互联网传媒行业投资策略：合久必分Vs不破不立.

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1、 JIN金宇 Yu中金公司研究部,执行经理Executive Director, Research Department, CICC互联网/传媒行业投资策略Internet & Media Sector Investment Strategies2003年12月加入中金公司,执行总经理,负责互联网和传媒行业研究。 2008-2010年新财富“传播和文化行业最佳分析师第一名”,证券市场周刊水晶球奖评选“传播和文化行业最佳分析师第一名”。互联网行业研究:电子商务深度研究:结构化泡沫下的投资逻辑,首选平台,移动互联网深度研究:用户为王,决胜生态系;2010投资策略:从战国风云到三国演义传媒业研究:2

2、011年投资策略:先抑后扬,结构化配置;数字出版深度研究:大势所趋,谁执牛耳?;三网融合深度研究:融合还是竞争?;2010年投资策略:万事俱备,待东风转;2009年投资策略:九问九答,传媒板块投资思考;2008年投资策略:内生和外延并重;2007年投资策略:四重奏;2006年投资策略:一个转折,三个热点金宇先生于2004年获中欧国际工商学院(CEIBS工商管理硕士学位,1997年获上海交通大学自动控制学士。Jin YU, Executive Director, Internet and Media analyst. No 1 Ranking media/internet analyst by

3、“New Fortune” and “China security weekly” from 2008 to 2010.Internet ResearchRace for Integrated Platforms: In-depth Research on E-Commerce (2011/05/11; User Is King, Wing On Ecosystems: 2011 Mobile Internet Investment Strategy (2010/09/21; Internet sector strategy: From Warring States to Three King

4、doms (2009/09/15Media Research4Q&2011 Investment Strategy And In-Depth Study On Media Industry M&A Themes(2010/10/18; Seeking Leading Digital Distribution Platforms-Digital Publishing Theme Strategy (2010/07/02; Converge or Compete- An In-depth Study on the Tri-network convergence(2010/02/09金宇 结构19.

5、4%25.7%30.9%36.0%39.7%40.8%22.4%28.1%29.6%27.5%23.1%18.0%13.5%10.0%13.7%15.9%17.1%14.0%13.9%12.4%11.2%9.8%28.3%17.4%17.1%15.8%15.5%17.8%21.4%27.3%4.1%6.0%7.2%7.1%6.5%6.5%6.6%6.3%10.9%9.6%8.2%8.1%8.0% 6.8% 4.1% 3.1%20.3%22.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%20062007200820092010E 2011E 2012E 2013EE-commer

6、ce Online Games Online Advertising MOnline VideoOthersStructure of China internet industry Source: Public data, iResearch, CNNIC, CICC ResearchSource: Public data, Bloomberg, CICC Research值;4.在结构化泡沫行情中,中国互联网企业从美Source: iMeigu, Bloomberg, CICC Research当当优酷奇虎新浪腾讯百度谷歌雅虎网易盛大游戏完美世界搜狐巨人52现价52 Source: Wind

7、, Bloomberg, CICC Research东方明珠Source: Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research 11一般声明本评论由中国国际金融有限公司(已具备中国证监会批复的证券投资咨询业务资格制作。本评论中的信息均来源于我们认为可靠的已公开资料,但中国国际金融有限公司及其关联机构(以下统称“中金公司”对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本评论中的信息、意见等均仅供投资者参考之用,不构成所述证券买卖的出价或征价。该等信息、意见并未考虑到获取本评论人员的具体投资目的、财务状况以及特定需求,在任何时候均不构成对任何人的个人推荐。投资者应当对本评论中的信息和意见进行独

8、立评估,并应同时考量各自的投资目的、财务状况和特定需求,必要时就法律、商业、财务、税收等方面咨询专业财务顾问的意见。对依据或者使用本评论所造成的一切后果,中金公司及/或其关联人员均不承担任何法律责任。本评论所载的意见、评估及预测仅为本评论出具日的观点和判断。该等意见、评估及预测无需通知即可随时更改。过往的表现亦不应作为日后表现的预示和担保。在不同时期,中金公司可能会发出与本评论所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。中金公司的销售人员、交易人员以及其他专业人士可能会依据不同假设和标准、采用不同的分析方法而口头或书面发表与本评论意见及建议不一致的市场评论和/或交易观点。中金公司没有将此意见及建议向

9、本评论所有接收者进行更新的义务。中金公司的资产管理部门、自营部门以及其他投资业务部门可能独立做出与本评论中的意见或建议不一致的投资决策。本评论亦可由受香港证券和期货委员会监管的中国国际金融香港证券有限公司于香港提供。本评论亦可由受新加坡金融管理局监管的中国国际金融(新加坡有限公司(“中金新加坡”仅向符合新加坡证券期货法及财务顾问法定义下的认可投资者及/或机构投资者提供。提供本评论于此类投资者, 有关财务顾问将无需根据新加坡之财务顾问法第36条就任何利益及/或其代表就任何证券利益进行披露。有关本评论之任何查询,在新加坡获得本评论的人员可向中金新加坡提出。本评论亦可由受英国金融服务监管局监管的中国

10、国际金融(英国有限公司(“中金英国”仅向中金英国分类为专业投资者及/或合格对手方的客户提供,本评论并未提供或者打算提供给任何他人使用。中金公司亦可依据其他国家或地区的法律法规和监管要求于该国家或地区提供本评论。特别声明在法律许可的情况下,中金公司可能会持有本评论中提及公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易,也可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行业务服务。因此,投资者应当考虑到中金公司及/或其相关人员可能存在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突。投资者请勿将本评论视为投资或其他决定的唯一信赖依据。截至报告发布之日前十二个月,中金公司或其关联机构为博纳影业、世纪佳缘提供过投资银行服务。研究报告评级分布可从评

11、级标准:分析员估测12个月之内绝对收益20%以上为“推荐”、10%20%为“审慎推荐”、-10%10%为“中性”、-20%-10%为“减持”、-20%以下为“回避”。本评论的版权仅为中金公司所有,未经书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、刊登、发表或引用。Yu JIN 1DisclosuresGeneral DisclosuresThis document has been produced by China International Capital Corporation Limited, which is regulated by China Securities Reg

12、ulatory Commission. This document is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, but China International Capital Corporation Limited and its associated company(ies(collectively, hereinafter “CICC ” do not represent that it is accurate or complete. The information and opin

13、ions contained herein are for investors reference only and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situtaion or needs of any client, and are not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Under no circumstances shal

14、l the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein constitute a personal recommendation to anyone. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this document, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation a

15、nd particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies covered in this document. Neither CICC nor its related persons shall be liable

16、 in any manner whatsoever for any consequences of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.The performance information (including any expression of opinion or forecast herein reflect the most up-to-date opinions, speculations and forecasts at the time of the document s production and publication. Such

17、opinions, speculations and forecasts are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. At different periods, CICC may release reports which are inconsistent with the opinions, speculations and forecasts contained he

18、rein.CICC s salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading ideas that may be inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the recommendations and opinions presented in this document. Such ideas or recommendations reflect the differe

19、nt assumptions, views and analytical methods of the persons who prepared them, and CICC is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this document. CICC s asset management area, proprietary trading desks and other

20、investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or opinions expressed in this document. StructuralSource: Public data, iResearch, CNNIC, CICC Research2002200320042005200620072008200920100%4019.4%25.7%30.9%36.0%39.7%40.8%22.4%28.1%29.6%27.5%23.1%18.0%

21、13.5%10.0%13.7%15.9%17.1%14.0%13.9%12.4%11.2%9.8%28.3%17.4%17.1%15.8%15.5%17.8%21.4%27.3%4.1%6.0%7.2%7.1%6.5%6.5%6.6%6.3%10.9%9.6%8.2%8.1%8.0% 6.8% 4.1% 3.1%20.3%22.0%80%90%20062007200820092010E 2011E 2012E 2013EE-commerce Online Games Online Advertising MOnline VideoOthersSource: Public data, Bloom

22、berg, CICC ResearchSource: iMeigu, Bloomberg, CICC ResearchAmazonTencent Highest for 52 weeksCurrentLowest for 52 weeks4. Under the structural bubble period,Chinese internet companies have benefited经济转型中的机遇与挑战 Opportunities and Challenges in Economic Transformation Investment opportunities under the

23、 structural bubble CICC Top Picks Earning driven Baidu (BIDU.US Tencent (0700.HK Ctrip (CTRP.US Alibaba (1688.HK Upgrading potentials Sina (SINA.US Qihoo (QIHU.US Huayi Brothers (300027.CH J (DATE.US Youku (YOKU.US Huace Film (300133.CH East Money (300059.CH Renren (RENN.US Enlight Media (300251.CH

24、Shunwang Tech. (300013.CH Content-revaluation Bona film (BONA.US Vertical channels Dangdang (DANG.US 7 Media sector investment theory Destruction leads construction Digitalization (Tri-network integration & Digital publication Exogenous value Capital injection, back-door listing or cross-border M&A,

25、 Short-term investment Cultural consumption upgrades Copyright value rising Structural Reform (16th central committee of the CPC Oct. 2011 Endogenous value Steady growth, fair valuation Mid- long term investment Recommendations (Upside potential remains, but current valuations are relatively high ：

26、Video content： CTV Media (600088.CH, Huayi Brothers (300027.CH, Huace Film (300133.CH, Enlight Media (300251.CH, Alpha Animation (002292.CH Internet: East Money (300059.CH, Shunwang Tech (300113.CH, LeTV (300104.CH, Focus Technology (002315.CH Structural reform: CTV Media (600088.CH, Beijing Gehua CATV Network (600037.CH, Topway (002238.CH, Shaanxi Broadcast& TV Net (600831.CH Defensive: Times Media (600551.CH, 、CNS publishing & media group (601098.CH, etc 8 经济转型中的机遇与挑战 Opportunities and Challenges in Economic Transformation