesGloba

20、l logistics outsourcing market8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/12US$BnThe transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$3.8 Trillion in 2000,and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3%over the next 5 yearsNote:(1)Asia includes Japan,Hong Kong,Kore

21、a,Singapore and TaiwanSource:Bowersox and Calantone;CSFB;A.T.Kearney AnalysisTransportation and Related Expenditures by Region(2000)Transportation and Related Expenditures by Function(2000)US$BnTotal=US$3,837 BnOthers:-1.4%Asia(1):2.2%Europe:2.6%North America:4.0%915110213969411073125284095610927297

22、06649199620002006E3,4243,8374,389CAGR=2.3%CAGR=2.8%Warehousing$304 BnTransport$2,204 BnOthers$55 BnShipper-Related$20 BnInventory$1,102 BnAdmin$152 BnCAGR 2000-20068 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/13The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$31 Bn in 2001 a

23、nd is expected to grow at CAGR 39%over the next five yearsNote:Asia includes China,Japan,Honk Kong,Korea,Singapore and TaiwanSource:Bowersox and Calantone;CSFB;A.T.Kearney AnalysisLogistics Outsourcing Market in Asia-Gross Revenue(US$Bn)154112826042312316199920002001E2002E2003E2004E2005E2006ECAGR(99

24、-01)=38%CAGR(01-06)=39%8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/14The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport,warehousing,and transport managementTransportWarehousingTransportManagementITSupplementaryLogistic ServicesPurchase OrderManagementLogisticsManagement30%47%48%8

25、5%20%40%39%76%23%2%5%16%of respondents outsourcing 1998%of respondents planed outsourcing 200313%8%Outsourcing by FunctionResourcerequire-mentsComplexityNote:The percentage may not add up to 100%due to rounding Source:Based on several A.T.Kearney studies,including:-Worldwide study comprising 280 par

26、ticipants(automotive 19%,electronics 25%,retail 27%,chemicals 29%)-European study comprising 500 participants(retail 26%,food&beverage 26%,commodities 22%,machinery 12%,automotive 7%,electronics&high-tech 4%)8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/15Outsourcing of non-core business ac

27、tivitiesOrganic growth of transportation markets Increased complexity of global supply chains Recognition by many shippers that supply chain strategy may be a key competitive advantage Willingness to outsource when logistics not seen as core competency Development of superior logistics capability by

28、 a few 3PLs Growth in demand for transportation services expands with international trade growth Globalization of many industries means goods need to move over longer distances at faster speeds with higher reliabilityGrowth in Logistics ServicesSource:UBS Warburg,IDCGrowth DriversDetails12 The growt

29、h of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/16Consumer electronics,automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities

30、 for logistics services in ChinaNote:1.Size of circle relative to segment size in 2000 2.Analysis is indicative onlySource:A.T.Kearney field interviews and researchHighLowGrowth(2001-2006)Remarks Highly market-oriented,need quick response to consumer feedback Manufacturers have to to improve operati

31、on efficiency continuously due to intense competition Relatively high product value and less price sensitive High requirement for timing and reliability of liners High gross margin industry,production cost and logistics account for less percentage of sales Prefer timely feedback from destination por

32、ts,i.e.trade consulting services Automotive supplies involve over 30,000 parts,which need consolidating suppliers to handle logistics Intense competition drives companies to reduce cost,current inefficiency in self-handling leads companies to consider outsourcing services actively High value product

33、s,not very price sensitive,but sometimes decisions are made overseas Packing requirement involves technical difficulties,unwilling to outsource logistics services High profit industry,not very price sensitive High quality requirement for dry,no smell,no leaking containers,hence containerized in fact

34、ory Clearance of cigarettes needs to be done by professional I/E companies or manufactures Large and special shape,therefore the way to put them into containers can impact the number of containers to be used,which directly related to cost-usually done in-house Cost sensitive,firms usually choose les

35、s busy season to get cheaper prices Frozen products and fresh products need to be handled fast with care Other products are low-value and need no special services Low value products,highly price sensitive Lower quality requirement,usually containerized at portsConsumer ElectronicsApparelAutomotiveMa

36、chineryTobacco&LiquorFurniturePrimary GoodsChemicals&MaterialsIndustryLowHighOutsourcing PropensityOpportunity Assessment by IndustryAdd market and trends analysis by industry8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/17Market Size&Growth-China8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Out

37、look-final/18The China logistics services market is still small at US$0.61 Bn,but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 yearsLogistics Outsourcing Market -Gross Revenue(2000,US$Bn)Note:Asia includes China,Japan,Hong Kong,Singapore and TaiwanSource:Bowersox and Calantone;CSFB;A.T.Kearney Estimates0

38、.610.821.111.52.032.743.6920002001E 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006ECAGR=35%GlobalAsiaChina190230.61China Logistics Service Market(US$,Bn)8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/19The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in ChinaCharacteristics Emerging dem

39、and for outsourced logistics services Low value added services such as transport and warehousing are the major type of services outsourced Traditional in-house behaviour being impacted Fast growth of logistics user base and higher requirement for broader services Large number of services providers c

40、ompeting for customers and human resources Most high value added services are free and provided as selling points Logistics outsourcing becomes common practice and an important lever for competition Consolidated service market with a few established market leaders Logistics penetrate in supply chain

41、 and replace traditional business models Global logistics integrators provide one-stop solution worldwide Specialization and close cooperation among global logistics service providers Optimized allocation and integration of resources along the supply chainStageEmergenceGrowthPenetrationGlobalization

42、World Leading(US)China TodaySource:A.T.Kearney 8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/20Warehousing and DistributionTruckingRail Freight Although Heavily Used,Railway Freight Has Long Transit Times and Service Reliability Is Poor Railway Containers Are Not Compatible With Shipping Co

43、mpany ContainersAirlineCustoms BrokerageCourier Limited Presence of Foreign Firms As JV E.G.DHL Sinotrans Regional Segregation in OperationLogistics Center and Freight ForwardingShipping The domestic warehousing market is currently small and over-supplied with basic warehouses providing virtually no

44、 value-added services Some consolidation just started among the large warehousing companies River transportation has declined Most vessels are characterized by low speed and high energy costs Trucking companies are only allowed to operate in restricted regions Government has established 15 Free Trad

45、e Zones and some logistics centers are set up there Inland transportation is handled by domestic freight forwarder who is usually sub-contracted by the international freight forwarder Seven domestic airlines dominate regional operations Designated foreign carriers are given a maximum entitlement of

46、50 tonnes per week Many customs clearing brokerage firms and considerable confusion about roles Customs clearing procedures took at least -1 day previously but expected to be shortened to1 hourThe logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China(continued)Source:A.T.Kearn

47、ey AnalysisChina Logistics Services8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/21Transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs indicating a major improvement opportunity236724856879414%12%23%11%10%Hong KongKoreaChinaJ

48、apanUSLog expenditureLog exp as%of GDPTotal Transportation and Related Expenditures and%of GDP(2000)Note:(1)VAS:Value-added-services(2)Including packaging,admin,information services,ect.Source:Bowersox and Calantone,CSFB,IMF 1997 study;Chinainfobank;A.T.Kearney AnalysisUS$BnChina Transportation and

49、Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function(2000)Total=US$248 BnUS$BnVAS5%Others29%Warehouse24%Transport42%(1)(2)8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/22Demand GrowthIn Coastal China,demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and ShanghaiHighLowHebei,Beijing,

50、Tianjin4 Beijing is the No.1 air cargo center in China.In addition,Beijings hi-tech industry,which needs a lot of air transportation,is developing very fast Over 80%of the volume through Tianjin port are agricultural products,furniture,metal hardware and raw materials,all being low value products.In

51、 addition,most shippers are in poor financial conditions and are very price sensitiveShandong(Qingdao)4 Qingdao has several famous local companies,such as Haier,HiSense,Aukma and Qingdao Beer.They are more quality oriented and less price sensitive Frozen products account for 15-20%of the volume.Qual

52、ity requirements for frozen products are very high in terms of timing and handling care.Hence,frozen products shippers tend to be less price sensitive and more quality concerned Footwear and garments account for significant portion.Some large customers such as Payless Shoes(No.1 customer of COSCO in

53、 volume)requires accurate shipping time and full range of sophisticated 3PL services from P/O management,trade consulting to space booking,warehousing and transportationProvinceLogistics Demand Selected Provinces in Coastal ChinaGuangdongDemand Size5Remarks Major exports are processing of lower valu

54、e-added products no special requirement for logistics quality;Road transportation is convenient,often containerized in factory to reduce cost less need for warehousing/consolidation Electronics industry is booming in Dongguan,which has some leading companies like Huawei potential large profitable cu

55、stomersStrongWeakShanghai(Jiangsu,Zhejiang)5 Shanghai is the fast growing economic/financial center in China,which has some major MNCs such as SGM,Acer,Philips,etc.They are matured customers of logistics services and less price sensitive.On the other hand,to get the deals from them usually needs to

56、involve high level negociation Large companies in Shanghai and nearby areas are mainly JVs of automobile and consumer electronics industry,which have high product value and lower price sensitivitySource:A.T.Kearney field interviews and analysis8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/2

57、3Demand SizeSichuan(Chengdu)Have the 3rd largest distribution center in China,the largest population,and important heavy industry base The logistics industry there has already attracted interest of foreign large shippers like Ikea and investors including Hutchison Whampoa Located in mountain areas,r

58、oad transport infrastructure is inconvenient,so highly relying on rail transportChongqing2 Agricultural products,metal products and motor cycles,which totally account for over 80%of the export volume,are all low-value products,price sensitive and have flat growth Underdeveloped infrastructure,esp.ro

59、ad and rail transportation have limited foreign investments in this region.Cargoes usually transported by barges,which is the cheapest modeProvinceIn inland China,the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river regionLogistics Demand Selected Provinces in Inland ChinaYunnan2De

60、mandGrowthRemarks Most important export industry is tobacco,which has high profit margin,high quality requirement for logistics services,and not very price sensitive Exports for wood,wooden materials and furniture,which accounted for over 30%of export volume before,are largely reduced due to newly i

61、mposed government sanction on cutting treesHighLowStrongWeakSource:A.T.Kearney field interviews and analysisHubei,Yangtze River Region3 Exports are low-value products including tobacco,cotton,chemicals and steel materials Many imports are material for JVs(e.g.Citreon and Dongfeng Cummins),of which d

62、ecisions are usually made overseas Market is very fragmented and shippers generally have small scale/volume No warehouses/piling centers with modern container handling capacity and advanced IT structure are available,can be a potential development area38 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outloo

63、k-final/24Growth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logisticsGrowth DriverImplicationThe Chinese economy is expected to grow at CAGR 7%over the next five years.Increased international and domestic

64、 trade will drive demand for logistics servicesPublic policy and spending supports improvements in Chinas logistics infrastructure,providing opportunities for further expansion of logistics service providers.Capable foreign service providers are limited in business scope by regulation,and their full

65、 entry after WTO will drive the industry toward international best practicesThere is increasing interest among China-based enterprises in outsourcing for logistics services.Overseas businesses are extending their supply chains deeper into ChinaThe fast growing market in online B2B transactions provi

66、des an additional market segment for logistics servicesFavorable Growth Outlook forthe China Logistics Services IndustryFavorable Macro Economic OutlookPublic Policy and SpendingIncreasing Interest in Outsourcing for Logistics NeedsGrowing IT and E-Business1234Source:A.T.Kearney Analysis8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook-final/25The Chinese economy is expected to grow at CAGR 7%over the next five yearsSource:Chinainfobank,A.T.Kearney Analysis2001E2006EProjection of Chinas GDP Growt