房地产评估与房地产经济学马里兰大学丁成日PPT学习教案

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1、会计学1房地产评估与房地产经济学马里兰大学房地产评估与房地产经济学马里兰大学丁成日丁成日学原则分析国家、区域、社区和邻里对房地产价值的影响nIt helps people to understand what causes fluctuations in real estate activity and how these changes can affect local real estate markets. 房地产经济学帮助人们理解影响房地产市场涨跌以及这些变化又如何影响地方房地产市场第1页/共63页第2页/共63页第3页/共63页Supply of structure对结构（建筑面积）

2、的需求Market prices and net operating income of a property (rent)市场价格和房地产净运营收入（租金）Interrelationship between capital market and real estate market (short run and long run)资本市场和房地产市场的相关性（短期和长期）第4页/共63页Real Estate Market and Market Equilibrium房地产市场和市场平衡房地产市场和市场平衡第5页/共63页第6页/共63页第7页/共63页Capital market indu

3、ced increases in supply, decrease in rents资本市场导致的供给增加，租金降低资本市场导致的供给增加，租金降低The impact of decrease in the market capitalization rate on real estate market第8页/共63页第9页/共63页Supply of landUrban land rent gradient and land priceRelation between urban land price and capital densityLand price and urban land

4、use (spatial structure)土地供给城市土地租金梯度和土地价格的关系城市土地价格和资本密度的关系土地价格和城市土地利用（空间结构）第10页/共63页PQSD第11页/共63页租金是包括如下因子的函数：农用土地价格建筑结构价格区位价格预计区位价格的增长第12页/共63页价格是一个如下因素决定的函数：利率预计租金增长租金支付风险税收体制第13页/共63页Land use efficiency indicated by high-degree of land-capital input substitution土地和资本投入的 相互替代程度, 关系到城市土地使用效率的高低Densi

5、ty Profile with Land Markets土地市场下的城市密度土地市场下的城市密度 空间变化空间变化Paris第14页/共63页CommercialIndustrialResidentialAgriculturalLand use is determined by the highest bidder. Shows economic determinants of land use segregation.第15页/共63页第16页/共63页 City Spatial Form and Growth第17页/共63页 City Spatial Form and Growth第18

6、页/共63页房屋及其房屋市场的特性异质性 （风格， 房间数， 位置， 城市服务等）不可移动性住房消费的变化意味着驻地的变化高的交易成本分割的市场第19页/共63页variation in price change across cities as well as across locality within a citynBuying a house = investment? Maybe. 住房消费？消费的是房屋的属性 （结构，大小，区位属性等)城市间， 一个城市内部不同地理位置房屋价格基期价格的变化相当不同买房不等于投资第20页/共63页),(NLSFP 房屋价格函数P = Housing

7、 price; 房屋价格S = Vector of structure variables;结构矢量L= Vector of locational (access) variables 区位矢量N = Vector of neighborhood variables; 邻里矢量 第21页/共63页),(,NLSfNLSP房屋价格函数)(LfSPWhat is the meaning of this partial derivatives? Marginal prices偏导的意义？ 边际价格Spatial drift of coefficients (marginal prices), imp

8、lying that the cost of one additional room varies across locality.边际价格的空间“漂移”, 如，加一个房间的价格在不同地方是不一样的第22页/共63页房屋属性价格 房地产商开价 市场隐形价格 C B A 居民竞标价格 房屋属性 房屋市场均衡(Rosen, 1974)决定房屋的价格第23页/共63页影响房地产价格的外在因素影响房地产价格的外在因素第24页/共63页1. Impact of Political, Social, and Economic Forces政治、社会和经济力量的影响External Factors of P

9、roperty Markets房地产市场的外在因素房地产市场的外在因素 2. Regional and Community Analysis 区域与社区分析3. Neighborhood Value Analysis 邻里单元价值分析4. Land Use Planning 土地利用规划第25页/共63页 Political Forces influencing Value 政治因素影响价值 Property rights and ownership 财产权和所有权 The fifth and Fourteenth Amendments in US 美国第五和第十四修正案 Federal fi

10、nancing aids and fiscal policy controls 联邦财政补助和财政控制 Rate of interests 利率1.Impact of Political, Social, and Economic Forces政治、社会和经济力量的影响政治、社会和经济力量的影响第26页/共63页 Social Forces influencing Value 社会因素影响价值 Population growth rate (timely and spatially) 人口增长率（时间与空间） Demographic composition (age, race, gender

11、, income) 人口构成（年龄、种族、性别和收入） Housing preference (Housing/per 1000 people) 住房偏好（住房/千人）1.Impact of Political, Social, and Economic Forces政治、社会和经济力量的影响政治、社会和经济力量的影响第27页/共63页 General Economic forces Influencing Value 影响价值的经济因素Gross national product 国民生产总值Per capita income and real wage levels人均收入和实际收入水平U

12、nemployment as a measure of full employment. Correlation between unemployment, property foreclosures, and property tax delinquencies失业率衡量就业水平。失业率，丧失赎回权和拖欠财产税的相关性Personal saving and investments个人存款和投资General business and real estate activity主要商业和地产活动 第28页/共63页State and Regional Forces Influencing Val

13、ue国家和区域因素影响价值 Differentials of policy and law政策和法律差异 Differentials of economic prospective 经济远景差异 etc.等等第29页/共63页减缓涨跌循环nUse economic development policies to attract uses that fit with the regions master plan 使用经济发展政策来引导土地使用， 其方式与强度与区域总体规划相一至第30页/共63页Ability to provide service affects value服务能力影响价值Cr

14、ime rate 犯罪率Fire protection 火警预防Ease of doing business affects value从事商务活动的方便性影响价值Property tax rate 房地产税率Regulatory environment 政策规范环境Liquor license 酒精饮料销售许可Zoning requirements 分区要求第31页/共63页第32页/共63页第33页/共63页第34页/共63页 The Real Estate Market 房地产市场Immobility 固定性Indestructibility 不可破坏性Non-homogeneity 异

15、质性Property dissimilarity imposes special market conditions房地产的差异性形成了特殊的市场条件 2. Regional and Community Analysis区域和社区分析区域和社区分析第35页/共63页 The Real Estate Market 房地产市场Durability of real estate causes mal-adjustments in both supply and demand on a local market level房地产的持续性导致对地方市场供求的不当调整Studying the underl

16、ying forces creating supply and demand for real property研究形成房地产供求的潜在力量2. Regional and Community Analysis区域和社区分析区域和社区分析第36页/共63页 Cause of Urbanization 城市化的结果 City Spatial Form and Growth 城市空间形态和增长 Regional Analysis 区域分析Regional analysis techniques: economic base analysis, regional input-output analys

17、is 区域分析方法：经济基础分析，区域投入产出分析Regional and Community Analysis区域和社区分析区域和社区分析第37页/共63页Population Trends and Characteristics人口趋势和特征 Economic Measures of Community Growth社区增长的经济量化 Land Use Pattern 土地利用模式Regional and Community Analysis区域和社区分析区域和社区分析第38页/共63页 Neighborhood Defined 邻里的定义 The Neighborhood Age Cyc

18、le 邻里单元的周期3. Neighborhood Value Analysis邻里单元价值分析邻里单元价值分析临街土地价值时间成熟期成长期衰退期向次级经济活动转变老化期第39页/共63页Neighborhood Characteristics 邻里单元的特征 Physical features 物质特征 Demographic characteristics 人口特征 Economic influences 经济影响3. Neighborhood Value Analysis邻里单元价值分析邻里单元价值分析第40页/共63页Highest and Best Use Principle最高与最

19、好使用原则最高与最好使用原则第41页/共63页Highest and Best Use Principle最高与最好使用原则最高与最好使用原则ConceptsPresent valueAmortizationValue, capital rate, and rent (Net operating incomerent)Future value (=0)Highest and best use analysis概念现在价值分期偿还价值，资金率和租金（净收益租金）未来价值最高与最佳使用分析第42页/共63页Highest and Best Use Analysis最高与最好分析最高与最好分析The

20、 highest and best use of vacant land闲置土地的最高与最佳使用The highest and best use of the improved site已开发土地的最高与最佳原则第43页/共63页Highest and Best Use Analysis最高与最好分析最高与最好分析Four criteria:Physical possible: size, shape, terrain, capacity, availability of utilities etc.Legally permissible: restriction, zoning, build

21、ing codes, environmental regulations and others laws.Financial feasible: if the project produce an income or return equal to or greater than the amount needed to cover costs.Maximally productive.四项条件：物质上可行：尺寸，形态，地形，容量，服务设施等法律上允许：限制，分区，建筑规范，环境规则和其他法律经济上可行：如果项目产出等于或大于投入最大生产率第44页/共63页ApartmentOfficeRet

22、ail公寓办公零售Cost of construction$1,021,600$928,000 $817,300建设投资Effective gross income有效毛收入$ 265,000$ 200,000$180,000Operating expenses - $ 135,000 - $ 80,000 - $ 69,000运营费用 - - -$ 130,000$ 120,000 $111,000Assuming a 20 year-year life for the building, then PV = the cost of construction, FV = 0, i=1, n=

23、20.Highest and Best Use for a Vacant Lot闲置土地的最高与最佳使用闲置土地的最高与最佳使用第45页/共63页第46页/共63页For Apartment:NOI to land = NOI of total - building amortization cost$10,000 = $130,000- $120,000Site Value:V=R/I = 10,000/0.10 = $100,000ApartmentOfficeRetailIncome to building 10%$120,000 $109,000 $96,000Income to si

24、te$ 10,000 $ 11,000 $15,000Indicated site value 10%$100,000 $110,000 $150,000So Retail has the highest value for the site第47页/共63页Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则房地产更新的最高与最佳原则The alternatives are:Renovate the existing stores, spending $20,000Convert the existing space to o

25、ffices, spending $40,000Demolish and construct a new building不同方案:更新现存商店，花2万美元 改成办公，花4万拆除，建设新办公楼第48页/共63页Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则房地产更新的最高与最佳原则ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNew BlgAcquisition price $200,000$200,000$200,000Renovation cost$20,000

26、 $40,0000Construction cost00$700,000Demolish cost00$ 30,000Total costs$220,000$240,000$930,000The acquisition price will be allocated 80 percent to improvement and 20 percent to land. PV = building costs, FV = 0, i = 10, n = estimated economic life.第49页/共63页 ExistingDemolish, UseConvertedConstruct (

27、retail) OfficeNew BlgBuilding cost (80%) $160,000$160,000$0New construction 20,000 40,000 700,000Total Allocated to $180,000$200,000$700,000BuildingEconomic life 15 yr15 yr20 yrReturn to Building $23,665$26,295$77,118 10%Highest and Best Use of A Property as Improved房地产更新的最高与最佳原则房地产更新的最高与最佳原则第50页/共6

28、3页第51页/共63页ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNew BlgEffective gross income$ 41,000$ 47,000$123,000Operating expenses- 12,000 - 16,000 - 20,000- -Net operating income$29,000$31,000$103,000Return to building 10% - 23,665- 26,295- 77,118- -Income to site$5,335$4,705$26,582Adjustment f

29、or 10% returnOn cost of land acquisition- 4,000- 4,000- 23,000- -Residual income to land as Adjusted residual income$1,335$705$3,582Additional land value createdAt 10% capitalization$13,350$7,050$35,820Total land value created (original purchase + additional) $53,350$47,050$265,820Note: $200,000 * 2

30、0% = 40,000 for the first two cases. The last case: the total land cost becomes the initial purchase plus the demolish cost (200,000+30,000=$230,000)第52页/共63页“Unbalance” of demand for and supply of real estate Different market cycles of different real estate marketsValue change in different segment in market cycle房地产市场供求不均房地产市场供求不均衡衡不同房地产市场的不不同房地产市场的不同周期同周期市场周期中不同部分市场周期中不同部分的价值变化的价值变化第53页/共63页Market Cycle 市场周期市场周期第54页/共63页第55页/共63页第56页/共63页第57页/共63页第58页/共63页第59页/共63页第60页/共63页Toronto Real Estate Markets 多伦多房地产市场多伦多房地产市场第61页/共63页第62页/共63页